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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 13:23:14

NY Fed GDP Nowcast continues to show low 1% GDP growth for Q4 and Q1.


What comes first, 0% interest rates or 0% GDP?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 13:31:23

“Retail sales of new vehicles were down 7.1% in December, leading to a retail SAAR of 14.3 million, down from 15.0 million last Dec & from Nov’s 14.8 million rate”

This is what we call cold, hard data on health of U.S. consumer.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 13:36:51

As per @DRuizG80

“2019 marks the 4th consecutive year of retail sales declines.”

The most telling aspect is that as Corporate America looks to cut costs in 2020, we’ve finally seen fleet sales decline YoY. The emperor will be quite naked w/o #FleetFlattery
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 14:19:28

NY Fed GDP Nowcast continues to show low 1% GDP growth for Q4 and Q1.


What comes first, 0% interest rates or 0% GDP?


1% growth isn't bad, if you are a really old oyster!

When the FED can't print anymore because the credit markets collapsed there will be 0% (and probably negative) GDP. It is hard to believe that the repo market will make it through the year., and the repo market is a $1 trillion a day credit market. There is $43 trillion in new debt coming online in 2020.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 14:26:25

axios: Feds plan to keep pumping cash
The New York Fed added $83.1 billion in temporary liquidity to financial markets Thursday, and the U.S. central bank looks primed to keep pumping cash for at least the next few months.

Why it matters: The stock market's 30% gain in 2019 was in no small part backed by the Fed's decision to cut U.S. interest rates three times and inject more than $1 trillion of temporary financing into the repo market. It also added more than $400 billion to its balance sheet in the fourth quarter.

What we're hearing: Fed vice chair Richard Clarida told an audience assembled at the Council on Foreign Relations Thursday that the Fed was prepared to continue adding to its balance sheet and providing liquidity to the repo market "at least through April."

https://amp.axios.com/federal-reserve-t ... b39f3.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 15:55:39

Armageddon wrote: As per @DRuizG80

“2019 marks the 4th consecutive year of retail sales declines.”


No actual citation I see. What, afraid people might look at the actual data and catch you cherry picking or lying again?

In the real world, overall US retail sales have been trending higher over time, whether looking at a 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, or 25 year chart.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales

Since you're innumerate when looking at such charts, a positive growth rate means retail sales are GROWING.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 16:35:42

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote: As per @DRuizG80

“2019 marks the 4th consecutive year of retail sales declines.”


No actual citation I see. What, afraid people might look at the actual data and catch you cherry picking or lying again?

In the real world, overall US retail sales have been trending higher over time, whether looking at a 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, or 25 year chart.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales

Since you're innumerate when looking at such charts, a positive growth rate means retail sales are GROWING.




He was talking about auto sales. He’s an auto insider
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 17:41:11

Armageddon wrote:“Retail sales of new vehicles were down 7.1% in December, leading to a retail SAAR of 14.3 million, down from 15.0 million last Dec & from Nov’s 14.8 million rate”

This is what we call cold, hard data on health of U.S. consumer.




Cannot understate the importance of a sales rate decline......inspite of borrowers going significantly out in duration, lenders accepting weaker credit scores, and record low loan rates.

Just wait until fleet sales crash. It’s going to be a blood bath.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 20:47:52

#ThePerfectStorm is coming.

"The Federal Reserve and other central banks enabled this exploitation, but they’re powerless to extend it. Central banks can create nearly unlimited free credit for the powerful, but they can’t conjure up new herds to be preyed upon."

"As a result, the global economy and financial system are both running on the last toxic fumes of financialization and globalization—the final extremes of exploitation and predation—as the pack of predators has exploded in size and influence while the herd of prey has been decimated."

"In the dying light of the predators’ last feast, the Fed is worshipped as an omnipotent entity with god-like powers to levitate markets higher forever. But since the Fed is powerless to restore the upward trajectory of financialization and globalization, its omnipotence is about to expire."

