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MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 25 Dec 2019, 13:24:33

Russia ‘ready to face oil price slump to $25’
http://www.tradearabia.com/news/OGN_362216.html

"Since oil prices are unlikely to increase dramatically, then if the restrictions on oil production are not reached with Opec countries, there are, of course, risks that prices may drop to $25-30 per barrel. Our budget policy allows us to circumvent these risks for up to three years, fulfilling all our obligations with accumulated reserves,” Siluanov explained.


Between Venezuela and Iran over 5 mb/d have already been taken off the market
during the last 18 months. The Russians are saying that without additional cuts the price will fall back into MAP territory. The dictates of physics will always prevail, and the dictates of physics are telling us the end of the oil age is at hand.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 25 Dec 2019, 13:39:59

shortonoil wrote:Between Venezuela and Iran over 5 mb/d have already been taken off the market
during the last 18 months. The Russians are saying that without additional cuts the price will fall back into MAP territory. The dictates of physics will always prevail, and the dictates of physics are telling us the end of the oil age is at hand.


The dictates of physics have nothing to do with price. No wonder everything that comes off your keyboard is such crap.

Have you paid off on the bet yet welsher?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 25 Dec 2019, 15:16:24

Have you paid off on the bet yet welsher?


What bet?

The 2014 crash in oil prices that we predicted 6 months in advance turned out to be extremely lucrative on the short side. It's a shame that you weren't savvy enough to pick up on it. If you had been you wouldn't be stuck at 50¢ a post.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 25 Dec 2019, 17:08:33

shortonoil wrote:
Have you paid off on the bet yet welsher?
What bet?
This bet:

shortonoil wrote:
kublikhan wrote:I'll take that wager. I'll even go up to your limit of $250. So the bet is:
If average 2016 price of oil is lower than average 2017, I win and you pay me $1250 via paypal.
If average 2016 price of oil is higher than average 2017, you win and I pay you $250 via paypal.
Is this correct?
Yearly average WTI as reported by the EIA to be specific. Agreed and you are on!
THE Price of Crude pt 13

You made this bet with me, lost, and haven't paid off yet.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 25 Dec 2019, 17:36:47

shortonoil wrote:
Have you paid off on the bet yet welsher?


What bet?


The one you lost. Here. Someone else will kick in the details on your lack of character in a minute I imagine.

Not the one you mentioned making at work, and subsequently lost as well, quite a ways back when you were claiming that Campbell was right about peak oil. You can't even name drop people who get it right.

shortonoil wrote:The 2014 crash in oil prices that we predicted 6 months in advance turned out to be extremely lucrative on the short side.


And it was lucrative to those who bet against whatever nonsense you were selling back then as well. Except you welshed.

shortonoil wrote:It's a shame that you weren't savvy enough to pick up on it. If you had been you wouldn't be stuck at 50¢ a post.


Part of my employment requirements are restrictions on my personal investments. Let us not forget, it is amateurs like you that have to pull all evidence of your crap from the internet in order to stop the bleeding when it comes to your credibility. Everything I've ever published is still out there though...do it right the first time, and you won't end up an internet laughingstock like you.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Dec 2019, 21:25:14

shortonoil wrote:Russia ‘ready to face oil price slump to $25’
http://www.tradearabia.com/news/OGN_362216.html

"Since oil prices are unlikely to increase dramatically, then if the restrictions on oil production are not reached with Opec countries, there are, of course, risks that prices may drop to $25-30 per barrel. Our budget policy allows us to circumvent these risks for up to three years, fulfilling all our obligations with accumulated reserves,” Siluanov explained.


Between Venezuela and Iran over 5 mb/d have already been taken off the market
during the last 18 months. The Russians are saying that without additional cuts the price will fall back into MAP territory. The dictates of physics will always prevail, and the dictates of physics are telling us the end of the oil age is at hand.

Given the accuracy of your predictions over time, why not just predict death rays from Mars while you're at it. Oh, and be sure to charge for that. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Dec 2019, 21:46:24

Yoshua wrote:Everybody is going into debt.

Wrong again.

"Everyone", most certainly is NOT "going into debt", whether you say so or not.

Aside from my credit card, which I auto-pay in full every month and thus never pay a cent in interest, I have NO debt. The credit card is just a cash management / convenience / security device.

