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Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

How to save energy through both societal and individual actions.

Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 21:18:23

Lots of paleo evidence in support

Stein, R et al, 2017. Holocene variability in sea ice cover, primary production, and Pacific-Water inflow and climate change in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas (Arctic Ocean). Jour Quat Sci, V32, 3, pp 362-379

In this study, we present new detailed biomarker‐based sea ice records from two sediment cores recovered in the Chukchi Sea and the East Siberian Sea. These new biomarker data may provide new insights on processes controlling recent and past sea ice changes. The biomarker proxy records show (i) minimum sea ice extent during the Early Holocene, (ii) a prominent Mid‐Holocene short‐term high‐amplitude variability in sea ice, primary production and Pacific‐Water inflow, and (iii) significantly increased sea ice extent during the last ca. 4.5k cal a BP. This Late Holocene trend in sea ice change in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas seems to be contemporaneous with similar changes in sea ice extent recorded from other Arctic marginal seas. The main factors controlling the millennial variability in sea ice (and surface‐water productivity) are probably changes in surface water and heat flow from the Pacific into the Arctic Ocean as well as the long‐term decrease in summer insolation. The short‐term centennial variability observed in the high‐resolution Middle Holocene record is probably related to solar forcing. Our new data on Holocene sea ice variability may contribute to synoptic reconstructions of regional to global Holocene climate change based on terrestrial and marine archives


Image

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Kinnard, C., Zdanowicz, C.M., Koerner, R., Fisher, D.A., 2008. A changing Arctic seasonal ice zone – observations from 1870–2003 and possible oceanographic consequences. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L02507.

Macias-Fauria, M., Grinsted, A., Helama, S., Moore, J., Timonen, M., Martma, T., Isaksson, E., Eronen, M., 2009. Unprecedented low twentieth century winter sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas since A.D. 1200. Climate Dynamics.

and the CO2 emissions story

Image

Kinnard, C., Zdanowicz, C.M., Koerner, R., Fisher, D.A., 2008. A changing Arctic seasonal ice zone – observations from 1870–2003 and possible oceanographic consequences. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L02507.

Macias-Fauria, M., Grinsted, A., Helama, S., Moore, J., Timonen, M., Martma, T., Isaksson, E., Eronen, M., 2009. Unprecedented low twentieth century winter sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas since A.D. 1200. Climate Dynamics.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 08:17:52

Roc,

So your data is based on two cores using biometric data strung out over thousands of years. What is the date and temperature resolution in that data? Where is the redundant studies that verify the results over a wide area?

Arctic sea ice mass has not been accurately measured for very long. Good measurements start only after WWII when there was better access. As late as WWI having people over winter in the Arctic was world news.

Recent data is far more accurate and consistent between researchers.

And it shows a high correlation between carbon release and ice mass loss.

But again why do you pick this fight? Is it some kind of holy grail quest for you that you need to deny every mention of warming in Peak Oil? What do you personally get out of starting these fights?

It must be very frustrating for you because as far as I can tell you have convinced no one here. Yet you persist.

And, you have the option of arguing for positive change in other areas. For example the reduction of plastic pollution. Why put so much energy into an effort with no gain? To reinforce your world view?
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 11:43:49

But again why do you pick this fight? Is it some kind of holy grail quest for you that you need to deny every mention of warming in Peak Oil? What do you personally get out of starting these fights?


simply pointing out the closed mind of individuals who haven't a care for looking at the actual science.
but much like all religious zealots said individuals don't like to have their belief system questioned...they certainly don't want to have any actual factual data get in the way of it. :roll: Sorry for letting facts get in the way of theories.

I pointed to a couple of proxy studies.....there are scores of them if you ever bothered to look at any actual research other than a press report. If you actually believe that the Arctic has always had ice and it is just now because of man that it is losing said ice then you need some different sources of information. And if you don't believe in proxy data then you can toss out pretty much every paper written by Michael Mann and every temperature reconstruction ever done or any of the modeling work that was done to attempt to match past climate (and hence validate projections). And then you are left with correlation as your only argument. Good luck with that. :roll:
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 14:29:45

They say when you age you need to exercise your mind and spirit to be able to jump out of deep grooves and patterns that get cemented in your psyche. Exercise, read, play an instrument, question your own integrity. Older folks are often challenged to learn new things or bust out of entrenched positions. One of the reasons I do mention that all of us baby boomers, where ever we are in our belief systems, have to be cognizant and wary about this. At least enough to pose the question.

Many are so fixed in their groove that they cannot even entertain the idea that they may have buried themselves in irrelevancy.

