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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby katkinkate » Fri 07 Jun 2019, 22:11:54

Hi, long time no write. I would like to point out that there is significant problems before any significant sea level rise. The increase of energy into the climate system is increasing the strength and number of storm events that affect all the people living on sandy beaches. The amount of sand on a beach is a balance between the destructive, erosive force of big storm waves and the constructive, sand-depositing calmer seas. Even before any SLR there is already increasing beach erosion affecting all development on the sandy beaches from the increased number and strength of stormy seas. Erosion of sand dunes will provide an actual reclamation of land by the ocean, before SLR becomes a big factor.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 07 Jun 2019, 22:13:40

Yes, as I said, far more will be affected in the future. But Florida residence already regularly have tidal water in their streets, island nations in the Pacific are in the process of finding ways to evacuate their populations, as sea water not only swamps their homes, but also salinates their wells and fields. Maybe I should have said there are already lots of places being affected. But of course, if you're in one of those places where the sea is taking over you home or making it uninhabitable, you don't care whether you are one of hundreds or thousands or millions or billions.

Another side of the issues is that sea level rise raises the 'floor' over which sudden extreme events like hurricanes happen. We tend to think of slr as this slow thing that everyone can just gradually adjust to.

But as recent hurricanes in the US and elsewhere have shown, 'gradual' slr rather suddenly makes itself felt in quite catastrophic ways when they exacerbate extreme events (especially as these have already been exacerbated by increased moisture and energy in the system through CC).

So I would add pretty much all the places devastated by hurricane/cyclone driven sea water in the last decade or so to the tally: NYC, Houston, NOLA, PR, and all the other here and abroad.

Is that starting to look like 'lots' yet? :) :)

(And welcome back, kat!)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 07 Jun 2019, 22:45:33

But Florida residence already regularly have tidal water in their streets, island nations in the Pacific are in the process of finding ways to evacuate their populations, as sea water not only swamps their homes, but also salinates their wells and fields. Maybe I should have said there are already lots of places being affected.


as I said this is due to "relative sea level rise" which is the combination of a little bit of actual sea level rise with a lot of subsidence. There are a number of pacific islands where everyone was concerned that have not had a problem simply because they are still rising (volcanic islands do that) against the background of gradually rising sea level.

Another side of the issues is that sea level rise raises the 'floor' over which sudden extreme events like hurricanes happen. We tend to think of slr as this slow thing that everyone can just gradually adjust to.


that's just more arm waving with no numbers. As I said if you go all the way back 60 years there has only been 4 inches or so of actual sea level rise...this will do absolutely nothing to increasing storm surge, but go ahead, prove me wrong.

You keep confusing relative sea level rise with actual sea level rise. Relative sea level rise is mainly due to subsidence and/or isostatic rebound whereas actual sea level rise is a product of ground water, ice melt and thermal expansion.

So I would add pretty much all the places devastated by hurricane/cyclone driven sea water in the last decade or so to the tally: NYC, Houston, NOLA, PR, and all the other here and abroad.


It's a freaking hurricane and it brings water with it....just like it did a hundred years ago. NYC...subsiding due to all the building, Houston ...the whole Gulf Coast is subsiding...New Orleans...whole Gulf Coast is subsiding and on and on.

You want to infer all of this has something to do with climate and it doesn't.
Is that starting to look like 'lots' yet? :) :)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 08 Jun 2019, 04:56:55

Rick,

You are correct that SLR so far has been pretty minor. And folks confuse SLR with subsidence. And Dohboi used an ambiguous term when he said “lots.” There is some SLR and it is affecting some folks, if you are in that effected community then perhaps “lots” of your neighbors are effected.

Why the hell are we arguing over this? What specifically about his post got under your skin? That you feel he is overstating the SLR effect to date? That you think SLR is a hoax? Please clarify.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 08 Jun 2019, 19:21:00

Good questions, Newf.

