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Re: Brexit

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 15:08:09

Subjectivist wrote:When is the next Brexit decision required to be made? I kept seeing headlines about how October 31 was the last chance and everything would be automatic after that. Obviously that wasn't true based on headlines this month, so what is the real end date?

31st January is the next official deadline, but if the conservatives have a clear victory on 12 December it could be sooner.

Then the transition period begins, another minefield of deals and agreements that have to be negotiated before the end of 2020.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 19:43:56

The collapse of the anti-Brexit campaign

Unless Remainers can unite (and quickly), their cause is lost

James Forsyth
Ever since the Brexit referendum, the two strongest political forces in Britain have been Leave and Remain. Loyalty to political parties has faded, but feelings about the referendum result are almost stronger now than they were on June 23, 2016. For Remainers, these are tense times: for years, there has been the hope of a second referendum and stopping Brexit. But if the Tories win a majority next month, then the UK will leave the European Union on January 31 and our future relationship with the EU will be negotiated by the man who led the Leave campaign. By the time of the next general election, Brexit will be a settled fact.

If Remainers could organize themselves into a single political force, they would be almost unstoppable: 45 percent of the public identify as Remainers, easily enough to win a majority under first past the post. Leavers are about 41 percent, while only 26 percent of voters describe themselves as Tory and 23 percent as Labour. A great many Remainers intend to stick together: as Matthew Parris has said, a new group of voters have formed a ‘band of brothers’. The cause will endure for them, long after Brexit.

But the Remain side has been unable to unite behind any one party or leader. This is a particular problem for them now that Boris Johnson is the Tory leader. He has largely succeeded in the mission for which he was elected: to make the Tories into an indisputably Leave party and to crush support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. Every Tory candidate is now signed up to leaving the European Union with Boris Johnson’s deal, while the doubters have been rather brutally cast out. An extraordinary 71 percent of those who backed Brexit in 2016 are now voting Tory. Yet on the Remain side, no party can command the support of half of those who voted to stay in back in 2016. In our first-past-the-post electoral system, this asymmetry could prove fatal to Remain.

There have been attempts to form a Remain alliance: the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Plaid Cymru have stood down for each other in about 60 seats. But this pact is only likely to make a difference in a handful of places: any Remain alliance that doesn’t include Labour is Hamlet without the Prince. Even when it comes to tactical voting, there is no single Remain voice, no one group from which to take advice. There are at least three different sites advising Remainers on how best to use their vote.

The prospect of Remain tactical voting is much more worrying to cabinet ministers than the Labour party is. If this election sees a split in the center left, then the Tories will end up with a comfortable majority. But if all Remainers vote tactically, then Boris Johnson will fall short of the numbers he needs.

The very fact that we are having an election demonstrates the limits of Remain unity. Boris Johnson was trapped in parliament, unable to pass his Brexit deal unamended. But he got the election he wanted when the Remain opposition’s united front against an election cracked. The Lib Dems and the Scottish Nationalists both decided to go for a December election, thinking the timing would work best for them. Labour ended up with little option but to embrace the idea. Time and time again, partisan advantage has proven fatal to the idea of a full-blown Remain alliance.

The other problem is Jeremy Corbyn. He is determined to maintain ambiguity in Labour’s Brexit position, so as not to alienate the Brexit voters currently being targeted by the Tories. This position is often embarrassing for him when he’s asked to spell it out. He says that he wants to negotiate his own deal, then have a referendum but — remarkably — he won’t say which side he’ll back in that vote. In his television debate with Boris Johnson, he risked ridicule by repeatedly refusing to answer this question. The Liberal Democrats are quite right to say that under Corbyn, Labour is not a Remain party.

Aside from anything else, Remainers might find Corbyn’s political agenda too much to stomach. If Jo Swinson said that she would be prepared to put Corbyn in No. 10, she would end her chances of picking up Tory/Lib Dem marginals such as Cheltenham and Winchester. There are many voters who would prefer to remain in the EU but don’t think that a Corbyn premiership is a price worth paying. Of the Remainers who voted Tory last time, three in four regard a Corbyn premiership as worse for the country than Brexit. About a quarter of those who voted Lib Dem take that view too.

