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Peak oil debate

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 22 May 2019, 15:41:29

Although I make a point of not cyber engaging in these forums with people of little contributory significance (which is why I greatly appreciate input from those dealing in relevant facts), ol' SL's spew above could be illustrative of why so many on these sites miss so much of what is going on in the real world of LTO.

Does SL know that CNX's senor vice president of engineering and operations (BIG job!) Andrea Passman was let go 2 weeks ago and only publically acknowledged yesterday afternoon?
Is SL aware of the issues on CNX's Shaw pad that are costing the company tens of millions in production costs?
Most pertinently to ANYONE who follows this so called Shale Revolution ... what the fuck does the current HH price of $2.56/mmbtu mean in the context of available supply for, say, the next several DECADES?

Main point being, there is such a vast, vast supply of hydrocarbons - specifically natgas - poised to enter the market that producers are facing longterm challenges.

Just like the guy selling buckets of seawater down at the beach, CNX - along with many other operators - is dealing with resource abundance, not scarcity.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 22 May 2019, 16:28:46

coffeeguyzz wrote:
Main point being, there is such a vast, vast supply of hydrocarbons - specifically natgas - poised to enter the market that producers are facing longterm challenges.

Just like the guy selling buckets of seawater down at the beach, CNX - along with many other operators - is dealing with resource abundance, not scarcity.


Yup.

The huge natgas reserves found in TOS are amazing and have been widely publicized for years. No one should dispute this fact. Obama even boasted in a state of the union address that the USA had a "100y year supply" of nat gas thanks to fracking....and that was only about 5 years ago, so we've got at least 95 more years of nat gas supply to go.....

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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 18:16:52

Oil from a Critical Raw Material Perspective
Geological Survey of Finland
Date: 22/12/2019
500 page PDF
Starting in January 2005, all commodity prices that the World Bank track to monitor the industrial ecosystem (base metals, precious metals, oil, gas and coal) blew out in an unprecedented bubble. The second worst economic correction in history, The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, was not enough to resolve the underlying fundamental issues. After the GFC, the volatility in commodity price continued. This report makes the case that the GFC was created as the entire industrial ecosystem was put under unprecedented stress, where the weakest link broke. That weakest link was in the financial markets. The strain that created this unprecedented stress, was triggered by the global oil production plateauing. This made the oil market in elastic in form. This is postulated to have happened because the Saudi Arabian oil production was unable to increase production in January 2005, in spite a significant increase of operating rig count. If further analysis supports this hypothesis, then the GFC was created by a chain reaction that had its origins in the oil market.

Due to our dependence on oil, it may be the primary, or master raw resource. Oil has a more significant CRM profile (immanent shortage in context of a vital resource) than almost any other raw material supplying industry. It is recommended that oil, gas, coal and uranium are all added to the European CRM list.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Darian S » Wed 11 Mar 2020, 17:34:13

Plantagenet wrote:
coffeeguyzz wrote:
Main point being, there is such a vast, vast supply of hydrocarbons - specifically natgas - poised to enter the market that producers are facing longterm challenges.

Just like the guy selling buckets of seawater down at the beach, CNX - along with many other operators - is dealing with resource abundance, not scarcity.


Yup.

The huge natgas reserves found in TOS are amazing and have been widely publicized for years. No one should dispute this fact. Obama even boasted in a state of the union address that the USA had a "100y year supply" of nat gas thanks to fracking....and that was only about 5 years ago, so we've got at least 95 more years of nat gas supply to go.....

CHEERS!


Is natural gas from fracking different in production peak from oil from fracking? Or does it peak after a few years and drop down to a trickle of production thereafter?

edit: seems like that century will run dry during the first five years going by the following.
Production declines this severe are common in unconventional natural gas wells drilled in shale. If you have a new well or have recently leased your property, it might be a good idea to be very conservative with your long-term royalty expectations
.
Your income from that well is going to fall rapidly at first and eventually decline to zero.


The typical well might yield as much as half of its gas in the first five years of production. Wells might then continue to produce for a total of twenty to thirty years but at lower and lower production rates. Caution with production and royalty expectations is recommended because long-term experience from shale formations in the United States is not available.
https://geology.com/royalty/production-decline.shtml
Last edited by Darian S on Wed 11 Mar 2020, 18:31:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 11 Mar 2020, 18:17:10

Plantagenet wrote: No one should dispute this fact. Obama even boasted in a state of the union address that the USA had a "100y year supply" of nat gas thanks to fracking....and that was only about 5 years ago, so we've got at least 95 more years of nat gas supply to go.....

CHEERS!

A grain of salt should be taken with that figure. For one thing it was for the then current US consumption. We are now using 28 percent more then 2015 and the trend is solidly up.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 09:28:05

please stop spamming every thread with your sheer idiocy. It is one thing to have the mental defect to accept obviously fabricated nonsense as "fact" it is an entirely higher level of mental defect to think everyone here wants to see it time and time again. Confine your nonsense to a single thread or better yet start your own thread so we can all avoid it...maybe call it "I have a stupid idea and want to share it".
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 10:26:47

Amen, but it's not like bochen is the only nut allowed to run free here. That's why the ignore feature exists.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 15 Apr 2020, 20:37:55

EIA has called peak US oil and gas production

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/U ... spots.html

U.S. Oil Drilling Grinds To A Halt At Key Shale Hotspots

Oil and gas production in the United States has peaked and is already in decline.

The latest data from the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report sees widespread production declines across all major shale basins in the country. The Permian is set to lose 76,000 bpd between April and May, with declines also evident in the Eagle Ford (-35,000 bpd), the Bakken (-28,000 bpd), the Anadarko (-21,000 bpd) and the Niobrara (-20,000 bpd).