Meanwhile, here's a proposed map of The Netherlands in 2300:

https://www.vn.nl/wp-content/uploads/si ... nglish.jpg

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... ion=recent
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 09:18:43

Here's another reminder that the ocean doesn't have to actually be covering you land for sea level rise to make it unusable/uninhabitable:

In India’s Sundarbans, communities shrink as their island sinks


...
Ocean water has contaminated much of the island’s meager freshwater supply and left 70 percent of Mousuni’s land too salty to farm, destroying the majority of its inhabitants’ livelihoods.


https://news.mongabay.com/2019/07/in-in ... and-sinks/
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 13:39:57

dohboi wrote:Here's another reminder that the ocean doesn't have to actually be covering you land for sea level rise to make it unusable/uninhabitable:

In India’s Sundarbans, communities shrink as their island sinks


...
Ocean water has contaminated much of the island’s meager freshwater supply and left 70 percent of Mousuni’s land too salty to farm, destroying the majority of its inhabitants’ livelihoods.


https://news.mongabay.com/2019/07/in-in ... and-sinks/


Florida is a peninsula surrounded on three sides by the ocean. The land is porous limestone. 21.3 million inhabitants, mostly in the southern half of the state which is drained everglades, are sucking hard on the fresh water aquifers accelerating salt water intrusion inland.

A very popular river to kayak in West Palm beach county is the Loxahatchee River. As you drift along the last 5 kilometers the shoreline is all mangroves, there are ospreys and comorants perched on the bare branches of old ancient dead patriarchs, the once majestic bald cypress trees that died when salt water intruded up the river during the past 30 years.

Florida is one of those ground zero places this century where a combination of factors will create a mass exodus...... Snowy Egrets, Roseate Spoonbills, Florida Panthers, bobcats, Wood Storks, Anhingas, Limpkins and Purple Gallinules are all waiting on the sidelines for this mass exodus to occur. They will be direct beneficiaries of this modern 21st Century RIver to Tears as humans make their way north.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 13:16:17

You are describing relatively stable conditions. Unfortunately, that is not what we are heading into.

Hurricanes will be getting ever stronger. Droughts in between these extreme rain and wind events will get ever longer and deeper.

I am sure that there will be some place that will do better than others. I am not at all sure that we can accurately guess which will be which in most cases.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 13:30:16

dohboi wrote:You are describing relatively stable conditions. Unfortunately, that is not what we are heading into.


I know what you meant by that but perhaps stop a moment and consider that 21 million Kudzu Apes living in Florida is not exactly what I would call a relatively stable condition :)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 15:51:21

Good point.

Bbbbut...aren't they all stable genius Kudzu Apes? :)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 19:49:52

Technically they are. However, even in Florida SLR is so very slow that even elderly people from NYC in wheelchairs could easily outpace it.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 22:17:27

rockdoc123 wrote:that's just more arm waving with no numbers. As I said if you go all the way back 60 years there has only been 4 inches or so of actual sea level rise...this will do absolutely nothing to increasing storm surge, but go ahead, prove me wrong.
Storms have been surging further inland along with sea level rise. And the rate of sea level rise is accelerating. The floodplain area increased further inland from 1880 to 2010. And increases yet more by 2050 and 2100:

Rising sea levels put our coasts at risk
Roughly a third of the US population—more than 100 million people—live in coastal counties. Coastal states with large areas of low-lying land, including Louisiana, Florida, North Carolina, California, and South Carolina, are particularly vulnerable to rising seas and coastal storm surges.
Image
Causes of Sea Level Rise: What the Science Tells Us

Global warming has raised global sea level about 8 inches since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating. Rising seas dramatically increase the odds of damaging floods from storm surges. A Climate Central analysis finds the odds of “century” or worse floods occurring by 2030 are on track to double or more, over widespread areas of the U.S. These increases threaten an enormous amount of damage. Across the country, nearly 5 million people live in 2.6 million homes at less than 4 feet above high tide — a level lower than the century flood line for most locations analyzed. And compounding this risk, scientists expect roughly 2 to 7 more feet of sea level rise this century — a lot depending upon how much more heat-trapping pollution humanity puts into the sky.
Surging Seas: Sea level rise analysis

