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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby tita » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 01:51:31

My monthly contribution to this forum can't be made because the eia delayed the PSM that was due to August 30., and it's still not out. There is an estimation of the production of June in another dataset.

So, I thought I would take a look at the current discussions... And I'm quite suprised that the ETP MAP stuff is still alive. I should not... This ETP MAP was curve fitting from the start, not so different from the Technical Analysis used by some traders to predict evolution of stocks.

And what do you do when your prediction doesn't fit anymore? Well, you just create another curve or trend line that fit better.

At least, the original curve is still shown. According to it, the ETP MAP price is around $10 in just 8 months. So, I guess we will get rid of this debate very soon. Or not.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby marmico » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 05:59:06

I would say a good portion of the shale industry will be in serious trouble within the next 1-2 years.


Did you not pen an article almost 6 years ago entitled "The Coming Bust of the Great Bakken Oil Field"?

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-coming-b ... oil-field/

Bakken oil production increased from 870 kb/d in September 2013 to 1368 kb/d in June 2019, an increase of 498 kb/d or 57%. Your forecasting record is abysmal.

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/his ... lstats.pdf
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby SRSroccoReport » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 10:46:19

marmico... indeed, I underestimated the insanity taking place in the U.S. Shale Oil Industry. So, yes... you get a GOLD STAR for pointing that out. Excellent job.

However, keep a close eye on the events that will come to light in the U.S. Shale Biz. When the next major ENRON event occurs in the Shale Patch, then I will come back in here and GLOAT on how the entire industry failed to spot it as well as many of the supposed TOP NOTCH PEAKOIL.com commenters.

So, please continue to pump the U.S. Shale Industry that will likely do more to harm the U.S. economy than the Sub-Prime Mortgage Fiasco back in 2008.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Cog » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 10:50:34

SRSroccoReport wrote:Buy gold and silver or you are all doomed



I fixed your rant above to reflect reality.

Yeah ok. LOL
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 11:46:26

When the next major ENRON event occurs in the Shale Patch


do you even understand what happened at ENRON? Apparently not if you are thinking it will happen again given all of the accounting tricks they pulled are no longer viable...i.e. you can't hide debt anymore.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 15:30:27

tita wrote:At least, the original curve is still shown. According to it, the ETP MAP price is around $10 in just 8 months. So, I guess we will get rid of this debate very soon. Or not.

Yup. Given how stubborn the ETP adherents are, I keep pointing to the $2ish maximum price predicted in 2021 by extrapolating the curve.

Either way, it's amusing. The further from reality it gets, the more staunchly they defend it. And then if there's a little dip in WTI, they confidently assert they were right.

But re your comment on the similar flim flam seen in technical analysis and trading stocks -- such religions are strong. The data is clearly in that after the extra trading expenses occur (Jack Bogle White Papers, common sense Buffett wisdom, endless data comparing passive fund performance over time, etc.) vs. active , such schemes offer NO advantage in the short term, and a disadvantage via the expenses in the long term -- there are still a huge number of folks touting all manner of technical analysis schemes.

For crissakes -- just look at Bob Prechter and the popular Elliot Wave theory -- he keeps preaching / selling that stuff, even though his long term accuracy is among the worst of all such "investment information" clowns.

For example:

https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/

Note how Prechter was dead last. Given that he'd fit fine in the permadoomer fast crash crowd around here, little wonder.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 06:28:06

tita wrote:My monthly contribution to this forum can't be made because the eia delayed the PSM that was due to August 30., and it's still not out.
Yeah they were trying to update their system with more automation and security and ran into a snag. There was some data I wanted to see too and it's not out yet.

Notice: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will delay release of the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) data for June 2019 and Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) data for January 2009–December 2018 originally scheduled for August 30, 2019.

Delayed release of the monthly and annual data
Release Date: September 9, 2019
EIA is in a multiyear process to increase automation and security of its legacy operations. A technical challenge occurred causing a delay in the publication of the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). We are working diligently to ensure the resolution is thorough and meets EIA’s quality standards. We will provide an update as soon as available.
Petroleum Supply Monthly
Delayed release of the monthly and annual data
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 09:08:55

The Etp Models MAP is predicting what the petroleum productions net energy value is to the economy.

So can the economy pay a higher price than the value of petroleum to the economy? Well...yes by adding more debt.

Is debt growing? Yes...the debt to GDP ratio is today 3:1 and increasing.