"The prey always seem limitless to the predators, but this illusion expires when suddenly there is no longer enough for the ravenous pack of financial predators. At that point, the predators turn on each other. That is the narrative that will come to the fore in 2020 and play out in the decade ahead."
— Charles Hugh Smith

https://www.keiserreport.com/2020/01/th ... alization/
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 09:59:14

"Truck Manufacturing Orders Plunge To Decade Low In 2019" - You just have to look underneath the hood to understand what is really going in the US and global economy... and it's pretty terrifying.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 11:17:20

Still Signaling Recession, Annual Growth in December 2019 Payrolls Hit a Two-Year Low, Amidst Faltering Production and Retail Sales, and in Advance of Next Month’s Negative Payroll Benchmark Revisions / Headline Unemployment Was at a Record Low, Amidst Negligible Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions and Despite High Levels of Labor-Market Stress / December Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Notched Minimally Lower to 8.4% from a 10-Plus Year High of 8.6% (see the Alternate Data tab) / November 2019 Trade Deficit Narrowed for the Third Month, Reflecting Weakening Consumer Activity.....

Nonetheless, the November 2019 CASS Freight Index Dropped Year-to-Year for the 12th Straight Month, As Did Its 12-Month Moving Average, Signaling a Deepening Recession

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Waiting for the last shoe to drop! The consumer is the last hold out, and they aren't doing well. China fears mass unemployment this coming year. China can fix it; they'll cook their books some more, and send the rioters to the gulag.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/13/econ ... index.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 15:11:57

shortonoil wrote:http://www.shadowstats.com/

Waiting for the last shoe to drop! The consumer is the last hold out, and they aren't doing well. China fears mass unemployment this coming year. China can fix it; they'll cook their books some more, and send the rioters to the gulag.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/13/econ ... index.html

When you believe shadowstats reflects long term economic reality, you're completely hopeless, which is totally consistent with your history on this site.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 15:29:54

Federal Reserve Admits It Pumped More than $6 Trillion to Wall Street in Recent Six Week Period

Insanity
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 15:48:44

Armageddon wrote:Federal Reserve Admits It Pumped More than $6 Trillion to Wall Street in Recent Six Week Period

Insanity

Funny, I couldn't seem to find a credible source for this.

Since your tendency to use credible links is so poor, why am I not surprised?

But hey, if you need a certain number of posts per day, why worry about quality or veracity, it's all about claiming insta-doom. :lol:

Meanwhile in the real world, the Fed's balance sheet shrank in the previous week, amidst all the doomers' arm waving about short term REPO loans.

Want insanity? Look in the mirror, and ponder your track record on this site.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 15:51:33

Armageddon wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote: As per @DRuizG80

“2019 marks the 4th consecutive year of retail sales declines.”


No actual citation I see. What, afraid people might look at the actual data and catch you cherry picking or lying again?

In the real world, overall US retail sales have been trending higher over time, whether looking at a 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, or 25 year chart.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales

Since you're innumerate when looking at such charts, a positive growth rate means retail sales are GROWING.




He was talking about auto sales. He’s an auto insider

So, why not just be honest about what you're posting? And STILL, why no credible citation?

But I know, if you don't have facts on your side, and even cherry picking gets lame, then pretend you're NOT cherry picking when you are. THAT'S the ticket!
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 16:38:08

Federal Reserve Admits It Pumped More than $6 Trillion to Wall Street in Recent Six Week Period



https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/01/ ... ek-period/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 16:52:22

97% of CFOs Believe A Recession Is Coming In 2020, Survey

Ninety-seven percent of CFOs (corporate financial officers) surveyed in a new poll believe that the United States will be in recession by the end of 2020


Ray Charles could have told you that. Just look at all the data.




https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/97-cf ... 020-survey
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 16:54:48

Meanwhile, at the Central Bank All-You-Can-Eat Diner...

Global debt-to-GDP hit an all-time high of 322% in the third quarter of last year according to the Institute of International Finance and is expected to exceed $257 trillion in 1Q2020.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 17:06:53

The fourth-quarter growth scare is a thing of the past, as the U.S. economy looks set to close the books on 2019 with a solid rise.
Manufacturing and trade reports Tuesday confirmed that GDP is on pace to rise more than 2% for the period.  An Atlanta Fed gauge estimates the gain at 2.3%, better than the 2.1% in the third quarter and enough to close out the year with average quarterly gain of about 2.4%.
While that would mark a slowdown from the 2.9% increase in 2018, it would still be indicative that the decade-old expansion is alive and well and prepped to continue into 2020.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/us-economy-the-big-recession-scare-is-over.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 22:28:46

Armageddon wrote:Federal Reserve Admits It Pumped More than $6 Trillion to Wall Street in Recent Six Week Period



https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/01/ ... ek-period/

Yeah, I found that too, via a google search. If THAT's your best example of a CREDIBLE cite, that's just what I expected from you.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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