Mapping Coastal Flood Risk Lags Behind Sea Level Rise

The rate of global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades, rather than increasing steadily, according to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European satellite data. This acceleration, driven mainly by increased melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100 when compared to projections that assume a constant rate of sea level rise. If the rate of ocean rise continues to change at this pace, sea level will rise 26 inches (65 centimeters) by 2100 — enough to cause significant problems for coastal cities, according to the new assessment by Nerem and colleagues from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland; CU Boulder; the University of South Florida in Tampa; and Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. The team, driven to understand and better predict Earth's response to a warming world, published their work Feb. 12 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"This is almost certainly a conservative estimate," Nerem said. "Our extrapolation assumes that sea level continues to change in the future as it has over the last 25 years. Given the large changes we are seeing in the ice sheets today, that's not likely."
New study finds sea level rise accelerating – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

rockdoc123 wrote:It's a freaking hurricane and it brings water with it....just like it did a hundred years ago. NYC...subsiding due to all the building, Houston ...the whole Gulf Coast is subsiding...New Orleans...whole Gulf Coast is subsiding and on and on.

You want to infer all of this has something to do with climate and it doesn't.
Climate change does indeed have an effect on storms and sea level rise. Sure land subsidence is a large factor as well. But that doesn't mean the sea level rise is not being driven by climate change.

Sea level is rising — and at an accelerating rate — especially along the US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico
Global average sea level rose roughly eight inches from 1880 - 2009.
The average annual rate of global sea level rise accelerated from 1993 - 2008, increasing 65 - 90 percent above the twentieth century average.

Global warming is the primary cause of current sea level rise
Human activities, such as burning coal and oil and cutting down tropical forests, have increased atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping gases and caused the planet to warm.

* Rising temperatures are warming ocean waters, which expand as the temperature increases. This thermal expansion was the main driver of global sea level rise for 75 - 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution, though its relative contribution has declined as the shrinking of land ice has accelerated.

* Land ice—glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets—is shrinking at a faster rate in response to rising temperatures, adding water to the world's oceans.

* As the rate of ice loss has accelerated, its contribution to global sea level rise has increased from a little more than half of the total increase from 1993 - 2008 to 75 - 80 percent of the total increase between 2003 - 2007.
Causes of Sea Level Rise: What the Science Tells Us
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 09:46:39

Thanks, kub.

No matter how many times we repeat it, people just don't seem to get it. GW-driven slr is not just about very gradually rising high tides. It means that mega storm, which are getting ever more mega, have a higher 'platform' from which to drive devastation ever further inland.

In a way, the best thing for getting the message across to the people in harms way would be if mega storms happened reliably a couple times a year. That way they could see and plan for the increased harms.

But in any particular location, a mega storm is not likely to hit more than once every decade or two (and recall that, in the Atlantic basin at least, storm frequency is not predicted to increase, just storm intensity and size).

So people inland end up feeling smug because they were safe from storm surge during the last mega-storm or hurricane. But by the time the next one comes along the storm is much stronger and the 'floor' from which the surge is coming is much higher. So what people thought was reliably safe, since it was still far from the incrementally rising sea level, are actually going to get suddenly and devastatingly wiped out.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 08:53:46

I'm with Guy on this. SLR will NOT be our primary concern. It may be the icing on the cake though. It is also the easiest to measure as it is not exactly a stocastic process. Here, Guy takes down the 'gradualist' interpretation of peak climate as promoted by James Hansen and, fortunately, it's a short video. Guy keeps on hammering on Habitat, Habitat. A species that destroys it's own habitat is a terminal, terminating species (my own description, though).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptZYig-wyX8
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Jul 2019, 19:42:40

Place under the very loooong file titled 'faster than expected"...

Underwater Glacial Melting is Occurring at Higher Rates Than Modeling Predicts


https://phys.org/news/2019-07-underwate ... igher.html

Researchers have developed a new method to allow for the first direct measurement of the submarine melt rate of a tidewater glacier, and, in doing so, they concluded that current theoretical models may be underestimating glacial melt by up to two orders of magnitude.