At some point the debt bubble will implode though. At what level? I don't know.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 10:49:04

The WTI futures price is getting compressed and will soon have to break out. To the up side or to the down side? Who knows.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEMX8pEW4AA ... name=large
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 12 Sep 2019, 07:39:33

So, I thought I would take a look at the current discussions... And I'm quite suprised that the ETP MAP stuff is still alive. I should not... This ETP MAP was curve fitting from the start, not so different from the Technical Analysis used by some traders to predict evolution of stocks.


The ETP Maximum Affordable Function is not a simple curve fitting exercise to a group of random data points pulled from a list of Lotto numbers; as you are so implying. The points are calculated from the Etp Model energy equations. The Etp Model is a Second Law statement that uses the historical EIA petroleum production data set. The best fit curve is then derived from the calculated points by a computer using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. That is the process employed by which all valid scientific investigations are performed. Claims of "just curve fitting" only goes to prove that the protestor is completely unaware of how the scientific method is employed. Curve fitting is only an invalid methodology when the data the curve is fitted from is invalid. Otherwise it is the foundation of all mathematically formulated science.

Technical Analysis is an art form employed to predict the movement of several $trillion a day in the equity markets. Dismissing it as just a form of hocus pokus denies its massive impact on the economy.

This graph is another application of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm using EIA, and IMF data sets. It is simple curve fitting showing that we are up shit creek; short one paddle. Like the Etp Model it demonstrates very explicitly that depletion will have its pound of flesh.

The world can no longer pump enough oil to pay its bills.
Data sources: EIA, IMF, World Bank
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 12 Sep 2019, 09:44:52

Yoshua wrote:Is debt growing? Yes...the debt to GDP ratio is today 3:1 and increasing.


Debt has been a problem long before shale became a thing. You're creating a false correlation not unlike the "peak oil caused the credit crisis" meme in 2008. Indeed a big point being struck here lately is that the current debt problem is mostly a downstream effect of kicking the can back in 2008.

Also, almost all pseudo-science is based on a kernel of truth. The usefulness of a model is wrapped up in its specific conclusions. The conclusion of ETP was that oil prices would drop to $0 and that this would precipitate TEOTWAWKI. Its trendlines decoupled quite some time ago and therefore ETP is in excuses-mode ala Harold Camping.

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HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 12 Sep 2019, 10:46:26

The oil price has devalued. At these OECD inventory levels the Brent was USD 120 a decade ago, while the Brent is only USD 60 today.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EERLF9HXsAA ... me=900x900
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 12 Sep 2019, 11:53:59

The oil price has devalued.


The Etp Model tells us that the value of a barrel of oil to the economy has declined by about $120 since 2008. The market is saying $60. Either the market is behind, or the Etp Model is ahead of itself. In lieu of the $196 trillion in debt that has been dumped into the world economy since 2008 it is most likely a subdued market. If that is the situation, the adjustment is going to be nasty. It looks like the last couple of years has been a game of catch up ball. The Russians are looking at the possibility of $25 oil next year.

Nice graph, thanks.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Cog » Thu 12 Sep 2019, 11:57:38

I've seen some world class horse beaters in my time on the internet, but you ETP fan boys take the prize on beating on that dead horse called the ETP model. No matter how dead this theory is, the ETP clan is committed to it with all their heart and soul. No amount of reality can dissuade them from their passion and obsession. Led in all of this by a welcher of bets and an pathological liar called shorty.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 12 Sep 2019, 14:10:03

Shale Boom Cools As Employment In Oil And Gas Jobs Tumbles
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/s ... bs-tumbles

The US economy is rapidly deteriorating and currently experiencing a growth rate cycle downturn in employment, industrials, and inflation. One reason for the slowdown could be due to the oil and gas industry.


Shale has been a momentum stock play since day one. When momentum stocks start falling they collapse fast; especially if there was zero reason for them to grow to begin with? Shale is a net zero energy provider. It was born a zombie and will die as one. When the debt bomb goes off it will take out what little liquidity still remains in the system, and the zombies will be keeling over in mass everywhere. Judging by the rate that interest rates are falling, that will be sooner than most expect. "The 30Y paper sold at a yield of 2.270%". The central banks know that all they are doing is propping up the living dead until the bomb goes off.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 12 Sep 2019, 18:48:19

Yoshua wrote:The oil price has devalued. At these OECD inventory levels the Brent was USD 120 a decade ago, while the Brent is only USD 60 today.


