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THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 16 Dec 2018, 18:00:22

As Pennsylvania just released October's production numbers - 543 Bcf (17 and a half Bcfd) - you folks who follow this hydrocarbon world may want to be aware of a few items.

The Appalachian Basin (PA, OH, WV) is now producing at a rate of 10 Trillion cubic feet per year ... and ever increasing.
To put 10 Tcf in perspective, glance at the description of several 'monster' finds these past few years and compare.

The resource base in the AB will be 100 years, give or take.
Recent, high production wells are producing above 5 Bcf first year with a few double that.
As the speed, precision, and lateral length continue to improve, economics will greatly favor this region.

Now, main point of this post is to steer any interested readers towards the emerging world of LNG.

Rapid innovations involving modularization and floaters are upending natgas handling, transportation and - ultimately - useage

LNG projects such as Driftwood, Delfin, and Main Pass Energy Hub have the potential to revolutionize the LNG world as the costs plummet while build times shrink to construct these plants.

The fact that a near Elba Island capacity plant - at 2.1 mtpa - is to be built way up in the woods in northeast Pennsylvania for under $900 million and 18 months timeframe - should send shockwaves throughout the hydrocarbon world. (New Fortress Energy is the operator).

Just as natgas has displaced coal for electricity generation, the day is not far off when oil will be supplanted by natgas for transportation. Emerging MOF technology assures this.

You folks who closely watch 'oil happennings' are apt to be caught off guard by this new paradigm.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 16 Dec 2018, 20:34:51

thanks for that update. If the appropriate infrastructure can all get built one should expect a global market for LNG. Years ago the company I was at did a study that worked out if LNG became traded freely across the globe there would be a single value attached versus the large range we see now. Currently you have prices as low as less than $2/Mcf in parts of North America to as high as $14/Mcf seasonally in parts of Latin America. The value our study came up with was $6/Mcf. On a BOE basis that would be $36/Boe a price that would be OK for consumers and producers.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 16 Dec 2018, 20:58:18

Excellent numbers that show, among other things, the price advantage of heat energy when it is contained in gaseous, rather than liquid, form.
Overcoming the physical hurdles will be the challenge.

I googled the 'mid scale'/'small scale' LNG world today and still find it amazing how innovation constantly arises in human affairs.
The outfits that are cutting edge in the liquefaction realm are being matched by the transportation/storage boys as ever smaller markets are targeted.

To compare the cost and capacity of, say, Yamal ... 27 billion bucks for about 17 mtpa ... or the 3 Curtis Island projects costing about 60 billion and producing about 25 mtpa with the 2 ship MPEH which may produce 24 mtpa for under $10 billion.
That is a HUGE spread.

These types of numbers are prompting speculation that the 4 FSRU units proposed for south east Australia may be supplied by US LNG.

Now, THAT would raise a few eyebrows.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 19 Dec 2018, 14:54:03

Ohio just released their 3rd quarter Utica production numbers.

As they do not, AFAIK, total the output, I only scan down the per well production spreadsheet to see what's up.

Most probably another record as about 170 wells produced over 1 Bcf, 20 over 2 Bcf, and one - from Eclipse - an astonishing 3.6 Bcf in 90 days. (Sounds like it is one of their 20 thousand foot laterals).

For context, a year or so back only 30/40 wells broke the 1 Bcf threshold.
Expansion into Harrison and Jefferson counties continues.

For you folks who have limited knowledge of the hydrocarbon industry - especially those who think scarcity is immanent - this Ohio report, along with last week's Pennsylvania release - should provide hard evidence that the US possesses an almost unfathomable amount of natgas.

Appalachia Rising!!
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Wed 19 Dec 2018, 16:04:58

coffeeguyzz wrote: ........

For you folks who have limited knowledge of the hydrocarbon industry - especially those who think scarcity is immanent - this Ohio report, along with last week's Pennsylvania release - should provide hard evidence that the US possesses an almost unfathomable amount of natgas.

Appalachia Rising!!


I'm sure most here understand that there are enough available hydrocarbon resources to ensure the demise of many many species. Thanks!
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 10:38:12

This week's rig count for Appalachia has it dead even yoy. Over the last year Ohio has -8 rigs, WV has +5, and Penn has +3. The EIA has posted natural gas production declines for 2 straight months in Ohio. Overall Appalachia has still been adding production but I would expect the next 6 months or so to add very little compared to the past few years.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 12:30:57

An interesting article regarding negative natural gas prices in the US as a consequence of large supply and lack of egress. It is amazing that when everyone is worried about shifting to alternatives producers are giving away a very clean energy source at a loss.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/why-are-u-s-natural-gas-prices-in-texas-below-zero/

WHY IS THERE SO MUCH NATURAL GAS SUPPLY?
The Permian is the nation’s largest shale oil field, where production now exceeds more than 4 million barrels per day (bpd). But oil output also produces what is known as associated gas, seen by crude drillers as a waste product to be burned off or “flared” because there are not enough pipelines to remove it.

