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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 08:49:21

New highs Fed balance sheet, new high $SPX.
Fed balance sheet increased by $43B in the last week.
That's an annualized pace of $2.2 trillion.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 08:51:26

New all time highs on repo purchase agreements.
$236B
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 10:07:32

New all time highs in the stock market too. LOL Can't wait for part 12 of this fail-boat thread.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 10:12:33

That's an annualized pace of $2.2 trillion.


This coming year it will be over $5 trillion. The FED just replaced $2.2 trillion that somehow, someway just disappeared, and the media gives us six hours of old political fossils contradicting themselves. The age of enlightenment has been put on permanent hold!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 10:51:15

Historically the trajectory we are on here in the US does not play out "well". What the endgame looks like is anyone's guess, but the current paradigm cannot continue indefinitely. Its possible the charades can go on for quite some time, but there will come a point when the markets will react to the Federal budget completely breaking down. We ARE headed there unless some serious and hard legislation is enacted to curb spending and get a grip on the exponential growth of Medicare. So far it appears we will do nothing unless its politically expedient. Our system is classically broken along the lines of the final years of the Roman Empire. Enjoy it while it lasts.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 12:15:56

AirlinePilot wrote:So far it appears we will do nothing unless its politically expedient. Our system is classically broken along the lines of the final years of the Roman Empire. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Final years of Roman Empire were lasting close to 2 centuries (from death of Diocletian onwards) .
I think, it will be faster with US because of next to none redundancy in the system.
One way or another Goths and Vandals are already here.
In Europe these are Muzzies and in the US Latinos.
White race have started as Goths and will end up as Romans.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 12:39:14

AirlinePilot wrote:Historically the trajectory we are on here in the US does not play out "well". What the endgame looks like is anyone's guess, but the current paradigm cannot continue indefinitely. Its possible the charades can go on for quite some time, but there will come a point when the markets will react to the Federal budget completely breaking down. We ARE headed there unless some serious and hard legislation is enacted to curb spending and get a grip on the exponential growth of Medicare. So far it appears we will do nothing unless its politically expedient. Our system is classically broken along the lines of the final years of the Roman Empire. Enjoy it while it lasts.



The problem is, everything is already built into the debt. Social security, Medicare, Medicaid, military, pensions, interest payment on the debt. And debts and deficits are exploding. This is another reason they’ll never raise
Interest rates again.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 15:20:23

Armageddon wrote:New highs Fed balance sheet, new high $SPX.
Fed balance sheet increased by $43B in the last week.
That's an annualized pace of $2.2 trillion.

So it is to be endless cherry picking, lack of context, lack of balance, etc. from you then.

Re the new market highs, with the S&P 500 up 30% in the past year, how's that market crash prediction coming again? And again, if you want to pick economic cherries (poorly as your predictions turn out), why not start an appropriate thread for that?

Meanwhile, in the real world, your doomcasting is looking worse and worse if you could be intellectually honest enough to look beyond your errant preconceptions and actually learn something useful about economics.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 15:23:28

shortonoil wrote:
That's an annualized pace of $2.2 trillion.


This coming year it will be over $5 trillion. The FED just replaced $2.2 trillion that somehow, someway just disappeared, and the media gives us six hours of old political fossils contradicting themselves. The age of enlightenment has been put on permanent hold!

If your claims are any sign of enlightenment, yes, we're in big trouble. Fortunately, history shows us they're not. :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 15:35:23

The Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index fell to -8 in Dec, its lowest level in 4 years, and the 6th consecutive monthly decline. Consumers and government spending borrowed money is temporarily masking a weakening economy. It won't be pretty when the mask comes off!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Tuike » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 16:00:11

Armageddon wrote:The Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index fell to -8 in Dec, its lowest level in 4 years, and the 6th consecutive monthly decline. Consumers and government spending borrowed money is temporarily masking a weakening economy. It won't be pretty when the mask comes off!

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Here: https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/ ... 3790863360
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 16:14:19

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:New highs Fed balance sheet, new high $SPX.

So if according to your grand sweeping knowledge of economics, you know that the Fed raising its balance sheet causes the market to accelerate upwards, then WHY are you repeatedly calling for Fed money printing and hyperinflation AND a "stock market crash"?

You're contradicting yourself and all that economic wisdom you supposedly possess.

And I know, you'll claim you haven't been predicting a stock market crash, because prevarication / being misleading is right up there with cherry picking and poor or no citations for you, and yet you're on a site with a search function, so denying it is pointless, even for you. (Not to mention the title of the thread you endlessly spam above).

The predictions of REAL economists that the money printing will only go so far, and then the economic growth can continue apace are much more in tune with a scenario that at least isn't directly contradictory, even if it ends up being wrong. 8)

Them having actually gone to school, gotten credible degrees in economics. Even advanced degrees in many cases. You know, that sort of thing. :roll:

I think you just cherry pick any negative economic vision you think you can spread FUD about with all the thoughtfulness of a dog seeing a squirrel. Which is fine, re free speech and all. What's mystifying is why you clearly imagine (and deem) yourself to be so credible.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 16:15:37

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 16:45:44

US Steel Shares Plunge, Dividend Slashed, Buybacks Halted, 1,500 Workers Cut Amid Deepening Manufacturing Recession

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-st ... -deepening
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 17:04:38

Retailpocalypse - A Record 9,300 Stores Closed Across US In 2019


https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... LZ_i2vEU3M



This thing is barely getting started. Can’t imagine what it’s going to look like when it really starts hitting.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 18:26:26

From Merrill Lynch
We continue to track 4Q GDP growth at 1.5%. [Dec 20 estimate]

From Goldman Sachs:
Following today’s data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.8% (qoq ar). [Dec 20 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% for 2019:Q4 and 1.6% for 2020:Q1. [Dec 20 estimate]
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 22:17:16

Class 8 Market Continues Collapse As Navistar Cuts 1,300 More Jobs

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/cla ... -more-jobs
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Sat 21 Dec 2019, 06:14:46

The most important economic data point printed this week - nominal personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending).

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 21 Dec 2019, 08:27:13

Class 8 Market Continues Collapse As Navistar Cuts 1,300 More Jobs


Commercial trucking, autos, banking, global freight, aviation, Shale oil, political systems, retail; and just about everything is shutting down. To top it off the world is losing 25% of its protein supply. A cold, gray winter day is a fitting reminder of where it is all going!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 21 Dec 2019, 08:37:57

marmico wrote:The most important economic data point printed this week - nominal personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending).

Image




Household debt has now ballooned to its highest level EVER.. US citizens are now carrying their highest debt loads in recorded history

That’s great, huh?
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