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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Run for the hills!

Unread postby diemos » Sun 04 Aug 2019, 14:58:44

Whitefang wrote:10 meters total SLR within a millennia, a meter a year on average.


Human infrastructure generally has a lifetime of 50 years or so. That set's the time scale. The solution to any sea level rise beyond that timescale is; "Move ... inland."
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 04 Aug 2019, 15:46:30

Easy to say. Much harder to enact. Timing is crucial. And planning. We're not very good at either, especially when we don't know exactly how fast the sea will rise, nor how intense storm surges will get and how quickly...
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby diemos » Sun 04 Aug 2019, 17:08:50

Lol. It'll be enacted when reality grabs people by the hair and drags them kicking and screaming into the future.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 08 Aug 2019, 23:50:47

The State of Sea Level Rise (2019)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9pH5d7vKBs

An impressive combination of fragments of talks about SLR.

Final minute: We may have to do something about this climate change!
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Sea Level Rising exponentially

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 10 Aug 2019, 15:24:50

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CexQmFFtoTw

Paul Beckwith

Gepubliceerd op 7 aug. 2019

Five years ago I posted the video: “Can global sea level rise 7 meters by 2070?”; based on the ongoing 7 to 10 year doubling rates of ice melt from Greenland and Antarctica this magnitude of sea level rise is indeed very possible. Now, 5 years later, Greenland lost a record 12.5 billion tons of ice in one day (last Thursday), and a record 217 billion tons in July alone. With a dreaded Arctic Blue-Ocean Event (BOE) likely by 2022 or sooner, there will be complete September sea-ice loss and very large warming spikes, further exposing Greenland to accelerated, crippling ice loss
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Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 17 Aug 2019, 15:34:49

https://youtu.be/mC9X5QIBFsM

Paul on SLR, latest.

I continue to expand upon my argument that global sea level will rise 7 meters by 2070, as I originally discussed over 5 years ago in a video. An Arctic Blue-Ocean Event (BOE) that is very likely by 2022 will cause very large Arctic warming. With no sea-ice left to melt, we lose our Arctic “refrigerator” and all that previous “latent heat” will now be “sensible heat” jacking up temperatures. This will further expose Greenland to accelerated, catastrophic ice loss with rapid sea-level rise and abrupt increases in frequency, severity, duration of extreme weather events globally.



Exponential, now only mm a year, 7 meters by 2070, steep acceleration after first BOE, GIS exposed to extreme temperatures.
7 meters in 50 years, on average 4 inch a year but local differences and not linear so steep at the end, minor at the start, the power of the exponent.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 14:54:56

File under "cool sh!t" or "what gets covered when sea levels rise"...basically, Atlantis! :-D 8O :roll:

Stone Age Boat Building Site Discovered Underwater


https://phys.org/news/2019-08-stone-age ... water.html

The Maritime Archaeological Trust has discovered a new 8,000 year old structure next to what is believed to be the oldest boat building site in the world on the Isle of Wight.

The site lies east of Yarmouth, and the new platform is the most intact, wooden Middle Stone Age structure ever found in the UK. The site is now 11 meters below sea level and during the period there was human activity on the site, it was dry land with lush vegetation. Importantly, it was at a time before the North Sea was fully formed and the Isle of Wight was still connected to mainland Europe.

The site was first discovered in 2005 and contains an arrangement of trimmed timbers that could be platforms, walkways or collapsed structures. ... It was then excavated by the Maritime Archaeological Trust during the summer and has revealed a cohesive platform consisting of split timbers, several layers thick, resting on horizontally laid round-wood foundations.

Garry continued "The site contains a wealth of evidence for technological skills that were not thought to have been developed for a further couple of thousand years, such as advanced wood working. This site shows the value of marine archaeology for understanding the development of civilisation.
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Atlantis

Unread postby Whitefang » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 17:04:42

Thanks for the link D,

Makes you wonder what will be uncovered by the collapsing ice sheets, remnants of the past ages of the human enterprise, an experiment.
With the second flood now upon us, part of our civilisation will end, maybe part of Atlantis will be in clear view once the dust settles down.
Keep having these dreams of really big waves, from right to left, I think from the North standing at a westcoast artefact that Holland is. I were always for the waves to destroy sand castles on the beach, watching every major storm if I could, walking and listening to the wind hauwling, waves roaring and crashing onto boulders and dykes.
Most dangerous were the double or triple waves, they do not crash or break, but slide with huge speed on top of each other, silent killer waves, not whales. Never turn your back on them, be alert, always.

Plato meant our other perception that his mentor Socrates could clearly experience, see.
The view from the cave remember?
Once you know how to break this world, everything you have a word for, the universe…..you end up on the windy side, dark sea of awareness that you can mold into another world to be lived, experienced, not to be understood by petty reason, it is abstract and personal.
From the location of reason you can clearly see the other side, the irrational.
Hence philosophy trying to make sense, using the wrong tool to travel into the unknown.
Silence is the key, to stop thinking and store personal power you need to break the barrier of perception.
No need to look for Atlantis therefore, everything is already here and there.
It is an internal affair, this world and the next. :?

Before the flood, the fall of mankind, agriculture and the rest, humans were busy within both worlds, a direct contact with the supernatural, we lost a battle and the war back then, the war up in heaven that dragged us down below :oops:
A huge price to pay for knowledge, the apple from that tree, enslaved in a matrix, born into captivity, the idea that this world is all there is. Self domesticated, self reflection based of self pity raising pseudo problems that give rise to feelings that deplete your energy, your personal power.
Chained to a world that is going down, going under, that is toast.