And I haven't had any debt for 13 years. I had debt for 6 years of my life, re two car loans, one of which had almost zero interest rates and didn't impact the deal I made, so it was basically free money -- I was getting 5ish% in a government money market account mutual fund, and paying 0.9% to Nissan for the car loan. I know economics is hard for you, but I'm confident you could work out the math there.

I did have a traditional car loan when I was 23, because I was just getting rolling in my career post college and didn't want to dump over half my financial assets into the car at that point. Oh, and I was also getting about 2% more on 6 month CD's than the car loan, and rolling those over at the time.

....

So, how is it that "everyone" is "piling up debt"? I'm sure there are lots of people like me who live simply and need no debt. Aside from the mortgage on the house, my dad never had ANY debt I can recall other than using a credit card and paying zero interest by paying the full balance on time each month.

....

Or you're just making another empty claim, bereft of facts? OK. No surprise there.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 26 Dec 2019, 04:13:58

OS

As an American citizen you share the national debt. So, yes you are in debt.

The world is going into debt because it can't afford the energy, machines, infrastructure, goods and services, which all consumes energy to produce.

There's an imbalance in the energy equation as the EROEI of energy production declines. That imbalance is showing up as an increasing debt ratio to GDP.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby dirtyharry » Thu 26 Dec 2019, 06:01:56

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Yoshua wrote:Everybody is going into debt.

Wrong again.

"Everyone", most certainly is NOT "going into debt", whether you say so or not.

Aside from my credit card, which I auto-pay in full every month and thus never pay a cent in interest, I have NO debt. The credit card is just a cash management / convenience / security device.

And I haven't had any debt for 13 years. I had debt for 6 years of my life, re two car loans, one of which had almost zero interest rates and didn't impact the deal I made, so it was basically free money -- I was getting 5ish% in a government money market account mutual fund, and paying 0.9% to Nissan for the car loan. I know economics is hard for you, but I'm confident you could work out the math there.

I did have a traditional car loan when I was 23, because I was just getting rolling in my career post college and didn't want to dump over half my financial assets into the car at that point. Oh, and I was also getting about 2% more on 6 month CD's than the car loan, and rolling those over at the time.

....

So, how is it that "everyone" is "piling up debt"? I'm sure there are lots of people like me who live simply and need no debt. Aside from the mortgage on the house, my dad never had ANY debt I can recall other than using a credit card and paying zero interest by paying the full balance on time each month.

....

Or you're just making another empty claim, bereft of facts? OK. No surprise there.


OS ,your personal financial balance sheet is of no value and of no interest to anyone . Of course I am happy that you are following a good personal strategy and kudos for that . But for every OS there are 24 persons A,B,C ,D to Z (excluding OS) who are taking out pay day loans . You are making a error for thinking that everybody follows your line of thought . However ending on a positive note ,I am sure your strategy will save you a lot of heartburn . Be Well .
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 26 Dec 2019, 08:39:11

[qutoe]"Everyone", most certainly is NOT "going into debt", whether you say so or not.[/quote]

If your government is going into debt, you are going into debt; by definition! Debt destroys productivity, capital investment, innovation. The entire world is going into debt, and at a horrendous rate, and we will all pay for it one way, or the other. Get out of jail free cards only exist when playing Monopoly!

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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Thu 26 Dec 2019, 08:54:20

If you spend all your time on doomer websites, you will of course think the crash is coming any day now since that is what they preach. If you invest by recommendations of doomer websites, you will quickly go bankrupt.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 26 Dec 2019, 10:19:37

Yoshua wrote:There's an imbalance in the energy equation as the EROEI of energy production declines. That imbalance is showing up as an increasing debt ratio to GDP.


Says you. And someone else who's name I forget that was so discredited in their eroei professional work that they removed it from the net because of the destruction it caused to their credibility on the topic.

Buy a book, learn something about why lower EROEI is good, you know, IMPROVE your understanding of the world. I mean really, you got suckered something fierce with the work that was so bad it had to be removed from the web, becoming more than a one note wonder will do you some good.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 26 Dec 2019, 11:05:48

Yoshua wrote:
There's an imbalance in the energy equation as the EROEI of energy production declines. That imbalance is showing up as an increasing debt ratio to GDP.


