[mmasters]

"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....

[Plantagenet]

The part about global oil demand continuing to increase seems right to me.

There are hundreds of millions of people in China, India, Africa, etc. who are striving to achieve a western style lifestyle, including car ownership. That will continue to put an upward pressure on global oil demand for the foreseeable future.


Rush hour traffic in New Delhi, India

Cheers!

[AdamB]

"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....

FINALLY!!! Maybe a REAL peak oil! Sure...it isn't from scarcity, but still, the congregation can rejoice and sing and pretend that any peak oil reason was good enough for them all along!

[Outcast_Searcher]

"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....

You did see that the statement was re oil DEMAND, right?

Of course, let's remember that the traditional issue re "peak oil" was always doomers claiming SUPPLY would be too little, leading to economic "collapse", etc.

Now the issue is when demand will peak, which seems to imply that there should be sufficient supply for a long time. Not that we won't need lots of oil for a growing demand for petrochemicals globally for many decades yet.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Rush hour traffic in New Delhi, India
Cheers!

What I don't understand is how people can see the amount of cars and trucks burning gas and diesel every day and ponder that EVERY GALLON of such fuel burned produces roughly 20 lbs. of CO2, and then claim that humans can't possibly affect the climate, ergo AGW is a hoax. Oh, and think about the sheer magnitude of growth of such cars over the past 6 or so decades, and what that does to the numbers.

Of course, I also don't understand how high school graduates often can't make change if the cash register goes down, because they don't know that subtraction is the necessary operation. So there's that.

[mmasters]

"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....

FINALLY!!! Maybe a REAL peak oil! Sure...it isn't from scarcity, but still, the congregation can rejoice and sing and pretend that any peak oil reason was good enough for them all along!

Yes finally, maybe a real answer after all these years and it showed up as an article buried deep in my personalized google news feed lol.

[Tanada]

What I don't understand is how people can see the amount of cars and trucks burning gas and diesel every day and ponder that EVERY GALLON of such fuel burned produces roughly 20 lbs. of CO2, and then claim that humans can't possibly affect the climate, ergo AGW is a hoax. Oh, and think about the sheer magnitude of growth of such cars over the past 6 or so decades, and what that does to the numbers.

Lest we forget every gallon of gasoline or diesel burnt also produces roughly one gallon of water in the form of water vapor that condenses out as dew or precipitation at some point. This almost balances because as petroleum is extracted from the ground the void spaces usually fill with water. Even if the water is not injected to stimulate production the underlying water table rises to fill the void spaces. In its own weird way burning hydrocarbons releases not just the fossil carbon collected by ancient plants, it also releases the water used by those plants to manufacture sugars and fats.

[Tanada]

For those sick to death of politics lets try getting back to the focus of this website, shall we?

[Subjectivist]

Peak oil could come in 2028 due to pandemic

James Osborne 11/2/2020
3 minutes

WASHINGTON — The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic is suppressing oil demand to such a degree that some energy analysts are questioning whether it will accelerate society's transition from the fossil fuel.
a crane in the dark © Elizabeth Conley, Houston Chronicle / Staff Photographer

Analysis released Monday by Rystad Energy, an independent research firm in Norway, predicts that oil demand will now peak at 102 million barrels per day in 2028, two years earlier than they predicted before the virus struck.

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"The slow recovery will permanently affect global oil demand levels," said Artyom Tchen, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad. "The lockdowns will stunt economic recovery in the short-term and in the long-term and the pandemic will also leave behind a legacy of behavioral changes that will also affect oil use."

RELATED: On Gulf Coast, is carbon storage the next big thing?

Right now, global oil demand is averaging about 89.3 million barrels per day, a 10 percent decline from last year. And Rystad is predicting that it won't rebound to those levels until 2023, as government lockdowns intensify with rising infection rates ahead of winter in the northern hemisphere.

And there could be longer term shifts in energy use, Rystad says, as businesses rely more on teleconferencing platforms for meetings and tourists avoid airplanes for their vacations.

At the same time, industry and governments in Europe and Asia are not backing off their clean energy goals, despite the economic fallout.

Electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 14 percent of total global car sales by 2025, reaching 80 percent by mid-century, Rystad said.

"The pandemic will greatly alter the peak oil demand reckoning moment, both in terms of timing and volumes," Tchen wrote. "This will help oil substitution gain speed and inevitably take global consumption to lower levels quicker, hand in hand with the energy transition."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... r-BB1aCG13

[AdamB]

For those sick to death of politics lets try getting back to the focus of this website, shall we?

With the peak oilers hiding under their respective rocks, the focus of this website IS politics, climate change, and idiot economic ideas from parrots and StarvingPuutyTats!

The peak oil question has been answered. A couple of times now, and it is good to see it has been tackled by the folks who understand this issue, and within the appropriate context.

What, exactly, might the amateurs even have to offer nowadays? Have the remnants of TOD even gotten themselves the data available to answer this question, or are the Peak Barrel folks still fumbling around fitting bell shaped curves to everything in sight?

[ralfy]

"Real peak oil" started back in 1979.

https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/20 ... k-oil.html

[AdamB]

"Real peak oil" started back in 1979.

https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/20 ... k-oil.html

Efficiency increases because of the Iranian revolution in 1979 was not peak oil. However, 1979 was one of the several global peak oils on volume that have happened in the past half century.

[dashster]

What did the people like Colin Campbell who predicted a worldwide peak before 2020 miss? How much of the reserves that they didn't see were American shale and how much was regular crude in other parts of the world?

