Moreover given the bench EUR estimates most of that imaginary oil will require $150 to remotely be economic.
And yet Rystad has pointed out that the breakeven ranges from around $30 to $45/bbl and the E&Y study is showing F&D costs below $20. But of course lets ignore the actual data as it doesn’t fit your theory. And those numbers are backed up by countless corporate presentations from the unconvenitonal players, all of which are subject to SEC censure.
And as to JG Tulsa comments on the USGS assessment, he is correct that the USGS methodology often misses the details. But remember the USGS assessment is not a deterministic one where the details could completely invalidate the estimate, it is probabilistic which means the wide range of outcomes including erroneous EUR, IP, etc should just be part of the spread. Given the huge uncertainties and wide range of actual rock properties across the various shale basins a probabilistic approach is the most realistic approach.
And you missed what Tulsa said, basically refuting Shellman’s unsupported opinions:
One final note, on the cost and time to do all this, if you just drilled all the A wells in my more realistic AU, it would be close to 30,000 wells, about ten years straight at current drill rate and a cost of about a quarter trillion or more. Then you can move on to the B C D etc. wells. My grandchildren will likely be able to come out and drill wells on top of or underneath wells I drilled.
Which is basically the way things are moving forward.