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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 19:41:05

Yoshua wrote:As the net energy from fossil fuel production declines and economies start to turn into Venezuela, Syria and Yemen...we will probably have incidents like Chernobyl again.


So now it is net energies fault that Venezuela decided not to invest in maintaining production, Syria thought killing off chunks of their own population would NEVER cause the resulting civil war, and Yemen's civil war were the result of net energy declines. And because net energy decline caused 1) oil asshattery, 2) civil war and 3) civil war, this must lead to Chernobyls? Caused by a safety test at a nuclear reactor just weeks before the price crash of oil in 1986? Was that caused by declining net energy too?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 21:48:15

Yoshua's post proves the old adage:

"to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail."

Hence:

"to a man hooked on ETP theory, everything that happens looks like it's due to net energy declines."

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby tita » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 05:46:31

I bet that even if the WTI or Brent benchmark price of oil goes higher than $140, the ETP crowd will find a way that their "theory" is still valid...

This is looking a lot like the "technical analysis" of stock prices, which has some valid point for short term movements but makes absolutely no sense when it is used for predictions over the long term.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 08:01:53

"to a man hooked on ETP theory, everything that happens looks like it's due to net energy declines."


Only the most incredibly ignorant of Neanderthals do not understand the the universe is composed of matter and energy. If you somehow manage to find your way back to your cave, do the the world a favor and stay there. Maybe the baboons and orangutans have the patience to teach you how to bang the rocks together. With the intellectual capabilities of an oyster you may find that fun, and challenging?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 08:11:30

...that moment when you unhide someone and are instantly reminded why you're not reading his posts...

Image

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 08:25:26

I bet that even if the WTI or Brent benchmark price of oil goes higher than $140, the ETP crowd will find a way that their "theory" is still valid...


Your are slightly confused. What is referred to here as the MAP, which it is actually the Maximum Affordable Function (MAF), has failed because the world's monetary system is failing. The MAP is not the Etp function. When oil hits $140 bend over, and practice kissing your butt good bye; because the lights just went out.

The value of the $ has disconnected from petroleum; the world's economy is now in the hands of magical elves that live in a crystal palace with a printing press, and an infinite supply of paper. This is not likely to work out very well.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 08:33:37

...that moment when you unhide someone and are instantly reminded why you're not reading his posts...


Is the the moment when Barney Rubble's brother comes to the rescue? UhGG!
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 12:19:10

shortonoil wrote:
"to a man hooked on ETP theory, everything that happens looks like it's due to net energy declines."


Only the most incredibly ignorant of Neanderthals do not understand the the universe is composed of matter and energy. If you somehow manage to find your way back to your cave, do the the world a favor and stay there. Maybe the baboons and orangutans have the patience to teach you how to bang the rocks together. With the intellectual capabilities of an oyster you may find that fun, and challenging?

Typical of your posts. The ranting of a child, devoid of meaning.

And this is supposed to impress anyone? Or convince them you have the first clue what you are talking about?

First, we don't know what "dark matter" and "dark energy" even ARE. All we know is that we realize we don't know what a HUGE proportion of the universe is, so we've given them "placeholder" names. Neal DeGrasse Tyson has said repeatedly in interviews that we should call them something like "Fred and Wilma" or "We don't have a clue", to be honest how little we really know about that situation.

But even if the universe is composed entirely of matter and energy (and whatever accounts for space-time, dimensionality, etc), SO WHAT? That doesn't make your mess of a "theory", built on blatant errors correct. Nor does it make your predictions remotely correct.

Look in a mirror. Go back to school. Start over. And start making sense.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Cog » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 12:28:54

What is funny is the ETP adherents were predicting the price of oil going to zero and since it has not, then they claim the price of oil is now irrelevant. It wasn't irrelevant when they made their predictions a year or so ago. Shorty even lost a bet over it and promptly welched, No big surprise there either.

Anything to change the narrative to keep this flawed theory alive and deny reality.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 12:43:22

Cog wrote:What is funny is the ETP adherents were predicting the price of oil going to zero and since it has not, then they claim the price of oil is now irrelevant. It wasn't irrelevant when they made their predictions a year or so ago. Shorty even lost a bet over it and promptly welched, No big surprise there either.

Anything to change the narrative to keep this flawed theory alive and deny reality.

True, and the proof that Shorty's ramblings are indeed irrelevant, whether he admits it or not. He can't defend his theory. He can't defend his wrong predictions so he makes excuses and tries to move the bar. He can't defend his errors when they're pointed out, so he resorts to name calling of the primary school level.

Not exactly "good science".

But of course, everyone who doesn't believe his theories and bad predictions is a moron. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 12:44:42

“The number of new cars sold worldwide fell 6.6% in the first half.”

The global economy is slowing down. Energy prices are too high? The economy is energy starved due to falling EROEI?

The global central banks are moving towards a synchronized easing again. Maybe they can save the global economy again...and why not raise the oil price to USD 140...or maybe not...
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 13:04:16

Yoshua wrote:“The number of new cars sold worldwide fell 6.6% in the first half.”

