Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 18:54:07

The Petro-commie stations are still theoretical in BC. I've seen the one in Canmore. 2 outlets, takes 30 minutes to charge your car apparently. During the summer tourist season or during winter ski season the gas stations in Canmore and Banff have cars lined up waiting to fill up regardless that there are 8 pumps and it only takes 5 minutes or less to fill and pay for your gas. Imagine how many "fast" charge stations you will need during peak travel times. Even if you replaced all 8 pumps with charging stations you would have to have 4 or more service centers for each 1 you currently have if the same number of EV's showed up. The devil is going to be in the detail I'm afraid.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7304
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 19:20:37

Most trips are local city trips.
Holiday road trips could be encouraged to use hire-cars that are ICE and burn synfuel.
Or other EV options exist, like constantly improving battery tech getting longer and longer ranges, like the potential for battery-swap technologies, and / or with any of these navigation apps co-ordinating charging at the least crowded fast-charge stations.
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
User avatar
eclipse
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 425
Joined: Fri 04 Feb 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Sydney

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 19:38:29

rockdoc123 wrote:The Petro-commie stations are still theoretical in BC. I've seen the one in Canmore. 2 outlets, takes 30 minutes to charge your car apparently. During the summer tourist season or during winter ski season the gas stations in Canmore and Banff have cars lined up waiting to fill up regardless that there are 8 pumps and it only takes 5 minutes or less to fill and pay for your gas. Imagine how many "fast" charge stations you will need during peak travel times. Even if you replaced all 8 pumps with charging stations you would have to have 4 or more service centers for each 1 you currently have if the same number of EV's showed up. The devil is going to be in the detail I'm afraid.


I've certainly had the experience of filling up in Banff, Lake Louise and Jasper during tourist season! There are many factors, including the ones you mention, that are impeding the transition to electric vehicles.
yellowcanoe
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 584
Joined: Fri 15 Nov 2013, 13:42:27
Location: Ottawa, Canada

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 20:29:39

I’m definitely not an expert in EV’s like I am with economics, but I thought EV’s had these hurdles to climb:

-rare earths minerals and metals kept them from ever being mass produced on a large scale

-driving distance is too limited for most people without recharging

-batteries only last 30,000 and need replaced and are expensive.

-the power grid wouldn’t hold up with the masses charging them
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5411
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 20:33:51

There's enough rare earth's on this planet to do the job, most driving is city driving and something like 95% of ALL driving can be done on EV's, there are other synfuels for other vehicles and nuclear power has a high enough EROEI to generate all the synfuels we could want, and it's a myth that the grid can't cope.

NREL studies show we can convert about a third of our cars into EV's without requiring a single extra power plant if we turn all our baseload plants up to full and charge at night. This would mainly be light vehicles like family cars and light trucks. “For the United States as a whole, 84% of US cars, pickup trucks and SUVs could be supported by the existing infrastructure”
http://tinyurl.com/y6b6s7nx

This means that we can charge about a third of today's vehicles for "free" on today's electricity grid without building a single new power plant. Another study confirms that "the grid has enough excess capacity to support over 150 million battery-powered cars, or about 75 percent of the cars, pickups, and SUVs on the road in the United States." Technology Review August 2013 http://tinyurl.com/y3qvtv5k

Then for the heavy vehicles Tesla are building a heavy long-haul truck, but we can also build more nuclear power plants to crack seawater into e-diesel and jet fuel.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/synthetic-diesel/
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
User avatar
eclipse
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 425
Joined: Fri 04 Feb 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Sydney

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 20:44:53

It is amusing that a Canadian would grouse about there not being chargers in parts of Canada. Any new technology will certainly be adopted first in the major population areas which will never be any city in Canada compared to New York or Los Angeles. Give them a bit of time and they will get to you as soon as your city gets to the top of the pile of not yet served cities. It is just a matter of how many potential customers are in a given area and Canada though very nice does not have the volume of potential customers to come first. Eh!.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9878
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 20:47:35

There’s 1 billion cars on the road worldwide and only 4 million are EV’s?
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5411
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 20:59:01

It is amusing that a Canadian would grouse about there not being chargers in parts of Canada. Any new technology will certainly be adopted first in the major population areas which will never be any city in Canada compared to New York or Los Angeles. Give them a bit of time and they will get to you as soon as your city gets to the top of the pile of not yet served cities. It is just a matter of how many potential customers are in a given area and Canada though very nice does not have the volume of potential customers to come first. Eh!.