This is not just about Corbyn’s economics either. His desire to expropriate 10 percent of all large companies, to nationalize industries at a price set by parliament and to take the intellectual property of pharmaceutical companies are all problematic. Yet vastly more difficult than that is his attitude to anti-Semitism. Corbyn is a man who has invited to tea on the House of Commons terrace Raed Salah, a man who has spread the ancient libel that Jews mix their bread with the blood of gentile children. One can see why Swinson doesn’t think Corbyn is fit to be prime minister.

Jeremy Corbyn is Remain’s fundamental problem in this campaign. The most effective strategy for denying the Tories a majority for their Brexit deal would be mass tactical voting. But that would involve a lot of non-Labour people having to vote for Corbyn’s candidates and risk him ending up in Downing Street. Hence the problem: there can be no effective Remain alliance without Labour, but there can be no Labour involvement without Corbyn.

With three weeks to go, there are a few reasons for Remain to be hopeful still. The last election showed that in Scotland, voters are capable of working out how to vote tactically without any great central direction. The unionists united behind the candidate most likely to beat the SNP, to the delight of the Tories. If English Remainers prove as adept at tactical voting, then the Tories can forget their hopes of a majority. The approach of election day may concentrate minds. If it looks as if the Tories are heading for a comfortable majority, Remainers will start to imagine what this means. That might prompt a last-minute flurry of tactical voting.

The reason the stakes are so high is because the Remain faction in the Commons have refused to compromise since the referendum. At pretty much any point in the last parliament, they could have secured a soft Brexit. They could have engineered a deal that would have kept the UK in the customs union and made it follow EU rules in a host of areas. But they chose not to do that, betting everything on securing a new referendum and stopping the whole thing. They may well succeed in that. After all, the Tory Brexit ultras rejected the compromise that was the May deal, and are now on the verge of getting the much cleaner Brexit that they wanted.

If the Remainers fail, though, they will have no safety net. The UK will leave the EU with the ability to diverge from EU rules. This will make it that much harder to make the argument for rejoining, as the more the UK diverges from the EU, the more economic dislocation will be involved in going back in. It will be a much harder sell, as it would involve giving things up and transferring powers back to Brussels (most likely with no rebate on the annual fee). A campaign to rejoin would have to explain how Britain would get around the obligation on new EU members to adopt the euro as their currency. Most of all, it would have to persuade a public that is fed up with interminable negotiations with Brussels to embark on yet more. This doesn’t mean that rejoining will never happen — leaving the EU was once regarded as a very unlikely proposition — but it is hard to see it happening soon.

The rearguard action fought by Remainers since their referendum loss has been remarkable. But if the new parliament backs Boris’s Brexit, their cause will be lost. And this is where they will end up, unless they can find a way to turn things around in the next three weeks.

This article was originally published in The Spectator’s UK magazine. Subscribe to the US edition here.


https://spectator.us/remains-last-stand ... -campaign/
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 12:59:59

I hope this doesn't amount to the first salvos, the philosophical ones, fired in the next world war. The entire concept of the EU was created with avoiding such a war in mind. It might be ironic, based upon how targeted they were in the last war, that the British are the ones putting the first slivers into the union, but maybe not after all. Many in Britain still hold a lot of animosity toward the French, choosing to see them in the historical context of the Napoleonic wars rather than dealing with the current iteration. Germany is viewed somewhat similarly, by those same people.

