[Dybbuk]

Isn't it obvious now?

The price is crashing because demand is crashing, because we're entering a depression due to COVID-19 dislocations.

When demand crashes, production crashes.

When/if production trends back up, it's never going to get back to where it was.

We're entering a world of new values, where we recognize insatiable consumerism as unsustainable and empty.

[rockdoc123]

either you are one of Shorts sock puppets or you have been asleep for the last week.
Pay attention....Saudi Arabia and Russia could not agree on production cuts, Russia walked away from the table and one day later SA lowered the price on all of their oil for shipment and the next day announced plans to increase spare capacity to 13.5 MMB/d. That is an increase in supply not an decrease in demand.

[Plantagenet]

There is both a decrease in demand AND an increase in supply.

Chinese oil imports dropped by 80% due to the Wuhan virus. That put a very significant dent into global oil demand. Now western economies are also slowing, further inhibiting oil demand.

At the same time, the Saudis and the Russians are flooding the market with oil.

The result? A dramatic drop in oil price.

I doubt this marks a permanent peak in oil production, unless the Saudis are able to drive the US shale oil producers into bankruptcy.

Most likely when the virus has done its worst the economy will enter a recession and then recover and continue to grow and oil demand and supply will continue to grow as well, at least for a while longer.

CHEERS!

[Pops]

When/if production trends back up, it's never going to get back to where it was.

What you said was obvious, to here. Why, if production can trend back up would it never get back to where it was?

We're entering a world of new values, where we recognize insatiable consumerism as unsustainable and empty.

LOL, that party is actually funny.
Insatiability is what got Homo to where he is, it's in us, it is us.
Not sure how we get it out.

[rockdoc123]

There is both a decrease in demand AND an increase in supply.

there was potential for decrease in demand for oil but the effects of China and Italy were already layered into the price by early March. This is why Russia and SA met in the first place as an attempt to try and raise prices. When that fell through SA took the opposite approach and flooded the market partially to get Russia in line but mainly because this was an opportune time to deal a devastating blow to US tight oil activities. The price fall on Monday from ~$46/bbl to a low of $32/bbl was all to do with the actions of SA whereas the prior very slow drop from ~$55/bbl to $46/bbl was a consequence of a predicted temporary decrease in demand. Note that following the drop to $32/bbl airlines were heavily impacted by the US ban on travel which should have a direct impact on demand temporarily....there was no additional decrease in oil price, the SA initiative having done enough damage by putting supply well above forecast demand. If SA and Russia were to come to a deal we would see oil immediately rebound back into the $45 range where it would bounce around for sometime until traders could get their heads around the actual impact of the virus on demand in various sectors.

[amberelle]

I tried to find existing discussions about November 2018 C+C peak but I'm lamer or luser so dint wrk. Feel free to merge this thread, no worries.

Mostly I can't find anything about November 2018 C+C peak in consensus media although Google Bard will "chat" about it as if it's a thing.

How can the November 2018 C+C peak which is almost five years old be off of most people's radar?

[amberelle]

I made a YT video that shows how to operate the EIA website and get it to download the C+C global production rates.

How to see Peak Oil (3 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQlUBvYHQt4

[Tanada]

I tried to find existing discussions about November 2018 C+C peak but I'm lamer or luser so dint wrk. Feel free to merge this thread, no worries.

Mostly I can't find anything about November 2018 C+C peak in consensus media although Google Bard will "chat" about it as if it's a thing.

How can the November 2018 C+C peak which is almost five years old be off of most people's radar?

I tracked down the existing thread and merged it in so you can see what others had to say on the topic. Personally I think it is too soon to declare 11/2018 the ultimate peak as Covid and economic factors have suppressed world oil demand substantially. I don't know how much life experience you have had but in the early 1980's the economic doldrums and the massively high interest rates, much like those we are experiencing now, suppressed crude oil demand for almost eight years before demand exceeded 1978 levels. I suspect we are repeating the same phenomenon right now but I could certainly be mistaken. Having joined this website all the way back in 2005 I have made a number of peak predictions which each and every time turned out to be wrong. I am a stubborn person but at this point I am withholding judgement until demand exceeds supply for a sustained period.

[amberelle]

Hello to you!

Thanks for your reply. I do appreciate you.

Just some nitpicks:

Having joined this website all the way back in 2005

.
I watched The End of Suburbia in 2004 which is how I got started on Peak Oil.

suppressed crude oil demand

I wrote asking about production, not demand. Using the web site shows that 1980 C+C global production was not exceeded until 1989.

In 1979 war disrupted production. When exactly did the pandemic start affecting oil production (or even demand)? Did pandemic-related global C+C production disruption start in 2018? Did the pandemic exist then?

[amberelle]

Peak Oil analysis process:

1. Ignore M. King Hubbert as he wrote about oil production and the only thing that matters is demand.

2. Blame the pandemic for issues that came before the pandemic started

"It's a poor sort of memory that only works backwards," the Queen remarked.

"What sort of things do you remember best?" Alice ventured to ask.

"Oh, things that happened the week after next," the Queen replied in a careless tone. "For instance, now," she went on, sticking a large piece of plaster on her finger as she spoke, "there's the King's messenger. He's in prison now, being punished: and the trial doesn't even begin till next Wednesday: and of course the crime comes last of all."

"Suppose he never commits the crime?" said Alice.

"That would be all the better, wouldn't it?" the Queen said, as she bound the plaster around her finger with a bit of ribbon.

Alice felt there was no denying that. "Of course it would be all the better," she said; "but it wouldn't be all the better his being punished."