[Pops]

What did the people like Colin Campbell who predicted a worldwide peak before 2020 miss?

The curves are based on the hubbert linearization, which attempts to predict how much will eventually be extracted. It uses as it's input historical extraction numbers. Not surprisingly, what they come up with is a guess of the ultimate extraction of the stuff historically extracted, in the manner historically extracted—all things being equal...

Of course all things aren't equal. Hubbert even Most extraction is controlled by governments, all is controlled by markets and most of all the price; it is limited or expanded by technology, war & peace, booms/busts, fashions and fad. None of that can be predicted by looking at the past.

They got pretty close tho—all things being equal...




Right now there is oil stranded in various places due to government problems— just like there was in Russia and Iraq before the invasion. Oilish stuff is waiting to be mined in various places— at a price. LTO may or may not ever be profitable, I can't guess. The US could discontinue efficiency standards, or reimpose even stricter at a whim, who knows?

That's what it boils down to, who knows? I'm pretty sure nobody. And all the "they've been predicting it for 100 years" arguments are just as useless. They are using the exact same set of data as the linearization except to justify their prediction that because there has never been a peak, there never will or not soon. Again, pretty useless.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Right now there is oil stranded in various places due to government problems— just like there was in Russia and Iraq before the invasion. Oilish stuff is waiting to be mined in various places— at a price. LTO may or may not ever be profitable, I can't guess. The US could discontinue efficiency standards, or reimpose even stricter at a whim, who knows?

That's what it boils down to, who knows? I'm pretty sure nobody. And all the "they've been predicting it for 100 years" arguments are just as useless. They are using the exact same set of data as the linearization except to justify their prediction that because there has never been a peak, there never will or not soon. Again, pretty useless.

Yup. The world is complex. As always, thanks for your review/input re your expertise.

The one thing history and economics tells us re likely behavior is that when push comes to shove, IF there is more crude oil demand than supply, the price will tend to rise. And if the price rises, then at some point, there is strong incentive to explore more and TRY to produce more.

Historically for the past 40 years, the more global demand, the more global production, as an overall trend. Whether that will hold is of course, another question.

I'm hoping we get lucky and enough consumption gets replaced by green energy and related products of all types in coming decades that it prevents large lasting crude price rises, even if there is less reasonably easy oil to produce.

Now the interesting question re fairly quickly limiting ever-increasing demand is how quickly the global electrification of light passenger vehicles proceeds. Guesses / projections vary wildly, depending on peoples' personal interests and biases, of course. For example, many Tesla fanbois insist that by 2030 nearly ALL new personal vehicles will be BEV's due to a gigantic cost advantage over ICE's. (They NEED to believe that to justify an ever-increasing stock valuation on TSLA). Folks beholden to the oil patch tend to believe that will NEVER EVER happen, or at least that it will take a hundred years or more. As usual on such spectrums of prediction, I'm in the middle, thinking 3ish decades for the first world, and more like 5ish for the third world (given infrastructure issues). Also, it seems to me that the progress re batteries, solar energy, etc. tends to be incremental as a trend, re cost and efficiency, and I think that will continue as the overall trend. Solid state batteries from the likes of Toyota MIGHT give efficiency a nice jump by 2025, but there are other issues like how many useful charging cycles are likely, etc.

[AdamB]

What did the people like Colin Campbell who predicted a worldwide peak before 2020 miss?

1) Not incorporating well known principles from other fields of science. Call it scientific myopia.
2) Choosing not to study and understand the history of peak oil and other "running out" claims, dating back to 1886, and incorporating corrections. Call it the "those who refuse to learn from the past" problem.
3) They just had to prove why SEC Rule 156 exists in the first place.

How much of the reserves that they didn't see were American shale and how much was regular crude in other parts of the world?

It wasn't reserves. It was resources, and their inability to extrapolate the rate of change from them, into reserves. Geologists not being familiar with oil and gas development from source rock as pioneered by Americans dating as far back as 1880 is just plain professional snobbery. Forgetting the very origins of one's profession....

[AdamB]

They got pretty close tho—all things being equal...

Who is they? Colin Campbell predicted global peak oil for 1990...and here we all are, peak oil claims of 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2015 all in the past, standing as proof of how poorly folks understood this concept in the first place.

[mousepad]

proof of how poorly folks understood this concept in the first place.

I think peak is very simple to understand. A peak is where the derivative is 0. Like this:
f(x)d/dx = 0
Maybe you're not expert enough in math? And the concept puzzles you?
Happy New Year

[AdamB]

proof of how poorly folks understood this concept in the first place.

I think peak is very simple to understand.

I completely agree. I also think that those who didn't take the time to study the nuance have no more chance of getting a prediction of when it happens correct as a broken clock does of telling time.

A peak is where the derivative is 0. Like this:
f(x)d/dx = 0
Maybe you're not expert enough in math? And the concept puzzles you?
Happy New Year

A perfectly simple concept. Easy math. And yet neither Hubbert, nor Campbell, were able to use it to get the right answer, for the US, or the world. Oil, or natural gas.

There are ways of solving this problem, and none of them are deterministic in nature, and none of them are the random curve fitting that originates from the equation you listed. What part of your ignorance of that fact puzzles you?

[mousepad]

There are ways of solving this problem,

Are you telling me you KNOW how to solve this problem and KNOW how to predict the future?

What part of your ignorance of that fact puzzles you?

I'm in awe of your expertise.
I always thought true experts have much better things to do than quarrel on some anonymous forum.
That puzzles me.

HAPPY NEW YEAR