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MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 03 Mar 2020, 04:48:22

WTI 48.05

First came the breakdown of the support line.
Now comes the retest of that line.
Then comes the rejection of that line?
Then comes the crash?

We should see WTI 50 today or tomorrow.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESB2dJ1WkAQ ... name=large
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Tue 03 Mar 2020, 08:40:06

Charts don't predict anything but that doesn't stop doomers from trying to use them for that purpose.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Baduila » Wed 04 Mar 2020, 15:41:42

Image

Before we forget the etp-map, here it is again.

OPEC is struggling to stabilize the oil price - but the line of demand destruction drops and drops.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 04 Mar 2020, 18:17:52

Baduila wrote:Image

Before we forget the etp-map, here it is again.

OPEC is struggling to stabilize the oil price - but the line of demand destruction drops and drops.

In the real world, the blue line is accelerating away from the WTI price, over time, since the ETP MAP is failing over time.

And that's even WITH the recent WTI price drop from the COVID-19 scare. And clearly THAT wasn't in shorty's calculations, which were all about the system "collapsing", oil drilling not being "sustainable", etc.

Spin it all you want -- failing is failing.

What fairy tales will you be relying on in late 2021 when the WTI MAP is supposed to be about $2, according to shorty's MAP predictions?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 05 Mar 2020, 12:11:27

I try to clarify the naming, especially for you, using "ETP-MAP theory" and "ETP-MAP reality".

Image

No, shorty did not foresee in 2013 that the COVID-19 crisis the world hits in 2020. But he has foreseen, that a lot of crisis will come. And we know, that most type of crisis will drive the oil price down.

OPEC+ has decided to reduce the oil production in a desperate act to stabilize the price. Some of the OPEC+ members did not want follow the decision because they want to finalize the frackers. But they are rescued this time.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Mar 2020, 13:07:52

Baduila wrote:No, shorty did not foresee in 2013 that the COVID-19 crisis the world hits in 2020. But he has foreseen, that a lot of crisis will come. And we know, that most type of crisis will drive the oil price down.

OPEC+ has decided to reduce the oil production in a desperate act to stabilize the price. Some of the OPEC+ members did not want follow the decision because they want to finalize the frackers. But they are rescued this time.

Rubbish. Shorty didn't see anything. The price of oil has been all over the place, and is basically unforseeable (like the details of the future), largely due to tech. changes that almost no one imagines ahead of time.

Pretending that what is happening this week or month validates the MAP when it is already WAY off and getting much worse over time is mighty weak sauce -- but of course, that's all you have to cling to.

Oh, and big picture, how is "a lot of crisis" a very steady trend over time of more and more and more global oil production, despite all his calls for "collapse", unsustainable oil, the world can't afford oil, yadda yadda?

Hint: The world isn't flat just because a group of math and science denying conspiracy theorists vehemently insist it is by arm waving at ridiculous claims. Same goes for ETP and oil in the real world.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 05 Mar 2020, 15:17:15

Not that long ago wasn't the discussion all about the strike against the Saudi facilities that shut down oil production? How does that fit in with the idea that every crisis drives oil prices down?

Really, this board is now nothing but a psychological case study in people applying mental body-english to every current event to validate their predefined view of the future.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 01:10:02

The WTI USD 28.85

Break, retest, rejection and crash.

The central banks are losing control as everything is breaking down.

It still unreal.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 07:19:27

Well, the MAP is now really going to be tested. Conventional theory woukd have the oil price shoot up soon as demand probably will pick up some soon and meanwhile a supply glut will have developed. But if ETP is truly right, not enough net energy to keep demand and the Economy strong so instead the oil price will stay the same or get lower. As Short said we are approaching the Dead State
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Baduila » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 10:10:07

Image

WTF: Wishful Thinking
CNV: Conventional thinking
OPO: Old Peak Oilers
ETP: You know it

THere will be no shoot up.
This graph shows, that the current oil price is too high for China (and most other countries but USA and Germany).
Covid-19 is responsible only for the last small drop. The decay of car production and oil price starting 2018 will continue after Covid-19 has disappeared.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Baduila » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 10:30:39

Replace "Current Price" by "price of 50-55 $/bbl". 30 $/bbl is okay for china.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 20:09:05

Baduila wrote:Image

WTF: Wishful Thinking
CNV: Conventional thinking
OPO: Old Peak Oilers
ETP: You know it

THere will be no shoot up.
This graph shows, that the current oil price is too high for China (and most other countries but USA and Germany).
Covid-19 is responsible only for the last small drop. The decay of car production and oil price starting 2018 will continue after Covid-19 has disappeared.

Updating nonsense with more nonsense doesn't make you clever.

But continue on, as no doubt you will.

In the real world, the economy will persist beyond 2021, despite shorty's claims. Even WITH COVID-19 having wreaked havoc. Just imagine how well it would have done without that UNPREDICTABLE event.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 17 Mar 2020, 14:28:52

WTI 27.15
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 17 Mar 2020, 19:21:31

onlooker wrote:if ETP is truly right, not enough net energy to keep demand and the Economy strong so instead the oil price will stay the same or get lower.


ETP is all about creating a false correlation = causation linkage. This event is chum in the water for that phenomenon but it's not particularly compelling. Coronavirus is the epitome of an above-ground black-swan. It's got nothing to do with the underlying net energy of fossil fuels, just as the credit crisis before it didn't.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 03:58:31

Petroleum's EROEI has been falling off a cliff since 2000. The exploding global debt ratio to world GDP is a symptom of the EROEI decline.

The world won't be able to deal with this black swan event. The system will breakdown.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Baduila » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 04:59:25

Image

On Dec, 12, 2019 i have shown the same diagram with less data, and mentioned that the clash of the two dotted lines will lead to something unpredictable.

mid-year-etp-map-update-t74464-500.html#p1435583

Now we have all the effects expectable from the ETP model, but a little bit faster:
Closing of auto fabs, closing of air traffic, delay of ship traffic, and a looming crash of the financial system. The black swan has landed.

Read here:
https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/up ... _EN_09.pdf
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 07:46:05

Yes, a perfect storm is dragging the Economy down to the Nadir.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 08:30:23

WTI 23.80

Unreal
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 09:41:30

Yoshua wrote:The exploding global debt ratio to world GDP is a symptom of the EROEI decline.


Prove it.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby BahamasEd » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 10:35:01

Back to the Future

I have this weeks ETP-MAP price at $23.76 on it's way to $12.37 come the end of the year.

Current price $23.41 at 11:30am EST
The total energy cost of producing and delivering a gallon of gasoline to the end consumer must be less than the energy in a gallon of gasoline for it to be commercially viable.
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