... Most previous research on the underwater melting of glaciers relied on theoretical modeling, measuring conditions near the glaciers and then applying theory to predict melt rates. But this theory had never been directly tested.

To test these models in the field, the research team of oceanographers and glaciologists deployed a multibeam sonar to scan the glacier's ocean-ice interface from a fishing vessel six times in August 2016 and five times in May 2017.

The sonar allowed the team to image and profile large swaths of the underwater ice, where the glacier drains from the Stikine Icefield. Also gathered were data on the temperature, salinity and velocity of the water downstream from the glacier, which allowed the researchers to estimate the meltwater flow.

"We measured both the ocean properties in front of the glacier and the melt rates, and we found that they are not related in the way we expected," Jackson said. "These two sets of measurements show that melt rates are significantly, sometimes up to a factor of 100, higher than existing theory would predict."

The research team found that submarine melt rates were high across the glacier's face over both of the seasons surveyed, and that the melt rate increases from spring to summer.


D.A. Sutherland atUniversity of OregoninEugene, OR el al., "Direct observations of submarine melt and subsurface geometry at a tidewater glacier," Science (2019)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 31 Jul 2019, 06:23:46

SLR is bad. As in the following, it will often be exacerbated by bad local/corporate decisions/greed:


https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... ing-sea-le

It won’t be long’: why a Honduran community will soon be under water


Rising sea levels are destroying coastal towns in Honduras – and shrimp farms which export to the UK and US are making it worse

by Nina Lakhani in Cedeño, Choluteca

Eric Pineda runs a modest beachfront restaurant which serves up plates of fresh fish and rice – and faces imminent destruction.

A recent tidal surge razed the nightclub next door, leaving a pastel pink ruin, and in the past two years, several other businesses between Pineda’s property and the Pacific Ocean have been destroyed by sudden waves.

“Every year, the ocean is getting closer and higher. I think we’ve got a year – maybe two – before the water takes us too,” said Pineda, 24. “It won’t be long.”

Sea levels are rising around the world, but in this region another local factor is helping speed up coastal degradation: swathes of mangrove forests have been destroyed to make way for industrial shrimp farms which have proliferated even inside protected reserves.

Many Honduran shrimps are exported to the US and the UK, where they are sold in major supermarket chains including Waitrose, Sainsbury’s and Marks & Spencer.

“The industry destroys huge mangrove sites promising development, but actually creates very few jobs – and actually increases poverty by restricting fishing access for locals,” said Dina Morel, director of a local marine conservation organization, known by its acronym Coddeffagolf.


(Don't eat industrial shrimp!)

Further down in the article:

...Pedro Landa from Eric, a Jesuits human rights research organisation, said the lessons from (hurricane) Mitch were never learned. “Since the [2009] coup, the state has been increasingly controlled by mafia politicians with no interest in guaranteeing water supplies or economic development for ordinary people, just for themselves.”

Conclusion by a local...
Basically we’re fucked.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 07:56:57

The California coast is disappearing under the rising sea. Our choices are grim

But lines in the sand are meant to shift. In the last 100 years, the sea rose less than 9 inches in California. By the end of this century, the surge could be greater than 9 feet.

Wildfire and drought dominate the climate change debates in the state. Yet this less-talked-about reality has California cornered. The coastline is eroding with every tide and storm, but everything built before we knew better — Pacific Coast Highway, multimillion-dollar homes in Malibu, the rail line to San Diego — is fixed in place with nowhere to go.


https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me- ... nia-coast/


Three People Killed in California After a Bluff Collapses on Beachgoers, Burying Them Alive


A 30-foot by 25-foot section of cliff at Grandview Beach collapsed at about 3 p.m. Friday
Quote

A summer’s day at the beach turned to tragedy Friday afternoon when a bluff near San Diego, California, collapsed, killing three people and injuring at least two others.

The bluff, on Grandview Beach in Encinitas, California, which is north of San Diego, collapsed around 3 p.m. on Friday, city officials said, sharing the news on the city’s Twitter account.

