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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 06 Nov 2019, 11:46:59

"WILLIAMS SAYS MONETARY POLICY DOES HAVE SOME LIMITATIONS SO IT WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE FISCAL POLICY ALIGNED WHEN ADDRESSING DOWNTURNS"

They are doing one trillion dollar deficits right now. So...what kind of money is he talking about?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 06 Nov 2019, 12:03:06

Yoshua wrote:"WILLIAMS SAYS FED WOULD ADDRESS NEXT RECESSION BY CUTTING INTEREST RATES TO ZERO AND USING COMMUNICATION AND ASSET PURCHASES"

They are already doing it.



QE on steroids is coming
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 06 Nov 2019, 13:39:46

shortonoil wrote:
1). Articles I read talk about strong earnings being one of the thing driving the market to new highs (not crashing, re the subject of the thread).


$43 trillion in funny money injections into the world economy had absolutely nothing to do with it? OK. Depending, on how 2019 world GDP comes in, the leverage on that $43 trillion came in at 8.4 :1 against. Debt creation divided by increased GDP. Step to the end of the line, everything is ok. nothing to see here. The Stock Market is Up!

The stock market went up 13%, and earnings went up 0.001% on GAP. This economy is getting crazier by the day. How long can a completely dysfunctional economy continue to operate?

How much longer can you babble nonsense overall in your posts, and expect to be taken seriously?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 06 Nov 2019, 13:43:02

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
1). Articles I read talk about strong earnings being one of the thing driving the market to new highs (not crashing, re the subject of the thread).


$43 trillion in funny money injections into the world economy had absolutely nothing to do with it? OK. Depending, on how 2019 world GDP comes in, the leverage on that $43 trillion came in at 8.4 :1 against. Debt creation divided by increased GDP. Step to the end of the line, everything is ok. nothing to see here. The Stock Market is Up!

The stock market went up 13%, and earnings went up 0.001% on GAP. This economy is getting crazier by the day. How long can a completely dysfunctional economy continue to operate?

How much longer can you babble nonsense overall in your posts, and expect to be taken seriously?




Probably as long as you think the market is up from fundamentals
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 06 Nov 2019, 16:40:31

Probably as long as you think the market is up from fundamentals


It is fundamental; the FED dumps $160 billion per month into the market, and it goes ↑, and ↑; and etc. Now "think" may be a bit of an exaggeration in this particular instance. Shoveling out the back of a garbage truck would be more descriptive.

Debt doesn't matter; it is just one of those old wives tales; like soaking your ass in sheep dip to get rid of the cotties. $341 trillion is just a number; like how often do you like to eat! Completely meaningless!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 03:32:15

Armageddon wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
1). Articles I read talk about strong earnings being one of the thing driving the market to new highs (not crashing, re the subject of the thread).


$43 trillion in funny money injections into the world economy had absolutely nothing to do with it? OK. Depending, on how 2019 world GDP comes in, the leverage on that $43 trillion came in at 8.4 :1 against. Debt creation divided by increased GDP. Step to the end of the line, everything is ok. nothing to see here. The Stock Market is Up!

The stock market went up 13%, and earnings went up 0.001% on GAP. This economy is getting crazier by the day. How long can a completely dysfunctional economy continue to operate?

How much longer can you babble nonsense overall in your posts, and expect to be taken seriously?




Probably as long as you think the market is up from fundamentals

Pretty amusing you squawking about fundamentals when you can only look at one type of figure, debt, without any context, and then claim that makes you smarter than actual economists with degrees, careers, who write serious papers, etc. :roll:

Yes, we all believe you because you yammer so stridently and so frequently. It doesn't matter that your track record looks like the typical places you cite, such as "zerosense". But do yammer on. Clueless authors of fast crash doomer sites want to make a living too. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 03:53:35

shortonoil wrote:It is fundamental; the FED dumps $160 billion per month into the market

Well, at least you've backed off your recent claim (Oct. 27th, this thread) that the Fed is "finding it necessary to print at a rate of $44 trillion a year", so that's progress.

OTOH, when nonsense like that spews from you so frequently and so haphazardly, and with so little credible evidence, why in the hell should anyone believe a word you type, much less a claim you make re what is going to happen in the economy?

So your latest game seems to be to find the worst month you can, cherry pick that, and pretend that's the ongoing trend. Or the usual nonsense and distortion field -- just not by as many orders of magnitude as before.

Congrats, I suppose. :roll:

I can see why you do such a poor job citing such claims with credible sources, context, etc. Because if you did, people could quickly and easily see (without having to research things) how full of shit your claims generally are.

