[dohboi]

I tend to do that to theories :/

Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto is now official.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... p-currents

Bad news for Bermuda. Not much else in its path, though.

[Azothius]

Six Named Storms at Once in Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins Ties Modern Record

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... rn-pacific

[dohboi]

Lorenzo is category 5 hurricane.

The easternmost cat 5 ever recorded in the Atlantic. Fortunately, far from land and not likely to hit any.

[Azothius]

I believe Lorenzo also become the northernmost category 5 ever recorded in the Atlantic.

Now, another (near?) record breaker in the Pacific:

From Tropical Storm to Category 5, Super Typhoon Hagibis' Rapid Intensification One of Most Explosive On Record


https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... st-pacific

*A western Pacific tropical cyclone, Hagibis, underwent explosive intensification.
*Hagibis went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 super typhoon in 24 hours Sunday into Monday.
*This is among the most rapid intensification rates on record anywhere on Earth.
*There have been a number of rapid intensification events in recent years.

I read another headline (from a paper for which I do not have a subscription) that it reached a cat 5 in 18 hours.

At the moment, it's tracking toward Japan:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... p=forecast


It has plenty of warm water between it and Japan to stay healthy.

[Azothius]

Actually, it is predicted to weaken significantly before making landfall:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Categ ... at6-widget

Through this week, Hagibis will carve out a classic recurvature path, arcing toward the northwest and then north toward Japan and perhaps making landfall this weekend on the island of Honshu. Small variations in the timing and angle of the recurvature will determine what parts of Honshu might be affected. It’s a safe bet that Hagibis will be significantly weakening as it approaches Japan, thanks to increasing wind shear, drier air, and cooler SSTs, but the pace of that weakening remains to be seen. In its Monday morning forecast, JTWC predicted that Hagibis would be nearing the central coast of Honshu east of Kyoto on Saturday as a Category 2 storm.

[Azothius]

Typhoon Hagibis set to hit Japan could be as big as one that killed 1,200 in 1958, forecasters warn


https://www.yahoo.com/news/typhoon-hagi ... 19875.html

Hagibis, which means speed in Filipino, is [was?] the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane, and is moving towards Japan.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said it is forecast to hit ashore in the Tokyo area late on Saturday, bringing torrential rains and strong winds.


The agency warned that the southeastern Tokai region of Japan could be deluged by up to 31 inches of rain in a 24-hour period.

At the moment, aiming towards Tokyo

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... ear/596581

[jedrider]

Climate Instability is Here and Everywheres

Typhoon Hagibis Kills More Than 50, Floods Thousands of Homes
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-10-14-japan-death-toll-from-powerful-typhoon-hagibis-increasing?cm_ven=hp-slot-1

[dohboi]

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10 ... -18-0189.1

From the summary:

Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:

i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;

ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;

iii) increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;

iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades;
and

v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region.

In other words, Houston, we still have a problem, and will have worse and worse problems going forward...

...more here:

Global Warming and Hurricanes
An Overview of Current Research Results

Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming

In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic... one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century...

A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric over 1982-2009 is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing...

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/

Of course, there are plenty of uncertainties, and more study, as always, is needed.
But absence of 95% conclusive evidence that it is happening is not the same as evidence it is not happening.
The physics of tropical cyclones suggest warmer seas will result in stronger storms .
Physics also suggests we will see warm core storms migrate poleward as the oceans warm .
Both of these effects are already apparent in what reliable data we have.
Waiting for such effects to hit an arbitrary level of statistical significance before we act means we would be to far along to halt the changes.

[Azothius]

October 27, 2019,

https://www.wunderground.com/

Kyarr is the second strongest cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea,
while Pablo is the northeasternmost hurricane ever known to form in the Atlantic.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Kyarr ... =hp-slot-1

Spinning west of India, Super Cyclonic Storm Kyarr rocketed to high-end Category 4 strength this weekend, becoming the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea behind only Gonu in 2007. As of 12Z Sunday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center pegged Kyarr’s top winds at 155 mph, just 2 mph shy of Category 5 strength. Kyarr's winds had dropped to 150 mph as of 18Z Sunday, so it may not achieve Cat 5 strength.

