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Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby Azothius » Sun 15 Dec 2019, 14:27:30

Looking for some insight here:

We know why climate change is amplified at the poles.

But is climate change also amplified in Australia?
Or is it simply that Australia is (seemingly) more susceptible to its effects?
Perhaps they amount to the same thing, but which is it?

* 3 to 5 Years of Drought in different areas
* Also years of unprecedented heat waves
* Repeated deluges of rain

Granted, the rest of the globe, including the US, has had its share of extreme weather events as well.
But it seems even more severe in Australia.


Currently...

Aussie Bushfire Update:
Sydney's drinking water in danger:
We're not going to get these fires put out!
Baby bats being left for dead in thousands:
Expecting highest temp ever this week


http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/12/aus ... nking.html

"People should be under no illusions, we're not going to get these fires put out." "We're going to do as much as we can to protected as many homes as we can, but I think for those residents in those areas and firefighters, it's going to be a really tough week."



Baby bats are being left for dead by their mothers in their thousands on the New South Wales coast in an 'abandonment event' as drought and bushfire remove crucial vegetation for the keystone species.



Australia is bracing for its highest recorded temperature ever which is currently 50.7C, (123 deg F)

Australia's nightmare summer is about to get worse, after the country's worst November in living memory suffering record-breaking wildfires, a crippling drought, toxic-smog and a long heatwave with temperatures above 40 deg C, (104 deg F) in many parts another record is about to be broken. The Aussies are bracing themselves from a hot air mass which will fuel another devasting heatwave



Sydney's drinking water in danger from the Bushfires

Sydney’s drinking water supply is at risk of the same “worst-case scenario” facing some New South Wales regional communities, where large amounts of bushfire ash have been swept into dams by heavy rainfall, a water expert has warned. Stuart Khan, a water quality security expert and environmental engineer from the University of NSW, said recent bushfires had left large deposits of ash in the Warragamba Dam catchment, which supplies 80% of the city’s drinking water.




also this year...

Ferry crossing in far-north Queensland closed after 500mm of rain in 24 hours pushed river to highest level in 118 years
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/28/daintree-river-flooding-hundreds-cut-off-after-deluge-breaks-peak-record


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/unpreceden ... australia/
"Unprecedented" floods kills 300,000 cows in Australia
After more than five years of drought ,heavy rains over an almost two-week period turned dusty and parched land in Queensland state into vast swathes of mud


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-12/ ... n/11791512
Brisbane's overnight rainfall has equalled what it has received in the last six months, with a major thunderstorm bringing more than 100 millimetres to some parts of the city. East Brisbane had the biggest falls with 130mm — 112mm of that was recorded in one hour — while Brisbane city had 100mm.
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby dissident » Sun 15 Dec 2019, 15:00:17

Australia is a transitional desert zone. Small shifts in the distribution of rain due to climate change can have very large impacts. In other regions the same shifts may not be that noticeable.

Otherwise there is no particular magic associated with Australia. It will be interesting to see what happens in India in the coming decades. There is a very high risk of the collapse of their agriculture.

https://voxdev.org/topic/agriculture/cl ... griculture

But I doubt their average numbers. Nothing about climate change will be at the 20% level of human impact by 2100.
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby sparky » Mon 16 Dec 2019, 06:36:05

.
Not really ,
the bush-fires this year are fierce because there has been six good years of rain followed by a one year drought over the range
Did drive in northern New South Whale , everybody was on water restriction and the dry vegetation fuel in the forests was massive , a real tinder box waiting for a spark
Temperature wise nothing much , but there has been some weather shifting
we used to have a massive thermal shield of high pressure over the continent in summer , no more
Sydney had a summer downpour every other week , but no more either

It's hard to say , the Australian climate is pretty extreme ,
there are historical record of ten years drought at the turn of the century
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 16 Dec 2019, 14:35:36

If you think global warming in Australia is bad now, just wait a few years.