The global economy is slowing down. Energy prices are too high? The economy is energy starved due to falling EROEI?

The global central banks are moving towards a synchronized easing again. Maybe they can save the global economy again...and why not raise the oil price to USD 140...or maybe not...

So if China and the US aren't setting new record highs for cars sold each and every year, it's economic doom? I don't think so. Have you ever looked at charts of various markets over time? Big hint: They tend to be quite volatile. For someone who is frequently making claims about "technicals", you'd think you'd know this. :roll:

In the US anyway, car sales got ahead of themselves. Just look at all the car loans which the doomers love to whine about. Some slow-down in car sales, letting the debt be digested a bit is a good thing. Not that those lacking any economic perspective would understand, let alone admit that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 19 Jul 2019, 13:07:26

“The number of new cars sold worldwide fell 6.6% in the first half.”

The global economy is slowing down. Energy prices are too high? The economy is energy starved due to falling EROEI?

The global central banks are moving towards a synchronized easing again. Maybe they can save the global economy again...and why not raise the oil price to USD 140...or maybe not..


A 6.6% decline in the sales of a primary capital item used to be called a depression. It is now called a failure of the central banks? JPM is saying that all 12 of the world's central banks will be cutting rates in the next few months. And - Yes, energy prices are too high. The world's economy can not recover. There is an almost perfect 58 year, mathematical correlation between petroleum's deliverable energy, and world debt formation. There can be no doubt about what is happening. We are in the last stage of the oil age, and if we don't acknowledge it very soon the modern world will be back to pounding the rocks together. It is a tragedy that so many will have to parish before a worn out old paradigm gets retired. Like Kuhn so eloquently states in his "Structure of Scientific Revolutions"*, paradigms die hard. As Kuhn notes paradigms are never discarded until there is an acute crisis. As he states: "They will devise numerous articulations and ad hoc modifications to their theories in order to eliminate any apparent conflict."

When the magnitude of petroleum's impact on modern society, and the vast amount of wealth it represents is taken into consideration, it is likely that the crisis will involve the death of billions before this paradigm is discarded. It will be so sad when some future generation finally realizes that it all could have been so easily avoided! They will curse us for our folly!

*The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, by Thomas S. Kuhn. ISBN-13: 978-0-226-45807-6
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Cog » Fri 19 Jul 2019, 14:13:24

When you going to pay off your wager shorty? Hopefully before Armageddon occurs.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 19 Jul 2019, 15:05:55

Something Just Broke In China As Repo Rate Soars To 1,000% Overnight

As a result, funding among China’s financial institutions has become clogged, in some cases to the point of paralysis, which has already caused borrowing costs to spike for brokerages and smaller banks. All this could mean even higher default rates one year after China reported the highest amount of bonds defaults in modern history.



was in the aftermath of brokerage Sealand Securities’ initial refusal to pay out on a repo-like agreement in late 2016, when the Fed was in tightening mode. As the WSJ's Nathaniel Taplin writes, "a dovish Fed gives China’s central bank more room to cushion any further money-market ructions with ample liquidity without worrying too much about destabilizing capital outflows."


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... -overnight

Now that it is known that the FED is going to cut ½ point, The stock market goes up, and oil comes down. Declining interest rates will drive the price of oil down until they start to go out of business. The first big slice of producers will be removed at around $35, or, WAG, at 1% on the Ten Year. The US is now holding the "oil" card.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 19 Jul 2019, 15:11:24

shortonoil wrote:Now that it is known that the FED is going to cut ½ point, The stock market goes up, and oil comes down. Declining interest rates will drive the price of oil down until they start to go out of business. The first big slice of producers will be removed at around $35, or, WAG, at 1% on the Ten Year. The US is now holding the "oil" card.

Ah, shorty and zh predicting false disasters at least 5000% as often as they occur.

Who would have thought it? :shock:

By the way, just because some folks think the fed MIGHT cut by half a point (others expecting a quarter or no cut in July), doesn't mean that will happen, whatever your random, uneducated, non-credible blather might say.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Cog » Sat 20 Jul 2019, 06:31:40

Shorty knows a guy who knows the cousin of a buddy who works at the FED. He is connected man. Just believe it.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 03:09:49

U.S oil production has peaked? Due to geology...or price?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAEnwRBXsAA ... name=large
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 10:39:11

U.S oil production has peaked? Due to geology...or price?


That is what we posted here in December '18. The legacy decline from existing wells is greater than the new oil which could be brought online. We projected that Peak would occur in March '19. As increases in US Shale production have been the only reason that the world has not Peaked since 2007, the world has now Peaked.

This can be confirmed from the energy equations as laid out in the Etp Model, and its almost perfect correlation to world debt formation. The result will be a massive credit crisis that will form in the foreseeable future. Expectations that Central Banks can manipulate the economy into perpetual prosperity will soon be cast aside as nothing more than the myth they have always been.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 11:12:54

Only at Wolfcamp basin the decline rate for 2019 is estimated to be 600.000 barrels per day of production.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/upl ... olfcam.jpg
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