I do hold much hope for the younger generation actually, especially once we see the external environment applying pressure.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 14:37:23

I’ll bet Ive read a good bit more about arctic exploration than you. If you want to catch up quickly try starting with “The Friendly Arctic” by Viljamar Stephenson. Then read about Perry’s various attempts. Or maybe the story of the Jeanette. Bob Bartlett's accounts are really good not to mention the Karluk loss. Then delve into the whole Franklin expedition tragedy but concentrate on the various rescue efforts.

These are all first hand accounts. And they ALL report an Arctic that was much different than today’s.

So who should I believe, a couple of dozen experienced explorers accounts or you?

You seem bent on finding some obscure bit of contradictory evidence. If it doesn’t buck 97% of established science it isn’t good enough for you to you.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 17:17:37

So who should I believe, a couple of dozen experienced explorers accounts or you?


well you could actually read the published science on the subject, couldn't you? You don't have to believe me...look it up for yourself.
Do you think I made up those graphs or somehow concocted the paleo data they are based on?

You seem bent on finding some obscure bit of contradictory evidence. If it doesn’t buck 97% of established science it isn’t good enough for you to you


It's hardly obscure. The references I posted are from Geophysical Research Letters, Climate Dynamics and Journal of Quaternary Science which are all well-read and referenced peer-reviewed journals by scientists working in the various fields that contribute to knowledge about climate science. There are scores more if you want those references as well.

And please show us all the 97% of established science that tells us the Arctic was never in a situation previously where there was less sea ice. It is the other way around I'm afraid. The 97% claim has been debunked by Legate et al in a couple of papers after Cook published this nonsense.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby mlopez » Thu 18 Jun 2020, 23:59:10

Logistics is so incredible. And the balance between speed and cost is fascinating. When you factor in elements like the impact to the environment due to the use of carbon based fuels it makes it an even more difficult balance.

With human nature, we are willing to pay for convenience and speed.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 20 Jun 2020, 15:23:07

LNG Tanker “Christophe de Margerie” Completes Unique Voyage along the Northern Sea Route

PAO NOVATEK announced yesterday that the Arc7 ice-class LNG tanker ‘Christophe de Margerie’ of Sovcomflot successfully transited the Eastbound ice-covered part of the Northern Sea Route (‘NSR’) and reached the Bering Strait in only 12 days. The voyage across the NSR to the Bering Strait was 2,563 nautical miles long.

The voyage took place before the traditional start of the summer navigation season in average ice conditions, with the maximum ice thickness on the route reaching 1.3 meters. Eastbound transportation of LNG along the NSR is not normally performed in May as this represents one of the most difficult months for navigation.

The ‘Christophe de Margerie’ left the port of Sabetta on 18 May 2020, passed the Ob Bay and a part of the Kara Sea without ice-breaker assistance and then met with Atomflot’s nuclear icebreaker ‘Yamal’ (part of State Corporation ROSATOM), which escorted the tanker with ice navigation on the Еastern part of the NSR. The tanker will deliver an LNG cargo produced at Yamal LNG to China.

‘This unique tanker voyage is the result of NOVATEK’s detailed logistics solutions, exceptional ice performance of our Arctic LNG tanker fleet and the coordinated work of the entire team. We are grateful to the crews of the ‘Christophe de Margerie’ LNG tanker and the ‘Yamal’ nuclear icebreaker, who both demonstrated high professionalism in harsh Arctic conditions, representing the best traditions of the Russian school of navigation,’ noted Leonid Mikhelson, NOVATEK’s Chairman of the Management Board. ‘We are actively working to expand the eastbound navigation season for the NSR and looking forward to further development of State support for this trade route by increasing icebreaking capabilities as well as full-scale navigation and hydrographic assistance for shipping. This support allows us to significantly contribute to the annual cargo turnover along the Northern Sea Route by implementing our large-scale LNG projects to produce up to 70 million tons by 2030’.

PAO NOVATEK is the largest independent natural gas producer in Russia, and in 2017, entered the global LNG market by successfully launching the Yamal LNG project. Founded in 1994, the Company is engaged in the exploration, production, processing and marketing of natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons. Upstream activities of the Company’s subsidiaries and joint ventures are concentrated mainly in the prolific Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region, which is the world’s largest natural gas producing area and accounts for approximately 80% of Russia’s natural gas production and approximately 15% of the world’s gas production. NOVATEK is a public joint stock company established under the laws of the Russian Federation. The Company’s shares are listed in Russia on Moscow Exchange (MOEX) and the London Stock Exchange (LSE) under the ticker symbol «NVTK».
Source: OAO Novatek

LINKY

Novatek says LNG tanker completes ice-covered Northern Sea Route to east

MOSCOW, June 1 (Reuters) - Russian gas producer Novatek said on Monday that the Christophe de Margerie tanker carrying liquefied natural gas from its Yamal LNG plant has successfully completed the ice-covered eastbound Northern Sea Route.