The tons of sand and dirt fell on a group sitting below, burying them alive. ...


https://people.com/human-interest/3-kil ... encinitas/
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 09:19:01

Yawn. You choose to live in a location unsuitable for permanent structures to be built that is your choice, not my problem.

Several million Americans listened to real estate developers and built in stupid locations that should have been left parkland or common public lands. Enjoy it while it lasts, but don't come crying to me when its over.
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Run for the hills!

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 10:30:35

dohboi wrote:Good questions, Newf.

Meanwhile, here's a proposed map of The Netherlands in 2300:

https://www.vn.nl/wp-content/uploads/si ... nglish.jpg

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... ion=recent


Maybe I should start packing, I live near Breda, 10 miles to the west at a bit, few feet above sea level 8O

A 3 feet SLR poses a serious threat to most of the lowlands, 5 meter storm surge above NAP with a 7 meters wave runup is the limit.
This rarely happens but does happen, combined with extreme rainfall and more intense wave action for having more energy in the system.
Our pride on wonderfull Deltawerken is not grounded when looking at abrupt CC, when these plans were made after WW2/the 1953 flood, the notion that Climate could shift from one stable state to the other in a few years or decades were not known.
Our coastal defence is outdated and gives a false sense of security, the dykes protecting Zeeland by the once in a 1000 yr stormsurgegate are from the late 60's, never updated to the new norm, if the flexible gates fail, for any reason, lack of power, overrun…..most of low lying Holland will be flooded in no time. 2 third is below sea level.

So with GIS at new record melt, exponential without the buffer of arctic sea ice, Antarctic melt in overdrive......a 3 feet within decades a real option. What were the maximum SLR a year in previous meltpulses? 2 inches a year? 4 maybe? One to two decades possible, not likely but a meter by 2050 is on the table, that means no time to work on defences even if you get the energy, billions/trillions dollars/euros needed for a serious update.
A done deal, sinking ship thus our management calls all hands on deck now, royal family working on Spanish headed for South America.

Same thing with natural gas, people are supposed to switch from gas to wind/earth heat/solar within a few years to cook and heat and even drive.
Insane non realistic planning that means they TPTB are leaving ship as soon as the shit hits the fan. Studies have already been done if the impossible happens. They are prepping to bug out and save themselves, not a bad idea. :roll:

https://skepticalscience.com/Past-15000 ... -Rise.html

An accurately dated, near-continuous, history of sea level variations for the last 150,000 years has been compiled.
Comparison with ice core data reveals that major global ice volume loss, as implied by sea level rise, has followed relatively quickly after polar warming. The Greenland ice sheet responding virtually straight away (0-100 years lag time), and a 400-700 lag for the Antarctic ice sheet.
These response times are much faster than was previously commonly suspected, and implies that once sufficient polar warming is underway, future ice sheet collapse may be unavoidable.
During all episodes of major global ice loss, sea level rise has reached rates of at least 1.2 metres per century (equivalent to 12 mm per year). This is 4 times the current rate of sea level rise.

Oldy from 2012 but gives 12 mm a year, 1.2 meters per century
I think that is still conservative, we are at a tipping point, sea ice gone means a blast to GIS and there is the mechanical coupling to the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, which means they go together. 10 meters total SLR within a millennia, a meter a year on average.
How fast and furious can we go?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Past_sea_level