Problem is that you live and die in both worlds, the other world has potential to last, our first world of magic, true power that can be ours if we dare use it before we are to old and frail to make it work, turn our ally into a functional unit, a high speed inorganic being.
Drifting a bit, all connected I think but I have been wrong before :roll:
You have to see for yourself, personal power is all you need, no teachers, no books no nothing.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 19:44:17

Wow, thanks for the deep thoughts. Some of it went over my tiny head, I'm afraid.

So do you live in the Netherlands? If so, does sea level come up much in conversation there?
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 21 Sep 2019, 07:58:27

America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

Mass migration begins as coastal homes are bulldozed in the state facing the biggest threat from climate-driven inundation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... Y28NxQbPVQ

“The scale of this is almost unfathomable,” said Billy Fleming, a landscape architecture professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

“If we take any of the climate science seriously, we’re down to the last 10 to 12 years to mobilize the full force of the government and move on managed retreat.

If we don’t, it won’t matter, because much of America will be underwater or on fire
.”
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 21 Sep 2019, 08:25:51

dohboi wrote:America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

Mass migration begins as coastal homes are bulldozed in the state facing the biggest threat from climate-driven inundation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... Y28NxQbPVQ

]


Kudzu Ape exit stage right, red mangrove, egrets, sand plovers enter stage left.

Nature waiting on the sidelines ready to recolonize former habitat.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 21 Sep 2019, 08:55:00

dohboi wrote:America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... Y28NxQbPVQ


Quote from your reference: "Her bedroom is still a no-go zone so she sleeps in the living room with her cat and three dogs."

Another failed female.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 21 Sep 2019, 09:23:46

A few years ago I stumbled across a Florida real estate business magazine article. It openly admitted that SLR was going to happen. It took the stance that Florida developers had only limited time to develop their properties and sell them before the market would collapse, and recommended that the developers do so as fast as possible. I’ve looked for the article but can no longer find it.

Also, my understanding is, many/most of the condominiums around Miami are unoccupied. They have been bought by SA elites looking for a stake in the USA, a bug out spot so to speak, and have invested heavily in head condominiums. Don’t know that’s true, but I think it’s true that the Miami area has had a lot of SA real estate activity in the past few years.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/busine ... 15294.html

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ising-seas

Looking at the situation from another angle SLR may effect the aquifers making safe drinking water the first substantial impact.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... er-problem
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 21 Sep 2019, 09:43:13

Newfie wrote: and recommended that the developers do so as fast as possible.


Closing oct 1 on our last florida property
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 21 Sep 2019, 17:41:44

Ibon wrote: "Closing oct 1 on our last florida property"

Congrats!
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Re:

Unread postby diemos » Sun 22 Sep 2019, 10:29:49

Whitefang wrote:Paul on SLR, latest.
Exponential, now only mm a year, 7 meters by 2070, steep acceleration after first BOE, GIS exposed to extreme temperatures.
7 meters in 50 years, on average 4 inch a year but local differences and not linear so steep at the end, minor at the start, the power of the exponent.


Paul's interesting but you need to take him with a grain of salt.

There's no sign of exponential increase in either the satellite sea level data or the greenland ice sheet mass balance.

For his prediction to come true we would need an average of 140 mm/year over the next 50 years. We're currently at 3 mm/year. At the end of the last ice age we hit a maximum sea level rise of 17 mm/year.

A blue ocean event marks the end of the positive feedback loop of increased solar absorption and there hasn't been any sign of an exponential increase in the rate of sea ice loss either. So I'm highly dubious about that prediction.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 22 Sep 2019, 12:42:50

diemos wrote:There's no sign of exponential increase in either the satellite sea level data or the greenland ice sheet mass balance.


That appears to be a blatantly false statement, which doesn't bode well for the rest of your arguments. AFAK, sea level rise is accelerating according to the data. Any acceleration yields an exponential change, in sea level, in this case. BOE is one factor driving the acceleration, but melt water and surface area can be another factor. The change in acceleration is probably beyond our current understanding though, but there are enough positive feedbacks to indicate that a lost of just one will not stop this progression. No one can say 2060 or 2070 or 2080, but maybe 2070 is a good pick.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 22 Sep 2019, 14:09:51

If we end up with doubling every 5 years, something Hanson has proposed as a possibility iirc, we would get about 3000 mm (obviously = 3m) of slr a year in 50 years (if my maths are roughly correct).

I also don't think anything close to this is likely, but what we are doing to the planet is unprecedented...so to cite precedents is not completely convincing.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 22 Sep 2019, 18:31:29

Diemos,

So you are saying we have 3.3mm of SLR and that is a linear, not exponential?

I’m not so sure about your claim that a BOE would be the end of positive feedback loops. Your statement is vague. The way I see it a BOE does not END the feedback loop. It would possibly cause ONE feedback loop to slow down. The BOE would likely happen in Sept but the sun is at its apex months earlier when there would still be a lot of ice around. I think you are confusing a BOE with the year round end of all ice which would be a very long way in the future.

But there are other feedback loops, just the changed albido itself is a feedback loop.

Just considering this now I would say the steady loss of sea ice creates warming (feedback 1) which in itself warms the air and changes air circulation patterns (feedback 2). So after some point halting feedback 1 would not stop or reverse feedback 2.
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