And, it is growing exponentially! To make matters worse, we can't even be sure where GDP actually is; the underground economy is not included in those numbers. This Ponzi scheme could hold together to a debt level of $400 trillion when the currency destruction rate becomes equal to the total currency in circulation; then again, maybe it won't.

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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 26 Dec 2019, 11:23:52

shortonoil wrote:
Yoshua wrote:
There's an imbalance in the energy equation as the EROEI of energy production declines. That imbalance is showing up as an increasing debt ratio to GDP.


And, it is growing exponentially!


Prove it. Oh wait!! You tried, and after welshed on a bet based on the claim, you then had to remove all evidence of the shoddy work that caused you to lose the bet!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 26 Dec 2019, 12:32:42

Debt destroys productivity, capital investment, innovation.


this is without doubt, one of the dumbest comments made here and shows a healthy ignorance of what makes economies grow.

If every company historically never took out debt and tried to live within their own cashflow we would be living in the fifties. The availability of debt allows for companies to grow early in the business cycle which in turn helps economies expand. Without the issuance of debt, most of the countries in Africa would have no appreciable economy whatsoever. It was an investment from oil and gas and mining companies (working from a debt incentive) and institutions like the World Bank (issuing debt) that allowed countries to build the necessary infrastructure to allow them to stand on their own two feet. Without the availability of debt Apple might never have taken over the market back in the mid-nineties. Exxon prior to 2008 had debt of around 5 billion and that went to a high of 30 billion in 2016. Though debt increased 6 fold the debt to equity ratio only doubled, meaning the company used that debt to grow at an accelerated rate very efficiently. Both Bezos and Buffett use leveraged investments to increase their wealth. They do this by taking on debt at an attractive level and then investing for returns that outweight the costs of that debt. As an example they might take on $100 MM debt at a rate of 3% for one year and reinvest that in fairly safe investments for a return of 5%. When it is all said and done they made $2 MM using someone else's money.

As I have said numerous times here there seems to be a healthy misunderstanding here of what is good and bad debt. Good debt is what the vast majority of companies in North America have. That debt is backed up by assets that have valuation much higher than the principle and invariably the cashflow from these companies has no problem paying the interest on that debt as it normally makes up less than 20% of their annual budget. Those companies that for various reasons fall into problems where their cashflow drops below where they can service their debt (there are actually very few companies like this around) either are bought by companies who are in a much better position or alternatively look to refinancing that debt through Chapter 11 provisions. With regards to the US debt it stands at a Debt/GDP ratio of 105% meaning the entire debt could be essentially canceled in 14 months if the annual budget was directed solely at debt repayment. As it stands debt servicing costs amount to less than 10% of the annual budget which should create no problem whatsoever in terms of carrying the debt into the future even if interest rates were to rise marginally again.

Bad debt, on the other hand, is the type of debt that was issued back in 2006 up until the recession in 2008 with regards to mortgages. In this case, the normal hurdles for mortgage qualification were removed and a number of individuals/small corporations who normally would not qualify for one mortgage took out mortgages on multiple properties. Even a small upwards movement in interest rates put these mortgages at risk and once the issuers of these mortgages feel into cash crunches and needed to start calling in loans all hell broke loose, as you would expect when you are trying to margin call individuals with insufficient assets. This is definitely not the situation we are in now.

Some debt probably falls into both categories. As an example, student loan debt is both good and sometimes bad. The good debt is where student loans were issued to individuals who diligently sought degrees that could be useful to the economy. Even if they paid less than prime interest on those loans and even if a portion were granted after a few years of diligent payment the countries economy benefits from the contribution these individuals make to overall GDP and growth. On the other hand individuals who for one reason or another could not obtain a job or didn't want a job when they finished or on the other hand sought a degree in something that would add no value to the economy that debt is bad.

But people need to get it through their heads. Debt is not always bad. Most investment banks will not put money into companies that are considered growth companies rather than dividend generators unless they have a some significant amount of debt. In cases where the company is a going concern much higher debt to equity ratios are seen as being no problem and actually attractive given it will allow the company to accelerate growth in a good economy.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 26 Dec 2019, 15:01:46

Debt destroys productivity, capital investment, innovation.