The route across the Arctic Ocean is seen as strategic by Russia, which wants to use it to speed up deliveries of cargoes between Europe and Asia, supplanting the usual route via the Suez Canal. The tanker left the port of Sabetta on May 18 and then met with nuclear icebreaker ‘Yamal’, owned by a subsidiary of state nuclear corporation Rosatom, which escorted it along the route.

Novatek, which is Russia’s largest non-state natural gas producer, said the tanker bound for China reached the Bering Strait between Russia and the United States in 12 days, a voyage of 2,563 nautical miles.

“Eastbound transportation of LNG along the NSR is not normally performed in May, as this represents one of the most difficult months for navigation,” Novatek said.

Russian government plans envisage the Northern Sea Route, which trims 4,000 nautical miles off the southern alternative via Suez, being used to export 80 million tonnes of cargoes per year by 2024 to Europe and Asia.

Novatek Chief Executive Leonid Mikhelson said in a statement that state support for the development of the route would aid plans for the company’s large-scale LNG projects to produce up to 70 million tonnes by 2030. (Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin; Editing by Jan Harvey)

Reuters
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 20 Jun 2020, 15:24:50

Russia Plans to Overhaul the Northern Sea Route. Here's a Brief Overview.


June 12, 2020
Anna Sindjajeva, SCB Contributor

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) refers to a multitude of passageways along the Russian Arctic connecting Europe and Asia. It is deemed a potential alternative to routes crossing the Suez or Panama canals, potentially reducing distances up to 45%. Shipping from Rotterdam to Tokyo via the Suez Canal, for instance, now takes about 30 days, while it is shortened to only 18 days via the NSR.

The NSR has been open to international shipping since 1991. However, a significant increase in cargo turnover was only recorded after 2012, when the ice melting accelerated in response to global warming, making the passage more accessible and safer. Thus, international shipping companies began to be interested in their commercial exploitation.

Despite the NSR reducing some distances significantly — meaning in principle faster and cheaper transportation — the volume of shipments remains low. Maersk and COSCO performed several test voyages, but thus far, they have not manifested an interest in regular usage. CMA CGM discarded the NSR altogether because of concerns on the environmental impact on the region.

However, volumes have been increasing significantly in the last years, from 19.7 million tons of cargo in 2018 to 31.5 million tons in 2019, and the trend is expected to continue. From January to April 2020, in fact, more than 10 million tons were transported through the NSR, 4.5% more than in the same period of 2019.

In 2019, 29 transit vessels used the NSR, completing 37 voyages. Most of the transits were performed by general cargo vessels, with COSCO having deployed the largest fleet (seven vessels). Overall, the vessels operated under the flags of Russia, China, Liberia, Netherlands, Hong Kong, Portugal, Panama, and the Bahamas. Cabotage was the main direction for the transits (16 out of 37 voyages).

The NSR remains a risky route, though, as it suffers from severe and unpredictable weather conditions that hinder scheduled operations. Moreover, the relatively short period of summer navigation does not allow for year-round traffic.

Forecasts of future NSR usage accounting for climate change entail two extreme scenarios. If the current climate pattern is part of a longer natural cycle, then the planet is most probably facing the peak of a warming phase, which is followed by a cooling period. In such a case, the summer navigation window could shrink to just 60 days. The opposite and more credited scenario, backed up by more than 90% of the scientific community, identifies a strong anthropogenic component in climate change and predicts global warming by several degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The lengthening of the summer navigation window, however, would be relatively limited, with only a week gained each decade. The current summer period lasts for about 140 days, thus a significant increase in the short term is not envisaged. Moreover, warmer conditions would not automatically ease the difficult navigation conditions on the NSR: quite the opposite, as basically all climate models accompany higher temperatures with severe and more extreme weather systems.

Depending on the ice class of the vessel, navigation period, and weather conditions, icebreaking assistance may be required either in individual sections or along the entire route. This essentially translates into two key constraints: low speed and dependence on the icebreaker fleet.

The maximum speed during summertime — from July to October, with optimal weather, and light ice conditions — can be 17 to 19 knots. In winter, with severe ice conditions, the speed can decrease to 6 knots, and sometimes to zero, creating a downtime.