Its going to get worse.

Same as everywhere else. Its going to get worse.

There will be local variations depending on local geography and other factors.

But its going to get worse and worse.

And warming is going to happen faster in coming years then it did in the past.

So do your preps. Make a plan. Be ready for it.

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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 16 Dec 2019, 15:06:14

@ Plantagenet, I fully agree with that perspective.

I'm just wondering if they can start filming "Real Mad Maxes Of Australia" while the rest of us still have cable.

Kidding. That was a bit macabre. Sorry.
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 16 Dec 2019, 15:28:33

there are model projections and there is reality

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Roy Spencer latest update on satellite data compared to models run for same altitude
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 16 Dec 2019, 18:23:40

Azothius wrote:Looking for some insight here:

We know why climate change is amplified at the poles.

But is climate change also amplified in Australia?
Or is it simply that Australia is (seemingly) more susceptible to its effects?
Perhaps they amount to the same thing, but which is it?

* 3 to 5 Years of Drought in different areas
* Also years of unprecedented heat waves
* Repeated deluges of rain

Granted, the rest of the globe, including the US, has had its share of extreme weather events as well.
But it seems even more severe in Australia.


Currently...

Aussie Bushfire Update:
Sydney's drinking water in danger:
We're not going to get these fires put out!
Baby bats being left for dead in thousands:
Expecting highest temp ever this week


http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/12/aus ... nking.html

"People should be under no illusions, we're not going to get these fires put out." "We're going to do as much as we can to protected as many homes as we can, but I think for those residents in those areas and firefighters, it's going to be a really tough week."



Baby bats are being left for dead by their mothers in their thousands on the New South Wales coast in an 'abandonment event' as drought and bushfire remove crucial vegetation for the keystone species.



Australia is bracing for its highest recorded temperature ever which is currently 50.7C, (123 deg F)

Australia's nightmare summer is about to get worse, after the country's worst November in living memory suffering record-breaking wildfires, a crippling drought, toxic-smog and a long heatwave with temperatures above 40 deg C, (104 deg F) in many parts another record is about to be broken. The Aussies are bracing themselves from a hot air mass which will fuel another devasting heatwave



Sydney's drinking water in danger from the Bushfires

Sydney’s drinking water supply is at risk of the same “worst-case scenario” facing some New South Wales regional communities, where large amounts of bushfire ash have been swept into dams by heavy rainfall, a water expert has warned. Stuart Khan, a water quality security expert and environmental engineer from the University of NSW, said recent bushfires had left large deposits of ash in the Warragamba Dam catchment, which supplies 80% of the city’s drinking water.




also this year...

Ferry crossing in far-north Queensland closed after 500mm of rain in 24 hours pushed river to highest level in 118 years
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/28/daintree-river-flooding-hundreds-cut-off-after-deluge-breaks-peak-record


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/unpreceden ... australia/
"Unprecedented" floods kills 300,000 cows in Australia
After more than five years of drought ,heavy rains over an almost two-week period turned dusty and parched land in Queensland state into vast swathes of mud


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-12/ ... n/11791512
Brisbane's overnight rainfall has equalled what it has received in the last six months, with a major thunderstorm bringing more than 100 millimetres to some parts of the city. East Brisbane had the biggest falls with 130mm — 112mm of that was recorded in one hour — while Brisbane city had 100mm.


My layperson understanding is only places with a latitude higher than 45 degrees are subject to polar amplification. For Australia that excludes even Tasmania from the Polar Amplification region.