Not grousing about it.....simply pointing out that it is a fallacy to suggest the shift over to EV's from ICE's can be completely done in a few year's time for a number of reasons. And perhaps you missed it but Canada is not part of the US...what happens down there with respect to the building of electric capacity, charging stations has zip to do with those north of the border. Different governments, different companies, different regulators, different sources of power.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7304
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 21:13:18

rockdoc123 wrote:Not grousing about it.....simply pointing out that it is a fallacy to suggest the shift over to EV's from ICE's can be completely done in a few year's time for a number of reasons.
Perhaps you should consider how fast the horse and buggy declined after the introduction of the Model T ford.
And perhaps you missed it but Canada is not part of the US...what happens down there with respect to the building of electric capacity, charging stations has zip to do with those north of the border. Different governments, different companies, different regulators, different sources of power.

Yes of course, Canada has so much hydro power available that Canadian engineers call utility poles "Hydro poles" and they presently export their excess to the US. But switching to charging EVs with that power vs. exporting it will require quite a bit of change but you Canadians can deal with that as it comes but lagging behind the US often has the advantage of not having to duplicate the US's mistakes.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9878
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 22:41:42

vtsnowedin wrote:Perhaps you should consider how fast the horse and buggy declined after the introduction of the Model T ford.


The Model T is an excellent comparison though not in the way you intended. Sales of the Model T rose at a rapid rate immediately after it came onto the market. Today we have numerous, well engineered electric cars to choose from. We have automotive companies that recognize that ICE vehicles are not sustainable in the long run and want ensure they capture a good share of the electric vehicle market. We have numerous governments that provide what are in many cases generous rebates for the purchase of an electric vehicle. And yet, sales of electric vehicles still represent a very small percentage of vehicle sales and the most basic electric vehicles are substantially more expensive than a basic ICE vehicle.

I think the primary problem with electric vehicles is that they are inherently more expensive to manufacture than an ICE vehicle. Hybrid electric vehicles such as the Toyota Prius have been on the market for over 20 years now. If manufacturers have not been able to achieve a significant reduction in manufacturing costs by now I am doubtful that it is achievable. For example, the list price for the base model of the Nissan Leaf in Canada is CDN$42,298. The Nissan Kicks crossover SUV we bought this summer cost us around half that amount.
yellowcanoe
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 584
Joined: Fri 15 Nov 2013, 13:42:27
Location: Ottawa, Canada

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 07 Nov 2019, 23:30:20

Hybrids are totally different beasts to 100% EV.
Model S is totally different to Tesla's cheaper family cars.
Electricity is about half the price per distance compared to oil.
Bit by bit, EV's are advancing.
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
User avatar
eclipse
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 425
Joined: Fri 04 Feb 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Sydney

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 06:00:22

General Motors has officially sold its Lordstown, Ohio, assembly facility—for an undisclosed amount—to a company that will build electric pickups.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... AHe4t4p61s
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9878
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 13:27:22

rockdoc123 wrote:The Petro-commie stations are still theoretical in BC. I've seen the one in Canmore. 2 outlets, takes 30 minutes to charge your car apparently. During the summer tourist season or during winter ski season the gas stations in Canmore and Banff have cars lined up waiting to fill up regardless that there are 8 pumps and it only takes 5 minutes or less to fill and pay for your gas. Imagine how many "fast" charge stations you will need during peak travel times. Even if you replaced all 8 pumps with charging stations you would have to have 4 or more service centers for each 1 you currently have if the same number of EV's showed up. The devil is going to be in the detail I'm afraid.