The harsh climate of the Far North imposes restrictions on the permissible cargo for transportation. Air temperature during winter averages -30 degrees Celsius (-22 degrees Fahrenheit), while in summer it remains around 0 degrees Celsius. These temperatures may not be suitable for electronics, plastics, food, and chemical products. In principle, temperature-controlled containers could be used to keep the cargo at an appropriate temperature, but this would increase the cost of transportation significantly.

Difficulties and limitations arise not only with the transported goods but also with the operation of the fleet, as the unpredictable weather poses an increased risk for the fleet and crew. Rescue operations on the NSR are in fact, complicated by the low air and water temperature and by the floating ice. Moreover, year-round navigation on the NSR would be impossible without an expanded and modernized icebreaker fleet, as well as a functional support infrastructure, which must include an ice monitoring system, repair services, and risk management measures related to the use of nuclear-powered icebreakers.

As of 2019, 17 icebreakers were deployed on the NSR. The construction of 12 more vessels is planned by Russia from 2022 to 2026. The Russian Federation also invested 587 billion rubles ($8.34 billion) in modernizing the infrastructure and developing the route.

High expectations have arisen, in particular, around the Leader nuclear-powered icebreaker project, also known as “Project 10510 icebreaker”, which is currently under development. While construction is planned from 2021 to 2025, the first vessel is expected to be commissioned by 2027, with the completion of two more by 2033. Leader icebreakers are supposed to be deployed in the most challenging sections of the NSR, where they would be able to overcome more than 4 meters thick continuous ice and form a shipping channel up to 50 meters wide. Moreover, Leader icebreakers would be able to provide assistance to container ships with a capacity of up to 14 thousand TEU, against the current 4 thousand TEU of the existing icebreakers.

By 2035, the Russian government and the Northern Sea Route Directorate plan to develop the so-called Northern Sea Transit Corridor, which, in addition to the NSR ports, will include the ports of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Onega, and Kandalaksha in the west, and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky in the east.

“We need to ensure regularity and predictability of transportation. The cost of passing the NSR through state support should be slightly lower than the cost of the southern route, at least in the early years. It is important that transport companies and shippers believe that goods can be transported safely and on time via the NSR. We started working on a project to create a regular container line between Murmansk and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, to which goods from Europe and Asia will be delivered by feeder vessels, consolidated there on domestic container ships, and delivered under state guarantees” declared A. Krutikov, deputy head of the Ministry of Eastern Development.

Despite the NSR’s great potential in terms of cost and transit time reduction thanks to the shorter distances, the usage of the route is still limited because of the short summer season and lack of infrastructure. Despite the ice melting, the potential impact of global warming on the length of the summer season is small, and the assistance of icebreakers will still be needed. Nonetheless, Russia has shown interest in developing the route and is heavily investing in its infrastructure, to ensure year-round navigation, which could attract shippers and transportation companies towards a regular usage of the NSR.

Anna Sindjajeva is a logistics team leader for Allyn International Services.

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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby sparky » Wed 24 Jun 2020, 22:05:43

.
from Reuters
the North East passage open one month early
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russ ... SKBN22V2CL
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 10 Jul 2020, 16:25:12

Anyone qualify for access to the data collected by this group? https://youtu.be/OgaEaMfyXaM

https://www.pame.is/index.php/projects/arctic-marine-shipping/astd
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 12 Jul 2020, 07:49:15

"Russia starts building world's largest and most powerful nuclear icebreaker for Arctic sea voyages"
https://www.rt.com/business/494155-russ ... er-arctic/

Russia is building its first Leader class icebreaker to be named "Russia". This ship will be 210 meters long and will be able to break through 4.3 meters thick ice and stay at sea for eight months without entering port. It will allow Russia to keep the Eastern part of the Northern Sea Route open year round and ship fossil fuels to Asian markets throughout the whole year.

There is very little Arctic sea ice that is thicker than 4.3 meters, and less every year, so this ship should be able to navigate essentially anywhere in the Arctic every day of the year.

Also, the navigation of icebreakers breaks the ice pack continuosly everywhere they go, so their use accelerates the process of Arctic sea ice melting because smaller chunks of ice melt faster.

This April 2020 NSIDC article includes a map showing Arctic sea ice thickness on February 22nd 2020, which proves this new icebreaker would be capable of sailing essentially anywhere in the Arctic Ocean at any time of the year.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/04/
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Jul 2020, 12:25:00

JuanP wrote:
Also, the navigation of icebreakers breaks the ice pack continuosly everywhere they go, so their use accelerates the process of Arctic sea ice melting because smaller chunks of ice melt faster.

