[Newfie]

I have an even better reading recommendation for how we, humans, work in the moment.

Thinking: Fast and Slow

Basically we have a snake brain (amygdala) and a frontal cortex. Fast and slow respectfully. The frontal cortex, being slow, is mostly out to lunch on decision making. The snake brain is just like a obsessed coded, just hunkered down pounding out line after line of code, all based on who knows what.

We CAN get the frontal cortex involved, but it’s a LOT of work and exhausting, so then it’s back to the snake brain.

Think you are better than average? Yup 95% of us (80% for females) think they are better than average. So that just makes you “average”.

If it sounds silly recall Danny Khanaman, a psychologist of all things, won the Nobel Prize in Economics for displacing the 200 year old human reaction model with something far more accurate.

[Zarquon]

But there was also some people saying that there were reports of an engine overheat before the incident, and reports Iran is saying the local authorities wanted the plane grounded but the pilot over rode their concerns and took off. And I don’t have links to that either, only second hand reports.

Note I’m not saying “This DID happen.” Only that it is a possible solution that best fits the reports from all circumstances.

At this point I’m leaning toward it just being a simple SNAFU.

If the theory is that the Iranian air defense was so spooked by a civilian airliner taking off from Tehran airport that they immediately opened fire... then the theory needs a little more explanation IMO.

[careinke]

I saw a report on Fox that said the video showed the hit, and then the bang sound came 10 seconds later, proving the airplane was only two miles away. Frankly, that just doesn't line up with physics. Last time I checked the speed of sound is right around 600 mph (depending on atmospheric density), which means if it was a ten second "flash to bang", the plane would have been 10 miles away, not 2.

Basic NBC training; Flash, drop and start counting, Boom, whatever number you are at is how many miles you are from it, move perpendicular to the wind to avoid fallout. It is also useful to tell how far away lightning is from you...

So you can't do fifth grade math and check before claiming that?

I remember as a child knowing that a rough guess for lightning distance re time to the thunderclap, was 5 seconds per mile. So I checked (given how uneven my memory is at age 60).

There are 3600 seconds per hour.

Looking it up to verify, instead of guessing, speed of sound roughly 750 mph. (It varies based on conditions, but this is a decent figure for back-of-the-envelope sanity checking). 700 is a far better round figure to use for many conditions than 600, BTW.

For example:

https://www.engineersedge.com/physics/s ... _13241.htm

750 mph / 3600 seconds per hour = .20833 miles per second, or call it .21 rounded.

So, certainly close enough to a mile per 5 seconds to call that a good rule of thumb.

...

Seriously. THIS IS THE INTERNET. Is basic fact / sanity checking SO HARD, before blaring how wrong figures you have doubts about are, before showing you're completely clueless yourself?

Again, credit to asg, for pointing out how much "The Death of Expertise" should be reading and applying the principles used, by the vast majority of would-be experts in "all things" on the web.

https://www.amazon.com/Death-Expertise- ... B01MYCDVHH

Yes you are right my math was wrong. (I am getting old). Somehow I confused calculating aircraft speed for intercepts, to Mach, where airspeed is in knots and Mach 1, is around 600 knots at altitude.

The drop and count was still used for Nukes, but I must have forgot the multiplyer.

Thanks for the correction and Mea Culpa.

[Newfie]

But there was also some people saying that there were reports of an engine overheat before the incident, and reports Iran is saying the local authorities wanted the plane grounded but the pilot over rode their concerns and took off. And I don’t have links to that either, only second hand reports.

Note I’m not saying “This DID happen.” Only that it is a possible solution that best fits the reports from all circumstances.

At this point I’m leaning toward it just being a simple SNAFU.

If the theory is that the Iranian air defense was so spooked by a civilian airliner taking off from Tehran airport that they immediately opened fire... then the theory needs a little more explanation IMO.

A lot more than a little explanation is called for.

Whether we get it or not is another matter.

This is NOT an American affair. Let Iran piss of Canada, and BG, and Ukraine, and whom ever else they want to piss off by not being forth coming.

[asg70]

The ironic precedent here is that the russian-backed militia shot down the commercial jet in Ukraine. This followed by unending denials to avoid accepting moral disgrace, just like Iran is doing now.

So you think stupidity like this can't happen? It can and HAS happened.

And even MORE irony is that Iran said the number of missiles shot at the US matched the number of casualties from the US accidentally shooting down an Iranian airliner in 1988!!

So you have Trump invoking an old grudge (52 sites = 52 hostages) caused Iran to respond in kind by blaming the US for accidentally shooting down a commercial only to cause the exact same thing!

If I didn't know any better I'd call it cosmic karmic justice.

I feel there is enough evidence to backup the story that the jet was shot down by Iran. The hot potato right now is the black box recorder. If Iran doesn't release the recorder then they are obviously covering it up.

[careinke]

I feel there is enough evidence to backup the story that the jet was shot down by Iran. The hot potato right now is the black box recorder. If Iran doesn't release the recorder then they are obviously covering it up.

I wonder if the DATA on the recorder can be modified, with no trace, given enough time.

[asg70]

It's all academic now. Iran just did the right thing and admitted to it. I guess they realized they couldn't cover it up and this was the path of least resistance.

https://apnews.com/21f4a92a2dfbc38581719664bdf6f38e

[Plantagenet]

dup post

[Plantagenet]

The BBC is reporting that the Iranian military is now admitting they made a "human error" that brought the plane down.

They have apologized to all the victims.

