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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby marmico » Wed 07 Aug 2019, 11:38:24

Yippee. Heading back to 2% average spend on gasoline in household after tax budgets.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 08 Aug 2019, 04:34:00

WTI

The mother of all triangles of doom.

Technically nothing is broken yet. Looks as if we have until the summer of 2021 until this mother breaks down.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBX7Xh6XoAU ... name=large
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Cog » Thu 08 Aug 2019, 04:43:09

Funny how oil doom keeps getting pushed out until next year or the year after that. Rinse and repeat, the doomers creed.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 08 Aug 2019, 06:52:54

WTI

The mother of all triangles of doom.


Some guy with a ruler, and a red marker may be undone by the Russians, and Chinese that appear determined to put Iran back into the oil business. $30 a barrel oil could appear real quick. Trump needs to fire his resident neo-cons, and put someone with some common sense in their place. Alfred E. Newman would be an improvement. The Iran situation has turned out to be a mangled mess. We can hardly wonder why is looks so much like North Korea, and Venezuela? The DC approach of lots of balls, and short on brains is not working very well.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 08 Aug 2019, 12:55:08

Cog wrote:Funny how oil doom keeps getting pushed out until next year or the year after that. Rinse and repeat, the doomers creed.

And funny how basically impossible the $2 ETP prediction by 2021 looks, absent a giant meteor that destroys the global economy. But these clowns will shriek "crash" at every blip down in every indicator. Just look at the amount of garbage (considering overall sourcing and lack of real citations and the greatly exaggerated claims, re importance) armageddon spews on this thread weekly, and how "balanced" that "reporting" is.

And I know, SOME DAY we'll have an ordinary recession (as multiple folks here have pointed out is inevitable and a big "SO WHAT?") and he'll be shrieking how right he was and how we're all doomed to hyperinflation and a whole herd of maladies.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 08 Aug 2019, 13:25:11

Maybe they can keep the WTI price up until 2021 with negative rates?

The 2 year treasury yield looks as if it will hit -4 in 2021.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBXd4b4WwAM ... name=large
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 08 Aug 2019, 15:09:54

Yoshua wrote:Maybe they can keep the WTI price up until 2021 with negative rates?

The 2 year treasury yield looks as if it will hit -4 in 2021.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBXd4b4WwAM ... name=large

Really? So what do you base that on? Sorry if the following questions are "too easy", but given your apparent lack of a grasp on economics you've shown on this site re your various comments:

You DO realize that an interest rate of negative 4 percent on a 2 year treasury would be totally unprecedented, right?

How does this jibe with your fellow fast crash doomer Armageddon, who is predicting hyper-inflation?

You DO realize that hyperinflation and wildly negative interest rates are completely incompatible forecasts, right?

Look at the chart you linked to. What part of that chart indicates you can just take a short term trend line and extend it forever? (Oh, by the way, today's interest rate moves make you look dead wrong already.)

What part of that chart makes you think anyone but (to some extent) the Fed can predict US interest rates with any meaningful accuracy over time? The Fed has problems and they CONTROL short term interest rates to some extent, by the way. :idea:

Oh right, you are still an ETP adherent, even with the track record of shorty's predictions. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 04:06:17

Looks like the WTI price has started to accelerate down...just like Etp Model's MAP curve.

This is deflationary...we need negative rates to fight deflation.

https://nasdaq.websol.barchart.com/?mod ... 1565600487
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 08:54:51

Looks like the WTI price has started to accelerate down...just like Etp Model's MAP curve.

This is deflationary...we need negative rates to fight deflation.

https://nasdaq.websol.barchart.com/?mod ... 1565600487
Y

The only thing that negative rates are going to do at this point is collapse the credit markets. The CB now have one option, and only one; helicopter money. That may keep the store shelves stocked for another year?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 12:21:32

Will the Fed drop helicopter money on the entire global population? No...I didn't think so either.