"You're wrong there, at any rate," said the Queen: "were you ever punished?"

"Only for faults," said Alice.

"And you were all the better for it, I know!" the Queen said triumphantly.

"Yes, but I had done the things I was punished for," said Alice; "that makes all the difference."

"But if you hadn't done them," the Queen said, "that would have been better still; better, and better, and better!" Her voice went higher with each "better," til it got quite to a squeak at last.

Alice was just beginning to say, "There's a mistake somewhere,---" when the Queen began screaming so loud that she had to leave the sentence unfinished. "Oh, oh, oh!" shouted the Queen, shaking her hand as if she wanted to shake it off. "My finger's bleeding! Oh, oh, oh, oh!"

"My oil is drying up"

Her screams were so exactly like the whistle of a steam-engine, that Alice had to hold both her hands over her ears.

"What is the matter?" she said, as soon as there was a chance of making herself heard. "Have you pricked your finger?"

"What is the matter?" she said, as soon as there was a chance of making herself heard. "has the pandemic happened and caused oil production to be effected?"

"I haven't pricked it yet," the Queen said, "but I soon shall---oh, oh, oh!"

"The pandemic hasn't happened yet" the Queen said, "but it soon shall---oh, oh, oh!"

[amberelle]

me> How to tell if global peak C+C production rates were a cause or a symptom of 2019 economic downturn?

Google Bard> To tell if global peak C+C production rates were a cause or a symptom of the 2019 economic downturn, we can look at the following:

* The timing of the peak and the downturn. If the peak in C+C production rates preceded the downturn by a significant amount of time, then it is more likely that the peak was a cause of the downturn. However, if the peak and the downturn occurred around the same time, then it is more likely that the peak was a symptom of the downturn.

* The strength of the correlation between C+C production rates and economic growth. If there is a strong correlation between the two, then it is more likely that C+C production rates are a good indicator of economic growth. This means that a peak in C+C production rates could be a harbinger of an economic downturn. However, if the correlation between the two is weak, then it is less likely that C+C production rates are a good indicator of economic growth. This means that a peak in C+C production rates may not be a reliable predictor of an economic downturn.

* Other factors that could have contributed to the economic downturn. In addition to C+C production rates, there are many other factors that can contribute to an economic downturn, such as trade tensions, financial crises, and geopolitical instability. If there are other factors that could have contributed to the 2019 economic downturn, then it is less likely that global peak C+C production rates were the sole cause.

Based on the above analysis, it is likely that global peak C+C production rates were both a cause and a symptom of the 2019 economic downturn. The peak in C+C production rates preceded the downturn by a few months, suggesting that it may have been a harbinger of the downturn. Additionally, there is a strong correlation between C+C production rates and economic growth, suggesting that C+C production rates are a good indicator of economic health. However, there are other factors that could have contributed to the 2019 economic downturn, such as trade tensions and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, it is likely that global peak C+C production rates were both a cause and a symptom of the 2019 economic downturn.

It is important to note that economics is a complex field, and there is no single answer to this question. The above analysis is just one way to look at the data. Other economists may have different interpretations of the data and may come to different conclusions.

[amberelle]

It does not look like the November 2018 peak will be exceeded any time soon.



Image courtesy of
https://peakoilbarrel.com/june-non-opec ... roduction/

Note that June 2023 on that chart is in green but the accompanying text says June is a projection.

[theluckycountry]

It does not look like the November 2018 peak will be exceeded any time soon.

If the fracking gas liquid components, that are turned into plastic bags, are accounted for in the total oil production figures, then of what use are those figures in a peak oil discussion amberelle? This "oil" is simply being diverted into a whole new market, the manufacture of plastics on a ginormous scale to wrap all the Chinese TV sets, to make garden gnomes, bumpers for autos etc etc. None of it is going to address the consequences of peak oil as set out in the 2000's. None of it can run cars etc.

Even propane, and butane are lumped in. Your analysis is based on faked up data, just like all the data government supplies today. Data on GDP, Unemployment, Poverty, Inflation. It's all designed to do one thing. To keep the population from knowing how bad things really are. To keep them consuming and going into debt until there is no hope of them building a decent life for themselves after oil.

What are natural gas liquids and how are they used? - EIA
The chemical composition of these hydrocarbons is similar, yet their applications vary widely. Ethane occupies the largest share of NGL field production. It is used almost exclusively to produce ethylene, which is then turned into plastics

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=5930

NGLs are the light hydrocarbons other than methane that produced as part of natural gas; the most abundant ones are ethane, propane, and butane. Official statistical agencies tend to lump them together with crude oil when discussing long term trends. Thus, when the EIA or IEA say that world oil production has been rising consistently for the past decade, they are talking not only about crude oil, but about NGLs too.

https://www.cfr.org/blog/are-natural-ga ... s-good-oil

[amberelle]

It does not look like the November 2018 peak will be exceeded any time soon.

If the fracking gas liquid components, that are turned into plastic bags, are accounted for in the total oil production figures, then of what use are those figures in a peak oil discussion amberelle?

Why are you telling me that I am posting about total liquids when everything I wrote is about C+C?

[theluckycountry]

Why are you telling me that I am posting about total liquids when everything I wrote is about C+C?

To illustrate that most of you assumptions, and you failed predictions, were no doubt based on faked up data. So don't feel bad about getting it wrong. GIGO

[amberelle]

Why are you telling me that I am posting about total liquids when everything I wrote is about C+C?

To illustrate that most of you assumptions, and you failed predictions, were no doubt based on faked up data. So don't feel bad about getting it wrong. GIGO

Is English your native language?