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The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 15 Aug 2019, 17:40:46

Considering what this site is about may I remind everyone that an extended global recession will result in demand destruction and scale back consumption and CO2 emissions a zillion times more effectively than your most enlightened international climate accord.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Sys1 » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 11:54:07

Ibon : On the other hand, a recession prevents countries from shifting from oil intensive energy to renewable. After every recession, oil/gas prices are collapsing and weak economies look after cheap energy to rebuild their sick wallet. We are on the ondulating plateau since 2008, economy stands still with fake growth made of bitcoin/mercato/real estate/tech while standard of living are slowly going south. The ondulating plateau is a curse because we -even on peakoil- look around us and think at first sight that we are still in a business as usual position while the reality is that central banks are lending money quite close from 0% rates for 10 years in order to prevent the house of cards to collapse.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Thu 22 Aug 2019, 09:06:04

The July 2019 Conference Board Leading Economic Index ticked up to 112.2, this business cycle all time high.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The time....has not arrived.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 20:32:55

Sys1 wrote:Ibon : On the other hand, a recession prevents countries from shifting from oil intensive energy to renewable. After every recession, oil/gas prices are collapsing and weak economies look after cheap energy to rebuild their sick wallet. We are on the ondulating plateau since 2008, economy stands still with fake growth made of bitcoin/mercato/real estate/tech while standard of living are slowly going south. The ondulating plateau is a curse because we -even on peakoil- look around us and think at first sight that we are still in a business as usual position while the reality is that central banks are lending money quite close from 0% rates for 10 years in order to prevent the house of cards to collapse.

Lumping all tech together and calling it the problem or something negative is INSANE.

Where do efficiencies come from? Tech. Like LED light bulbs, which based on the amount of light produced per unit of power, are 7.5 times as efficient as standard incandescent bulbs. Or fuel injectors, made possible by computers. Or any of a host of technologies allowing for more efficient machines from furnaces to desalinization.

And your argument re pursuing low energy costs is to the point -- better efficiencies will make energy cheaper per unit of work done. Just look at the fleet average MPG standards over time, for example. The biggest thing holding BEV's back is the cost to do the job real world in a competitive way with ICE's, over the life of the car. The job is difficult enough, that I believe transitional tech. like HEV's will play a FAR bigger role before BEV's come anywhere near being dominant.

So let's not confuse real estate bubbles and technology. It's counter-productive.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Thu 19 Sep 2019, 09:14:12

It's time that copious abundance declared force majeure on his December 2018 gut bacteria prognostication that the sun is setting (economic expansions die of old age). :)

The unchanged but record high print of the September 2019 Conference Board Leading Economic Index says that the time....has not arrived.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 20 Sep 2019, 18:04:51

marmico wrote:It's time that copious abundance declared force majeure on his December 2018 gut bacteria prognostication that the sun is setting (economic expansions die of old age). :)

The unchanged but record high print of the September 2019 Conference Board Leading Economic Index says that the time....has not arrived.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The LEI is showing signs of stalling.

And did I give a specific timeline? No.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 20 Sep 2019, 19:18:16

The time hasn’t arrived, but it is drawing near
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Fri 20 Sep 2019, 19:36:21

Using you favorite forecasting metric from last week, the New York Fed Nowcast, the time has been pushed out to 2020 at the earliest which is consistent with the Conference Board LEI.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast



.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 20 Sep 2019, 19:39:35

marmico wrote:Using you favorite forecasting metric from last week, the New York Fed Nowcast, the time has been pushed out to 2020 at the earliest which is consistent with the Conference Board LEI.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast



.




Never undertestime what historically low interest rates can do. I know I have underestimated them in the past. That’s why I think they can push off this recession until after the election. There’s numerous more 1/4 pt cuts coming.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 20 Sep 2019, 22:55:46

Armageddon wrote:The time hasn’t arrived, but it is drawing near


Use the proper term. NIGH.

Image

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Sys1 » Sat 21 Sep 2019, 00:44:54

Well, since opening of this site, we say every days "the end is nigh"... me included.
Of course, it will finally happen, but nigh could be tomorrow or around 2030.
Beside KSA attack, oil stays cheap, we fundamentally can pursue our industrial civilisation experience a little more.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 19:05:55

Manufacturers are mired in their deepest slump since the Great Recession
American manufacturers are sliding deeper into recession. A closely watched gauge of factory activity released on Tuesday registered its weakest reading in more than 10 years, weighed down by slowing global growth, the Trump administration's trade war with China and an ongoing strike by thousands of General Motors workers.

The monthly survey by the Institute for Supply Management, an association of purchasing managers, showed that the sector — which accounts for roughly 12% of U.S. gross domestic product — in September shrank to its lowest level since since June 2009. Manufacturers are also adding fewer jobs.

A decline in international trade and demand for U.S. goods is the biggest factor denting manufacturers, according to ISM. One maker of electrical equipment and parts surveyed by the group also said that "tariffs have caused much confusion in the industry."
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 14:18:26

Sys1 wrote:Well, since opening of this site, we say every days "the end is nigh"... me included.
Of course, it will finally happen, but nigh could be tomorrow or around 2030.
Beside KSA attack, oil stays cheap, we fundamentally can pursue our industrial civilisation experience a little more.