Hopefully they will now stop the bulldozers and turn over the black boxes and cooperate with the relevant international agencies as the investigation goes forward.

Cheers!

PS...I know some Iranian Americans who teach here at the University and, as luck would have it, they've been visiting their relatives Iran. We've all been holding our breath, but just got the news that they got out OK on another flight.

Thank god.

[rockdoc123]

PS...I know some Iranian Americans who teach here at the University and, as luck would have it, they've been visiting their relatives Iran. We've all been holding our breath, but just got the news that they got out OK on another flight.

PS....please F.O. The folks who did lose their lives on that plane were from places like Canada and the UK, countries who are not involved in any of this to and fro. The opinions of US citizens on this event are pretty much immaterial as it has no effect on you. There are citizens of other countries who were not involved in this conflict who lost their lives, show some frigging respect.

[Cog]

Like it or not if you are a Westener, you are hated by the Mullahs just as much as us Americans. You are infidels and worthy of death because you don't worship their moon god.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Like it or not if you are a Westener, you are hated by the Mullahs just as much as us Americans. You are infidels and worthy of death because you don't worship their moon god.

Yes, indeed. They are disgusted with people worshipping sodomy and that is how Westerners are seen there (and increasingly in Eastern Europe as well).
So what is better to worship:
1. Moon God?
2. Sodomy?

[tita]

We can easily think that Iran defense were on full alert, expecting some retaliation after their attack 4 hours before. .

Of course. But this wasn't the only airplane that flew through that air space during those four hours.

Have you ever been to an airport?

Airplanes take off and land all the time.

Actually, I spent 4 months just beside an airport. Yes, airplanes take off and land all the time... Except between 22:00 and 6:00 in my country. I don't know how the Iran airport work, but I'm pretty sure there is no take-off and landing in the night. This plane was one of the early one, if not the first. But I don't know what happened, I don't know the circumstances, I don't know the facts. It's the job of the investigators to tell how it happened, and then it's the job of justice to say who was responsible. The report of investigators is public.

The point is that you want to prove your suspicions that it was deliberate, and speculate without much elements. That's how rumours, false conclusions and conspiracy theories are born. It is quite difficult to prove such a thing, and unless Iran army release some elements to prove it wasn't deliberate, you won't know.

Yesterday, I was pretty sure that the plane was hit by a missile. The analysis from NYTimes was rock solid. I also just thought that Iran army had to confess their responsibility in this crash, which they did afterwards.

[Cog]

Like it or not if you are a Westener, you are hated by the Mullahs just as much as us Americans. You are infidels and worthy of death because you don't worship their moon god.

Yes, indeed. They are disgusted with people worshipping sodomy and that is how Westerners are seen there (and increasingly in Eastern Europe as well).
So what is better to worship:
1. Moon God?
2. Sodomy?

Is it better to live in a country where we don't care what you do in your bedroom or a country that stones gays to death? I guess only you can judge that. Even though I'm a knuckle-dragging right winger, even this deplorable has learned that you can't catch the gay. The Iranians seem to think otherwise along with Russians and eastern Europeans.

[Cog]

It was pretty clever of the administration not to comment on the Iranian plane situation for a couple of days, although given our satellite reconnaissance we most certainly saw the launch of their SAMS in real time. We let the Iranians fully involve themselves with their lie so the world could see just what type of government operates there. As a side benefit Trump got the Democrats to jump on board with the Iranians.

Whenever you scratch your head over some action that President Trump takes, wait a few days and it becomes obvious there is a plan involved that accomplishes both his purpose and makes the main stream media and the Democrat Party look bad simultaneously.

[Newfie]

Plan or no Trump played this the right way, as opposed to the D’s.

Let’s hope he can build in this to get out of the region.

[Newfie]

Here is an interesting article on what likely lead up to the accidental shoot down.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3 ... ent-people

[EnergyUnlimited]

Is it better to live in a country where we don't care what you do in your bedroom or a country that stones gays to death? I guess only you can judge that. Even though I'm a knuckle-dragging right winger, even this deplorable has learned that you can't catch the gay. The Iranians seem to think otherwise along with Russians and eastern Europeans.

Problem with West is that governments *do* care what you do in your bedroom.
These days if you are *not* a gay you are seen as a bad gay and you have uphill due to lack of privileges gays are enjoying.
And try to criticize them (in the UK or in Sweden in particular) and you may go to jail.
Now try to refuse to accept decision of your 7-12 y.o. kid to change sex in the US and government may cancel your parental rights.
Hence in Iran and also increasingly in Eastern Europe Westerners are seen as sodomy worshippers.

[asg70]

Plan or no Trump played this the right way, as opposed to the D’s.

Did he? Maybe he wouldn't have gotten us into this mess in the first place if he hadn't been motivated to protect himself from impeachment.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/01/ ... imani.html

[tita]

Whenever you scratch your head over some action that President Trump takes, wait a few days and it becomes obvious there is a plan involved that accomplishes both his purpose and makes the main stream media and the Democrat Party look bad simultaneously.

Wait a few years, and you see how bad the plan actually was in accomplishing its purpose... Or was there a purpose actually? What's the final objective here? Did we got nearer?

I mean, 17 years ago, Sadam Hussein was overthrown and later executed and... It's seems to always be the same shit there, if not worse. And the last action means more US soldiers in Iraq as the proxy war against Iran will intensify.

But anyway, the D's don't argue on what was done (they probably would have done the same). They argue on the way it was decided, that a very sensitive decision that could throw the nation into a war can't be taken that easily.