[careinke]

+2

Thanks Outcast_Searcher for going through the trouble and showing that ICE still makes financial sense at this time.

I'm not arguing with Outcast_Searchers statements or math. The example I gave was specific to this Zip Code, using local data and conditions. I was under the impression I made that clear. Of course if the data is different in your zip code, you will obviously get different results.

Actually, this spotlights a bigger issue. There are lots of solutions everywhere, but no solution works everywhere. In Permaculture, the phrase "It Depends" sums up this idea in two words. *WARNING* If you take this to heart and add in a nonaggression ethic, you may become an Anarchist!

So, if you take the nationwide average, as you pointed out, it makes no sense. That does not mean it doesn't make sense anywhere in the US. It appears it may make sense here for certain people and that was the jist of my original post.

I can think of LOTS of different places where EV could work very well with the right systems: Deserts (combined with solar), States using Hydro power, places with cheaper electric rates at night, etc. But it wont work everywhere, so let's toss the idea out. This is socialist thinking. Who knows maybe the problem isn't EVs, but expensive electricity.

To me; 195 nations are safer than one world government for the very same reason. I'd rather have 195 nations looking for solutions to their local problems than one world government trying to find a solution that applies everywhere.

Anyway, nice analysis Outcast.

[ralfy]

Not just financial but common sense, as many countries lack electric grids, roads, etc.

[Plantagenet]

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the real reason the GM strike is taking so long to resolve is EVs.

As GM (and other carmakers) shift to making more EVs and fewer ICE vehicles, they don't need as many workers. EVs have fewer parts and they are more easily assembled by robots.

So the UAW is going to the mat with GM, trying to win guarantees that jobs won't be lost.

Hence the long strike.

Cheers!

[Outcast_Searcher]

+2

Thanks Outcast_Searcher for going through the trouble and showing that ICE still makes financial sense at this time.

I'm not arguing with Outcast_Searchers statements or math. The example I gave was specific to this Zip Code, using local data and conditions. I was under the impression I made that clear. Of course if the data is different in your zip code, you will obviously get different results.

Actually, this spotlights a bigger issue. There are lots of solutions everywhere, but no solution works everywhere. In Permaculture, the phrase "It Depends" sums up this idea in two words. *WARNING* If you take this to heart and add in a nonaggression ethic, you may become an Anarchist!

So, if you take the nationwide average, as you pointed out, it makes no sense. That does not mean it doesn't make sense anywhere in the US. It appears it may make sense here for certain people and that was the jist of my original post.

I can think of LOTS of different places where EV could work very well with the right systems: Deserts (combined with solar), States using Hydro power, places with cheaper electric rates at night, etc. But it wont work everywhere, so let's toss the idea out. This is socialist thinking. Who knows maybe the problem isn't EVs, but expensive electricity.

To me; 195 nations are safer than one world government for the very same reason. I'd rather have 195 nations looking for solutions to their local problems than one world government trying to find a solution that applies everywhere.

Anyway, nice analysis Outcast.

Thanks careinke.

To be clear, which I hope already was from my tone and comment re enjoying an adult conversation using facts and figures, I was just making clear that your statement that it looked so beneficial locally didn't hold over a large portion of the nation, looking at typical/average pricing.

Your comment above re no solution working everywhere is a great point. Maybe it will some day if prices for EV's descend enough, but perhaps not. At that point, if TPTB want to enforce CO2 mitigation, they might have to ban ICE's for personal transport -- and people will just have to eat the cost, just like they do for all sorts of things today to live in certain areas (very high housing costs in many big cities, to cite one example). The plans in places like Europe to start banning ICE's by 2030 or 2040 seem to be harbingers of the potential for that.
(OTOH, HEV's might be around in such cities for much longer, depending on things like pollution, how rapidly AGW impacts unfold, etc.)

If my response seemed hostile in any way, then that's MY BAD, as that wasn't my intention. Adults can discuss various angles of different facts, figures, trends, etc. without any acrimony at all.