When you say "we", you should say the fast crash doomers, because the long slow crash doomers, the long term pessimists, the moderates, the corny's, etc. certainly don't keep saying "the end is nigh" frequently.

And given the track record of "the end is nigh folks", they shouldn't be saying it either, if they want to be taken seriously.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Economy rules

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 14:03:02

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPj7I6hp-Lw

The Trump administration now control the economic narrative, the [CB] was just setup, optics are very important. China put out a story that tariffs would be removed in phases when each part of the deal is made. Trump administration reminds everyone that Trump has the authority do remove tariffs. The Fed does not like what Texas is doing, they seeing where it is all headed


The [DS] impeachment plan is a big failure. The leaked transcripts are now showing the opposite, but the plan was to keep this going. Evidence is now in favor of the patriots. The WB lawyer past is now starting to catch up with him. Many arrested for child pornography. Trump mentions that he caught the swamp, the message received, the swamp is going down.


https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/x22report/videos

Outcast, control is easy as pie if you control the CB, controlling the others.
DS lost control this year, hence the panic…..Brexit and the rest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ESe_IVn6IY

BCP on impeach coup and treason, special forces are rounding up people right now.
159th move against DS.
Yes we are keeping and counting score.
We are firing, sniping with real ammo, no more blanks this time.

TRUMP’S 159TH MOVE AGAINST THE SWAMP SETS THE STAGE FOR BARR/DURHAM INDICTMENTS OF TOP FBI/DOJ BRASS
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 14:09:45

Re the US treasury yield curve going positive in mid October, moving more strongly positive in November, and US treasury interest rates rising meaningfully, that would seem to put a big dent in the "US recession is certain and soon" argument.

Crickets of course on that from the fast crash doomers, as if the narrative/news (credible or not) doesn't support in-our-face doom, then they don't want to talk about it.

If predicting the economy were easy, it would be fairly easy to outperform the stock market. In reality, it is VERY hard to do that meaningfully, over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Return to a goal in life

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 16:12:54

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2EbW5F113Y

I believe this speech is very important. I also think that this is partly why the establishment is attacking Barr & others in the Trump administration. A return to faith is so important and understanding how far the attacks on faith have gone is fundamental to healing our society & culture.. and our individual selves, in my opinion. If you'd like to contribute to my channel, please go to my website amazingpolly.net and on the Contact page you will see different ways to reach me / send contributions.
God bless you


Polly on AG Barr speech

Not to reach out for the spirit is to seek death which is nothing.
Enlightened by abrupt CC, we'd better hurry up being so near to closing time. :roll:
Freedom is personal power and that can only be saved by self discipline, an impeccable life, using your energy strategically.

The [DS] fake impeachment is now going to be exposed, the whistleblower is going to exposed and the people will see that it was setup, this is all part of the plan. 8chan is now 8kun and it is back, Q is posting again, get ready because after 93 days of darkness it is time to return.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyfEIyocm08
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Re: Return to a goal in life

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 16:29:55

Whitefang wrote:Not to reach out for the spirit is to seek death which is nothing.
Enlightened by abrupt CC, we'd better hurry up being so near to closing time. :roll:
Freedom is personal power and that can only be saved by self discipline, an impeccable life, using your energy strategically.

This thread is about signs a recession is imminent, re the OP, and the bulk of the discussion.

Nothing wrong with this post -- but it belongs somewhere else, unless I'm missing something.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Drifting.....

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 16:54:10

Right on Outcast S, I am drifting.....

Last little pitch ok?

93 Days Of Darkness, Rig For Red, Stand By For Battle Surface - Episode 2011b


I love to battle, especially when true parents are holding the cards and aim with live ammo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyfEIyocm08

Economy will blow up big time, forever, when harvest goes down the drain....consumers will die and thus market confidence.
No rocket science is it?
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 10 Nov 2019, 13:58:45

marmico wrote:It's time that copious abundance declared force majeure on his December 2018 gut bacteria prognostication that the sun is setting (economic expansions die of old age). :)

The unchanged but record high print of the September 2019 Conference Board Leading Economic Index says that the time....has not arrived.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

To be fair, at least he doesn't cherry pick and distort things and have posting diarrhea to try and cover up his bad calls and mistakes, ad nauseam, like the cherry picking fast crash champions of this site.

But I'll agree when economic prognosticators say something like "the time has arrived", and then much later when it hasn't THEN claim they gave no specific time line, well, there goes their credibility re such predictions. Saying "we'll have a recession SOME DAY" isn't exactly an actionable prediction.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 10 Nov 2019, 18:16:47

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Re the US treasury yield curve going positive in mid October, moving more strongly positive in November, and US treasury interest rates rising meaningfully, that would seem to put a big dent in the "US recession is certain and soon" argument...

If you look at charts of the yield curve compared to recession starts, you notice that it is sometime after the yield curve goes positive again that the recession begins.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
^
Be sure to expand the slider beneath the graph to go all the way to the left to see the entire history.

Recessions are shaded in gray. Notice that when the recession starts, the yield curve has already gone back positive for at least a few months, and often as much as a year.

Thus, if history repeats itself, we would probably not see a recession start until sometime next year.

If we do not get a recession until maybe sometime early in 2021 at the latest, I'll concede my thesis in this thread did not pan out.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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