The best thing that could happen right now, for the future of Europe, would be for Corbyn to suddenly resign.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby sparky » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 15:38:35

.
The possibility of Corbyn to resign is somewhat less than Queen Elisabeth having a sex change
as for old mental mindscape to sway British voters , yes there is some of that ,no doubt
but keep in mind fifty years of British media dumping rubbish on the whole EU project too
" mountains of butter and lakes of milk "
the Bruxelles machinery described as some public servants heaven and consumer hell
it was all good clean fun until the main stream media had to backpedal over a matter of weeks
even now there doesn't seems to be any understanding that there was no "May plan" or "Boris plan"
or any chance of a Corbyn re-negotiation ,
what is on the table is the EU offer which is not amenable to change , beside some punctuation
it's a take it or leave it and no British politician want to tell this to the voter

The EU got 26 independent government to agree, a remarkable feat
it's not one government , which cannot get it's act together , which can change that
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 21:22:12

evilgenius wrote:I hope this doesn't amount to the first salvos, the philosophical ones, fired in the next world war. The entire concept of the EU was created with avoiding such a war in mind. It might be ironic, based upon how targeted they were in the last war, that the British are the ones putting the first slivers into the union, but maybe not after all. Many in Britain still hold a lot of animosity toward the French, choosing to see them in the historical context of the Napoleonic wars rather than dealing with the current iteration. Germany is viewed somewhat similarly, by those same people.

The best thing that could happen right now, for the future of Europe, would be for Corbyn to suddenly resign.

I know this site tends to love epic doom stories and all, but somehow I can envision a LOT of scenarios between Brexit and World War III. I know the US is moving toward pot being legal, but maybe easing up on the "doomer fantasy bong" just a bit would make some sense.

I'm still hoping that as little progress is made toward a good solution, that in desperation, they'll allow another refererendum -- this time with many voters having a much better picture of many of the issues involved. Unpopular as that might be with certain Brits, it seems far better than "blowing up" Britian economically (metaphorically), and perhaps leading to a partial or full collapse of the EU as well, in time. (Even that being FAR SHORT of WW III, BTW).

Of course, another way this could end up going is to get some kind of agreement/compromise from the EU re the extent and rules for dealing with immigration. But of course, that would imply working together, so I don't hold out a lot of hope for that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 12 Dec 2019, 16:52:23

It's election day and there is only one hour (from the time of this post) before the polls close, we'll know whether a pro Brexit or the possibility of an anti Brexit coalition in about 12 hours.

Some people around here will be up all night watching the results come in, around 6AM tomorrow morning there should be a clear indication as to who won.

In the meantime the exit poll results will be announced just after 10PM tonight so should provide an indication as to how it's swinging.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 12 Dec 2019, 18:16:22

Exit poll shows a massive win for the Tories and Brexit is going to happen now.
Image
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 12 Dec 2019, 20:38:50

dolanbaker wrote:Exit poll shows a massive win for the Tories and Brexit is going to happen now.


To be honest that is more or less what I expected to happen. The Globalist elites got complacent about a decade ago believing they had firm control of the levers of power. They forgot that constantly sticking it to the commoners eventually leads to a majority of commoners waking up enough to thrash back.

Even worse the "remainers" in the UK political circles have done nothing to repair the rift, from everything I saw they basically said, "Trust us, we know whats best for you". This proves how very isolated and tone deaf they are, almost like telling 60% of the electorate they are "deplorable" and then being surprised when they vote against you.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby sparky » Thu 12 Dec 2019, 23:12:53

.
I'm a bit surprised at the low result of the Lib-Dem if ever there was a chance for them that was it and they blew it
otherwise the crumbling of the "left party is similar to what was sen in other countries
pandering to university graduates issues in the capital doesn't wash with the working class
which felt ,rightly ,taken for granted
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 01:26:11

T - An interesting side point if exit polls hold up: much of US main stream media was so against Boris they consistently pushed that he almost certainly "dead meat". Of course I still have my doubts about his ability to use his power wisely.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby sparky » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 07:06:00

.
Never-mind the competency ....check the media circus , the man is an artist

Actually I suspect he is playing up to a max anyone who end up on top of the pole must be very rich ,very lucky or very devious

P.S. nobody commented on it being Friday the thirteen
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 08:58:11

ROCKMAN wrote:T - An interesting side point if exit polls hold up: much of US main stream media was so against Boris they consistently pushed that he almost certainly "dead meat". Of course I still have my doubts about his ability to use his power wisely.


