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Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 29 Aug 2019, 11:40:08

Strongest to hit Florida since Andrew quite possibly, Dorian
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather ... story.html
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 29 Aug 2019, 13:53:31

And it does indeed seem to be headed toward West Palm Beach, home to Mara Lago...! 8O

(But too early to tell, for certain... )
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 13:21:40

There's the storm itself, but then there's the sh!t storm of people scrambling to get prepared or get out:

Florida Gas Stations Are Running Out of Fuel as Hurricane Dorian Approaches


https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 162882001/
Florida fuel stations are rapidly running out of gasoline as residents rush to fill up in preparation for Hurricane Dorian.

Residents who are hunkering down or evacuating are rushing to get fuel in areas like West Palm Beach, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Gainesville, Fort Myers and Naples.

Long lines are being reported in many areas, following a pattern similar to when Hurricane Irma caused outages throughout the state two years ago.

"This whole situation is more dire than I would’ve expected in terms of outages and people on the move and waiting for gas," said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, an app that helps people find and save on fuel. "People are taking it seriously."

The outages are the worst in West Palm Beach, where 50% of stations didn't have fuel as of 9 a.m. Friday, according to GasBuddy.

In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale market, 49.3% of stations were out, while 45.7% were out in Ford Myers-Naples.

In Gainesville, 45.7% were out
, while 31.3% were out in Orlando-Daytona Beach and 20.1% were out in Tampa-St. Petersburg.

The outages reflect a significant spike from 6:30 p.m. Thursday, when the worst market for outages was West Palm Beach at 28.5%.

“We, in the emergency declaration, waived service and truck rates for fuel trucks so we can increase capacity for fuel being brought in. We're also going to be starting today implementing Florida Highway Patrol escorts for fuel trucks so we can increase fueling in critical parts of the state," DeSantis said, according to CNN.

Long lines have also been reported across the state, especially in Brevard County.

Miami-Dade officials urged residents to fill up their gas tanks in case they needed to evacuate. They also urged people to fill gas cans for their generators and gas-powered tools.

------------------------------

If a major storm threatens South Florida, it could take up to 99 hours to get everyone out, studies show.

That’s more than four days for perhaps millions of evacuees from Miami-Dade and Broward counties to go through Palm Beach County and northward. But authorities typically don’t know a storm’s power or direction that far in advance.


https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/2019 ... d-shelters

---------------------------

Florida Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies: Regional Population and Vulnerability Analysis

https://www.floridadisaster.org/dem/ITM ... n-studies/
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 13:42:27

Eric Holthaus tweet:

Latest (00Z) GFS shows Hurricane #Dorian bringing 1-2 *feet* of rainfall for basically every coastal county from Miami to North Carolina.

Combined with storm surge and exceptionally high new moon tides, this would be a coastal flooding catastrophe.


https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hurrican ... c6bb37451e
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 14:27:32

dohboi wrote:Eric Holthaus tweet:

Latest (00Z) GFS shows Hurricane #Dorian bringing 1-2 *feet* of rainfall for basically every coastal county from Miami to North Carolina.

Combined with storm surge and exceptionally high new moon tides, this would be a coastal flooding catastrophe.


https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hurrican ... c6bb37451e

And every reason to believe it will come in as a category 4 storm, considering the warmed late August/ early September waters
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 14:37:19

Yup.

Some people are just leaving their cars at the gas stations that ran out of gas: https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/30/us/flori ... index.html
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 14:44:56

These Hurricanes/Cyclones are just like bowling. Usually you have to wait for the curve to take effect, but sometimes you get a strike with a direct hit. Well, Katrina was just like this, just blew up and very direct hit.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 21:07:54

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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 31 Aug 2019, 05:19:26

The Bahamas, particularly the Abacos, will be hit harder. No land masses to break it up, low lying islands.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 31 Aug 2019, 08:01:46

I can not for some reason sympathize with people that live in a hurricane zone and who do not have preps on hand to button up the house and flee. It is rather like people who live in a cold climate and don't have blankets in case the power goes out and they have to do without a working furnace for a few days in mid winter.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 31 Aug 2019, 16:45:54

The level of certainty is much greater now.. It us going to hit Florida at minimum Cat 4
https://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/08/hu ... l?spref=fb
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby Cog » Sat 31 Aug 2019, 22:15:02

According to the latest tracks it won't hit florida at all.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Sep 2019, 13:57:36

It's just made landfall on a corner of the Bahamas at a cat 5 gusts up to 220mph:

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurric ... index.html

The 'cone of uncertainty' (love that term) still certainly includes Florida.

