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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 11:25:34

Yoshua wrote:U.S oil production has peaked? Due to geology...or price?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAEnwRBXsAA ... name=large

So you're back to trying to repeal the laws of economics, such as the law of supply and demand?

Good luck with that.

The world showed in 2010-2014 that the consumer could get along just fine, both globally and in the US, with oil averaging nearly $100, inflation adjusted.

And despite all the false claims of oil being too cheap to drill, somehow the majors keep on drilling lots of it, and generating huge profits, so there's that.
(Look in the financial news, not the doomer blogs.) :roll:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39413

And of course, oil came roaring back from a major low in early 2016 and hasn't been near that low since.

So the idea that oil (WTI) is too high or too low for the global economy or producers in the $50's looks silly indeed.

As for geology, well, the Permian outlook could change meaningfully in the short term, but the infrastructure is being built out there, and I'll take the production forecasts of the experts overall, who actually are in the business over the always wrong ETP bozo.

And as experts like Russell Braziel, the author of "The Domino Effect" and others have pointed out, shale frackers are getting much more efficient over time, lowering the cost of producing shale oil. The "limits" I've seen re fracking shale oil globally thus far have had more to do with things like environmental regulations, lack of risk capital willing to try to exploit such resources with middling oil prices, etc. than that it only happens to exist in the US. :idea:

But don't worry. If we get sustained oil prices near $100 again, there will be plenty of resources which look marginal below $60 which will look much better for production near $100. That's the way economics works.

Why don't we watch the trends and wait 5 months or preferably 5 years and see what the global production of oil is as a trend, instead of claiming every tiny downward wiggle in a chart is a "crash" or a "peak", constantly?

Or is piling up a big stack of bad predictions a good thing for doomers?

Over the next few decades (slowly at first), lack of oil for transport demand due to electric transportation is likely to be a FAR bigger impact on needed supply than "peak oil".

The global demand for petrochemicals is still projected to increase significantly, regardless of what happens in transport -- so it's not like the demand for oil is going to be obliterated any time soon, regardless. With all the moving parts, I still think oil prices will be as hard to forecast as ever.

Regardless, no doom required to try and analyze the various components of the oil supply / demand puzzle.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby marmico » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 11:37:49

Where is this peak in US tight oil production?

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 14:08:59

If U.S shale oil production is still rising, then the decline comes from other production. The last dipp is probably caused by oil production shut ins in the GOM due to the storm.

And no, the world wasn't doing fine with oil prices at USD 100.

Remember Arab Spring as people revolted against rising fuel and food prices?

Remember the Euro crisis? The Eurozone imports 95 percent of its crude. The ECB had to pump in 4 Trillion euros and lower the rates to zero to save the economy, the banks and governments.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 14:21:50

Where is this peak in US tight oil production?


US Shale: Peak Oil Finally Arrives
Image

Well - you could try the first article on the front page of PO News?

The second place you could look would be under your bed. Beware of the unfinished TV diner you left there last week. It has started to grow hair!

The third place is the EIA. US production has not grown in 3 months!!
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm

If none of the above work for you; go back to your Ouija Board.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby tire » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 15:02:31

shortonoil wrote:US Shale: Peak Oil Finally Arrives


Can you imagine? And when oil prices finally rise, your peak will be surpassed in a jiffy.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 17:42:55

Can you imagine? And when oil prices finally rise, your peak will be surpassed in a jiffy.


Iran just announced that it is militarily taking over the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran thinks it can shut off Europe’s oil supply they have rocks in their heads. We should know by morning. Your "peak" will be accompanied by WW III. All of Europe and North America will move to stop them. Iran is moving before the US has its ship based laser defense systems operational. This one has KGB stamped all over it.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 18:04:51

Yoshua wrote:the world wasn't doing fine with oil prices at USD 100.


You can point to unrest somewhere in the globe regardless of oil prices. In the first world, the economy was improving with oil as USD 100.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby marmico » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 18:50:13

The IMF reports that the world economy has been growing 3%-4% per year since the 2009 trough no matter the price of oil.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Tuike » Wed 24 Jul 2019, 08:36:42

shortonoil wrote:Iran just announced that it is militarily taking over the Strait of Hormuz.

Link??
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 24 Jul 2019, 10:03:09

Link??


Iran Announces Military Will "Secure" Contested Strait Of Hormuz
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... ait-hormuz

Hopefully it doesn't lead to a let's roll! moment at the White House, where super-hawk national security adviser John Bolton has no doubt been itching for escalation: moments ago Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister announced military forces will "secure" the Strait of Hormuz.


