Zarquon wrote:Sorry, but I won't waste any time watching videos if the person recommending them doesn't even bother telling me what the heck they're about.
ralfy wrote:Given the lack of economic development worldwide, peak demand is highly unlikely.
Zarquon wrote:Sorry, but I won't waste any time watching videos if the person recommending them doesn't even bother telling me what the heck they're about.
Daniel Doom wrote:Zarquon wrote:Sorry, but I won't waste any time watching videos if the person recommending them doesn't even bother telling me what the heck they're about.
Afraid of having your pollyannish preconceptions thrown into upheaval?
Peakzilla wrote:The title of my thread describes the interview well: the peak is back, baby!
Peakvilla wrote:And you will be pleased (or perhaps displeased) to find that Mr. Gordon, a professional energy analyst, relies on perfectly mainstream sources such as WoodMac and Goldman Sachs, among others. He says that fracking only bought us a few years time, that frackable resources will not be sufficient to ramp up production and get us out of the next crisis, that the upward price inflection is likely to hit in 2020 and peakomania (my word) will return in force in 2021. And the beneficial effect of every EV sold thus far has been completely cancelled out by the upsurge in SUV buying during this period of subdued fuel prices. He says finding cobalt resources for a vast increase in EV's will also be challenging. Peak supply will drive peak demand, not the other way around.
He says that fracking only bought us a few years time, that frackable resources will not be sufficient to ramp up production and get us out of the next crisis, that the upward price inflection is likely to hit in 2020 and peakomania (my word) will return in force in 2021.
shortonoil wrote:Peak crude is already a reality. Peak Oil is following close behind!
ralfy wrote:Given the lack of economic development worldwide, peak demand is highly unlikely.
shortonoil wrote:He says that fracking only bought us a few years time, that frackable resources will not be sufficient to ramp up production and get us out of the next crisis, that the upward price inflection is likely to hit in 2020 and peakomania (my word) will return in force in 2021.
Unfortunately fracking never could alleviate the crude crisis.
shortonoil wrote: Fracking was intended to supplement the industry's condensate supply.
shortonoil wrote:The Hills Group
asg70 wrote:I watched most of the video. The guy makes some good points but as someone pushing oil assets he definitely is driven by conflict-of-interest (his anti-BEV talking points are all boilerplate FUD, for instance). But to be fair, Tony Seba's narrative is just as biased on the other end of the spectrum. The truth will probably settle somewhere in the middle. The fracking boom may indeed not have that much legs to it anymore, and we may have another oil shock (hopefully silencing the ETP die-hard nuts for good), but I actually think this would be the best possible thing to happen as it would spur on EV sales at a time when companies like VW are just ramping up.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I think the US isn't even close to being, magically, the only place significant frackable oil reserves exist -- I think it's only a matter of the price getting to a point that the risk/reward and the rules (such as European bans) change enough for the majors to decide to go after it in a serious way. Once they do that, the learning curve and therefore extraction cost curve (re efficiency) will tend to kick in, just as it has for crude fracking in the US.
AdamB wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote:I think the US isn't even close to being, magically, the only place significant frackable oil reserves exist -- I think it's only a matter of the price getting to a point that the risk/reward and the rules (such as European bans) change enough for the majors to decide to go after it in a serious way. Once they do that, the learning curve and therefore extraction cost curve (re efficiency) will tend to kick in, just as it has for crude fracking in the US.
Looks like the US isn't even a quarter of the world's assessed areas.
You could very well be correct. In which case between the USGS estimates of 500+ billion barrels of oil laying around in Venezuela that has socialist nitwits involved, USGS estimates of 500+ billion in reserve growth internationally, and now this 300+ billion, it sure looks like most of it will end up being left in the ground when peak demand clobbers the need for it.
I think the US isn't even close to being, magically, the only place significant frackable oil reserves exist -- I think it's only a matter of the price getting to a point that the risk/reward and the rules (such as European bans) change enough for the majors to decide to go after it in a serious way. Once they do that, the learning curve and therefore extraction cost curve (re efficiency) will tend to kick in, just as it has for crude fracking in the US.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:AdamB wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote: the usual doomer FUD that as soon as the US fracking boom peters out we're right back to the ususal supply cliff doom re peak oil isn't exactly baked in -- same as it ever was since the early 70's.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:IF we do have a new "oil shock" (which is entirely possible, IMO), that implies substantially higher oil prices. Instead of "crashing the economy" as the fast crash doomers claim. This will make the incentive to frack oil GLOBALLY much much stronger.
Daniel Doom wrote: And we just don't have enough cobalt and nickel for EV's to ramp up dramatically. If there are new cobalt and nickel resources out there, it will take many years to find and develop them--"if."
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