With Cyclone #Kyarr being on the cusp of becoming a category 5 hurricane, it's producing a ton of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), making this North Indian Ocean hurricane season the most active on record. The ongoing extreme +IOD event probably deserves a lot of blame for this

Against all odds, and expectations, tiny Tropical Storm Pablo became a hurricane on Sunday in the northeast Atlantic after moving through the southeastern Azores.

Pablo reached hurricane strength in a very unusual location in the North Atlantic basin, arguably more so than Hurricane Vince (2005). This makes Pablo the 2nd northernmost latitude to first reach hurricane intensity in modern records (1950-present).

Like an atmospheric Russian doll, Pablo took shape as a compact warm-core tropical cyclone nested within a much larger non-tropical cyclone. It’s a rare but not unprecedented occurrence. Very cold upper air associated with the upper low gave Pablo the boost it needed. SSTs beneath Pablo’s path, though about 1°C (1.8°F) above average, were only about 18°C (64°F), far below the conventional threshold for tropical development of around 26°C (79°F) and even below the more recently discovered value of 22.5°C (72.5°F) for hybrid/subtropical development. In this case, the frigid air aloft meant that the atmosphere was still relatively unstable, which allowed showers and thunderstorms to form and consolidate around Pablo’s tiny eye

the Atlantic tally for 2019 as of October 27 is 16 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 121.9.

The 1981 – 2010 averages for these quantities by October 27 were 10.8 named storms, 5.6 hurricane, 2.5 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 95.5, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, s

so 2019 is above average in all metrics.

[rockdoc123]

the Atlantic tally for 2019 as of October 27 is 16 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 121.9.

The 1981 – 2010 averages for these quantities by October 27 were 10.8 named storms, 5.6 hurricane, 2.5 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 95.5, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, s

so 2019 is above average in all metrics.

Lies, damned lies and statistics. Using averages in this manner is not appropriate to looking at trends (which is important if you want to blame cyclones on global warming). You need to look at the annualized data.

Here is Ryan Maues plot of global cyclone frequency
note that overall hurricane frequency has been declining in the period that Klotzbach refers to and it was actually higher for a prolonged period in the nineties with regards to major hurricanes


And here is his plot for ACE (accumulated cyclone energy).
note that overall ACE has been declining since the nineties, the very low ACE in the seventies and eighties lowers the overall average for the period Klozbach refers to...so a somewhat meaningless statistic in this context.

[Azothius]

Rockdoc, could you supply links to those charts?

[rockdoc123]

It is all available with data sources at Ryan Maue's website policlimate.com

[Newfie]

How about posting a link. If you have one.

I’m not even sure I found the correct web site.

[GHung]

Ryan Maue was a meteorologist for the now defunct denial program at the Cato Institute (formerly the Koch Institute). I'm sure his research and conclusions were utterly without bias, (just as rocdoc's are)
Maue is a contributor at the venerable Watts Up With That? site,, one of rocdocs favorite hangouts it seems.

[rockdoc123]

How about posting a link. If you have one.

https://policlimate.com/tropical/

Ryan Maue was a meteorologist for the now-defunct denial program at the Cato Institute (formerly the Koch Institute).

He simply plots the data that has been collected and publicly available you ninny. Rather than play the game of "oh, someone is saying something I don't like, they must be some sort of denier" how about actually looking at the data source for a change. If you disagree with the values or how they have been plotted then you are welcome to have some input. Or is your brain that small that it hurts when you attempt anything other than dismissing actual science?

[GHung]

How about posting a link. If you have one.

https://policlimate.com/tropical/

Ryan Maue was a meteorologist for the now-defunct denial program at the Cato Institute (formerly the Koch Institute).

