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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby marmico » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 03:01:50

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 19:35:52

onlooker wrote:they believe because Doom has been kept at bay at least for some for a few decades, it will always be so.


Strawman yet again. Armageddon would not be posting in this thread unless he were waiting daily for the other shoe to drop. There's a big difference between debunking the idea that a crash is imminent (which I think all of the skeptics here are doing) and saying it will never come.



More worthless zerohedge. At least you posted an actual hyperlink.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 10:38:16

Central banks have been buying nearly 20% of the world's gold supply, approaching the highest levels since the Nixon era, compared with being net sellers from 1971 through 2010: Bloomberg Intelligence's


What do they know?


They know that the debt is growing exponentially, and that by 2021 it will require $135 in new debt to generate $1 in increased GDP. Without at least some gold to back their fiat all confidence will be lost in their currencies. Without that gold their currencies are only the representation of a number on a credit/ debit balance sheet, and the magnitude of debt will mean that there will be no one remaing that will be safe to do business with. The economy will shut down because no one can be assured that they are going to get paid at a settlement date. The growing debt will be destroying their claim on the money faster than the central banks can bring it into existence.

Gold is the only currency that has never lost its value. All fiat currencies must eventually revert to their intrinsic value, which is zero. Oil is the foundation of this modern day economy, and this economy's debt based fiat currencies. Those currencies will end with the ending of the oil age, and the oil age is fast coming to its conclusion. The best they can do is buy a little time until it becomes generally realized as to what is occurring. Money is the thread that sews together the fabric of this civilization, and once it has been destroyed all pretense for the cooperation, and trust that must exist for it to function will go with it. The central banks are pushing on a string that is growing ever shorter. Gold is their last chance to keep this Ponzi scheme running a little longer, and that time has now become a very small piece of little.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 11:21:46

Gold is the only currency that has never lost its value. 


Maybe on the planet Bizarro where you seem to reside. Where the rest of us live gold reached a high of $1889.70 in late 2011 and then fell below $1100.00 by 2016 a drop in value of 40%.

Do you just make this stuff up and hope nobody looks up the actual data?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 18:14:58

German industry hit by biggest downturn since 2009

Output falls 5.3% in year to October, weighing on eurozone growth outlook


Everywhere you look.....
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 19:35:46

Rival carriers rush to assist stranded Celadon drivers “Celadon has ~3,000 drivers & ~2,700 tractors across its North American operations...defaulted on loan covenants & couldn’t secure additional financing...official bankruptcy filing expected next week.


Expect much more of this in the coming months
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 19:37:59

shortonoil wrote:
Central banks have been buying nearly 20% of the world's gold supply, approaching the highest levels since the Nixon era, compared with being net sellers from 1971 through 2010: Bloomberg Intelligence's


What do they know?


They know that the debt is growing exponentially, and that by 2021 it will require $135 in new debt to generate $1 in increased GDP. Without at least some gold to back their fiat all confidence will be lost in their currencies. Without that gold their currencies are only the representation of a number on a credit/ debit balance sheet, and the magnitude of debt will mean that there will be no one remaing that will be safe to do business with. The economy will shut down because no one can be assured that they are going to get paid at a settlement date. The growing debt will be destroying their claim on the money faster than the central banks can bring it into existence.

Gold is the only currency that has never lost its value. All fiat currencies must eventually revert to their intrinsic value, which is zero. Oil is the foundation of this modern day economy, and this economy's debt based fiat currencies. Those currencies will end with the ending of the oil age, and the oil age is fast coming to its conclusion. The best they can do is buy a little time until it becomes generally realized as to what is occurring. Money is the thread that sews together the fabric of this civilization, and once it has been destroyed all pretense for the cooperation, and trust that must exist for it to function will go with it. The central banks are pushing on a string that is growing ever shorter. Gold is their last chance to keep this Ponzi scheme running a little longer, and that time has now become a very small piece of little.

Image




To sum it all up: The world is trapped because economies and growth remain 100% dependent on central banks growing their balance sheets.
2018 was the only year of net reduction in liquidity and it was a disaster.
Hence the renewed panic print attack.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 20:42:21

Armageddon wrote:Everywhere you look.....


Indeed. Everywhere YOU look.

Doomers see doom Army. Regardless of whether or not it exists, or might be just around the corner. You've been doing it for 15 years. The lack of ability to learn from why your other doom claims didn't work out is a classic perma-doomer personality trait.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 21:51:51

Since the Sept 17 repo crisis, the Fed has injected $208BN in liquidity via repos, and $114BN via T-Bill POMO/QE4


Nothing to see here folks, move along
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 01:17:37

rockdoc123 wrote:
Gold is the only currency that has never lost its value. 


Maybe on the planet Bizarro where you seem to reside. Where the rest of us live gold reached a high of $1889.70 in late 2011 and then fell below $1100.00 by 2016 a drop in value of 40%.

Do you just make this stuff up and hope nobody looks up the actual data?

Too be fair, though 99% of the time what he says is nonsense, if he means that historically, paper currencies all go to zero, that's correct. OTOH, gold, while highly volatile in the short term, has tended to increase with inflation over the long run, for many centuries. That's a hell of a track record, especially compared to paper currencies.

Now, since he's not exactly precise in his statements a huge proportion of the time, I'm only assuming this is what he's getting at.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 04:45:33

O-S. That was a good response about gold value.