Construction of new oil and gas pipelines in the Permian has not kept up with output, which has more than doubled over the past three years as the United States has risen to become the world’s largest oil producer.

But while oil can be stored in tanks and transported by truck or train, gas can only be transported by pipe, burned, or if special equipment is available, re-injected into the ground.

Recently, compressor problems on a pipeline in New Mexico exacerbated the problem, as it closed off a key artery for the gas.

HOW MUCH GAS IS BEING FLARED?
It depends on who you ask. Permian drillers flared a record 0.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in the third quarter of 2018 and are expected to flare at least 0.6 bcfd by mid-2019, according to Oslo-based energy data provider Rystad Energy.

One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to fuel about 5 million U.S. homes for a day.

Permian flaring came to 0.15 bcfd and 0.11 bcfd in 2017 and 2016, respectively, according to Texas Railroad Commission data interpreted by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), an environmental group.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby sparky » Mon 23 Sep 2019, 17:01:21

.
Meanwhile in Europe the pipeline wars are full on
Nord stream 2 is being impeded by the Danish environment agency asking for a third assesment on the pipeline route
the Opal pipeline can be used by Gasprom for only 50% capacity ( it's the only supplier )
Turk-stream is nearly finished and the Bulgar government has finally given the OK to the extension toward Serbia

all of this is mere background to the main issue , the renewal of supply transit conditions through Ukraine to the EU
while the EU own gas production is declining

last week tripartite talks ( EU Ukraine Russia ) went nowhere and they will meet again in October
the decade long contract expire in end of December , stopping all other pipelines is creating pressure on Russia
while the Ukrainian position is rather weak in spite of US / Polish support

in the other direction the link to China , called "power of Siberia" is being filled with gas now for final testing
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Tue 24 Sep 2019, 21:33:21

sparky wrote:.
Meanwhile in Europe the pipeline wars are full on
Nord stream 2 is being impeded by the Danish environment agency asking for a third assesment on the pipeline route
the Opal pipeline can be used by Gasprom for only 50% capacity ( it's the only supplier )
Turk-stream is nearly finished and the Bulgar government has finally given the OK to the extension toward Serbia

all of this is mere background to the main issue , the renewal of supply transit conditions through Ukraine to the EU
while the EU own gas production is declining

last week tripartite talks ( EU Ukraine Russia ) went nowhere and they will meet again in October
the decade long contract expire in end of December , stopping all other pipelines is creating pressure on Russia
while the Ukrainian position is rather weak in spite of US / Polish support

in the other direction the link to China , called "power of Siberia" is being filled with gas now for final testing


EU-tard bureaucrats in Bruxelles are some kind of special specimen of f*ck-tardedness. These clowns actually do nothing to promote LNG imports as a substitute for "evil Russian gas" and believe they can force Russia to feed the Kiev regime with not only gas transit fees but outright gas theft as has been the norm for Banderastan since the 1990s. Keep dreaming in technicolor.

BTW, the Opal farce is a perennial spasm of bureaucratic idiocy that never stands up to gas transit reality. Gazprom can load up the rest of the pipeline network in Germany to ship the difference. There are no special access points that Bruxelles amoeba can regulate as if they are running a centrally planned economy.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby sparky » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 04:51:20

.
Danemark has just given the OK to a pipeline , not Nord Stream 2 ....the Norway\Poland one
it will run in the same area and has been stamped in record time

meanwhile the latest EU Ukraine Russia talks on the renewal of gas transit to Europe contract has utterly failed
the contract expire in 1 January 2020 so the timing is very tight
the storage are chock-block full but this is starting to make people nervous
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby sparky » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 21:34:28

.
Well , things are moving ,
Denmark has approved the Nord Stream 2 pipeline route through its territorial waters
it seems like the Ukrainian goose if cooked
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 14:29:54

sparky wrote:.
Well , things are moving ,
Denmark has approved the Nord Stream 2 pipeline route through its territorial waters
it seems like the Ukrainian goose if cooked


Who really knows. Recent NATO MSM coverage makes it look like Banderastan (formerly known as Ukraine) has "won" against Russia. There is some really juicy Die Welt article on this:

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article2 ... eam-2.html

So the MSM wants to have its cake and eat it too. They claim that the shut-down of transit of Russian gas through Ukraine is really bad for Ukraine, but then claim that Ukraine does not really benefit much from the transit fees.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby sparky » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 15:11:27

.
The Transit fees were used as offset for paying for Russian gas
Ukraine use a lot of it and was thus getting it for "free"
if the volume of transit gas decrease substantially Ukraine will have to pay for it ....a novel experience
for thirty years Kiev as been on the Russian teat
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 18:34:26

sparky wrote:.
The Transit fees were used as offset for paying for Russian gas
Ukraine use a lot of it and was thus getting it for "free"
if the volume of transit gas decrease substantially Ukraine will have to pay for it ....a novel experience
for thirty years Kiev as been on the Russian teat


For some reason NATO thinks Russia should keep feeding Ukraine while NATO only gives it some pocket change. If Ukraine is some future NATO member and NATO's bestest new friend, then NATO should pony up the coin. After all, NATO is the rich entity.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 03 Nov 2019, 02:31:05

dissident wrote:So the MSM wants to have its cake and eat it too. They claim that the shut-down of transit of Russian gas through Ukraine is really bad for Ukraine, but then claim that Ukraine does not really benefit much from the transit fees.

This is "sour grapes" type of reaction.
Anyway Ukraine is the place where for last 800 years people always have uphill.
Once Gengis Khan have disbanded Kiev Ruthenia it all have become to be a cursed land where Russians, Poles, Turks and Caucasus tribes like Chechens could loot, boot, rape and burn as they have pleased and whatever they pleased.
Hence entirely defiled population lives there, incapable to organize anything what might even remotedly work.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby sparky » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 20:46:10

.
While the US is twisting European knikers in knots , things are happening at the other end of the world
the "power of Siberia" pipeline will be put on line in December
with a ceremony with Prez Putin and Xijinping in teleconference

Southward the "Turk stream" is being filled and will start pumping , the connection to the European network is going to be through Bulgaria , Hungary and Serbia .it is being worked on now with great dispatch
https://www.businessinsider.com/hungary ... ?r=AU&IR=T

It should be noted that , OH surprise all those supply line will be through Russia friendly countries
obviously someone has been thinking this through for a long while

the tripartite talks between the EU , Ukraine and Russia are painfully slow
Russia has stated that the dropping of the Stockholm arbitration ruling granting some two billions dollar to Ukraine
is quote ...." the main impediment "

Gazprom totally rejected the ruling as absurd likening it to someone being robbed having to pay the robber

pretty soon it will be a question of where and how will Russia send its considerable but not endless resources in gas
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 11:40:40

sparky wrote:.
While the US is twisting European knikers in knots , things are happening at the other end of the world
the "power of Siberia" pipeline will be put on line in December
with a ceremony with Prez Putin and Xijinping in teleconference

Southward the "Turk stream" is being filled and will start pumping , the connection to the European network is going to be through Bulgaria , Hungary and Serbia .it is being worked on now with great dispatch
https://www.businessinsider.com/hungary ... ?r=AU&IR=T

It should be noted that , OH surprise all those supply line will be through Russia friendly countries
obviously someone has been thinking this through for a long while

the tripartite talks between the EU , Ukraine and Russia are painfully slow
Russia has stated that the dropping of the Stockholm arbitration ruling granting some two billions dollar to Ukraine
is quote ...." the main impediment "

Gazprom totally rejected the ruling as absurd likening it to someone being robbed having to pay the robber

pretty soon it will be a question of where and how will Russia send its considerable but not endless resources in gas


I am fairly certain the answer to your last question is EAST. China, both Korea's and Japan will eagerly buy any gas Russia wants to sell at a price cheaper than the LNG they are importing now. Piped gas is much more convenient to receive as you don't have to invest energy bringing it back up to standard temperature for delivery through your own pipeline network. Sometimes there is a pressure differential between the incoming gas and the distribution network but getting past that is trivial in comparison to offloading cryogenic methane and returning it to the gaseous state.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Fri 15 Nov 2019, 15:00:02

sparky wrote:.
While the US is twisting European knikers in knots , things are happening at the other end of the world
the "power of Siberia" pipeline will be put on line in December
with a ceremony with Prez Putin and Xijinping in teleconference

Southward the "Turk stream" is being filled and will start pumping , the connection to the European network is going to be through Bulgaria , Hungary and Serbia .it is being worked on now with great dispatch
https://www.businessinsider.com/hungary ... ?r=AU&IR=T

It should be noted that , OH surprise all those supply line will be through Russia friendly countries
obviously someone has been thinking this through for a long while

the tripartite talks between the EU , Ukraine and Russia are painfully slow
Russia has stated that the dropping of the Stockholm arbitration ruling granting some two billions dollar to Ukraine
is quote ...." the main impediment "

Gazprom totally rejected the ruling as absurd likening it to someone being robbed having to pay the robber

pretty soon it will be a question of where and how will Russia send its considerable but not endless resources in gas


That Stockholm kangaroo arbitration court ruling is something else. It is the first time ever that the poverty of a party has been used as a reason to demand penalty payments. So poor little Banderastan, foaming at the mouth with hate for Russians, somehow has the right to be paid extra money by Russians. Suck on it, morons.

And the ruling was not based on a contract breach or other precedent. It's pure political theater.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 15 Nov 2019, 15:26:55

dissident wrote:That Stockholm kangaroo arbitration court ruling is something else. It is the first time ever that the poverty of a party has been used as a reason to demand penalty payments. So poor little Banderastan, foaming at the mouth with hate for Russians, somehow has the right to be paid extra money by Russians. Suck on it, morons.

And the ruling was not based on a contract breach or other precedent. It's pure political theater.

It will be probably left unpaid.
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