You're right, if they all want to fill up as ICE's do while waiting, vs. say while they're parked at their motel overnight, or drive on down the road a ways so they have a shorter line. (It's not like such information (re station charger availability/lines) won't be available on smart phone apps by the time BEV's are, say, 40% or more of the light vehicle fleet, and probably LONG before that).

First, things like this are why the transition to EV's is almost surely going to be gradual, despite the super green dreamers wishes for oil use to suddenly and magically go away. But it will likely take 3 or even 5 decades, so that's a LOT of time for change. And we could get about halfway there re using HEV's for the light car/truck fleet, which would solve roughly half the problem, if we really wanted to -- in one vehicle cycle or about, say, 15 years -- while we wait for the entire BEV needed improvements, economics, and infrastructure changes to occur. (Not that we're smart enough to do that -- but we COULD if we wanted to).

Oh, and we may end up with multiple zero-tailpipe emissions solutions to such transport. The planners at Toyota aren't stupid. They still believe in FCV's as a viable solution, so I'm not dismissive of that option. Maybe many of the current gas stations will be hybrid hydrogen pumping and charging stations, for example. (I'm presuming that a way can be found to sequester most of the carbon from producing hydrogen with natural gas, or use solar/wind to produce hydrogen with electrolysis).

Things can change. People can adapt. Physical reality must be conformed to when things change. All these things are true. Aside from that, predicting the future is hard.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7358
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 13:31:11

vtsnowedin wrote:
General Motors has officially sold its Lordstown, Ohio, assembly facility—for an undisclosed amount—to a company that will build electric pickups.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... AHe4t4p61s

Cool. Hopefully their prices will be a hell of a lot lower than the $67,000 I saw a Rivian pickup rep cite as the STARTING price for their pickup trucks (with the smallest batteries) I saw on Youtube yesterday.

And here I thought $50,000ish pickups seemed expensive. :?

Lots of viable consumer choice is what the EV industry really needs to drive down prices over time, IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7358
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 14:17:42

Lots of viable consumer choice is what the EV industry really needs to drive down prices over time, IMO.


Yup. Up here in cow country every wantabe drugstore cowboy has an F100 or some other such nonsense. Most of them never take the plastic tops off the back but they make sure they are jacked up with really big off road tires. I'm all for pickups as work kit but for driving around the city (which most of these dickheads do) it doesn't make much sense. Lord knows when I go into the city and look for a spot in a parkade it is almost impossible given the number of oversized crew cab pickups (again none being used for business). The problem is they are very, very cheap and hence attractive status symbols to young folks. In order for an EV pickup to compete the price point will have to compete with all of these cheap pickups, given that I seriously doubt most of these people will pick up the extra IQ points to understand they do not need a pickup which is impractical for pretty much everything unless you are a contractor. The number of pickups I see spun out in ditches in the winter out where I am is astounding. Basically these folks seem to think a pickup makes them invulnerable whereas in fact they are the worst vehicle to have on snowy roads unless you have a lot of weight in the back (like a huge toolbox contractors would have).
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7304
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 14:29:33

rockdoc123 wrote:
Lots of viable consumer choice is what the EV industry really needs to drive down prices over time, IMO.


Yup. Up here in cow country every wantabe drugstore cowboy has an F100 or some other such nonsense. Most of them never take the plastic tops off the back but they make sure they are jacked up with really big off road tires. I'm all for pickups as work kit but for driving around the city (which most of these dickheads do) it doesn't make much sense.

If I could change just ONE thing, it would be to impose significant fuel taxes on such vehicles (or large SUV's, etc) for people who don't have a business need for them. A simple economic incentive to get people to smarten up re what they drive. Farmers, real world businesses which NEED to cart lots of stuff weekly, etc. could be exempt.

(You need to move a big couch once a year? Rent or borrow a vehicle for that hour or three).

But you'd never get most people to go for that. Citing "freedom" etc. Even when pretty arbitrary levels of taxation and rules and regulations are already a reality thoughout the first world.