While these supertanker sized ice breakers are big they are not all that wide compared to the miles of width of the arctic ocean. There passage will be like cutting a thin pencil line in the map. Also other ships, even ice breakers, will follow the same line to save the energy that would be used to cut through new unbroken ice pack. So a measurable acceleration of ice melting due to there passages is highly unlikely.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 12 Jul 2020, 12:41:58

VT,

Not so sure of that. The ice freezes to the land and gets locked in place, it’s called “fast ice” because it’s fixed to the land. Breaking that land connection may allow the ice to move quite a bit more. Or it may not, I just don’t know.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Jul 2020, 15:24:13

Newfie wrote:VT,

Not so sure of that. The ice freezes to the land and gets locked in place, it’s called “fast ice” because it’s fixed to the land. Breaking that land connection may allow the ice to move quite a bit more. Or it may not, I just don’t know.

You are mistaken. Fast ice extends all the way from it's upper surface to the sea floor. Any ice far enough from shore for the icebreakers to have draft will be cutting seasonal ice and be well away from the fast ice in shallow water and at the face of glaciers.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 13 Jul 2020, 11:54:35

"Russia supplies first shipment of Arctic oil to China"
https://www.rt.com/business/494573-gazp ... ies-china/

Russia is now exporting Arctic oil to both Europe and China all year round. I expect Arctic shipping to continue increasing in volume and importance, including LNG and container shipping, in the coming years as Russia continues to expand and improve its Arctic infrastructure, reinforced ice-class tanker fleet, including LNG powered vessels, and nuclear powered icebreaker fleet, which are already the best in the world by far.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby sparky » Thu 16 Jul 2020, 00:55:32

.
Well it's not "all year around " yet but the shipping season got from a few weeks to five months now
the advantage of having the big ice breakers is that it allow an extra week of shipping
on both the start and the end of the season
https://www.arctictoday.com/russian-arc ... n-3-years/

and from the very good source "the Barents observer " (to be bookmarked as a reference source on anything arctic )
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arcti ... -new-route
basically the article is saying that the old idea of the North East passage was
...from Novaya Ziemla to the Bering sea
has now been replaced by
...from Murmansk to the Bering sea
it actually make more sense since it include way more shipping , both actual and potential

I suppose the next step is to describe it as going
....from Narvik to the Bering sea
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 16 Jul 2020, 10:05:00

sparky wrote:.
Well it's not "all year around " yet but the shipping season got from a few weeks to five months now
the advantage of having the big ice breakers is that it allow an extra week of shipping
on both the start and the end of the season
https://www.arctictoday.com/russian-arc ... n-3-years/

and from the very good source "the Barents observer " (to be bookmarked as a reference source on anything arctic )
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arcti ... -new-route
basically the article is saying that the old idea of the North East passage was
...from Novaya Ziemla to the Bering sea
has now been replaced by
...from Murmansk to the Bering sea
it actually make more sense since it include way more shipping , both actual and potential

I suppose the next step is to describe it as going
....from Narvik to the Bering sea


Why do you claim that the route is only open for five months, sparky? The articles you linked to do not support that claim. The article I linked to support the claim that the NSR is open year round to both Europe and Asia. If you have any articles proving otherwise please provide us with the relevant links. I find this subject very interesting and I am always looking to learn more. I expect the NSR to extend at least the whole length of the Eurasian Arctic coast, and Russians to be able to ship cargo to both Europe and Asia year round through the West and East. I do think that Russia knows more about the NSR than anyone else does.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby sparky » Thu 16 Jul 2020, 11:19:49

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10 ... 014.965769
it mention the diference between the NEP and the NSR
and raise the issue of Russia making the passage pay for the use of Ice breakers
Canada North West passage ( NWP) doesn't but then again , nobody really use it

the case for using the North East passage is less the possibility than the practicability
this matter to shipping companies who are quite cagey about their ships and contracts
most container ships are not ice proof , the insurances would not cover any damage

some more sources
https://content.sciendo.com/view/journa ... e-p103.xml
that's a Polish source and as such hostile to anything Russian but useful to put a lower estimate

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _final.pdf

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/1 ... 1980-6.pdf
this last estimate for non ice-ready ships to have a 50 days sailing window around the September minimum
this is a variable number weather being what it is but an estimate of one hundred days sailing with ice-breakers
is as of now a good estimate
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 16 Jul 2020, 11:49:28

sparky wrote:this last estimate for non ice-ready ships to have a 50 days sailing window around the September minimum this is a variable number weather being what it is but an estimate of one hundred days sailing with ice-breakers is as of now a good estimate


Thanks Sparky for moderating the exaggerations from JuanP. I didn't think a year round NWP was a reality either.
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