*A western Pacific tropical cyclone, Hagibis, underwent explosive intensification.
*Hagibis went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 super typhoon in 24 hours Sunday into Monday.
*This is among the most rapid intensification rates on record anywhere on Earth.
*There have been a number of rapid intensification events in recent years.
Through this week, Hagibis will carve out a classic recurvature path, arcing toward the northwest and then north toward Japan and perhaps making landfall this weekend on the island of Honshu. Small variations in the timing and angle of the recurvature will determine what parts of Honshu might be affected. It’s a safe bet that Hagibis will be significantly weakening as it approaches Japan, thanks to increasing wind shear, drier air, and cooler SSTs, but the pace of that weakening remains to be seen. In its Monday morning forecast, JTWC predicted that Hagibis would be nearing the central coast of Honshu east of Kyoto on Saturday as a Category 2 storm.
Hagibis, which means speed in Filipino, is [was?] the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane, and is moving towards Japan.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said it is forecast to hit ashore in the Tokyo area late on Saturday, bringing torrential rains and strong winds.
The agency warned that the southeastern Tokai region of Japan could be deluged by up to 31 inches of rain in a 24-hour period.
Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:
i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;
ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;
iii) increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades;
and
v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region.
In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic... one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century...
A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric over 1982-2009 is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing...
Kyarr is the second strongest cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea,
while Pablo is the northeasternmost hurricane ever known to form in the Atlantic.
Spinning west of India, Super Cyclonic Storm Kyarr rocketed to high-end Category 4 strength this weekend, becoming the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea behind only Gonu in 2007. As of 12Z Sunday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center pegged Kyarr’s top winds at 155 mph, just 2 mph shy of Category 5 strength. Kyarr's winds had dropped to 150 mph as of 18Z Sunday, so it may not achieve Cat 5 strength.
With Cyclone #Kyarr being on the cusp of becoming a category 5 hurricane, it's producing a ton of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), making this North Indian Ocean hurricane season the most active on record. The ongoing extreme +IOD event probably deserves a lot of blame for this
Against all odds, and expectations, tiny Tropical Storm Pablo became a hurricane on Sunday in the northeast Atlantic after moving through the southeastern Azores.
Pablo reached hurricane strength in a very unusual location in the North Atlantic basin, arguably more so than Hurricane Vince (2005). This makes Pablo the 2nd northernmost latitude to first reach hurricane intensity in modern records (1950-present).
Like an atmospheric Russian doll, Pablo took shape as a compact warm-core tropical cyclone nested within a much larger non-tropical cyclone. It’s a rare but not unprecedented occurrence. Very cold upper air associated with the upper low gave Pablo the boost it needed. SSTs beneath Pablo’s path, though about 1°C (1.8°F) above average, were only about 18°C (64°F), far below the conventional threshold for tropical development of around 26°C (79°F) and even below the more recently discovered value of 22.5°C (72.5°F) for hybrid/subtropical development. In this case, the frigid air aloft meant that the atmosphere was still relatively unstable, which allowed showers and thunderstorms to form and consolidate around Pablo’s tiny eye
the Atlantic tally for 2019 as of October 27 is 16 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 121.9.
The 1981 – 2010 averages for these quantities by October 27 were 10.8 named storms, 5.6 hurricane, 2.5 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 95.5, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, s
so 2019 is above average in all metrics.
the Atlantic tally for 2019 as of October 27 is 16 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 121.9.
The 1981 – 2010 averages for these quantities by October 27 were 10.8 named storms, 5.6 hurricane, 2.5 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 95.5, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, s
so 2019 is above average in all metrics.
How about posting a link. If you have one.
Ryan Maue was a meteorologist for the now-defunct denial program at the Cato Institute (formerly the Koch Institute).
rockdoc123 wrote:How about posting a link. If you have one.
https://policlimate.com/tropical/Ryan Maue was a meteorologist for the now-defunct denial program at the Cato Institute (formerly the Koch Institute).
He simply plots the data that has been collected and publicly available you moron. Rather than play the game of "oh, someone is saying something I don't like, they must be some sort of denier" how about actually looking at the data source for a change. If you disagree with the values or how they have been plotted then you are welcome to have some input. Or is your brain that small that it hurts when you attempt anything other than dismissing actual science?
On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Those charts you linked are for global values. The article I quoted was simply referring to the North Atlantic.
here is nothing in those 2 charts that contradicts what Klotzbach said.
The 2019 ACE chart from the site you linked even supports Klotzbach's assertion that the North Atlantic ACE is considerably above average this year.
uhhh no. Northern Hemisphere appears as a separate line. And all of that data is available based on hemispheres etc at the link I posted and that data comes directly from NOAA.
Looking once again at the ACE chart you linked, to your point, I can see how the peaks in ACE have declined somewhat since the high in the '90s. But can also see that the ACE peaks continue to be significantly higher than the two decades that preceded the early '90s. Regrettably, the chart only goes back to 1972.
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