Again, I'll point to Fed data, which is a hell of a lot more credible than your ravings:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

For example, for the most recent week posted, roughly $14 billion times 4.5 isn't $160 billion, even for someone as math impaired as you. But it IS, round numbers, close enough to the growth since 10/3 rate of $73 billion to give an idea of the balance sheet growth rate over the past month. 8)

And again, this comes after roughly $700 billion drop in the fed balance sheet from early 2018 to early Sept. 2019. Not that anyone, such as investors who know what they're doing, should want to look at data in context or balance or anything. :idea:

Because, after all, following you or armageddon or fast crash doomer sites or zerohedge, etc. makes folks SO MUCH MONEY over time! :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 16:51:43

The Fed's balance sheet grew by another $19.6 billion last week, bringing the 8-week rise to over $270 billion. The Fed's balance sheet is now growing at twice the pace it was during QE3. Given the sharp rise in interest rates this week, I expect QE4 is about to get a lot bigger!


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Gee, I wonder who predicted that?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 08 Nov 2019, 09:55:29

The Fed's balance sheet grew by another $19.6 billion last week, bringing the 8-week rise to over $270 billion. The Fed's balance sheet is now growing at twice the pace it was during QE3. Given the sharp rise in interest rates this week, I expect QE4 is about to get a lot bigger!


The central banks have run out of ammo. $1 in new debt creation now generates 12¢ in additional GDP. Their bazooka has morphed into a pop gun. By the time oil has fallen below $50 even their stock market, no strings attached, levitation trick will have stopped working. The can is now kicking the banker! Petroleum has no leverage remaining to power up the economy, and they are attempting to bail out the Titanic with a teaspoon. When existing assets can no longer easily be converted into consumables, $341 trillion in world debt will unwind into a gigantic pile of cascading defaults. To anyone watching the energy state of the world's economy, the now synchronized world contraction is not a surprise. The outcome is becoming ever more obvious. The fabric of society is becoming ever more stretched, and nation states are becoming ever more aggressive. The world has built a better mouse trap for itself; it uses the essence of modern civilization as bait. Oil, greed, and hubris.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 08 Nov 2019, 15:49:12

Armageddon wrote:The Fed's balance sheet grew by another $19.6 billion last week, bringing the 8-week rise to over $270 billion. The Fed's balance sheet is now growing at twice the pace it was during QE3. Given the sharp rise in interest rates this week, I expect QE4 is about to get a lot bigger!

Twitter

Gee, I wonder who predicted that?

Gee, I wonder who predicted a rapid stock market crash and economic doom (re the early days of this thread) and was dead wrong on that? I wonder who predicted hyperinflation when inflation remains low? And when you say it's not here yet, you've been wrong on that for nearly a decade. I wonder who predicted exploding gold prices, with gold basically laying around a range near here for the past decade?

Your track record is terrible except in your own mind. Those negative interest rates in the US you've been squawking about don't look so probable now. You also failed to mention how the US treasury yield curve returned to normal in mid October, and has been strengthening, in a sign more growth is expected instead of recession. But you never report positive economic news, as FUD spreading vs. trying to understand the economy is what you're all about. Gee, I'm just SO surprised by that. :shock:

Get back to us when the Fed has expanded the balance sheet by say a $trillion since August. That would be a sign of a QE4 vs. reversing part of the recent drawdown of over $700 billion in the balance sheet.

On economics, I'd believe anyone who isn't a fast crash doomer over you. I believe the Fed over a thousand times the credibility I give you.

But do bray on and make more false claims with bad sources. You're quite good at that. 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 08 Nov 2019, 17:37:10

We are heading to 0% GDP and 0% interest rates simultaneously

Another one of my predictions is coming true. This is too easy and too predictable
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 08 Nov 2019, 19:35:43

This is truly remarkable. US department store retail sales are down -2% YoY, lowest since Sep ‘08. At the same time, discount store retail sales are absolutely booming, up 8.7% YoY! The divergence started to build in Q1 ’17. The current -10.7% spread is the widest since Nov ‘08.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 08 Nov 2019, 20:13:26

and yet there are those who are predicting booming sales this holiday season

US Retail Sales Projected to Top $1 Trillion This Holiday Season
Americans are expected to spend just over $1 trillion this holiday season, despite a shopping season that it six days shorter and anxiety over the U.S. economy. That projection marks a 3.8% year-over-year sales jump and the first-ever holiday season to reach the trillion-dollar level.
E-commerce sales are projected to account for 13.4% of all holiday sales, up by 1.1 percentage points year over year. Online sales are forecast to rise 13.2% year over year compared with a 10.8% year-over-year increase in 2018. Total e-commerce sales are projected to reach $135.35 billion.
The forecast comes from retail analytics firm eMarketer, which also projects an increase in sales at brick-and-mortar stores of 2.5% to a total of $872.25 billion.

