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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 22:36:57

Armageddon wrote:97% of CFOs Believe A Recession Is Coming In 2020, Survey

Ninety-seven percent of CFOs (corporate financial officers) surveyed in a new poll believe that the United States will be in recession by the end of 2020


Ray Charles could have told you that. Just look at all the data.




https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/97-cf ... 020-survey

And for the UMPTEENTH time, even if we have a recession, recessions are normal things -- part of the business cycle. NOT DOOM. So what is your point?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 23:45:39

Have we ever entered a recession with 0% interest rates, record govt debt, record corporate debt, record personal debt, record credit card debt and record student load debt simultaneously?

We are entering uncharted waters. Don’t act like this is normal.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 09:07:02

Have we ever entered a recession with 0% interest rates, record govt debt, record corporate debt, record personal debt, record credit card debt and record student load debt simultaneously?


We can assume that the operative world is debt! Even a five year old realizes that they can only get so much money from their mother to buy candy before they are shut off. On the other hand we have a financial system that seems to believe that they have an unlimited supply regardless of the size of the debt. Maybe they need to talk to their mothers?

At one time there were a few adults around the banking system. It has since been taken over by the central banks' kindergarten of greedy little urchins. We have a world sized bellyache in the works. If $300 trillion doesn't bring on the crying, and screaming, $400 trillion surely will!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 16:48:26

Armageddon wrote:Have we ever entered a recession with 0% interest rates, record govt debt, record corporate debt, record personal debt, record credit card debt and record student load debt simultaneously?

We are entering uncharted waters. Don’t act like this is normal.

What is normal is your constant bleating of false doom. You've cried "wolf" several thousand times beyond credibility.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 16:58:00

shortonoil wrote:We can assume that the operative world is debt! Even a five year old realizes that they can only get so much money from their mother to buy candy before they are shut off. On the other hand we have a financial system that seems to believe that they have an unlimited supply regardless of the size of the debt. Maybe they need to talk to their mothers?

Speaking of childish behavior, your incessant, mindless, droning of poorly sourced claims of debt doom, WITHOUT CONTEXT regards the rest of the economy is right up there.

I was hearing this from doomers in 1985 when I started paying attention. The meme was crash, hyperinflation, and certain doom.

That was 35 years ago and the S&P 500 is up nearly 8 times since then, BEFORE any dividends. The GDP is up over 4X since then.

So how productive would it have been to listen to your ilk then? Why should ANYONE believe you have the first clue re predictive value now? Especially given your personal track record, re your posts?

If you can't act like more than a 5 year old by only bleating one thing endlessly, you're completely useless, re economic commentary.

Congrats. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 17:14:09

Yes, It's Possible: This Is How China Can Boost US Imports By $200 Billion
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/yes ... 00-billion

Well: some good news. Trump may have actually won the trade war. This will pump a few $100 billion into the US economy, if China survives. AFS is still killing its hogs, and SARS has broken out again. Since the US annual deficit is $1 trillion it will not be an economic boom. But, it may be enough to buy an election? After the elections- things might not go too well, but the Chinese will get 50 million All American pigs. The US is the only place that they can import that quantity of hogs, and not also import AFS.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 18:32:58

Speaking of childish behavior, your incessant, mindless, droning of poorly sourced claims of debt doom,

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insig ... leveraging

Speaking of poorly sourced, where did they locate your brain? On the past, good until date, shelf at WalMart. You certainly have the mental capacity of a 7 week old croissant!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 01:57:30

shortonoil wrote:
Speaking of childish behavior, your incessant, mindless, droning of poorly sourced claims of debt doom,

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insig ... leveraging

Speaking of poorly sourced, where did they locate your brain? On the past, good until date, shelf at WalMart. You certainly have the mental capacity of a 7 week old croissant!

Yeah, coming from you, I'm totally concerned. And you no doubt, MUST be right, given the body of your posts here and your brilliant track record. :razz:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 08:56:03

Yeah, coming from you, I'm totally concerned. And you no doubt, MUST be right, given the body of your posts here and your brilliant track record.


You have your head up your butt so far that you wouldn't recognize a train wreck in progress if you were standing in the caboose. A perfect example of being so stupid that they "couldn't pour piss out of a boot with the instructions written on the heal" (quote from an old Master Sargent, in memory of Tom Carr)

The oil age is ending; we are subtracting a constant amount from a declining balance. As we get close to the end it is going to be going terribly fast.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 11:25:32

Any recession we fall into at this point will not be a result of "the oil age is ending".

