Yoshua wrote:U.S oil production has peaked? Due to geology...or price?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAEnwRBXsAA ... name=large
So you're back to trying to repeal the laws of economics, such as the law of supply and demand?
Good luck with that.
The world showed in 2010-2014 that the consumer could get along just fine, both globally and in the US, with oil averaging nearly $100, inflation adjusted.
And despite all the false claims of oil being too cheap to drill, somehow the majors keep on drilling lots of it, and generating huge profits, so there's that.
(Look in the financial news, not the doomer blogs.)
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39413
And of course, oil came roaring back from a major low in early 2016 and hasn't been near that low since.
So the idea that oil (WTI) is too high or too low for the global economy or producers in the $50's looks silly indeed.
As for geology, well, the Permian outlook could change meaningfully in the short term, but the infrastructure is being built out there, and I'll take the production forecasts of the experts overall, who actually are in the business over the always wrong ETP bozo.
And as experts like Russell Braziel, the author of "The Domino Effect" and others have pointed out, shale frackers are getting much more efficient over time, lowering the cost of producing shale oil. The "limits" I've seen re fracking shale oil globally thus far have had more to do with things like environmental regulations, lack of risk capital willing to try to exploit such resources with middling oil prices, etc. than that it only happens to exist in the US.
But don't worry. If we get sustained oil prices near $100 again, there will be plenty of resources which look marginal below $60 which will look much better for production near $100. That's the way economics works.
Why don't we watch the trends and wait 5 months or preferably 5 years and see what the global production of oil is as a trend, instead of claiming every tiny downward wiggle in a chart is a "crash" or a "peak", constantly?
Or is piling up a big stack of bad predictions a good thing for doomers?
Over the next few decades (slowly at first), lack of oil for transport demand due to electric transportation is likely to be a FAR bigger impact on needed supply than "peak oil".
The global demand for petrochemicals is still projected to increase significantly, regardless of what happens in transport -- so it's not like the demand for oil is going to be obliterated any time soon, regardless. With all the moving parts, I still think oil prices will be as hard to forecast as ever.
Regardless, no doom required to try and analyze the various components of the oil supply / demand puzzle.