Clever as we are, we're also most deserving overall, of the demise we're heading for, in time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7358
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 20:00:18

Armageddon wrote:-rare earths minerals and metals kept them from ever being mass produced on a large scale


Electric motors don't necessarily need them. No Teslas used rare-earths until the Model 3.

Armageddon wrote:-driving distance is too limited for most people without recharging


Speak for yourself. I've never gotten under 50% charge in a day even with some pretty aggressive driving--and that's while relying on nothing but a standard AC "granny charger". If I needed more juice in a pinch, there are charging stations around.

Armageddon wrote:-batteries only last 30,000 and need replaced and are expensive.


WTF? I'm already almost 6,000 miles on my Kona and not noticing any degradation.

Armageddon wrote:-the power grid wouldn’t hold up with the masses charging them


Given the rate of change we're likely to see, the power grid has plenty of time to adapt, just as the power grid itself did not emerge overnight in the first place. Demand preceded supply.

Can you please stay out of this thread if you know nothing about the topic? This drive-by naysaying is so lazy and transparent.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3023
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 20:14:47

rockdoc123 wrote:The problem is they are very, very cheap and hence attractive status symbols to young folks.


You have not priced one lately have you?
The number of pickups I see spun out in ditches in the winter out where I am is astounding. Basically these folks seem to think a pickup makes them invulnerable whereas in fact they are the worst vehicle to have on snowy roads unless you have a lot of weight in the back (like a huge toolbox contractors would have).

Four wheel drive is an advantage when going up hill in increasing snow but once you hit the brakes it becomes apparent that every personal vehicle has four wheel brakes and the 4X4's advantage is gone. Being an old redneck hillbilly I will chose the 4X4 and use years of experience and skill to get home all in one piece.
My biggest gripe is people that have an SUV that they have not put into four wheel drive with all season tires on it and wondering why they skid off the road. I tell them that "all season tires" are for all the seasons that exist south of New jersey and they need real now tires to venture off the interstate highway in Vermont during bad weather. Of course they still need some skill at driving in snow or ice and a bit of judgement and common sense. Not all that common today.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9878
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 21:03:02

Four wheel drive is an advantage when going up hill in increasing snow but once you hit the brakes it becomes apparent that every personal vehicle has four wheel brakes and the 4X4's advantage is gone. Being an old redneck hillbilly I will chose the 4X4 and use years of experience and skill to get home all in one piece.


a lot of the people who are buying pickups here are going for the cheap ones (which are comparable to intermediate size cars price wise here) and they are not 4x4. 2 wheel is even worse as there is basically no traction on ice unless the back has a heavy load in it. I agree, my vehicle is 4x4 (I live no where near the city) and years ago when I was a young pup starting out in the industry I ended up taking the winter defensive driving course our company offered. Full on driving at speed across snowy fields and lakes that had iced over in order to understand the proper way of controlling a slide or how to get out of snowdrifts etc. Has saved me more than once.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7304
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 10 Nov 2019, 13:27:29

asg70 wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
Armageddon wrote:-batteries only last 30,000 and need replaced and are expensive.

...

Can you please stay out of this thread if you know nothing about the topic? This drive-by naysaying is so lazy and transparent.

Uh, consider who you're talking to.

Not at all surprising he'd make bogus claims about BEV's, since all he sees is rapid doom and he's so broadly uninformed (except in his own mind).

For example, the current debate is more realistically centered around debates on whether current Tesla batteries will typically last only 200,000ish miles, or might go more like 500,000 miles. (Googling "tesla battery life miles" gives plenty of good hits on this. And there's another debate around whether the million mile battery claims (re lab data) for the next generation of Tesla battery are likely to be valid. (Since, for example, age might be a big factor no matter how many charge cycles can theoretically be handled).

Clearly, he's an order of magnitude or so off the current reality. But looking things up to learn or verify his thoughts/FUD would be so HARD, even though he's on the internet while posting. 8O

...

Consider where he claimed he's an "expert" in economics upthread on Nov. 7th. As if cherry picking doomer stats equated to a doctorate in economics. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7358
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Next

Return to Energy Technology

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 21 guests