https://247wallst.com/economy/2019/11/07/us-retail-sales-projected-to-top-1-trillion-this-holiday-season/

and the S&P at a new record of 3097.77, Dow at record 27774 and yield curve is no longer inverted.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 08:23:35

China Auto Sales Fall 6% In October As Global Auto Recession Shows No Signs Of Slowing
China has been spearheading the global recession in the automotive industry and, as one more month has come to pass, there are still no signs of the bleeding letting up.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... ns-slowing

Now this is what a collapse in progress looks like!

By 2021 world debt will have reached $390 trillion, and the neutral interest rate will have fallen below 2% at 1.93%. With less than 2% in arbitrage the credit markets will be shutting down, and the world's financial system will be shutting down with it. The world will be working on its last 165 Gb of extractable petroleum. Store shelves will be going bare, if a store shelf can be found that has not been piled up behind an abandoned mall. The next decade will belong to the zombies of a failed civilization. Mankind could have gone to the stars, instead it chose oblivion. Its instincts over ruled it intelligence. It is too late for the grasshopper to listen to the ant, and no one wanted to pay the piper.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 08:32:47

U.S. Debt Jumps $1 Trillion in 3 Months – Is the Economy Healthy?

This jump in debt within such a short period of time is unprecedented in the last 25 years (at least). The total amount of debt the U.S. holds is also a record.

When government tax receipts plunge and government expenditures for unemployment and the like soar? The federal debt will jump by $2.5 trillion or more in a 12-month period. That’s what it will do.


https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/u-s ... y-healthy/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 11:13:09

U.S. Debt Jumps $1 Trillion in 3 Months – Is the Economy Healthy?


Even though the M2 money supply has recently been growing like a house afire, up 7.6% in the last month, the velocity of money is crashing. The FED is printing a lot of money that is not getting into the economy. If the money that is going into the stock market is taken into consideration there is none getting into the remainder of the system. The day of the resilient, and profligate consumer to fire up flailing GDP growth has ended. Ma, an Pa Six Pack are broke, and with no funny money coming their way they are going to stay that way. GDP is going to start looking pretty anemic.

Whether the central bankers decide to keep printing, or go play golf probably isn't going to make any difference. Their leverage in the economy, outside the ballyhooed stock market, is now zero. The last thing the 2 bytes, and a hard drive that make up the stock market are concerned with is the economy. They are concerned with the 2 nanosecond lead time of the adjusted momentum index of the VIX jaberwacky. The rest of the world is trying to get their car fixed?
http://www.shadowstats.com/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 11:47:22

US NY Fed GDP Nowcast Q4: 0.7% (prev 0.80%)


Heading to zero and no FED ammo
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 13:01:04

Armageddon wrote:US NY Fed GDP Nowcast Q4: 0.7% (prev 0.80%)


Heading to zero and no FED ammo

Yes of course. The rising treasury rates and the strengthening yield curve mean nothing.

Because you are an economics "expert". (We "know" that because you have claimed it recently, kind of like we "know" ETP theory is valid because shorty has blathered about it for years.) :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 15:30:17

Yes of course. The rising treasury rates and the strengthening yield curve mean nothing


Indirects ran 3, 5, 7 and 10 Yr. bonds right on up. The rest of the world is buying junk US paper hands over fits. With the Chinese CPI coming in at 9.2% it is not difficult to understand why. Most of the rest of the world's economy must be melting down if the US with $22.5 trillion in government debt, and $70 trillion in government, and private debt is the safest place to go. What is driving up US bond rates is simple, naked fear. Once it strikes them that the oil age, and everything that goes with it is ending, it will morph into abject, frantic panic.

Arm's gold horde is going to look pretty appealing; hope he owns a couple good shotguns. Autos, 12 gauge, with double 00 buck.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yonnipun » Sun 10 Nov 2019, 03:13:38

Once it strikes them that the oil age, and everything that goes with it is ending


They are in great denial. All they talk about is efficiency and scale effect. In agriculture we see farms that have thousands of hectars of land. They say it is efficient but a lot of empty driving with a tractor is not efficient. Cheap oil makes people to lose their common sense.
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