IIUC what is going is the wet tropic zone is expanding south from the equator and pushing the dry desert band closer to the pole. If you look at an Australia climate map the field crop zones are concentrated in the far south with the Desert covering a broad band between temperate and tropics. As the tropics expand the temperate belt is being shoved south into the sea. Australia still has more or less the same amount of desert, but the temperate south is being replaced by more tropical zone in the north.
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 16 Dec 2019, 18:24:14

The fact that tropospheric warming isn't proceeding as rapidly as most models predict is well known.

why-troposphere-warming-differs-between-models-and-satellite-data

However, if you look closely at your plot you'll find the troposphere is still warming right along with the oceans, the ground surface, the Arctic, the Antarctic, and virtually every other part of the earth system. Most of these areas are warming pretty much as models predict, a few places are warming more rapidly then models predict, and a few areas, including some parts of the troposphere, are warming less rapidly then models predict.

The bottom line is the earth as a whole is clearly warming....and even the troposphere is warming.

Its reality.

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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 16 Dec 2019, 19:23:40

However, if you look closely at your plot you'll find the troposphere is still warming right along with the oceans, the ground surface, the Arctic, the Antarctic, and virtually every other part of the earth system. Most of these areas are warming pretty much as models predict, a few places are warming more rapidly then models predict, and a few areas, including some parts of the troposphere, are warming less rapidly then models predict.


NOt sure what the heck you have been smoking. It is very clear from that diagram that the measurements do not match the model forecasts except for the very low side ones which have a ECS of around 2. So make up all the crap you want....the data doesn't support it.
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 16 Dec 2019, 19:42:33

It is very clear from that diagram that the measurements do not match the model forecasts except for the very low side ones which have a ECS of around 2. So make up all the crap you want....the data doesn't support it.


Your reading comprehension skills are getting worse and worse.

Spewing obscenities from your potty mouth over something you didn't understand in the first place is just silly. Try to calm down and read more carefully.

I'm going to reprint a few key lines from my post below and give you another chance. Try reading more slowly this time, or perhaps you might try reading out loud. For some reason you just didn't get it the first time. I didn't dispute the tropospheric data doesn't fit most models.....its warming but somewhat more slowly then the models predict. I can't understand why you didn't understand that my post isn't disputing the fact that the troposphere is warming more slowly then models predict, when it was written very clearly. Lets try again please---read the text below more carefully this time, OK?

The fact that tropospheric warming isn't proceeding as rapidly as most models predict is well known.

...if you look closely at your plot you'll find the troposphere is still warming right along with the oceans, the ground surface, the Arctic, the Antarctic, and virtually every other part of the earth system. Most of these areas are warming pretty much as models predict, a few places are warming more rapidly then models predict, and a few areas, including some parts of the troposphere, are warming less rapidly then models predict.

The bottom line is the earth as a whole is clearly warming....and even the troposphere is warming.

Its reality.


Get it now? :lol: :-D :P :roll: 8)

Cheers!
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 16 Dec 2019, 20:44:56

..if you look closely at your plot you'll find the troposphere is still warming right along with the oceans, the ground surface, the Arctic, the Antarctic, and virtually every other part of the earth system. Most of these areas are warming pretty much as models predict, a few places are warming more rapidly then models predict, and a few areas, including some parts of the troposphere, are warming less rapidly then models predict.

The bottom line is the earth as a whole is clearly warming....and even the troposphere is warming.

Its reality.


Good grief, is rational thought just something you missed out on at some point?

The plot I showed does not have the oceans, the ground surface, etc. It is a plot of satellite data measuring the troposphere and the models run are all for the troposphere. What is absolutely clear from the plot which compares apples to apples (without imagining some other data that isn't there and some imaginary correlation that isn't shown) is that the actual measurements from satellite and reanalysis run much cooler than is predicted from more than 90% of all the models. It is that simple. In case you haven't figured out what that means....using models to predict the future is wildly suspect given they are not reproducing actual data. The underlying meaining is likely that the ECS in most of these models is too high.

As to your comment about "potty mouth"...I said crap..a common phrase never censored anywhere......grow up and grow a pair. :roll:
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 16 Dec 2019, 22:38:11

Your reading comprehension skills are zippo, and your potty mouth is overflowing again. Please flush.

