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DNC Debate - September

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DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 16:32:19

The 3rd debate will be held in September. At that time the field will be significantly culled. Participants need 130,000 contributors and at least 2% in 3 DNC sanctioned polls to be on the stage.

Because Inslee is the only one talking climate change I chipped in a couple of bucks to help him get over the bar. But he seems to be polling very poorly. Having Inslee on the panel would help discussion about climate change if nothing else.

Here is a 538 review of the status.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it ... er-debate/
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 30 Jul 2019, 09:41:05

Newfie wrote:The 3rd debate will be held in September. At that time the field will be significantly culled. Participants need 130,000 contributors and at least 2% in 3 DNC sanctioned polls to be on the stage.

Because Inslee is the only one talking climate change I chipped in a couple of bucks to help him get over the bar. But he seems to be polling very poorly. Having Inslee on the panel would help discussion about climate change if nothing else.

Here is a 538 review of the status.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it ... er-debate/


We discuss sometimes how issues or political figures do not rise in a vacuum, there is something in the collective soup that will resonate when a charismatic leader or pregnant issue gains traction.

I have recently listened to Inslee. I resonated with his message on climate change and also on his pragmatic record in rural Washington in being effective. So that is maybe you and me Newfie and a few others. Is there within the collective enough people to allow Inslee to rise?

I seriously doubt it at this point. We haven't suffered enough pain yet due to consequences but I might be wrong. There have been quite a few heat waves, fires, displaced flood victims, anomalies to waken the public that we face devastating consequences up ahead. But more likely, which is my view, the collective prefers sleepwalking on this issue, preferring the tranquilizer of denial so that they can hold on to their mediocre cultural values.

The collective has no real fire to change the status quo, just profound mediocrity. Until I see evidence to the contrary I see little chance of Inslee gaining traction.
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 30 Jul 2019, 10:30:38

I’ve been reading a book I think you may like. SAPIENS. He has some interesting perspectives.

https://www.amazon.com/Sapiens-Humankin ... 0062316095
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 30 Jul 2019, 13:07:32

Newfie wrote:I’ve been reading a book I think you may like. SAPIENS. He has some interesting perspectives.

https://www.amazon.com/Sapiens-Humankin ... 0062316095


Like my mother did I suffer insomnia...or I should say I used to. I know longer even attempt to sleep, I read. Probably 40-50 books a year. I read Sapiens last year and enjoyed it.

I never read during the day, no time. No television. Limited internet.

With all humility that is why I am smart and not mediocre

Some of us on this site are well read. Others less so. It is actually easy to tell where folks get their information from how they post. Those whose knowledge is derived from the media and internet are the easiest to identify. And I will refrain from using any adjectives to describe them.

Related to this thread what are the chances of someone like Inslee inspiring the electorate to grasp the threat of climate change when they are steeped deeply in superficial pursuits, not exercising their minds, deadened with mediocrity?

I am not only referring to formal education when I mention the lack of intellectual integrity in the population at large. Rural folks still deeply connected to the land and still connected to physical manual work are often intellectually very active, very much awake, not deadened by consumption and mediocrity. They are becoming more and more rare though as the mundane reaches deep into all socio economic corners.

A book provides in depth information. The media is sound bites, entertainment, designed to trigger emotions not intellectual rigor. The internet? A deeper insidious form of trash and mediocrity in the way most are using it.

Inslee has to fight against the mediocrity dominating the collective soup. How can his message rise when the majority are doped?
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 30 Jul 2019, 15:15:44

Further comments on this, the electorate reacts to cheap entertainment, emotions, stoking grievances, etc. Inslee mentioned in a podcast I listened to recently that there is this big swing happening, the electorate is waking up to the reality of climate change, people are suffering consequences like fires, heat waves, droughts, flooding etc. Inslee believes this is entering into the zeitgeist and the common man on the street is waking up. That it is working on that same emotional place that can create a wave.

Politics is like surfing. If you anticipate the wave too soon it will pass over you and break. If you are out in front of it then it will break before reaching you. Those who surf know this sweet spot where you paddle with perfect timing so that your board moves on top of the wave just as it crests and you catch it.

Inslee believes that the electorate is right there like a wave cresting and he is on the political surfboard to catch it just in time for the 2020 elections.

The problem is his projection on to the electorate is causing him to anticipate a wave that is not yet really there. He will be on his surf board and the wave will pass by. It will be a tiny wave. It wont have the power to carry him.

A lot can happen between now and 2020 but I think it is a bit too soon still for a climate change candidate. The collective soup focused on climate change is still too small. It's about a 2.5 foot wave. Good for little kiddies to go rafting on.

The big waves are still immigrants and communists. Climate change is abstract and still seen as the domain of the educated elite. More consequences have to bring it to the emotional level that can make it turn into a bigger wave.

Since most people stay in doors and watch TV and internet trash they are actually insulated from actually seeing the changes. Nobody really leaves air conditioned spaces in the summer. Too many organic messy things like sweat and bugs.
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 01 Aug 2019, 13:04:49

Maybe I’m seeing something that isn’t but from my small sample all the photos of last nights debate show Biden with some opponent (Harris or Booker) with Biden looking rather straight, restrained, but alert while the opponent is in some emotional pose either pointing their finger or rolling eyes.