And as I understand it, it could still have a devastating effect on coastal areas if it stays just off shore and goes north piling wind surge and pounding rain into towns and cities all the way up the Eastern Sea Board into North Carolina, and possibly beyond...
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 01 Sep 2019, 14:08:04

dohboi wrote:It's just made landfall on a corner of the Bahamas at a cat 5 gusts up to 220mph:

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurric ... index.html

The 'cone of uncertainty' (love that term) still certainly includes Florida.

And as I understand it, it could still have a devastating effect on coastal areas if it stays just off shore and goes north piling wind surge and pounding rain into towns and cities all the way up the Eastern Sea Board into North Carolina, and possibly beyond...

Yeah, it's not as if a strong storm can't do any damage, including significant damage, even if it doesn't directly "hit" a landmass it passes.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 01 Sep 2019, 14:15:55

Tanada wrote:I can not for some reason sympathize with people that live in a hurricane zone and who do not have preps on hand to button up the house and flee. It is rather like people who live in a cold climate and don't have blankets in case the power goes out and they have to do without a working furnace for a few days in mid winter.

Agree 100%.

And I share the same philosophy re financial preparedness, especially everyone with reasonable education and/or means.

It just kills me when I see stories about people in their mid 50's and even early 60's who lose a 6 figure job, and then claim to be in SERIOUS financial trouble within a month or two.

Of course, in the modern era, to say such things is politically incorrect, etc. :roll:

I'm starting to think that personal responsibility should be a mandatory part of public schooling, since it is apparently so seldomly taught in the home. It could be a core teaching, with rudimentary skills re finances, basic home repairs, etc. that would go along with it. It could literally and appropriately be called something like "basic life skills".

Not that anything so sensible would ever become widespread. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 01 Sep 2019, 19:37:03

We were down through the Abacos a couple of years ago, then through the Virgins after the big hurricanes. The Virgins are far more robust and resilient than the Abacos which are just small sandy islands. They have a funny rock core with sand over it.

I can’t imagine there will be much left. Marsh Harbor, the biggest town there, sits back from the open ocean and will be somewhat protected from the worst of the waves. The places out on the ocean side cays, well I hope they survive.

I just heard “No loss of life”, which if true is amazing.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Sep 2019, 20:48:52

It doesn't seem to be doing well: "...floodwaters from Dorian engulf Marsh Harbor"

https://cbs12.com/news/nation-world/pra ... sh-harbour
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 02 Sep 2019, 07:15:44

That’s what you would expect.

They will be lucky if they survive this one.

They do have a new municipal building on a bit of higher ground. It’s quite big and can probably House a couple of thousand on a temporary basis.

Marsh Harbor is about 6,000 people I believe. 1 super market in town. Most of the population is pretty darn poor. Not a lot of resources here and it is low lying.

The outer cays, which will take the brunt of the hurricane, is where the money is. But even there it’s only single family homes. So I imagine a lot of folks will have evacuated TO Marsh Harbor. Places like Elbow Cay and Green Turtle will likely have been pretty well scrubbed clean, if the wind reports hold true.

Can’t see a lot of folks getting out of the Abacos by the limited plane service they have and I don’t recall any significant ferry service either.

If you were there on a boat, a sail boat, you should have run SW 3 days ago.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 02 Sep 2019, 09:11:08

--------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by
NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 78.2 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the
Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches).
It is being labeled the 2nd strongest hurricane on record!
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1224.shtml
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 03 Sep 2019, 12:05:33

The scale of flooding seems impressive
Image

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49561450
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