Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 25 Jul 2019, 01:04:40

shortonoil wrote:
And of course you ignore any positive things like assets, earnings, GDP, etc. unless you think it suits your agenda.


GDP, the same world GDP that now has a DEBT/GDP ratio of 380%.
Do you do understand that debt is the % of assets which are secured by those assets. When all of the assets are security for debt, you are by definition bankrupt!

Most likely a brain tumor? It would take a truck load of Prozac to do that to a human brain.

If only you EVER posted reasonably credible stuff, maybe someone with a clue about economics would believe you.

Given your history, very doubtful, no matter how many tiny child level posts about brain tumors you endlessly blather.

Keep going. If zero credibility is your goal, you're making real progress.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7375
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 25 Jul 2019, 05:45:05

Total has decided to sell off upstream assets that have a high breakeven price. Total needs today an oil price of USD 50 to breakeven.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tota ... SKCN1UK0KO
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1704
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 25 Jul 2019, 13:13:54

Total has decided to sell off upstream assets that have a high breakeven price. Total needs today an oil price of USD 50 to breakeven.


that isn't what the article said at all but nice try at trying to manipulate the lazy reader.

from the article:

Its organic pre-dividend breakeven is below $25 a barrel, while the organic post-dividend breakeven - which would allow it to pay dividends and carry out investments - is below $50 a barrel.


This leaves Total optionality…they can lower dividends or lower further investments which further lowers their overall post-dividend break even. Also it is important to mention that Totals portfolio is mainly offshore deepwater and onshore/offshore natural gas. Gas prices globally on a BTU equivalent basis are lower than oil prices (if you used a global average of $6/MCF that equates to $36 per BOE) so that skews their portfolio breakeven substantially. As well the deepwater and ultra deepwater where Total has focussed E&P over the past decade has a higher breakeven than unconventionals (which is why Total is trying to grow their unconventional business).

You also failed to mention that when Pouyanne took over from De Margerie he focused on acquisitions. Those acquisitions often spook the market as to the overall long term impact on the bottom line. As a consequence Total needed to high grade their portfolio to alleviate those worries.

from the article:

“The announcement of the asset sales may help to offset some uncertainty around the recent growth and M&A strategy, demonstrating some ongoing discipline around the balance sheet and upstream portfolio,” said Henry Tarr, an analyst at Barenberg, which rates Total a “buy”.

So in fact what Total is doing is a normal course of business, something oil companies have been doing in good times and bad times for decades...refocus the portfolio to improve returns.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7312
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 25 Jul 2019, 16:03:01

Thanks for clarifying things.

Going out into space is easy, but oil production is something entirely different. So forgive me for not going into all details.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1704
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 25 Jul 2019, 17:35:39

If only you EVER posted reasonably credible stuff


Now incredibly perceptive of you. Can you state that with a creditable margin of error. It's a number between "0" and "1". It is something that scientists, and engineers use quit frequently. That way we can keep this on an "objective" note.

Outcast participating in the scientific revolution!

Image
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6399
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 25 Jul 2019, 19:25:18

When all of the assets are security for debt, you are by definition bankrupt! 


not the definition of bankrupt which is:

a debtor (such as an individual or an organization) whose property is subject to voluntary or involuntary administration under the bankruptcy laws for the benefit of the debtor's creditors


and completely wrong in the real world. There are many cases where debt financing is done in which the entirety of the asset backs up the debt. There are scores of oil and gas production schemes that have been financed where the entirety of the asset is held as collateral. The company makes money from the asset and is paying off its debt financing requirements. They are as far from bankrupt as can be.
If the company suddenly is no longer a going concern the bank or financial institution holding the debt can seize the asset.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7312
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 27 Jul 2019, 17:51:18

shortonoil wrote:
If only you EVER posted reasonably credible stuff

When all you can do is post total nonsense or cartoon pictures, why bother posting?

Nothing meaningful to do with your life?

Oh, I forgot the mindless name-calling you're great at doing, worthy of a seven year old, so there's that. :roll:

But seriously, other than failed economic rambling, how about something productive once in a while?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7375
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 27 Jul 2019, 17:55:05

shortonoil wrote:
If only you EVER posted reasonably credible stuff


Now incredibly perceptive of you. Can you state that with a creditable margin of error. It's a number between "0" and "1".