This also popped up on Reuters, and in a WaPo article yesterday. For some reason we aren't hearing a thing about it today?? If the Iranians backed down the press would be all over it! If Washington is getting cold feet we probably wouldn't. Either way the price of oil is on the line, and the future of the entire industry is with it.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 24 Jul 2019, 10:57:56

U.S crude production falls 1 mmbp below the peak.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAP3PdDW4AA ... ame=medium
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 24 Jul 2019, 11:39:46

U.S crude production falls 1 mmbp below the peak.



Of course, this week, they will blame it on the storm in the Gulf; next week climate change, the week after that on a weak European economy, etc. In fact, US production has not increased since 02/15 when it originally hit 12 mb/d. It has been going up and down from there ever since. Shale can not overcome last year's legacy decline. It is running out of drilling rigs, it is running out of high production wells, and it is running out of money. Checkmate.

Of course when the US has Peaked, so has the entire world.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 24 Jul 2019, 11:55:53

So you're back to trying to repeal the laws of economics, such as the law of supply and demand?

Good luck with that.

The world showed in 2010-2014 that the consumer could get along just fine, both globally and in the US, with oil averaging nearly $100, inflation adjusted.


Stacking up $64.4 trillion in additional debt is getting alone "just fine"?

Still off your meds? Maybe a brain tumor?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 24 Jul 2019, 14:35:39

U.S crude production down 1 mmbpd.
U.S crude inventories down 10 million barrels.

...and the WTI is falling...

The algos are confused?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 24 Jul 2019, 15:01:03

shortonoil wrote:
So you're back to trying to repeal the laws of economics, such as the law of supply and demand?

Good luck with that.

The world showed in 2010-2014 that the consumer could get along just fine, both globally and in the US, with oil averaging nearly $100, inflation adjusted.


Stacking up $64.4 trillion in additional debt is getting alone "just fine"?

Still off your meds? Maybe a brain tumor?

And of course you ignore any positive things like assets, earnings, GDP, etc. unless you think it suits your agenda.

Speaking of brain tumors, given the body of your posts and your ETP paper, you accusing anyone else of having mental problems is hilarious.

But do deflect and prattle on when caught out in having a problem with facts or rationality as usual -- it's all you have.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Cog » Wed 24 Jul 2019, 15:21:26

And when WTI price goes up next week, then it will be manipulation since the ETP'ers can never be wrong. Right?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 24 Jul 2019, 16:44:49

And of course you ignore any positive things like assets, earnings, GDP, etc. unless you think it suits your agenda.


GDP, the same world GDP that now has a DEBT/GDP ratio of 380%.
Do you do understand that debt is the % of assets which are secured by those assets. When all of the assets are security for debt, you are by definition bankrupt!

Most likely a brain tumor? It would take a truck load of Prozac to do that to a human brain.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby frankthetank » Wed 24 Jul 2019, 21:38:50

Yoshua-

Maybe windows 10 was doing updates and they have to wait to punch new digits in the magic computer box.
lawns should be outlawed.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 25 Jul 2019, 00:57:40

Yoshua wrote:If U.S shale oil production is still rising, then the decline comes from other production. The last dipp is probably caused by oil production shut ins in the GOM due to the storm.

And no, the world wasn't doing fine with oil prices at USD 100.

Remember Arab Spring as people revolted against rising fuel and food prices?

Remember the Euro crisis? The Eurozone imports 95 percent of its crude. The ECB had to pump in 4 Trillion euros and lower the rates to zero to save the economy, the banks and governments.

Economically, it was doing just fine overall. Look at a global GDP chart.

Pointing to every single incident anywhere and shrieking "peak oil problems" doesn't make it so.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 25 Jul 2019, 01:02:03

shortonoil wrote:
Link??


Iran Announces Military Will "Secure" Contested Strait Of Hormuz
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... ait-hormuz

Hopefully it doesn't lead to a let's roll! moment at the White House, where super-hawk national security adviser John Bolton has no doubt been itching for escalation: moments ago Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister announced military forces will "secure" the Strait of Hormuz.


This also popped up on Reuters, and in a WaPo article yesterday. For some reason we aren't hearing a thing about it today?? If the Iranians backed down the press would be all over it! If Washington is getting cold feet we probably wouldn't. Either way the price of oil is on the line, and the future of the entire industry is with it.

Well, if oil suddenly soars to $200 or $300 because Iran actually "secures" the Strait of Hormuz, be sure and get back to us.

Meanwhile, in the real world, given what oil futures are doing, the zerohedge scaremongering is, as usual, not so credible. But it gives you something negative to quote, of course.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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