During deglaciation between about 19–8 ka, sea level rose at extremely high rates as the result of the rapid melting of the British-Irish Sea, Fennoscandian, Laurentide, Barents-Kara, Patagonian, Innuitian ice sheets and parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. At the onset of deglaciation about 19,000 calendar years ago, a brief, at most 500-year long, glacio-eustatic event may have contributed as much as 10 m to sea level with an average rate of about 20 mm/yr. During the rest of the early Holocene, the rate of sea level rise varied from a low of about 6.0–9.9 mm/yr to as high as 30–60 mm/yr during brief periods of accelerated sea level rise.[14][15]
Solid geological evidence, based largely upon analysis of deep cores of coral reefs, exists only for 3 major periods of accelerated sea level rise, called meltwater pulses, during the last deglaciation. They are Meltwater pulse 1A between circa 14,600 and 14,300 calendar years ago; Meltwater pulse 1B between circa 11,400 and 11,100 calendar years ago; and Meltwater pulse 1C between 8,200 and 7,600 calendar years ago. Meltwater pulse 1A was a 13.5 m rise over about 290 years centered at 14,200 calendar years ago and Meltwater pulse 1B was a 7.5 m rise over about 160 years centered at 11,000 years calendar years ago. In sharp contrast, the period between 14,300 and 11,100 calendar years ago, which includes the Younger Dryas interval, was an interval of reduced sea level rise at about 6.0–9.9 mm/yr. Meltwater pulse 1C was centered at 8,000 calendar years and produced a rise of 6.5 m in less than 140 years.[15][16][17] Such rapid rates of sea level rising during meltwater events clearly implicate major ice-loss events related to ice sheet collapse. The primary source may have been meltwater from the Antarctic ice sheet. Other studies suggest a Northern Hemisphere source for the meltwater in the Laurentide ice sheet.[17]


If small glaciers and polar ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula melt, the projected rise in sea level will be around 0.5 m (1 ft 7.7 in). Melting of the Greenland ice sheet would produce 7.2 m (23.6 ft) of sea-level rise, and melting of the Antarctic ice sheet would produce 61.1 m (200.5 ft) of sea level rise.[8] The collapse of the grounded interior reservoir of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise sea level by 5 m (16.4 ft) - 6 m (19.7 ft).[9]


That makes 15 meters SLR possible, maximum rate 7 meters in less than 140 years, a meter within two decades, WCS-worst case.
I do expect Holland to be in big trouble within the next few decades, since there is a time lag and we are only at 3 mm a year, no problem yet.
After 2030/2040? A completely different world.
The meltwater pulses before agriculture were without human drive, acceleration and methane feedback, some of the other ones, the recent geological past still had sea ice on top right? We were coming from a deep freeze ice age maximum.
Therefore, I suspect we can double or triple the worst case, a meter SLR or even two per decade, 4 to 8 inch a year.
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GIS alone, mm's a year SLR.

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 04 Aug 2019, 10:24:56

https://paulbeckwith.net/

Scroll down to sub tweeterlinks,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... 2e326a0003


Might have been bettter at the GIS thread...great pics and video at the link.

According to Ruth Mottram, a climate researcher with the Danish Meteorological Institute, the ice sheet sent 197 billion tons of water pouring into the Atlantic Ocean during July.
This is enough to raise sea levels by 0.5 millimeter, or 0.02 inches, in a one-month time frame, said Martin Stendel, a researcher with the institute.

“Like 2012, this melt event reached the highest elevations of the ice sheet, which is highly unusual,” says Thomas Mote, a professor of geography at the University of Georgia. “Both our satellite observations and the ground-based observations from Summit indicated melt on Tuesday.”
“The event itself was unusual that the warm air mass came from the east, and appears to be a part of the air mass that caused the record-breaking heat wave in Europe. Most of our extreme melt days on the Greenland ice sheet are associated with warm air masses moving from the west and south. I cannot recall an instance where we saw such extensive melt associated with an air mass coming from Northern Europe,” Mote said.
The heat, along with below-average precipitation in parts of Greenland, has even sparked wildfires along the Greenland’s non-ice-covered western fringes. Satellite images and photos taken from the ground show fires burning in treeless areas, consuming mossy wetlands known as fen that can become vulnerable to fires when they dry out. These fires can burn into peatlands, releasing greenhouse gases buried long ago through decomposition of organic matter.


Melt is not very extreme yet, for the GIS is still buffered by melting sea ice, moderating the SST to below 10 degrees Celcius.
Like your coke or whiskey on the rocks, as soon as the ice is gone, temperatures skyrocket and the GIS melt goes in overdrive, collapse in decades.
These are all snapshots at what will happen on a large scale next decade, possibly from 2022, could also be next year.
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