Do I see a pattern here?
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 13:34:18

sparky wrote:.
Never-mind the competency ....check the media circus , the man is an artist

Actually I suspect he is playing up to a max anyone who end up on top of the pole must be very rich ,very lucky or very devious

P.S. nobody commented on it being Friday the thirteen


Well, Labour certainly had that Friday feeling, despite leading the party to defeat, he still won't resign.
He is hoping to choose his successor before the next election.

As for Boris, well now he really has to prove that he can actually deliver a Brexit that satisfies most of the electorate.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 15:54:43

dolanbaker wrote:As for Boris, well now he really has to prove that he can actually deliver a Brexit that satisfies most of the electorate.

That's a very tall order. It will almost certainly be a big mess. And, if another vote were held today, it would go the other way, now that the electorate is more informed of the negative impacts.

But it will be interesting munching the popcorn and watching how the whole thing plays out over the next couple/few years.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 16:22:38

Outcast,

Not at all sure how you reduce that Brexit would be voted down. Wasn’t the Conservative victory a de facto validation of the populace’s desire FOR Brexit?
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 16:29:41

Newfie wrote:Outcast,

Not at all sure how you reduce that Brexit would be voted down. Wasn’t the Conservative victory a de facto validation of the populace’s desire FOR Brexit?

My understanding from articles I've read is that if a second Brexit referendum were held, the vote would go the other way, now that folks have seen a lot more information about the overall consequences.

That's all I'm saying/claiming. That could be wrong. I could have looked at the wrong articles, and it was months ago when I formed that opinion.

But when people only have a couple/few major candidates to choose from, there are a LOT of things on platforms people may not like the best, which they have to take along with their choice of candidate/party.

So no, I would not assume that the conservative victory necessarily vaidates that desire at all. I WOULD assume that another referendum which ONLY asked people to choose Brexit or not would be, of course. (But they can't do that because ... politics).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 16:30:39

One of the biggest downsides to this will be the fallout from a new referendum being called in Scotland.
It was a fine margin that last time voted down the referendum for Scottish independence and Scotland as a whole later voted against leaving the EU. The Scottish leadership views that means they need to seek another referendum on separation. It would be a right fine mess with England, Wales and southern Ireland being cut off from Scotland and Northern Ireland.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 16:32:59

rockdoc123 wrote:One of the biggest downsides to this will be the fallout from a new referendum being called in Scotland.
It was a fine margin that last time voted down the referendum for Scottish independence and Scotland as a whole later voted against leaving the EU. The Scottish leadership views that means they need to seek another referendum on separation. It would be a right fine mess with England, Wales and southern Ireland being cut off from Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Yup. It's the many consequences that will flow from Brexit for a time, which are the unfortunate thing. Hell, some think it could even lead to the breakup of the entire EU over time.

Again. Me -- popcorn, watching, hopefully learning useful things as this unfolds.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby FLAMEOUT » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 17:37:15

I assure you all that Brexit WAS the big issue and the majority of the British people want it done, and quickly too.

Whether Boris does as he promises remains to be seen.

Yesterday's vote will go down in UK history, Constituencies in the north that have voted labour for over 100 years returned a tory (conservative) MP - quite a number of them. Never been known before. Only one went the other way.

The other main issue was labours momentum leaders. Corbyn and his sidekick McDonnell are outright Marxist / Communist in their views and people could not stomach their policies etc. Most northern labour held towns voted to leave back in 2016. Labour became totally out of touch with their traditional voter base, yesterday it backfired on them VERY badly. Perhaps permanent damage has been done to the labour party.

Whatever we Brits are we are NOT Commies or Marxists, and want out of the socialist EU.

As to Scotland, give them the indy vote - it's their country. Up to them. Wales and Northern Ireland too if the people there wish it. I very much doubt any of them will vote to leave the UK though. They know who butters their bread.

Interesting times.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 18:51:25

They know who butters their bread.


the vast majority of oil and gas was and is still located in what would be the Scottish sector of the North Sea. I suspect that has been buttering the bread for a lot of folks in England for decades.
the argument from the Scots (I am one, just transplanted and no longer with a direct interest) is there isn't anything they get from England that can't be got elsewhere and a large part of the products they import and export are via Europe.
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