Looking back, I should have said something about seeing how that could work great in your area, but not (yet) for much of the country.

[Outcast_Searcher]

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the real reason the GM strike is taking so long to resolve is EVs.

As GM (and other carmakers) shift to making more EVs and fewer ICE vehicles, they don't need as many workers. EVs have fewer parts and they are more easily assembled by robots.

So the UAW is going to the mat with GM, trying to win guarantees that jobs won't be lost.

Hence the long strike.

Cheers!

Given the financial holes GM has dug for itself providing such labor guarantees in the past, and having had to "employ" workers in US plants to play cards, etc. since they weren't needed -- that might turn out to be a very interesting fight.

This sort of thing (and now GM has been laying off a lot of non-union workers, and may well have to continue to do so if this drags on), where the union tries to sacrifice the financial interests of the company to score points with the workers, is the problem I have with unions -- at least in places where the union / company relationship is fundamentally hostile.

I've seen documentaries filmed in places like Scandinavia and Germany, where it seems like the union and the company/industry work together and try to help all parties involved. Technology is adopted, workers keep their jobs (retrained to use new technology), companies stay competitive and make money. Oh, and since the employees aren't afraid of losing their jobs to new technology, they embrace new technology, which makes them more productive and helps their employer. Everyone seems to get what they want, overall. What a concept.

And, I think I should point out that such a cooperative system requires a solid educational foundation, and requires companies to be WILLING to support and pay for necessary retraining.

As someone who experienced nearly 3 decades of work at a major US corporation (which reflected trends occurring across much of the US corporate climate), the attitude toward retraining and education (reflecting thinking of employees as long term assets/partners vs. short term expense items) shifting from great to terrible by the company was the single biggest change in corporate behavior, in my mind.

The cause seemed to be a shift strongly toward short term thinking re expense mitigation, instead of a long term shift toward growth and productivity (requiring highly skilled, loyal, hard working employees).

Clearly, unions working with a fundamental us vs. them mindset isn't going to help this trend any.

Whether the US with its culture and mindset can become more like Germany and Scandinavian countries like Sweden and Switzerland in this regard is unclear. I suppose some people might regard this as "socialist" thinking. I would opine I'm looking for what seems to work.

[asg70]

Those thinking China will spoil the EV revolution:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/29/volkswa ... tesla.html

VW ID.3 enters production (will stockpile and then ship in late spring, summer)

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/04/pr ... er-4-2019/

VW will have hurdles sourcing batteries but other than that they are serious about clobbering Tesla. So don't view Tesla as the one and only hope for EV adoption.

[rockdoc123]

VW will have hurdles sourcing batteries but other than that they are serious about clobbering Tesla. So don't view Tesla as the one and only hope for EV adoption

every last one of the big luxury and semi-luxury manufacturers are now building EV or HEV. I think there will be more interest in the Range Rover HEV and the Audi and BMW EV suv's and cross overs (at least where I live) than in Tesla. Personally I think Tesla is fuggly and the SUV/crossover they have is way over priced.

What is getting in the way currently where I'm from is not enough public charging stations, costs to upgrade your garage to plugin an EV, and necessary changes to the way the grid is managed in order to deal with load (which is going to be a huge problem).

People still need to remember the electricity comes from somewhere and given wind and solar are intermittent in certain parts of the country where there isn't access to hydro it is natural gas (as long as there are anti-nuclear types out there). So greenhouse gases aren't going away. As well battery disposal will be an issue that hasn't been addressed at the volume we would be talking about if there is a significant offset of ICE with EVs. I think people also forget the scale we are talking about and the amount of capital that will be necessary to replace all of the ICE's out there. It is going to take a considerable amount of time and investment, not something that can possible happen through the snap of a finger.

[vtsnowedin]

Considering that the ICE fleet turns over "new to worn out and off to the crusher" in about fifteen years I think there will be plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments to grids and charging stations. Even if one out of two drivers chooses an EV over another ICE car when it it is time for them to trade you would only have a fifty percent EV fleet in 2035. I think that would be quite optimistic as a goal and they will have to make considerable improvements in both quality and price to make that many owners make the switch.