Cheers! :roll:
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 17 Dec 2019, 01:49:58

I don't know about "Amplified" but according to this chart from the BBC it is getting warmer. [I tried it as an image but it was to huge to be of much value, so just click on the link]

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/923A/production/_110143473__105236301_aus_temp-nc.png

ps it is from a story about a 12-year old who escaped the fires near Perth by driving his brother's car https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50806199
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 18 Dec 2019, 11:42:07

It's sizzling: Australia experiences hottest day on record

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sizzling-aus ... 10845.html

Australia experienced its hottest day on record and temperatures are expected to soar even higher as heatwave conditions embrace most of the country.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said the average temperature across the country of 40.9 degrees Celsius (105 Fahrenheit) Tuesday beat the record of 40.3 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) from Jan. 7, 2013.

On Wednesday temperatures soared to 47.7 Celsius (118 Fahrenheit) in Birdsville, Queensland, 46.9 Celsius (116 Fahrenheit) in Mandora, Western Australia and similar levels in southern and central Australia.



Australia heatwave: Nation endures hottest day on record

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50817963

Forecasters had predicted the most intense heat would come later in the week, meaning the record could be broken again.


Image



‘Like a furnace’: Australia set to see hottest day ever with 50C forecast as devastating bushfires rage
https://www.yahoo.com/news/furnace-aust ... 10314.html

Will it actually be a "once in a lifetime" event?

A “once in a lifetime” heatwave is set to sweep across Australia over the coming days, making almost the entire country “like a furnace” with temperatures on course to break records.



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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby sparky » Thu 19 Dec 2019, 05:45:38

.
the temperature in Sydney didn't reach 40dC which is not unusual
the max was 46dC for Eucla at the gate of the Nulabor , again not really exceptional
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby Zarquon » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 00:45:01

https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/ ... production

Image

Image

Wheat production is down almost by half since 2016. Bad enough, but you might say that's farming for you. Seven good years and seven bad years, etc.

But area harvested hit a plateau from 2008-2011 and since then it's down, down, down.

And if you look at other charts from the link above: corn and rye are stable, but grown on very small area. Rice disappeared since 2016. Cotton is on the way to zero.
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 10:06:07

@ Zarquon - very striking graphs
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 10:15:11

Aussie Bushfire Update no 10: First location hits 50 deg C, (122 deg F): Aus top 15 hottest places global: Cruel twist Milford Sound New Zealand, Australia's neighbours the wettest place in the world
http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/12/aus ... first.html

Nullarbor, a small village in South Australia became the first location to hit 50 deg C, 122 deg F in December's record-breaking heatwave, Eucla Amo was a very close second with 49.9 deg C. In fact, Australia was the hottest country on the planet in the last 24 hours with the top 15 hottest locations of the day going to Australia, with Austin Plains 15th recording a temperature of 47. 3 deg C, (117 deg F). The temperatures are set to increase into today and Saturday and in a cruel twist, if you can stand the irony, Milford Sound in New Zealand, Australia's nearest neighbours was the wettest place in the world,



Image


Climate Amplified or not, this heatwave is all the more staggering and punishing within the context of:
* years long drought
* recent recurring heatwaves
* early record fire season with fires which humans cannot extinguish .
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 13:34:37

Jo Nova points to historical data in Australia which the BOM doesn't report for one reason or another. Much of this data is in instruments that were used for over 200 years with no observable affects from heat islands. BOM apparently hasn't made an effort to include the data even if it required adjusting.

Image

So likely heatwaves in Australia are not related to AGW given human-induced emissions were very small back then.
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Re: Is Climate Change Amplified in Australia?

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 22 Dec 2019, 18:37:56

Image
Change in temperature (degrees per century) from 1900-2014. Gray areas indicate where there is insufficient data to detect a long-term trend. NOAA Climate.gov map, based on NOAAGlobalTemp data from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.
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