Given the veracity of what you post over time, how about .01? That's likely high, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

(Since you seem to be quite math impaired, that's 1%. :roll:

Feel free to prove otherwise, but given your problems posting the truth and your track record, I don't expect success.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7375
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 28 Jul 2019, 07:19:29

U.S gasoline and diesel prices are about to crash?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAbzYNMXoAA ... ame=medium
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1704
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 28 Jul 2019, 08:02:21

U.S gasoline and diesel prices are about to crash?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAbzYNMXoAA ... ame=medium


That follows the recent huge inventory increases that have been reported by the EIA for finished product. The refineries are producing it, but the economy is not buying it. At the same time US crude production is tanking. That is going to put a dent in the economy. But according to the FED there is only a 45% chance of a recession over the next year. The FED believes that the economy is all about consumption, and production is merely some minor detail. No wonder the FED hasn't been able to call a recession until after it has started in the last hundred years.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6399
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby marmico » Sun 28 Jul 2019, 09:13:05

That follows the recent huge inventory increases that have been reported by the EIA for finished product.


Once again Bozo Bedford demonstrates the 50 year decline in his neuron synapses. Gasoline stocks are in the upper end of the 5 year range. Distillate stocks are in the middle of the 5 year range.

Image

Image
marmico
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1055
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 28 Jul 2019, 09:57:43

Petrochemicals aren't doing so well either:

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... cal-prices
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1704
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 28 Jul 2019, 16:03:23

Once again Bozo Bedford demonstrates the 50 year decline


Go back to your Freddy charts knuckle head, you don't have to understand them; just cut and paste them.

Total stocks haven't been this high since 08/16, and they are historically high, and getting higher. 08/16 looks like the point where they will start to cut back production. After that the wheels fall off.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... ESTUS1&f=W
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6399
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 28 Jul 2019, 17:01:35

shortonoil wrote:Total stocks haven't been this high since 08/16, and they are historically high, and getting higher. 08/16 looks like the point where they will start to cut back production. After that the wheels fall off.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... ESTUS1&f=W

And when this cry of imminent doom proves completely false, as all your other calls, will you admit it? Ever?

Of course not.

Your picture belongs with the definition of "worthless", re your financial calls over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7375
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 28 Jul 2019, 17:04:48

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
shortonoil wrote:Total stocks haven't been this high since 08/16, and they are historically high, and getting higher. 08/16 looks like the point where they will start to cut back production. After that the wheels fall off.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... ESTUS1&f=W

And when this cry of imminent doom proves completely false, as all your other calls, will you admit it? Ever?

Of course not.

Your picture belongs with the definition of "worthless", re your financial calls over time.

Especially the endless doomer braying like "the wheels fall off".

In the real world, the wheels haven't even slowed down despite all the conatant "armageddon" hysteria around here -- for over a decade now. And aside from a possible normal recession, they show NO signs of doing so, to the financially literate.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7375
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 31 Jul 2019, 05:23:25

Asia LNG prices have hit rock bottom as the economy is slowing down.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAyz4jyX4AE ... name=small
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1704
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Cog » Wed 31 Jul 2019, 08:52:54

If they have hit rock bottom then they have no more room to move downward now do they?
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12854
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 31 Jul 2019, 10:13:46

Cog wrote:If they have hit rock bottom then they have no more room to move downward now do they?


The solution to low prices is...more low prices.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3033
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 31 Jul 2019, 12:19:11

Yoshua wrote:Asia LNG prices have hit rock bottom as the economy is slowing down.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAyz4jyX4AE ... name=small

Or they're reacting to supply and demand, as always. :roll:

In the real world, despite all the claims about how the masses can't afford fossil fuels, how isn't "rock-bottom" NG prices good for consumers and businesses who use NG? I can't find the economic doom in this -- being blinded by the shine from the economic good news. :)

Oh, and don't worry. If the NG prices are "too low" for production to be sustained, there is this thing called "the market", which will handle that just fine over time -- as ALWAYS. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7375
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 31 Jul 2019, 13:42:15

Outcast_Searcher wrote:how isn't "rock-bottom" NG prices good for consumers and businesses who use NG?


Because with doomers it's heads I win tails you lose. At least we don't have to withstand PStarr's "demand dearth" narrative anymore, but that message is still implicit in doomers anytime they want to spin things in a negative direction when the data doesn't support it.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3033
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests