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China India - future implications

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China India - future implications

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 28 Oct 2019, 17:22:13

mousepad wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:Within a decade or so they will be far ahead of US.


Do you think so?
I remember the big Japanese scare. Everybody was afraid the Japanese are taking over the world.

But even if the Chinese are going to be far ahead of the US. So what?
Do you think it's important to be "number 1" to live a happy life? I don't think so. I think there are many more important things in life than having the largest GDP in the world.


China may be ahead in certain areas, not in food production. That kinda counts for something. What is the value of a bushel of wheat or soybean when you are hungry? What’s the value of an iPhone when you are hungry?

Many opinions here are built on history, what has happened. What is much more I teresti g is what WILL happen, and the recent past is not always a good guide for that.

Both India and China will, in coming decades, face food shortages. But the evolution will be different. Because of the one child policy China is facing an aging population, an inversion of the age/population pyramid. They needed to do this to reduce mouths as they have relatively small agricultural production. This will limit their growth ability and will hobble their economy just when they need money to import food.

India has more AG land but also has a much faster growing population. They will outstrip China if the current world growth model holds. However that just means they will have an even bigger population when they hit their food wall.

These are some very big and long term trends. Will we collapse before they hit? Will climate change hasten the critical times? Will resource depletion (oil, water, soil) change these dynamics? I don’t know. Likely won’t live to know. But it’s easy to imagine some very interesting times coming out of these pressures.

Does Greta contemplate these scenarios?
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Re: Greta Thunberg's Voyage Pt. 2

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 01:56:18

Newfie wrote:China may be ahead in certain areas, not in food production. That kinda counts for something. What is the value of a bushel of wheat or soybean when you are hungry? What’s the value of an iPhone when you are hungry?

Many opinions here are built on history, what has happened. What is much more I teresti g is what WILL happen, and the recent past is not always a good guide for that.

Both India and China will, in coming decades, face food shortages. But the evolution will be different. Because of the one child policy China is facing an aging population, an inversion of the age/population pyramid. They needed to do this to reduce mouths as they have relatively small agricultural production. This will limit their growth ability and will hobble their economy just when they need money to import food.

China is making massive acquisitions of land abroad (Africa, South America) to make sure that adequate food supply is secured... and I bet they will wish to enforce these contracts in the future one way or another.

They will also take an advantage of Russia because its native population is facing dieoff right now due to abortions, alcoholism and general low fertility.
They will reconstruct in part at least what Gengis Khan have created.
These tasks can be achieved peacefully. Chinese will gradually replace dying off Russians and Moscow's powers will gradually, step by step, be eroded by Being. Loyalty of those who live in Russia will also gradually shift to Bejing while population replacement proceeds.
Needless to say Russian territories are vast and perhaps very promissing from perspective of CC.

So concerns about food supply there are overgrown.

India has more AG land but also has a much faster growing population. They will outstrip China if the current world growth model holds. However that just means they will have an even bigger population when they hit their food wall.

India, due to its geographic location is destined to CC related catstrophy faster than many of us imagine.

Does Greta contemplate these scenarios?

Unlikely.
Too young and also West centered.
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Re: Greta Thunberg's Voyage Pt. 2

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 02:23:11

asg70 wrote:
mousepad wrote:You would be surprised how fast patriotism and tolerance go out the window once growth is below expectations.


Really? Mao managed to starve lots of his people during the Great Leap Forward without suffering an uprising. What's measly "growth below expectations" gonna accomplish?

To be fair for him one must notice that the largest wars which have ever happened on Earth have taken place in China.
Taiping Rebellion from XIX century can compete with WWII in terms of body counts (~50 millions, there are also higher and lower estimates).
What about War of Three Kingdoms in III century AD and its 40 millions death toll?
And did you hear about An Lushan Rebellion which involved China, Viet Nam and Muslims and resulted in 20-30 millions dead between 755-763 AD?
When Chiense are doing something, they are doing it BIG.

On the other hand they are really 2 tribe nation (Han-90% and Hokkien-8%) and these tribes are related and friendly to each other.
It is a tremendous advantage these days for those who want to keep social cohesion.
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Re: Greta Thunberg's Voyage Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 07:08:48

EU,

Those are good points and worth discussion. It’s a very complex topic which perhaps deserves its own thread. Either someone can start one or if there is interest I will start one.

My point going back to Greta and the CC debate is that it is a relatively narrow debate focusing on a single element in a large group of threats. Even if successful in arousing food towards climate change it’s not enough to have a sufficiently balanced world view for proper management.

Some people are beginning to contemplate these issues, but it is still very reactive.


https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-glo ... eport-2019
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Re: Greta Thunberg's Voyage Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 08:04:36

Here is a tidbit from the WORLD RISK ASSESSMENT linked above.

“A worst-case scenario—one in which the Gulf Coast ports in the US were shut down due to a hurricane at the same time as key roads in Brazil were swamped owing to heavy rains—would cut off up to half of global soybean supply in one fell swoop.”22


And some interesting graphics.

Image Image
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Re: Greta Thunberg's Voyage Pt. 2

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 10:29:42

Newfie wrote:EU,

Those are good points and worth discussion. It’s a very complex topic which perhaps deserves its own thread. Either someone can start one or if there is interest I will start one.

My point going back to Greta and the CC debate is that it is a relatively narrow debate focusing on a single element in a large group of threats. Even if successful in arousing food towards climate change it’s not enough to have a sufficiently balanced world view for proper management.

Some people are beginning to contemplate these issues, but it is still very reactive.
https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-glo ... eport-2019

If you start such a thread, let me know.
I can contribute some interesting insights regarding China and chinese population outside of China.
Because my wife is Chinese I have some relevant knowledge.
I think, Agent R has also Chinese wife so he could also contribute but he is no longer posting here.
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Re: China India - future implications

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 11:11:26

IMHO the main "future implication" of China India aka Chindia is that their emissions of greenhouse gases like CO2, SP6, CH4 etc. rose extremely rapidly over the last couple of decades, and are showing little to no sign of stopping. In fact, Obama made special a special side deal with China before the Paris Accords that allows China unlimited increases in their CO2 emissions. Of course India wanted and got the same deal.

As the forests burn in California and elsewhere in the world, and as sea levels rise, and as our global climate system goes to hell, CO2 emission in the US and EU are dropping while China and India are continuing to increase their CO2 emissions, driving the planet towards climate catastrophic.

top CO2 emitters
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Re: Greta Thunberg's Voyage Pt. 2

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 11:25:10

EnergyUnlimited wrote:I think, Agent R has also Chinese wife so he could also contribute but he is no longer posting here.


I've been much less interested in posting, but I still read quite a bit. No idea why, I used to love to pick a fight any time it looked like one was pickable. I'm much more mellow in my 50's apparently.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Re: China India - future implications

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 11:39:22

I think there is a general principal around the stability of countries in reference to human overshoot.

The greater your population and the more you exceed your carrying capacity the more vulnerable you are

to domestic instabilities.

When you have to then go outside the boundaries of your country to secure energy and food this obligates you to commit resources to empire building; protecting foreign assets, building up your military, playing geo politics, etc.

When you further consider that energy and food sources outside your national boundaries are often sourced in poor countries even more vulnerable to domestic instabilities then you find yourself having the challenge of maintains stability both with both your domestic population and the population in the countries you are dependent on to secure your food and energy.

China and India for all their higher IQ's and greater socialization to authoritative rule is not enough of a counter balance to the instabilities that are programmed to throw both of these nations into turmoil as the overshoot predator gains traction in this century.
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Re: China India - future implications

Unread postby FLAMEOUT » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 16:43:47

Increasing shortages of clean drinking water and adequate food supplies, together with rapidly rising population (India) will have serious consequences for both nations in the not too distant years ahead.

Mass migration will commence - to where ? - Perhaps war - civil and national.

It will not be pleasant.
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Re: China India - future implications

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 17:06:26

So this is what I mean, why all the angst over climate change and none over these other issues? We tend to get to smacked with some pet project and forget about other, possibly greater, threats. It’s also why I’ve changed my tactics arguing with deniers. I’m leaving them alone on the CC issue but confronting them with other issues where the hard left/right dichotomy is not nearly so established.

Things I have a hard time understanding are Chinas large scale investment in USA government bonds and their investment in buying foreign land.

The effect of them investing in bonds is, I think, a significant stabilizing force. I freely admit I don’t understand much of this economics, but then I don’t think Economist understand much of the real world. But let’s suppose we went to war with China, say a ground or limited naval war. What is to keep the USA from welching on those bonds? So China is highly invested in making sure the USA is successful, and visa versa.

So China owns land in the USA. What does that mean? Say they raise soybeans and cattle. Are they allowed to export that product to China without export fees? I don’t think so. And would they be exempt from a general boycott on sending food to China? I doubt it.

In a more extreme scenario what is to keep the USA from simply nationalizing these Chinese held lands? Possession is 9/10ths of the law. The situation might be different in Africa and Russia gets real interesting. But China is far from alone in this plot, to buy foreign land.

I don’t know that India is purchasing land the same as China. They don’t feel the immediate food crush. Yet they may be in a more dire situation in even the medium run.

Now reflect upon the WEF Risk Analysis and you will see that they pretty much talk around these issues or flat ignore them. That does not give me a good feeling that anyone in a position of power is thinking this through very effectively.
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Re: China India - future implications

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 19:04:09

Things I have a hard time understanding are Chinas large scale investment in USA government bonds and their investment in buying foreign land.


China’s Central Bank intervenes to prevent imbalances between the US dollar and yuan in local markets by buying excess US dollars (which they receive a lot of due to the trade imbalance) and reimbursing exporters with yuan. This creates a scarcity of US dollars which keeps the USD exchange rate high and thus China accumulates US dollars as forex reserves. This also keeps RMB weak which China wants in order to make exports more attractive but as a consequence, they accumulate a lot of US as foreign exchange reserves. Given the enormous amount of US dollars China ends up with they look at US Treasuries as the safest investment for their forex reserves (safer and more predictable than Euro debt, real estate or stocks). The one issue that is an important one is the potential for China to weaponize their US debt in any sort of prolonged trade war. But China dumping their US debt unilaterally probably would hurt them worse than it would the US as long as the trade imbalance sits the way it.

If the US were to either welch on their required bond payments or seize lands owned by China unilaterally they would be effectively saying to the world "we are closed for business" (i.e. they become completely untrustworthy). This might be survivable if the US made everything it needed internally but it doesn't as is shown by the large trade imbalances with pretty much every producing country in the world.

India is in a similar relationship with the US albeit not to the extent that China is.
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Re: China India - future implications

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 12:53:28

Ibon wrote:China and India for all their higher IQ's and greater socialization to authoritative rule is not enough of a counter balance to the instabilities that are programmed to throw both of these nations into turmoil as the overshoot predator gains traction in this century.

From what I have learned China is a high IQ country (103-105 average IQ, depending of particular study) but India quite surprisingly is a low IQ one (average IQ 89).

Though due to a huge size of population Indians should be able in right conditions to educate more skilled engineers than for example US.
Of course dysfunctional social setup preventing them from doing so.

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Hi, nice to see you around.
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Re: China India - future implications

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 16:25:22

Cross posting from another forum.

I thought it brought a new perspective.

My wife, who is Chinese loves to eat rats. She is very scared of mice however. You see rats squashed on the streets early in the morning where she used to live. The local restaurants grab them. Another product she was fed as a child was placenta as her mother worked in a hospital. There's no waste in China, not much round here either!!
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Re: China India - future implications

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 16:56:56

Newfie wrote:Cross posting from another forum.

I thought it brought a new perspective.

My wife, who is Chinese loves to eat rats. She is very scared of mice however. You see rats squashed on the streets early in the morning where she used to live. The local restaurants grab them. Another product she was fed as a child was placenta as her mother worked in a hospital. There's no waste in China, not much round here either!!

Asked my wife.
For her eating rats or mice is abhorrent, however squirrel, monkey or dog meat is fine.
I dont find it weird. Even here in Poland dog lard is considered traditional medicine, even if now killing dogs to get it is legally forbidden (animal welfare claptrap - why to protect dogs and for example not pigs?).
Never mind, our gypsies are selling it and if you know friendly gypsy trader or some degenerated drunkard in secluded village, you will not find it difficult to purchase it.
But as one of chinese phrases is telling, "all what have wings except of airplane and all what have legs except of table is edible".
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Re: China India - future implications

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 17:07:35

In the northern Philippines there is a species of rat that is clean as it feeds on rice in the rice fields. It is an important source of protein and used as a food. This is a rat but not the urban garbage eating variety
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Re: China India - future implications

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 18:42:05

China and food.

That leaves China with a stark ultimatum: If it is to have enough affordable food for its population in the second half of this century, it will need to make sure the world grows food for 9 billion people.

Its answer is technology.


https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-feeding-china/

And not one mention of over population
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Re: China India - future implications

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 18:50:00

And India doing better, but also growing rapidly. That is not even mentioned.

On the face of it everything seems fine, but the country has been importing foodgrains on a large scale. Foodgrain imports indicate how insufficient the country is in staple food production. In 2015-16, foodgrains accounted for 79 per cent of the imported agricultural produce; the figure was 78 per cent the following year.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.downto ... wise-62091
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