On another subject:-

BBC wrote:China's exports fell in November as shipments to the US slowed sharply, adding to concerns about the effects of the two nations' trade war.

November exports from the world's second largest economy fell 1.1% from a year earlier, the fourth straight fall.

Exports to the US were down 23%, the worst such result since February and the twelfth monthly decline in a row.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50704397

While this could be down to temporary factors (like the "trade war") if it continues much longer it could become structurally ingrained. As China has, for the last years, been the main power-house in global economic growth this slowdown could spell trouble over a large area. But maybe with a large trade surplus there is not much to worry about in the short term.

China's trade surplus with the rest of the world fell, but was still more than $38bn for the month.


If the $$$$$s are not going into trade, I suppose they will have to go somewhere, and the stock market seems to be the destination of choice. (Will it hit the high of just a week ago?)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Cog » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 05:16:15

The beauty of a fiat money system is that can be manipulated continually by those who control such things. A Mad Max crash, as the doomers forecast and wish for daily, can be avoided forever if the government players and market movers wish it to be so. Gold and silver is worth basically nothing except in industrial applications. The only reason to own PM's is that they are speculated in just like stocks. But unlike stocks, their rate of return is somewhat dismal. Fiat is where its at. Which is why the doomers are consistently wrong and always will be. Recession yes. We will have those. But a Mad Max crash, with mutants zombie bikers, is not going to happen because those who control fiat currency and the stock and bond market don't wish it to happen.

If you are brilliant, as I suspect we all are on this board, you are balls deep in the stock and bond market because those who have wealth and make the decisions about budgets, fiat currencies, and set the agenda for the world economy, are in it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 07:49:53

The Lebanese banking system, with the central bank at the top, has been involved in a massive dollar Ponzi scheme. With debt at 150% to GDP the Ponzi blew up.

This triggered the protests in Lebanon.

One banker said: We knew that this was risky, but we couldn't act like priests in a cabinet.

The problem has affected the war torn Syria who has been dependent on Lebanon for access to dollars and trade (smuggling).

For nations that can't print dollars...the dollar is gold.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 08:16:44

BOOMING ECONOMY?

America's $800 billion trucking industry has been in a recession since the beginning of 2019. That is now affecting truck manufacturers & the people who work at them-Cummins told its employees last week that it would lay off 2,000 workers.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Cog » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 09:03:49

Armageddon wrote:BOOMING ECONOMY?

America's $800 billion trucking industry has been in a recession since the beginning of 2019. That is now affecting truck manufacturers & the people who work at them-Cummins told its employees last week that it would lay off 2,000 workers.


Do you have any idea how many people work in the trucking industry? I do, but I don't think you do.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 09:48:03

Do you have any idea how many people work in the trucking industry? I do, but I don't think you do.


Another disparaging comment with absolutely no content. How enlightening! You know, and no one else does: it's a secret!!! but of course THEY let you in on it. So impressive!

Cummins is the world's "premier" manufacture of diesel engines. When they start contracting the world is following. To know that requires some experience in industry; being locked in your mothers basement for the last 30 years doesn't provide much of what is needed.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 12:14:02

Too be fair, though 99% of the time what he says is nonsense, if he means that historically, paper currencies all go to zero, that's correct. OTOH, gold, while highly volatile in the short term, has tended to increase with inflation over the long run, for many centuries. That's a hell of a track record, especially compared to paper currencies.


that argument could be used for oil as well. For the longest time it sat around $20 so over the long run it has had a hell of a track record as well. But people don't hold onto either stocks or metals for decades on end with the hope of an overall increase in value. Instead those who want to make money trade in stocks and metals continuously. So my point is that gold doesn't "hold its value" given that someone who bought it as it near its high at say $1800 took a heavy loss by 2016. Now, of course, some of that value came back but the exact same thing has happened in oils since the recession. Gold and Silver are not somehow a magic place where your money will be safe, if that were the case you would see very little trading occurring. And if the doomers are correct and some sort of zombie apocalypse occurs in the future who in their right mind would want a bunch of gold? Someone who needs to eat isn't going to be interested in a nice gold ring or a solid gold rolex...the trading value will be zero in comparison to food and water and probably ammunition.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby aspera » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 12:43:14

Cog wrote:Do you have any idea how many people work in the trucking industry? I do, but I don't think you do.

Geez. This is so hard to figure out.... And instead of sniping you could have just done the math for us.

For Cummins (I know, not the whole trucking industry. But a bellwether nonetheless), Wiki reports ~58,600 employees. 2000 layoffs. ~3.4%. Not huge. Not insignificant. (Although highly significant to those 2000).
Oceans rise, empires fall. - Apocalypse Lullaby, Wailin' Jennys.
Plant a garden. Soon.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby marmico » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 13:28:23

Not insignificant. (Although highly significant to those 2000).


The monthly churn in the US labor market is almost 6 million positions per month. If the blue line is above the red line, there is net positions being added. Of course, vice versa.

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I wait in breathless anticipation of Armadillo giving a blow by blow account of the ~23,000 business bankruptcies in 2019.

http://abi-org.s3.amazonaws.com/Newsroo ... RESENT.pdf
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 16:26:54

Moody’s: Department Stores are dead

Moodys expects retailers' profits to be down 20% in 2019, compared with prior expectations for a 15% drop.

Wow
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