A decade ago it was higher...because we didn't have fracking.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby dissident » Thu 12 Sep 2019, 21:22:52

shortonoil wrote:
So, I thought I would take a look at the current discussions... And I'm quite suprised that the ETP MAP stuff is still alive. I should not... This ETP MAP was curve fitting from the start, not so different from the Technical Analysis used by some traders to predict evolution of stocks.


The ETP Maximum Affordable Function is not a simple curve fitting exercise to a group of random data points pulled from a list of Lotto numbers; as you are so implying. The points are calculated from the Etp Model energy equations. The Etp Model is a Second Law statement that uses the historical EIA petroleum production data set. The best fit curve is then derived from the calculated points by a computer using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. That is the process employed by which all valid scientific investigations are performed. Claims of "just curve fitting" only goes to prove that the protestor is completely unaware of how the scientific method is employed. Curve fitting is only an invalid methodology when the data the curve is fitted from is invalid. Otherwise it is the foundation of all mathematically formulated science.

Technical Analysis is an art form employed to predict the movement of several $trillion a day in the equity markets. Dismissing it as just a form of hocus pokus denies its massive impact on the economy.

This graph is another application of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm using EIA, and IMF data sets. It is simple curve fitting showing that we are up shit creek; short one paddle. Like the Etp Model it demonstrates very explicitly that depletion will have its pound of flesh.

The world can no longer pump enough oil to pay its bills.
Data sources: EIA, IMF, World Bank
Image


Very revealing graph. It can be interpreted to mean that pumping up debt is no longer able to drive oil production. We are in the era of diminishing returns and unconventional oil is not able to change this. Similar graphs can be produced for other elements of the economy. Debt is not a panacea and physical reality cannot be wished away.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby radon1 » Fri 13 Sep 2019, 06:40:34

dissident wrote:
Very revealing graph.


Cherry-picking red-herring. You can pick production of about anything against the world debt and the graph will look about the same - logarithmic, or worse. This is because debt rises broadly exponentially for the reasons many times discussed; while "productions" are weaker functions for the reasons many times discussed.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby marmico » Fri 13 Sep 2019, 07:43:31

The world can no longer pump enough oil to pay its bills.


BS.

For instance, US energy spending relative to GDP is historically low. My guesstimate is that the 5 year period ending in 2019 will be the lowest quinquennial ever for that metric.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec1_17.pdf

The US household debt servicing ratio is the lowest in 40 years.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

_________
Very revealing graph. It can be interpreted to mean that pumping up debt is no longer able to drive oil production.


It doesn't say that. It says that debt ( money unit) is rising and oil production (an energy unit) is rising. Do you think that cereal production is rising and oil production is rising? It's a meaningless correlation.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 13 Sep 2019, 07:49:12

Very revealing graph. It can be interpreted to mean that pumping up debt is no longer able to drive oil production. We are in the era of diminishing returns and unconventional oil is not able to change this. Similar graphs can be produced for other elements of the economy. Debt is not a panacea and physical reality cannot be wished away.


Setting up the graph with World Petroleum Production as the independent variable produces a skewed logistic curve as the best fit. To plot it I would have to had written the software to do it. I set it up with World Debt as the independent variable for expediency, but your observation is correct. We have reached the petroleum powered system's point of diminishing returns. Unfortunately the masses have been so inundated with virtual illusion (often for the support of a preferred narrative) that many can no longer distinguish between it, and physical reality.[/quote]

Economy is booming so much that we need more rate cuts, QE and stimulus.


An economy that is spending 50% more than it is producing is not booming. It is eating its seed corn. World debt is growing at a rate of one half of world GDP. It is doing something that became quite common after the invention of the double ledger entry book keeping system. It is going bankrupt!

Now back to Tweedy Dumb, and the Fat Elven Sisters stories. They are definitely more interesting than any Booming Economy fairy tale. To call this a booming economy would also be known as an Enron conference call type of story. Also known as the crooks cooked the books. Anyone under the age of 101 (since at that age statistically you have less than a year to live) should take this quite seriously! This implosion isn't going to wait for any damn election regardless of what one pumpkin headed POTUS, or a slightly used Indian squaw want. 401K plans are going to evaporate, and pensions are going to implode. The debt is at a level where one piece of bad news can turn the entire bond market into a concrete block of non liquidity. When interest rates fall far enough the credit markets freeze up tight, and with the neutral interest rate down to at 2.25% we are only a few bps away from there.

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