Is this jug-head serious? Debt reduces credit availability; which means less is borrowed, and less is invested. Productivity goes down, like it is now, and capital investments are reduced. If the money is not borrowed, it is not there. Period, unless this is Modern Economic Theory (or what ever AOC is sprouting this month). He must also be hot with the New Math.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 26 Dec 2019, 15:47:57

Is this jug-head serious?


as serious as any credible economist around. You, on the other hand, think the world's economy could exist at a reasonable level without debt. Probably why you "best selling" research fell flat on its face (i.e not credible). Do you actually think you are right? If so you really need to examine your educational background. I suspect box top university conned you on a couple of economics courses.

Debt reduces credit availability; which means less is borrowed, and less is invested.


more stupidity. Here's a task. Try and get a loan if you have no credit score. Good Luck. You need to have had some debt and a good record of dealing with it in order to obtain credit. This is what credit rating is all about. Exxon has 47 billion of long term debt....does that mean there is no credit available for them? Of course not it has a AAA credit rating. It could go to the market tomorrow and take out hundreds of millions in additional debt and likely get a very preferable rate.

What do you think companies do with the debt they take on....put it in mattresses, stack it up and worship it? No, they invest it so they can make a return that outweighs the debt carrying costs. So more debt that is issued the more is invested. As I pointed out Africa has grown by the appropriate use of debt as have many countries who couldn't have grown initially without it.

It is very clear you have a kindergarten understanding of this. Why do you continue to post if you actually have no understanding of why companies/governments take on debt and why that can be a good thing?
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Dec 2019, 17:30:16

shortonoil wrote:
outcastsearcher wrote:"Everyone", most certainly is NOT "going into debt", whether you say so or not.


If your government is going into debt, you are going into debt; by definition! Debt destroys productivity, capital investment, innovation. The entire world is going into debt, and at a horrendous rate, and we will all pay for it one way, or the other. Get out of jail free cards only exist when playing Monopoly!

And you normally neglect to discuss assets, earnings, growth, improving ratios, etc. when they are positive, in your FUD and doom mongering.

So there's that.

You're right. I owe a portion of the US debt, which they entered into against my wishes, as I've wanted balanced budgets as the norm (and small surpluses in good times, to deal with issues like the great recession).

Of course, OTOH, the government owes me a lot (me being the average person nearing traditional retirement age) in things like Social security and Medicare. So it's not like it's all on one side of the ledger, as you generally like to claim/assume.

Want to be credible? Pay your debt. Be right now and again, re your predictions. Be right now and then, re credible sources, re your claims.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Dec 2019, 17:37:52

rockdoc123 wrote:
Is this jug-head serious?


as serious as any credible economist around. You, on the other hand, think the world's economy could exist at a reasonable level without debt. Probably why you "best selling" research fell flat on its face (i.e not credible). Do you actually think you are right? If so you really need to examine your educational background. I suspect box top university conned you on a couple of economics courses.

Debt reduces credit availability; which means less is borrowed, and less is invested.


more stupidity. Here's a task. Try and get a loan if you have no credit score. Good Luck. You need to have had some debt and a good record of dealing with it in order to obtain credit. This is what credit rating is all about. Exxon has 47 billion of long term debt....does that mean there is no credit available for them? Of course not it has a AAA credit rating. It could go to the market tomorrow and take out hundreds of millions in additional debt and likely get a very preferable rate.

What do you think companies do with the debt they take on....put it in mattresses, stack it up and worship it? No, they invest it so they can make a return that outweighs the debt carrying costs. So more debt that is issued the more is invested. As I pointed out Africa has grown by the appropriate use of debt as have many countries who couldn't have grown initially without it.

It is very clear you have a kindergarten understanding of this. Why do you continue to post if you actually have no understanding of why companies/governments take on debt and why that can be a good thing?

And of course, who could buy a home before they're well into middle age, especially in a big expensive city, without a mortage? The 1%, perhaps?

As you say, appropriate debt is not only good, it's needed in advanced economies.

Shorty, since in reality you understand very little about economics, you might start here:

https://articles2.marketrealist.com/201 ... -machine/#
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 09:58:46

For those who missed it: the world is irrevocably, absolutely, without recourse, bankrupt! It will be paid off with a poverty that hasn't been experienced since the last dark ages.

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We are about to get a little lessen in the merits of hubris, and the application of well distributed ignorance. Our obsession with destroying everything that we meet with wanton consumption has bought us a one way ticket into the abyss. The laws of nature are not ours to change!

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