He simply plots the data that has been collected and publicly available you moron. Rather than play the game of "oh, someone is saying something I don't like, they must be some sort of denier" how about actually looking at the data source for a change. If you disagree with the values or how they have been plotted then you are welcome to have some input. Or is your brain that small that it hurts when you attempt anything other than dismissing actual science?

Thanks for the up-vote, doc. Unlike you, I'll refrain from expressing my real opinions of you, even if the moderators don't enforce site policies.

[Azothius]

Rocdoc,
Those charts you linked are for global values. The article I quoted was simply referring to the North Atlantic.

There is nothing in those 2 charts that contradicts what Klotzbach said.

And according to the NOAA, the figures Klotzbach uses are correct, if more precise, than what the NOAA site quotes here:

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa ... ane-season

On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

The 2019 ACE chart from the site you linked even supports Klotzbach's assertion that the North Atlantic ACE is considerably above average this year.

And the 30-year historical average from 1981-2010 is the standard which Colorado State University uses to gauge above or below average forecasts, as does the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA.

[rockdoc123]

Those charts you linked are for global values. The article I quoted was simply referring to the North Atlantic.

uhhh no. Northern Hemisphere appears as a separate line. And all of that data is available based on hemispheres etc at the link I posted and that data comes directly from NOAA.

here is nothing in those 2 charts that contradicts what Klotzbach said.

you miss the point I was making. By using the time period average that Klotzbach did he grouped in the low rates in the eighties and then compared it to the higher rates recently. The point is that since the nineties both frequency and ACE have been generally declining overall. You can use statistics to support any story you want if you choose your time periods correctly.

The 2019 ACE chart from the site you linked even supports Klotzbach's assertion that the North Atlantic ACE is considerably above average this year.

what average? Why just 30 years? Why not include back beyond that? Hurricanes in the Atlantic were more frequent overall as well as major hurricanes during the forties and fifties.

And in terms of what I was pointing out the average doesn't matter. When you look at the data it is clear that there has been a general decrease in both frequency and ACE since the nineties. This suggests the situation is not getting worse as some would like to portray it.

[Azothius]

uhhh no. Northern Hemisphere appears as a separate line. And all of that data is available based on hemispheres etc at the link I posted and that data comes directly from NOAA.

Missed that. Thank you.

I have been searching the net for a reason that they use a 30 year average, rather than longer term, and have not found anything. I thought a reasonable assumption might be that monitoring technology made a significant leap in '80 or '81, but have not found anything that suggests that.

Looking once again at the ACE chart you linked, to your point, I can see how the peaks in ACE have declined somewhat since the high in the '90s. But can also see that the ACE peaks continue to be significantly higher than the two decades that preceded the early '90s. Regrettably, the chart only goes back to 1972.

[rockdoc123]

Looking once again at the ACE chart you linked, to your point, I can see how the peaks in ACE have declined somewhat since the high in the '90s. But can also see that the ACE peaks continue to be significantly higher than the two decades that preceded the early '90s. Regrettably, the chart only goes back to 1972.

My understanding is that Maue concentrates on the later data as it tends to be a bit more robust. Data does go back into the mid 19th century but it is less reliable. That being said here is a plot of ACE back into the nineteenth century. The cyclic nature is pretty evident and suggests the low in the seventies is not unusual nor is the high in the nineties. Some of drawn a correlation of ACE with the AMO which seems to have similar cycles. Doesn't mean there is a causal relationship however, they both could be responding to some other event(s).



the data for ACE and number of hurricanes this far back comes from NOAA (there are other sources)

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html

And the plot comes from Frederic Decker's site. He is a meterologist with La Chaine Meteo. It is actually a pretty decent site that is information only which is refreshing. It's in french but I'm sure an online translator will get the gist of it (I haven't tried one so just assuming).

http://la.climatologie.free.fr/sommaire.htm
http://la.climatologie.free.fr/cyclone/hurricane.htm#cycl4