Natural gas production is also in decline, a reality that occurred prior to the global pandemic but is set to accelerate.

The Appalachian basin (Marcellus and Utica shales) are expected to lose 326 million cubic feet per day (mcf/d) in May, a loss of 1 percent of supply. In percentage terms, the Anadarko basin in Oklahoma is expected to see an even larger drop off – 216 mcf/d in May, or a 3 percent decline in production.

The sudden declines in production illustrates the fatal flaw in the shale business model. Once drilling slows down, production can immediately go negative due to steep decline rates. Shale E&Ps have to keep running fast on the drilling treadmill in order to keep production aloft. But the meltdown in prices has forced the industry to idle 179 rigs since mid-March...

The OPEC+ deal won’t rescue a lot of shale companies. The demand destruction is simply too large for the OPEC+ cuts. With WTI at $20 per barrel on Tuesday, Permian drillers are actually receiving quite a bit less than that...

The WSJ says that oil storage in Cushing, OK could be full by the end of the month, which could abruptly force production shut ins in Oklahoma and Texas.

That suggests the EIA estimate for a decline in U.S. shale production of 183,000 bpd in May could be optimistic.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 00:53:37

rockdoc123 wrote:... "I have a stupid idea and want to share it".


:roll: 8) :lol: :) :P

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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 01:05:22

The EIA is predicting US oil production will peak next month (MAY 2020).

-us-oil-production-to-peak-next-month-eia

The drop in US oil production is being driven by cheap oil prices.....and the low oil prices are directly caused by Saudi and Russia opening the oil spigots.

Right now we see the crazy situation of the US Navy patrolling the strait of Hormuz and the Gulf to protect Saudi oil shipments which are flooding the market and driving US oil producers out of business.

Why should the US continue to spend its treasure protecting Saudi Arabia when Saudi Arabia is doing its best to destroy the shale oil business in the United States?

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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 03:34:20

I don't think a US oil peak is a bad thing really. Fracking is dirty and destructive. It is useful to keep a cap on world oil prices and drops off as a floor to decline, unless you have a pandemic that drops the floor even more. Economically it is naturally more economic at higher prices once the bad debt of the gold rush years is cleared out. It can fire up quickly if needed. The US was coming on strong with renewables before the virus. It is likely some of that will continue. IMO the virus demand shock along with a building debt driven recession from the last decade will put economic growth on an unsound footing or worse. Globalism appears to be in decline with shorter value chains meaning less economies of scale knocking on to less activity. That is a personal observation of course. If these variables are taken together, we may see less need for fossil fuels in the US. This means Peak Oil was more Peak Demand driven than production issues although shale production growth was set to slow becuase of logistics and fewer economic sweet spots. Considering the need to lower carbon emissions this should be a good thing.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 03:39:18

U.S. Oil Crashes Below $20 On Record Demand Plunge

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... e.amp.html
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Revi » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 08:38:07

Oil seems to keep going down, despite cuts, etc.

We are seeing how it works out, in real time.

We're watching the peak and the descent right now.

As a poet once said, it ends not with a bang, but with a whimper...
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 10:36:06

Wake me when we have gas lines again, and even then I won't care because I drive an EV.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Revi » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 09:42:26

asg70 wrote:Wake me when we have gas lines again, and even then I won't care because I drive an EV.


I don't know when they will happen. Demand has fallen by half in the US, and the planes are out of the sky, so there is going to be reduced demand for this year at least.

It doesn't look like next year will catch up either.

The advent of lots of new electric cars will change things as well. Autonomous electric vehicles will spell the end of the internal combustion dynamic we have become used to. Why own a car when you can use your cell phone to have one show up when you need it?
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 10:00:56

asg70 wrote:Wake me when we have gas lines again, and even then I won't care because I drive an EV.



Like an EV is going to save you. Your EV won't get you very far when it breaks and needs repairs but those repairs are not assured if there is economic problems and or gas lines. EV's LOL
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 10:48:40

REAL Green wrote:Like an EV is going to save you. Your EV won't get you very far when it breaks and needs repairs but those repairs are not assured if there is economic problems and or gas lines. EV's LOL


I get it. You're a hard-crash doomer. (I find this quaint insofar as there are very few of your kind left in the wild.) As a hard-crash doomer you can set the goalposts wherever you like in order to present a game-over scenario for anyone who uses anything more sophisticated than stone knives and bearskins. But excuse me for not thinking things will get that bad in the short to medium-term. And BTW, if it DOES get that bad then even perfectly self-contained doomsteads will become a target for the eventual mutant zombie biker gangs. So don't fool yourself into thinking you've got things solved just because you know how to use a hand grain mill.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 10:54:11

NG is down to $1.88. That is not enough to pay for the drill bits.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 11:00:15

Revi wrote:[ Why own a car when you can use your cell phone to have one show up when you need it?

Oh sure hop into a car somebody you don't know just took a ride to the doctors in? No thanks. The Uber ride app has just had it's teeth kicked in.
Your future ride maybe a self driving vehicle but it will be yours alone not shared with strangers.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 13:52:42

Why own a car when you can use your cell phone to have one show up when you need it?


Why pump oil at all when it can be purchased for $18 dollars. The US sure picked the wrong time to become the world's largest producer. The $trillions spent to produce that oil would have purchased about a 100 years of supply at today's prices. It is interesting that little is being said in the news about the distress in the oil sector. If the FED tries to prop it up, it will go broke. Oil has a built in 63 to 1 leverage, which works in both directions.
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