[Subjectivist]

Any guesses on where we will end 2019 and where we will peak in 2020?

[ROCKMAN]

Forbin - Here's the problem with longer term projections: the assumption that coal will NEVER make a come back. The alt energies may make big strides...or not. NG will complete well against coal...until it does not. "Abundant" NG will depend on two major factors. First, ever increasing in this FINITE natural resource. Second, global economic growth patterns. I fully believe that if demand is there and as well as being the most readily available COAL consumption will increase.

After all this is the pattern we've always seen for natural resources upon which economies have depended.

[Zarquon]

Hey, what brought you back fro the dead?

[sparky]

.
Nobody ever die just fade away
meanwhile truths remain
people will use what they can as they need , principles are the first thing to be tossed out

[diemos]

the assumption that coal will NEVER make a come back

That standard human pattern of thought, "The way things are now is the way things have always been and always will be.", assuming that things never have or will change. At the moment natural gas is cheaper than coal and is being used. When it's used up we'll go back to coal. When the coal is used up we'll wish we hadn't decommissioned the nukes and still had the option to turn them back on.

[Tanada]

October 2019: 408.53 ppm
October 2018: 406.00 ppm

[Tanada]

Week beginning on November 10, 2019: 410.25 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 408.91 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 385.76 ppm

[Tanada]

November 19: 410.17 ppm
November 18: Unavailable
November 17: 409.81 ppm
November 16: Unavailable
November 15: Unavailable

[Tanada]

Any guesses on where we will end 2019 and where we will peak in 2020?

I suspect that December will average around 211.5 ppmv and the last week of the year shall be likely 212+ ppmv.

As for next years peak, I am expecting 217 ppmv or if we are lucky perhaps 216 ppmv.

[Plantagenet]

.... the assumption that coal will NEVER make a come back.

Coal production is down a lot in the US but its still going up elsewhere in the world.

China alone is on track to add the equivalent of all of Europe's coal production, with India adding still more and other developing countries piling in on top of that. The bottom line is that global coal production is still increasing as more and more and more coal is needed for power generation.

impact/countries-cut-coal-china-burning-more

Of course this is disastrous for the climate, but the world agreed to it when they signed on to the Paris Accords, which included pledges by China and other countries to INCREASE coal production and INCREASE global CO2 production.

Cheers!

[jedrider]

I guess burning cow dung has only gotten India so far. Industrialization doesn't depend upon 'shit', you know

[Plantagenet]

I guess burning cow dung has only gotten India so far. Industrialization doesn't depend upon 'shit', you know

There are alternative energy sources like solar and wind, but since Obama and other world leaders signed on to the Paris Accords and said its OK for India to build huge coal fired plants to fuel their industrialization program, thats what the world is going to get.


India and China continue to build coal-fired power plants at a rapid rate ---polluting their air and driving global CO2 increases for the rest of the world as well....

Cheers!

[Tanada]

November 2019: 410.27 ppm
November 2018: 408.02 ppm

[Tanada]

Week beginning on December 1, 2019: 411.07 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 408.47 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 387.08 ppm

[Tanada]

December 09: 411.07 ppm
December 08: 411.37 ppm
December 07: 411.40 ppm
December 06: 411.48 ppm
December 05: 410.45 ppm

[dohboi]

And those numbers are pretty much guaranteed to keep increasing, even if by some miracle all our leaders and consumers suddenly saw the light and started doing all the right things...

Arctic permafrost has already become a net emitter of GHGs; which will act as an increasingly positive feedback for global warming:

"The Arctic may have crossed key threshold, emitting billions of tons of carbon into the air, in a long-dreaded climate feedback"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... -feedback/

(thanks to aslr at asif)

[Tanada]

December 2019: 411.76 ppm
December 2018: 409.07 ppm

[Tanada]

Week beginning on January 5, 2020: 413.37 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 409.94 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 388.21 ppm

[Tanada]

January 13: Unavailable
January 12: 413.13 ppm
January 11: 413.15 ppm
January 10: 413.54 ppm
January 09: 413.31 ppm

[ozcad]

Plant said:

China alone is on track to add the equivalent of all of Europe's coal production, with India adding still more and other developing countries piling in on top of that.

Agreed, but we (in Oz) may have more control over their coal use than they want us to realize. We currently enjoy digging it up and flogging it to them cheaply. We could refuse to sell them any coal beyond agreed emission targets. There would be some uncertain risk to our sense of well being.
With commercial interests controlling FF's in Oz, don't expect innovative politics, we are already captured.