I would say a good portion of the shale industry will be in serious trouble within the next 1-2 years.
SRSroccoReport wrote:Buy gold and silver or you are all doomed
When the next major ENRON event occurs in the Shale Patch
tita wrote:At least, the original curve is still shown. According to it, the ETP MAP price is around $10 in just 8 months. So, I guess we will get rid of this debate very soon. Or not.
Yeah they were trying to update their system with more automation and security and ran into a snag. There was some data I wanted to see too and it's not out yet.tita wrote:My monthly contribution to this forum can't be made because the eia delayed the PSM that was due to August 30., and it's still not out.
Petroleum Supply MonthlyNotice: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will delay release of the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) data for June 2019 and Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) data for January 2009–December 2018 originally scheduled for August 30, 2019.
Delayed release of the monthly and annual data
Release Date: September 9, 2019
EIA is in a multiyear process to increase automation and security of its legacy operations. A technical challenge occurred causing a delay in the publication of the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). We are working diligently to ensure the resolution is thorough and meets EIA’s quality standards. We will provide an update as soon as available.
So, I thought I would take a look at the current discussions... And I'm quite suprised that the ETP MAP stuff is still alive. I should not... This ETP MAP was curve fitting from the start, not so different from the Technical Analysis used by some traders to predict evolution of stocks.
Yoshua wrote:Is debt growing? Yes...the debt to GDP ratio is today 3:1 and increasing.
The oil price has devalued.
The US economy is rapidly deteriorating and currently experiencing a growth rate cycle downturn in employment, industrials, and inflation. One reason for the slowdown could be due to the oil and gas industry.
Yoshua wrote:The oil price has devalued. At these OECD inventory levels the Brent was USD 120 a decade ago, while the Brent is only USD 60 today.
shortonoil wrote:So, I thought I would take a look at the current discussions... And I'm quite suprised that the ETP MAP stuff is still alive. I should not... This ETP MAP was curve fitting from the start, not so different from the Technical Analysis used by some traders to predict evolution of stocks.
The ETP Maximum Affordable Function is not a simple curve fitting exercise to a group of random data points pulled from a list of Lotto numbers; as you are so implying. The points are calculated from the Etp Model energy equations. The Etp Model is a Second Law statement that uses the historical EIA petroleum production data set. The best fit curve is then derived from the calculated points by a computer using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. That is the process employed by which all valid scientific investigations are performed. Claims of "just curve fitting" only goes to prove that the protestor is completely unaware of how the scientific method is employed. Curve fitting is only an invalid methodology when the data the curve is fitted from is invalid. Otherwise it is the foundation of all mathematically formulated science.
Technical Analysis is an art form employed to predict the movement of several $trillion a day in the equity markets. Dismissing it as just a form of hocus pokus denies its massive impact on the economy.
This graph is another application of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm using EIA, and IMF data sets. It is simple curve fitting showing that we are up shit creek; short one paddle. Like the Etp Model it demonstrates very explicitly that depletion will have its pound of flesh.
The world can no longer pump enough oil to pay its bills.
Data sources: EIA, IMF, World Bank
dissident wrote:
Very revealing graph.
The world can no longer pump enough oil to pay its bills.
Very revealing graph. It can be interpreted to mean that pumping up debt is no longer able to drive oil production.
Very revealing graph. It can be interpreted to mean that pumping up debt is no longer able to drive oil production. We are in the era of diminishing returns and unconventional oil is not able to change this. Similar graphs can be produced for other elements of the economy. Debt is not a panacea and physical reality cannot be wished away.
Economy is booming so much that we need more rate cuts, QE and stimulus.
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