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 11:57:15

And back to the real world:

Weekly mortgage applications soar 30% as homebuyer demand hits the highest level in 11 years

Homebuyers also rushed in, sending purchase application volume up 16% for the week and up 8% from one year ago. Purchase mortgage activity hit the highest level since October 2009. Demand is so strong that real estate agents offered open houses on new properties the first weekend of the new year. Usually, they wait until February.

“Homebuyers were active the first week of the year. Low rates and the solid job market continue to encourage prospective buyers to enter the market,” Kan said.

Unfortunately, buyer demand is bumping up against near record-low supply. Price gains have reaccelerated, and if supply doesn’t improve markedly, some of the tightest markets will overheat quickly, leaving less affluent buyers out in the cold.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/weekly- ... rcent.html

Apparently somebody better call all those people buying new homes and tell them that debt is bad and they are going to burn in eternal hell. :roll:

On a broader perspective:

https://www.thebalance.com/how-is-the-e ... ng-3306046

There are six facts that tell you how the U.S. economy is doing. Economists call them leading economic indicators because they measure the early influencers on growth. In October 2019, they report that the economy is faltering slightly. It has slightly slower growth, low unemployment, and inflation is below target. But it's still almost a Goldilocks economy because it's neither too hot nor too cold.


This is an important point that is often missed. Bemoaning the fact GDP growth was only 2.1% (as Short did recently) is basically dumb given that is the sweet spot. Above 3% GDP and the economy is overheated, much below 2% and it’s in danger of contracting.

The article points out that of the 6 leading economic indicators 4 are positive and the two that are seen as weak, Jobs added and Durable Goods orders, need more than 1 month’s data to be significant given they fluctuate considerably over the year.

And now back to your regularly scheduled programing at zerohedge. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 13:04:54

shortonoil wrote:
Yeah, coming from you, I'm totally concerned. And you no doubt, MUST be right, given the body of your posts here and your brilliant track record.


You have your head up your butt so far that you wouldn't recognize a train wreck in progress if you were standing in the caboose. A perfect example of being so stupid that they "couldn't pour piss out of a boot with the instructions written on the heal" (quote from an old Master Sargent, in memory of Tom Carr)

The oil age is ending; we are subtracting a constant amount from a declining balance. As we get close to the end it is going to be going terribly fast.

What an idiot. And HOW MANY TIMES have you been telling us "the oil age is ending"? For HOW MANY YEARS? And HOW BADLY has your ETP theory failed and your conclusions in it been shown to be utter nonsense by folks here who actually know about oil production from the practical side. And how silly has your ETP "MAP" turned out to be for years now, and getting MUCH worse all the time re any predictive value?

Why not try and get just a TINY grip on this thing we folks who live in the real world call reality?

If you trade on your beliefs, no WONDER you can't even pay your debt, and then lie and claim you didn't make the bet, again, despite the evidence repeatedly shown on this site. (In line with your credibility though).

With your record, please, call me more names. Implies just the opposite. :idea:

In the real world, the oil age for transport MAY more or else end in multiple decades -- because of lack of DEMAND, not supply. (For other applications like petrochemicals, the reduced global demand will help that industry carry on for longer). Not that I'd expect your tiny, uneducated mind to EVER grasp that simple idea, backed by the data. But credible outfits like both the IEA and EIA which use actual oil experts and real world data recognize that there will be LOTS of oil through 2040 or 2050, at a minimum.

Congrats though, on keeping the string of "5 year old level" posts going. You'll always be able to claim that as credible accomplishment the next time you "publish" or start another fantasy web site. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 13:10:51

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
shortonoil wrote:The oil age is ending;

What an idiot.


The idiots are clearly us who, after all these years, still generate reactions to shortonoil's BS.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 13:45:16

mousepad wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
shortonoil wrote:The oil age is ending;

What an idiot.


The idiots are clearly us who, after all these years, still generate reactions to shortonoil's BS.

So we should let clowns like him and armageddon dominate the site? (And what is the site worth THEN? And what happens to mainstream lurkers open to ideas like resource limits THEN)?

And I suppose we should not respond to climate deniers? Just roast more rapidly as we do NOTHING, instead of point out what the data and science increasingly says?

And of course we should let the folks who say there is no evolution because God wouldn't like it should be what we base biology on? And naturally, THEY should decide how biology is taught in schools?

And what of astronomy and earth science? Should the story of the flat-earthers prevail?

And what of all the conspiracy theorists in general? Should we run the global economic system on what shadowstats claims is "real" inflation, ludicrous as that gets over decades? And base our space exploration strategy (re telescopes, etc) on the folks who claim the moon landings never occurred, despite all the evidence like man-made reflectors ON THE MOON?

And on and on.

No one is making you engage anyone. No one is making you read this thread.

