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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 19:30:16

(That feeling when you unhide a post from short and find out it's yet another worthless Zerohedge link)

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BOLD PREDICTIONS
-I'm glad Trump is in there now. I think we'll have a vaccine in a couple of months. (mmasters, 3/17/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 02:07:16

Watch this and try to learn something


Michael Pento – Reset Will be Money Printing & Debt Default

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DO_6USqLNcI&t=1096s
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 04:31:05

Armageddon wrote:Watch this and try to learn something


Michael Pento – Reset Will be Money Printing & Debt Default

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DO_6USqLNcI&t=1096s

Ah, appealing to another doomer "authority" with a terrible track record re wrong predictions, just like you and shorty. :shock:

Look in the mirror when you suggest learning something. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 09:17:48

Michael Pento – Reset Will be Money Printing & Debt Default


"When the only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

The debt is growing exponentially because no one is paying off the principle! $1 at 3% for 120 years is $34.71. When the debt becomes large enough the GDP becomes insufficient to even cover the service cost. The monetary system then collapses! All debt based monetary systems must self destruct because of their design. This one is almost at its good until date. Store shelves go bare, and gas pumps go dry. Digging through garbage cans becomes the national past time.

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then: it's a long, long, long way down:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 10:29:53

If the Fed's balance sheet continues to expand at the pace of the last 4 months (>$100 billion per month), it will hit a new all-time high by April.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 10:39:50

When the debt becomes large enough the GDP becomes insufficient to even cover the service cost.


You have a long wait. Have a snooze and stop posting your constant innumerate bull shit until the debt servicing ratio for the US private nonfinancial sector reaches the 2008 peak level of 18%.

https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/tseries ... 014&i=32.1
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 12:08:48

You have a long wait.


Four years is a long time to wait, if you are hiding under a rock! We have until interest rates reach zero, then no one will be able to turn over their existing debt. At zero percent the time variable is taken out of money. Without a time variable money no longer has any meaning because no one is going to want to lend it. A debt based currency requires new debt to generate new money. At zero percent, what ever then exists disappears down the infinite rat hole of debt. The neutral rate that follows the debt curve (the rate that neither stimulates or restricts the economy) will be too small to produce arbitrage for issuers by 2024. If you are planning on kicking the bucket before then; don't worry about it.

If the Fed's balance sheet continues to expand at the pace of the last 4 months (>$100 billion per month), it will hit a new all-time high by April.


Some China-man saw one of his pigs die, and said, "So What!" Now with 350 million pigs dead he is saying "So Much?". Growing the FED's balance sheet at over 5% per year of US GDP is definitely a "So Much". If the FED cuts rates the US Treasury Note will lose its high interest rate advantage, and money will stop flowing into the US. The economy will then crash. If they keep printing money the Long Bond will be forced down, money will stop flowing into the US, and the economy will crash. The operative word is crash. The FED is trying to thread a needle while falling off a cliff.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 19:22:48

shortonoil wrote:
You have a long wait.


Four years is a long time to wait, if you are hiding under a rock! We have until interest rates reach zero, then no one will be able to turn over their existing debt. At zero percent the time variable is taken out of money. Without a time variable money no longer has any meaning because no one is going to want to lend it.

Your ignorance and divorce from reality grows worse and worse.

We've had NEGATIVE interest rates in much of the world for years now. Earth to clueless one -- the global GDP is still positive, money has meaning, etc.

Your ignorant desperation to paint a constant picture of doom CONSTANTLY under any scenario just gets more and more laughable.

Give it up. Get a life. Hint: If "no one wants to lend it", then rates will rise. Because though you're clueless about it, in economics, supply and demand works, and it's a major principle.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 19:58:34

FED STAFF MEMBER SAID TECHNICAL ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR IOER, OVERNIGHT REVERSE REPURCHASE RATES -MINUTES - Reuters News

When we get to needing capital injections again, like the heart of the 2008 crisis, the Fed will just call them "Technical Injections."
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 08:05:13

When we get to needing capital injections again, like the heart of the 2008 crisis, the Fed will just call them "Technical Injections."


Patching up the Titanic will bubble gum, and duck tape!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 08:50:35

Give it up. Get a life. Hint: If "no one wants to lend it", then rates will rise. Because though you're clueless about it, in economics, supply and demand works, and it's a major principle.


Interest rates will rise; sure - we'll just get Tesla to pay the difference! A 1% increase in interest rates would now cost the world $30 trillion a year. Almost the total GDP of the world's G7 nations. Interest rates can only go down because no one can pay for an increase. Delusional thinking will not create fantasy results. The oil age is ending, and what was known as the modern, technological, industrial economy will end with it.

In four years the world's debt formation per year will equal its GDP. We bought just enough rope to hang ourselves, and we did it on credit!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 09:22:05

A 1% increase in interest rates would now cost the world $30 trillion a year.


Bankrupt Bozo Bedford's order of magnitude innumeracy is on further display. What an effing moron.

IIF's 2019 global debt chart of $255 trillion X 1% = $2.55 trillion.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 11:34:24

Here is a graph made from 60 data points with a correlation coefficient of R = .99, and all from the same source as your 5 in the pretty bar graph. They were fitted by a Marque Levenberg algorithm run on a computer. You can now put away your abacus, and finger paints. The third grade class is being let out early today.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 12:55:53

Here is a graph made from 60 data points with a correlation coefficient of R = .99, and all from the same source as your 5 in the pretty bar graph.


For the umpteenth time, fix your debt graph. The 2019 data point is only overstated by ~$50 trillion and the 2006 data point is only understated by $100 trillion+, you innumerate moron.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 15:01:38

marmico wrote:
Here is a graph made from 60 data points with a correlation coefficient of R = .99, and all from the same source as your 5 in the pretty bar graph.


For the umpteenth time, fix your debt graph. The 2019 data point is only overstated by ~$50 trillion and the 2006 data point is only understated by $100 trillion+, you innumerate moron.

+1

Especially the innumerate part.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 17:47:05

Pier 1 Imports to close up to 450 stores amid bankruptcy fears


Get ready for much more of this
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 17:50:35

Trump: America's debt is greater than our GDP. Time for new thinking


No shit?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 19:13:45

Armageddon wrote:Pier 1 Imports to close up to 450 stores amid bankruptcy fears


Get ready for much more of this


Got anything relevant to a stock market crash yet?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 19:54:10

Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Pier 1 Imports to close up to 450 stores amid bankruptcy fears


Get ready for much more of this


Got anything relevant to a stock market crash yet?



Markets should be fine for a while. Trump will make sure of it by more rate cuts, QE, stimulus, fake China deals etc. He’ll do whatever it takes until the election. After that, buckle up son.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 21:03:16

Ok so Armageddon is saying to massively short the market right after the November election. Got it. Let's see how yet another doomer prediction works out.
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