Anyone who wants to adopt an European? Just kidding. I'm going down with this old bitch.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 13:20:59

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And funny how basically impossible the $2 ETP prediction by 2021 looks,


I haven't been reading his posts outside of other people quoting him, but I think Short is gradually letting go of his attachment to ETP and hitching his wagon on Armageddon's debt-bomb narrative instead. This is part of his face-saving maneuver to sort silently brush it under the rug and continue onward with a fresh end-is-nigh narrative. Of course, if pushed on this he'll wave his hands and say ETP and debt-bomb are two sides of the same coin, but he won't be able to reconcile oil prices not tracking out the way his algorithm predicts.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 14:27:10

Asg70 is still trying to understand the correlation between falling Net Energy and Rising Debt?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 16:04:19

Asg70 is still trying to understand the correlation between falling Net Energy and Rising Debt?


He has trouble with physical phenomena. Maybe he should work on the simpler stuff first:

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 13 Aug 2019, 09:56:51

Yoshua wrote:Asg70 is still trying to understand the correlation between falling Net Energy and Rising Debt?



ETP dies on the field of its price-chart.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Aug 2019, 02:50:32

shortonoil wrote:
Asg70 is still trying to understand the correlation between falling Net Energy and Rising Debt?


He has trouble with physical phenomena. Maybe he should work on the simpler stuff first:

Image

Says the clown who is constantly wrong about everything he posts, year after year. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 15 Aug 2019, 07:44:45

Says the clown who is constantly wrong about everything he posts, year after year.


His latest study of an engineering project is working out about as well as his last one!
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The ERoEI of petroleum has just fallen below 8.0:1 to 7.987:1. World debt has topped $329 trillion. Over $15 trillion of that debt is now paying a negative rate. At an ERoEI of 6.9:1 and a debt load of $1,080 trillion the world's economy shuts down. We will be there within a decade. As we approach that time the store shelves will go bare, and the stores will keep disappearing. The end of the oil age will be preceded by a world in economic ruin.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 04:50:30

The Russian ruble doesn't like low oil prices. The ruble fell with the oil price crash in 2014 and is now breaking down again.

With mass protests in Moscow, Russia is becoming more and more politically unpredictable.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECUhsLKXsAA ... name=large
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 07:18:50

The euro has followed the oil price as well. I really don't know why the euro has been following the oil price.

The euro has now formed a death cross and is just about to break down from its support line.

Just in time for a new stimulus package from the ECB.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECZgxUUXYAA ... name=large
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 09:59:46

With mass protests in Moscow, Russia is becoming more and more politically unpredictable.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECUhsLKXsAA ... name=large


Unpredictable societies with a predictable bomb may not work out very well!

With no new oil coming on online to replace what we are using; the unpredictable will become very predictable. 7.4 billion predictably hungry residents are going to be acting unpredictably.

Of course the U.S. is definitely not the only major economy that is facing serious troubles. In fact, signs of economic trouble have been emerging all over the globe lately…


Anyone trying to exit corporate and high-yield debt positions is finding chronic illiquidity makes any exit expensive. Even government bond markets have proved highly illiquid through the summer –Treasury market bid/offers have widened. It’s too easy to simply blame thin summer markets for illiquidity – bond market liquidity has been tumbling since the 2008 crash. Dealer inventory is close to zero. Everyone is just a bond broker. (As I’ve said before – if a crunch comes then corporate debt markets will be about as liquid as concrete..)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08- ... s-imminent

The world is dying of energy starvation, and the economists still believe that by tweaking interest rates that they can fix the problem. If ignorance was bliss they would all be in heaven. 100 year bonds are now all the rage as interest rates are driven further into the magical land of the negative. Magical because as rates go down liquidity magically disappears. Of course, no one ever got rich holding negative yield bonds? But, that is just one more little technicality that the economists will have worked out any day now. The obvious solution is to just get rid of all the money, then liquidity won't matter? The economists have now elicited the support of every government in the world to accomplish it, and they won't stop until every last nickel has been eradicated from the face of the planet. There is nothing to worry about, "they" have it all under control.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 11:00:34

With no new oil coming on online to replace what we are using; the unpredictable will become very predictable. 7.4 billion predictably hungry residents are going to be acting unpredictably.


For the thousandth time, in the US oil production is being replaced ~130% on a running 5 year basis. Globally the replacement rate is around 150%. The US rates are published yearly by Ernst and Young and the BP replacement rates are identified by looking at any changes year on year with regards to oil life.

So please stop repeating this utter nonsense.
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