[Armageddon]

70% of Americans don’t have an extra $400 for an emergency and you people think they are going be buying EV’s? LOL, people are so indebted now. You people live in a dream world.

[vtsnowedin]

70% of Americans don’t have an extra $400 for an emergency and you people think they are going be buying EV’s? LOL, people are so indebted now. You people live in a dream world.

While they might not have $400 left after they pay the car payment and the other bills seventy percent of Americans drive a car to work and on average put on 13,476 miles per year on each registered car or light truck.
At the IRS rate of 58 cents per mile that comes out to $7816 per year per car. If the average cost of owning and driving an EV is close to 58 cent per mile drivers will switch.
Now of course the government can mess with the math by subsidizing EVs or more likely raising the gas tax (perhaps calling it a carbon tax) so that the ICE costs more then the EV. If people are so close to the bone that $400 is a problem there is no way they will take the higher priced option to get to work.

[Armageddon]

70% of Americans don’t have an extra $400 for an emergency and you people think they are going be buying EV’s? LOL, people are so indebted now. You people live in a dream world.

While they might not have $400 left after they pay the car payment and the other bills seventy percent of Americans drive a car to work and on average put on 13,476 miles per year on each registered car or light truck.
At the IRS rate of 58 cents per mile that comes out to $7816 per year per car. If the average cost of owning and driving an EV is close to 58 cent per mile drivers will switch.
Now of course the government can mess with the math by subsidizing EVs or more likely raising the gas tax (perhaps calling it a carbon tax) so that the ICE costs more then the EV. If people are so close to the bone that $400 is a problem there is no way they will take the higher priced option to get to work.

The problem is, they lowered interest rates and extended loan years so everybody could afford a car. They are now strapped into long term loans. Not buying an EV any time soon

[rockdoc123]

LOL, people are so indebted now. You people live in a dream world.

Household debt is lower as a percentage of disposable income than it has been in a decade. This is much less a problem than you seem to think.

[Armageddon]

LOL, people are so indebted now. You people live in a dream world.

Household debt is lower as a percentage of disposable income than it has been in a decade. This is much less a problem than you seem to think.

Credit card debt reached an all-time high of $834 billion. Mortgage debt reached a new high of $9.4 trillion. Personal loan debt totaled $291 billion and was the fastest-growing type of consumer debt in the past year. Student loan debt reached a record high of $1.37 trillion.

Debt,debt, debt

[EdwinSm]

[envy]When I was in the city last Monday I saw a Range Rover PHEV being recharged at one of the two slots on the shopping street near the hospital. [/envy]

[Outcast_Searcher]

LOL, people are so indebted now. You people live in a dream world.

Household debt is lower as a percentage of disposable income than it has been in a decade. This is much less a problem than you seem to think.

Credit card debt reached an all-time high of $834 billion. Mortgage debt reached a new high of $9.4 trillion. Personal loan debt totaled $291 billion and was the fastest-growing type of consumer debt in the past year. Student loan debt reached a record high of $1.37 trillion.

Debt,debt, debt

So are you just to ignorant to understand the concept of a ratio, like the debt to income ratio, or do you think your endless cherry picking and ignoring any data you can't make look like doom is actually even a LITTLE credible?

[asg70]

What is getting in the way currently where I'm from is not enough public charging stations, costs to upgrade your garage to plugin an EV, and necessary changes to the way the grid is managed in order to deal with load (which is going to be a huge problem).
People still need to remember the electricity comes from somewhere and given wind and solar are intermittent in certain parts of the country where there isn't access to hydro it is natural gas (as long as there are anti-nuclear types out there). So greenhouse gases aren't going away. As well battery disposal will be an issue that hasn't been addressed at the volume we would be talking about if there is a significant offset of ICE with EVs. I think people also forget the scale we are talking about and the amount of capital that will be necessary to replace all of the ICE's out there. It is going to take a considerable amount of time and investment, not something that can possible happen through the snap of a finger.