My conspirital self says these images were chosen to show Biden looking Presidential while the opponent looks emotional.
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 01 Aug 2019, 17:19:57

Making some sense here.

Democrats need what I’d call a “first-things-first” campaign: a campaign that emphasizes progressive responses to the historically urgent challenges we face and recognizes the difficulties—political, practical, and even philosophical—of trying to check off all at once every item on the progressive wish list.

What are those historically urgent problems? The climate emergency comes first. Candidates call it an “existential threat,” but they aren’t giving it the priority those words imply. In dealing with climate, unlike many other issues, time is of the essence: The more we delay decarbonization, the more costly and political difficult it becomes, until catastrophe will be unavoidable. The basic premise of a Green New Deal also makes political sense: Combine the task of decarbonization with an infrastructure plan that creates jobs and delivers other tangible benefits in transportation, clean water, renewable energy, and other areas.



https://prospect.org/article/democrats- ... t-campaign
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 01 Aug 2019, 17:46:33

Pragmatically speaking the consequences of climate change SHOULD be a force, like the enemy is during a war, to unite a divided and polarized nation.

This truth is cooking in the collective like a pot of spaghetti. It is not yet aldente...

Inslee has to be praying in his secret heart of hearts for fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts and floods in the months ahead...

Events to act as catalysts in the embryonic fears brewing in the collective.

Is the timing right?
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 02 Aug 2019, 04:31:12

For 2024 maybe. And maybe that is what a lot of this is about, name recognition for 2024.
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Cog » Fri 02 Aug 2019, 05:18:14

As long as climate change remediation is firmly wrapped up in social justice and massive doses of socialism, it will not appeal to the majority of voters.
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 02 Aug 2019, 07:19:03

That’s right. It needs to be stripped out as a separate issue. You can tie it to energy depletion, water depletion, etc. The ties to social justice need to be broken.

Probably something similar can be said about illegal immigration. There are real issues behind it. Some of it is the conditions in the originating country. Some of it is that the USA holds itself out as the promised land. Probably the biggest impediment though is the flat USA population rise and the perceived need for “growth” which is interpreted as “growing population.” There are ways to address this other than illegal population, but we never get to that
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 02 Aug 2019, 10:01:31

Cog wrote:As long as climate change remediation is firmly wrapped up in social justice and massive doses of socialism, it will not appeal to the majority of voters.


The consequences of climate change should exert a force over time to change the political equation that has lead us to the current polarity. Both ideological extremes will be forced to bend to the will of external consequences.

We here are all obsolete baby boomers born in the cold war era. The arguments we present, either right or left, will be mostly irrelevant to how the private and public sector, how each and every individual will be forced to adapt.

Both Dick Cheney who in Rio stated that the American lifestyle is not in question regarding climate change and Bernie Sanders fantasy of social democracy rising everyone out of poverty, both of these positions, have no relevancy to our future.

Personal liberty will pay a price for the belief that the pursuit of personal liberty has no boundaries with respect to mother nature.

Nature bats last and nature sets the new paradigm that political ideologies will be forced to adapt to.

Never under estimate your own obsolescence regarding this topic and how all your well defended cherished beliefs are like a puff of smoke next to the consequences coming down the pike

Isn't that actually reassuring in the sense that our species has this amazing adaptability to break out of all the ideological impasses..... eventually......... even if sometimes we have to suffer inordinately for not having been wiser.
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby careinke » Fri 02 Aug 2019, 22:25:24

Cog wrote:As long as climate change remediation is firmly wrapped up in social justice and massive doses of socialism, it will not appeal to the majority of voters.


I'm glad your bet debt was called fulfilled, and you can still contribute. I have no doubt you would have paid in full, unlike some others on the board.

Back on topic.

It would be nice if climate change remediation could be "wrapped" up with mutually agreeable ideas. Some examples:

1. Eliminate dead zones off our rivers. Probably both sides could agree this is a worthy goal, with measurable results.

2. Clean up our air. Even putting climate change aside, both sides should be able to agree ICE engines put out a lot of very unhealthy chemicals, and clean alternatives need to be found. Concurrently, less travel can also reduce our emissions.

3. Rebuild topsoils, and geoengineer where possible to retain more freshwater on land, especially in fire prone areas.

I'm sure there are many more "wrappings" that can be made, but right now my garden is calling me.......
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 02 Aug 2019, 23:21:46

I'm playing catch-up with the debates. There are still candidates that I'm not too familiar with, but that will be whittled down soon.

I am impressed with Tulsi Gabbard's demeanor as a common-sense person and I'm impressed with Jay Inslee's ability to prioritize issues.

We got some good candidates here and I hope the Democrats can run with it and unite behind a good Presidential candidate as well as VP candidate.