For some of us, reality and data matter. It would be nice if more of the discussion could be fact based (even edge cases). If you can't handle that, no one is stopping you from running away, putting people on "ignore", etc.

I have had shorty on ignore in the past. I've considered putting armageddon on ignore too. But I'm not AT ALL convinced the thoughtful posts quite a few people on this thread (and others) have made, grounded in reality and facts, showing the doom patrol have nary a clue re ACTIONABLE predictions aren't worthwhile, even if that reality is promulgated by the "dreaded" MSM. :idea:

I'll just respectfully disagree with you. If the search for truth makes me an idiot, I suppose that's just a price I have to pay. At least I'm open to real world data, even if it's not what my intuition / religious bent / emotions WANT it to be. Oh, and I try to be honest enough to admit it when I'm wrong on the facts, VERY unlike how the doom patrol acts, in the main.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 14:15:30

WTI Extends Losses After Massive Product Inventory Build, New Record Production
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-ex ... production

DOE
Crude -2.55mm (-1.1mm exp)
Cushing +342k (-1.0mm exp)
Gasoline +6.678mm (+3.4mm exp)
Distillates +8.171mm (+1.1mm exp)

Largest total product build in history! As the per unit energy delivered from petroleum continues to fall,the economy will contract, and end user demand will fall with it. Production will need to be reduced by an every declining amount.

Debt Eruption Coming: Kudlow Says "Tax Cut 2.0" Will Be Unveiled Later This Year
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/deb ... later-year
What this means is that after the $1.1-$1.2 trillion budget deficit in 2020, the US is staring at an even wider deficit next year, which of course will be funded by debt, and since foreign buyers have been increasingly less excited to buy US debt, will force the Fed to expand its QE4 to buy coupon bonds across the entire curve. It also means that the following chart projecting the trajectory of US debt is now the optimistic case


The debt will destroy us!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 15:57:12

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I'll just respectfully disagree with you. If the search for truth makes me an idiot, I suppose that's just a price I have to pay.

You did not understand what I was trying to say.

You can see miles away that practically everything shortonil writes is pure, uncured, unrefined BS.
This after YEARS and YEARS of lecturing by more sane people (like you).
I even read he's ETF, (or EPF, or whatever he's theory is called) document.
There comes a time when to walk away and leave an idiot be, or you start looking like one yourself.
I'm sure you heard the saying about an abyss and a monster.


Outcast_Searcher wrote:So we should let clowns like him and armageddon dominate the site? (And what is the site worth THEN? And what happens to mainstream lurkers open to ideas like resource limits THEN)?

The site is for entertainment purpose only where a bunch of hobby/armchair know-it-all and know-betters waste their spare time.

And I suppose we should not respond to climate deniers? Just roast more rapidly as we do NOTHING,

That's a good idea. Doing nothing is clearly the sensible decision regarding climate change.
Especially in the light of humans fucking it up each time they "do something".
And just to make it clear. I'm not a denier. But I deny the idea of "doing".


And naturally, THEY should decide how biology is taught in schools?

I get it, I get it. You prefer that YOU decide how things are done and WHAT is taught.
A wholesome education educates broadly, allowing exploration of other ideas and options, to give perspective. And part of that is teaching philosophies that compete with the current mainstream evolution theories. In PARALLEL, teaching MULTIPLE views, explaining to pupils that there's MORE than 1 view to see the world.

And what of astronomy and earth science? Should the story of the flat-earthers prevail?

Is it important to you if the earth is flat or round? Planning a trip walking round the globe and wanna be certain you don't fall off? Let people believe what they want to believe.

No one is making you engage anyone. No one is making you read this thread.

that is true. That's why I hardly post here.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 16:20:25

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https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cold-blast- ... -1.1374253

Western Canadian Select - $23.50/ barrel
Edmonton Mixed Sweet - $10.00 / barrel

How long can they stay in business at those prices? The only thing holding the oil industry together is forced production cuts at the point of a gun (Venezuela & Iran) and fictitious FED money that is pumping up asset prices. The world is spiraling into the debt abyss at $134 billion per day.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 16:31:44

And for the UMPTEENTH time, even if we have a recession, recessions are normal things -- part of the business cycle. NOT DOOM. So what is your point?


Not this one! The energy is no longer available to pull the world out of a recession. This will be the last recession, before the Greatest Depression. World debt is following petroleum depletion exactly, and there is no way to pay the debt. The world is totally bankrupt!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 17:03:18

Cass Freight Index Posts Lowest Level Since January 2018, Biggest Decline Since 2008-9
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 20:10:59

Low interest rates and expansion of the Fed balance sheet are helping to lift asset prices, said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan


Water is wet
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