I'll boil the above down for you.




FUD

----

And Armageddon, why don't you stay in the thread that you've turned into your personal twitter feed and stop polluting this thread?

[rockdoc123]

I'll boil the above down for you.




FUD

If you are inferring I am somehow trying to sew fear, uncertainty and doubt into something that is all proven with no problems then you seriously have your head planted firmly where it won't see the light of day. I've looked at the situation in some detail and run the numbers...the results are not all unicorns and puppies.

The problems I point to are all there, well-documented and partly the reason why there is not an entire populace clammering to change at this moment. The problems are not insurmountable but when you have people claiming there are no problems and we can switch away from fossil fuels entirely tomorrow all that does is fill the uneducated with false hopes and expectations. If you want people to embrace EV's that is not the way to do it. Practical solutions require first realizing and accepting what the problems are and truly understanding them (risk analysis) and then looking to the appropriate solutions. Sanctimonious cheerleading isn't helping anyone although I'm sure it makes you feel important.

[asg70]

The problems are not insurmountable but when you have people claiming there are no problems

Strawman

There are problems but they are being dealt with in a systematic way and therefore they don't need to be highlighted again and again. For instance, the rollout of fast DC charging infrastructure (in part bankrolled by VW as part of the dieselgate settlement). I could go on, but hey, you claim to be up on this, right?

Pretty much every technological shift passes through these bumps so it's nothing new, really. Think how long it took to rollout high speed internet, for instance. The insinuation that the transition must flip like a switch is unreasonable.

[rockdoc123]

For instance, the rollout of fast DC charging infrastructure (in part bankrolled by VW as part of the dieselgate settlement)

As I pointed out “where I’m from” there is no “rollout of fast DC charging infrastructure” in fact there are very few stations within the city and on the highways….forget about it. Try to drive from Calgary to Vancouver in an EV…good luck with that, make sure you take your cell phone so you can call a tow truck when you reach the Rogers Pass. In fact try to drive anywhere in Canada from one city to another (with the possible exception of the greater Toronto area) without running out of juice and no option to recharge. I am certain that is the case for many parts of Montana, the Dakotas, Wyoming, Colorado etc. Saying something is "rolling out" doesn't address timing or cost or where it is being implemented, merely a Oh look it is planned. The other points I made are backed up by numbers and research which I’m more than willing to share. Taking an attitude that “oh, it will happen if you wish it to” is pretty dumb unless you are Jiminy Cricket.

The insinuation that the transition must flip like a switch is unreasonable.

And yet that is what all of the Liberal, NDP and Green Party officials in Canada and the Democratic Party frontrunners in the US claim is precisely possible. Stop all fossil fuels immediately and switch. It is impossible, the numbers show that if the vast majority of government budgets were directed in this manner it couldn’t be done in fifty years let alone in a few months.

The thing about unicorns and puppies is that 1. unicorns almost certainly don't exist and 2. puppies are sure cute until you get them home and they crap all over your rug and chew up your antique furniture. That's presently the case with a lot of EV...much of what is talked about isn't currently possible in the suggested time frames and folks just haven't considered all of the possible consequences (eg. everyone getting home in the evening mid-winter when the lights are coming on, kids are home from school watching TV and playing on their computers and everyone with a brand spanking new EV is plugging them in....brown out city unless the grid is massively converted).

[yellowcanoe]

As I pointed out “where I’m from” there is no “rollout of fast DC charging infrastructure” in fact there are very few stations within the city and on the highways….forget about it. Try to drive from Calgary to Vancouver in an EV…good luck with that, make sure you take your cell phone so you can call a tow truck when you reach the Rogers Pass. In fact try to drive anywhere in Canada from one city to another (with the possible exception of the greater Toronto area) without running out of juice and no option to recharge.

Petro-Canada are building a network of charge stations across the country. https://www.petro-canada.ca/en/personal ... ge-network