Seems to me we should pick a team and not the usual way a VP candidate is chosen to gain votes in that state. I think it is much more important to choose the pair on the issues that they consider dear (and hope they follow through, unlike Obama).

2016 seems like ancient history now after listening to the issues in these primary debates. Trump has been so good at focusing the Democrat's attention on what's important.
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 06:05:40

careinke wrote:
Cog wrote:As long as climate change remediation is firmly wrapped up in social justice and massive doses of socialism, it will not appeal to the majority of voters.


I'm glad your bet debt was called fulfilled, and you can still contribute. I have no doubt you would have paid in full, unlike some others on the board.

Back on topic.

It would be nice if climate change remediation could be "wrapped" up with mutually agreeable ideas. Some examples:

1. Eliminate dead zones off our rivers. Probably both sides could agree this is a worthy goal, with measurable results.

2. Clean up our air. Even putting climate change aside, both sides should be able to agree ICE engines put out a lot of very unhealthy chemicals, and clean alternatives need to be found. Concurrently, less travel can also reduce our emissions.

3. Rebuild topsoils, and geoengineer where possible to retain more freshwater on land, especially in fire prone areas.

I'm sure there are many more "wrappings" that can be made, but right now my garden is calling me.......


Correct, this is the kind of argument line I’m following. You don’t even have to mention the trigger words “climate change”. There are plenty of topics that if addressed would assist with the climate change dilemma. And many things the conservative side can get behind as American values that overlap with climate change.
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 15:26:05

Newfie wrote:Correct, this is the kind of argument line I’m following. You don’t even have to mention the trigger words “climate change”. There are plenty of topics that if addressed would assist with the climate change dilemma. And many things the conservative side can get behind as American values that overlap with climate change.

Or, as a moderate, I'd like to see some moderation.

How about some workable CO2 reduction ideas that don't break the bank?

For one example, HEV's are now getting to be borderline financially viable, and the Toyota latest gen. technology means there aren't meaningful compromises which need to be made with the car (i.e. no more trunk-stealing batteries, poor handling, poor performance, etc). Just a small push like a small tax credit for such cars could greatly help their uptake. When they cut gasoline use roughly in half for overall city driving -- that's lots of progress for not many dollars. And this could be temporary, as the public will likely catch on within the next decade.

There is a huge amount of room between basically ignoring the problem and breaking the bank (and pretending that "social justice" is a climate change issue).

Do the dems want Trump out (which will require a reasonably moderate and sane candidate), or do they want 4 more years of indignant protesting?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 15:34:03

Ibon wrote:We here are all obsolete baby boomers born in the cold war era.

I don't see why we're all obsolete. We can choose to keep learning and adapting. We can keep up, at least to a large extent, with overall technology, science, etc.

I don't see why I need to be able to bench press 300 pounds, run a 12 second 100 yard dash, or work full time at company X, not to be "obsolete".

Oh, and attitudes can change as we learn. I didn't know climate change was much of a "thing" during the peak of my career. Now, I'd favor fairly massive transport fuel taxes, especially compared to any mainstream politician.

...

And I'm NOT upset or offended -- I'm just making what I hope is a somewhat valid point. (I'm 60. Clearly if I make it to 80, I'll be more obsolete. I get that. But if my mind holds up, I still plan to be clued in to math, science, and technology, at least at the layman level).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 21:30:42

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And I'm NOT upset or offended -- I'm just making what I hope is a somewhat valid point. (I'm 60. Clearly if I make it to 80, I'll be more obsolete. I get that. But if my mind holds up, I still plan to be clued in to math, science, and technology, at least at the layman level).


When I refer to us as being obsolete I am not meaning this like we are old and dysfunctional. I mean this in a more generational way.

Every one of us who grew up in the decades following WWII have a very clear idea about the cold war era, the complete failure of the planned economies of socialist countries. We developed very fixed ideas during this time that are relevant only within the dynamics of these past 50 years of rapid technological advance and enough abundance and wealth that made the choice simple.

The next 50 years the zeitgeist is going to undergo some real major shifts; demographics, diversity, instabilities due to climate change, mass migrations of peoples, etc. etc. The way the emerging generation will view the role of government will not be framed within the dichotomy that occurred during those cold war decades following WWII. It will be completely different. That is how we are all obsolete.

How many of us baby boomers on this site claim that millennials are a dysfunctional emerging generation clueless to the realities out there? Maybe we are also clueless regarding the zeitgeist that they are experiencing?

We are a bunch of baby boomers here rehashing old polarized memes. There is almost no fresh young perspective in the dialogue here. That is why I referred to this site as a cyber old peoples home for disenchanted baby boomers.

Its true mostly.
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Re: DNC Debate - September

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 04 Aug 2019, 10:09:13

Outcast,

Speaking to you as one with whom I can speak my mind, not having to shade my thoughts, I see no viable path forward that does not eventually result in a near complete shut down of the global financial system. To “break the bank” is a mere prelude to what I envision will happen.

The longer we delay taking effective action the further the retreat will be.

I know this is not a popular message, yet it is the truth. Or at least my vision of the truth, spoken in all honesty and candor.
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