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Arctic sea ice 2019

Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 12:38:34

Newfie wrote:Interesting article about 4°C temp change in Svarlbad.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... n-anywhere


Okay someone needs to explain to politicians that Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not an energy source. Blithely saying you will build a 'hydrogen power station' because the only exhaust is water vapor completely ignores the fact that you have to manufacture the hydrogen somehow before you can burn it. There are simple and complex ways to manufacturing hydrogen but all of them have one thing in common, the energy you put in to making the hydrogen is more than the energy you get out of burning the hydrogen you made.
In summer, the solar potential of Svalbard is greater than Oslo or London, because it is sunny 24 hours a day. In the winter, wind can meet a portion of the demand, but it cannot be relied on to keep homes warm. To fill the gap, the town has reached an agreement with the Norwegian government to build a hydrogen power plant, which would generate clean electricity, producing only water as a byproduct. “We can pave the way for the world and provide know-how for Norway,” Olsen says. The council leader wants Svalbard to be carbon-neutral within 10 years – an ambitious target, but one the planet needs to follow within a couple of decades if global temperature rises are to be kept within 1.5C. “It takes time. It’s not just changing power lines, it’s changing an entire system. It’d be unique in the world.”
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby radon1 » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 13:25:42

Tanada wrote:, the energy you put in to making the hydrogen is more than the energy you get out of burning the hydrogen you made.


True, but it doesn't matter if the have excess sun energy capacity in summer. They can bring over this excess capacity to winter in the form of hydrogen, even though at a loss.
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BOE

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 04:26:17

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_7OfhrbAPY

Paul Beckwith
Gepubliceerd op 5 jul. 2019
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Blue Ocean Zero (BO-0; first Sept with essentially zero Arctic sea ice) is ever more likely each year. I chat on when it will occur + dire consequences we can expect. BO+2 years will have 3 months ice-free (Aug-Sept-Oct); BO+6 extends to July and Nov; BO+9 will be ice-free year round. Greenland, alone and exposed, will shed ice like crazy (greatly increasing sea-level rise); the cold centroid will shift from the North Pole to be over Greenland. Jet streams can become quasi-stationary, only shifting with the seasons. Where will we live to avoid the worst; how will we grow food?


Arctic monsoons with the seasons…….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_QtVN-BbJw

If jet streams become quasi-stationary sometime after Blue Ocean Zero, as I contemplated last video, what happens? Living under a trough will almost be stormy and raining; while living under a ridge you will have long duration heatwaves and drought. Neither situation makes it easy to grow food; how will we feed ourselves? Maybe the best place to live would be right under the Rossby wave, in the transition zone. Not at the wave peak, which has extended right up to the North Pole, or at the trough bottom, which has crossed the equator, but perhaps in regions where the wave moves nearly north-south or south-north?

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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 15:17:22

https://thinkprogress.org/arctic-death- ... 650acea99/

Arctic death spiral speeds up sixfold, driving coastal permafrost collapse
The Arctic just saw its hottest May on record.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dissident » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 22:25:49

radon1 wrote:
Tanada wrote:, the energy you put in to making the hydrogen is more than the energy you get out of burning the hydrogen you made.


True, but it doesn't matter if the have excess sun energy capacity in summer. They can bring over this excess capacity to winter in the form of hydrogen, even though at a loss.


That is a key point. But we now have catalytic processes that can greatly reduce the standard electrolysis cost of H2 formation from H2O.

Also, H2 is one of the worst forms of fuel you can imagine. It leaks like there is no tomorrow through even expensive tanks and valves. It makes vastly more sense to create NH3 as a fuel and then burn it into N2 and H2O in fuel cells. Fuel cells enable N2 as a waste product instead of NOx, which is a greenhouse gas and a pollutant.

https://www.ammoniaenergy.org/ammonia-f ... re-review/
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This is getting serious

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 05:54:23

Bit of a read but very interesting, another MOAB, the setting of a first BOE....bbbbrrrrr

https://www.brooklynmuseum.org/opencoll ... jects/4511

In this parable, a rich man upon his death is sent to hell for ignoring the needs of a certain beggar named Lazarus (a character distinct from the man Jesus later resurrects), who had pleaded at his door for scraps and subsequently died. Now, as the rich man beseeches Abraham for relief from his sufferings, the Old Testament patriarch castigates him for his greed and his lack of charity during his lifetime.
Here Tissot imaginatively creates a powerful image of the rich man’s descent into a smoky and shadowy netherworld, while the beggar Lazarus, now protected by the Old Testament patriarch, sits on Abraham’s shoulder.

https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/
In recent years, the Arctic has dodged bullets and cannonballs. It looks like this year, it may have to dodge a nuclear bomb.


To quote Céline Dijon*: This is getting serious.
With a total drop of 7066 km3 for June 2019, this was only the second time - after 2012 - that the 7000 km3-mark had been breached. It was just enough to squeeze past 2017 and take the lead in the rankings, while leaving all other years - except for 2012 - in the dust. For instance, the difference with 2008 has grown to 5395 km3, which amounts to a decrease of 30% in just a little over 10 years. The difference with 2016 (member of the 'second lowest minimum' triumvirate, together with 2007 and 2011) went from 208 to 1384 km3. But 2012 is now hot on 2019's tail, only 248 km3 behind, while 2017 is still second with just 108 km3 more volume than 2019 (the difference was 2460 km3 in 2017's favour at the end of January).


But I want to start off with something else. Almost every melting season is marked by some spectacular event nowadays. From the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012, the huge cracking event of February 2013, the possibility to sail beyond 85N in September 2014, to the almost circumnavigation of Greenland in August last year. This year, another event has really stood out so far.
Every melting season, the entire North American coast clears of ice at some point, making it possible to sail from Bering Strait to M'Clure Strait (western exit/entrance of the Northwest Passage central route). Back in 2016, there was a chance of this happening record early, but it didn't pan out. This year it did, four weeks earlier than any other year in the Concentration Maps section of the ASIG. The event was reported by Rick Thoman (ACCAP) and Lars Kaleschke (University of Hamburg), both providing some great graphs and animations (see here).
Here's an animation of Uni Bremen Sea Ice Concentration maps showing how it all came about (we even had a great poll on the ASIF to speculate about the date when there would be open water all the way):


But just one event does not a record melting season make. What does make a record melting season, is melting momentum. Here follows a barrage of maps and graphs, with short commentary, to give you an idea of how the 2019 melting season stacks up so far (click on the images for larger versions).
We'll have a quick look at May first. May was quite sunny, but at this time of year, clear skies don't contribute as much to melting momentum as one would think. The Sun isn't high in the sky yet, the ice surface is quite white and thus reflective, and temperatures are still relatively low (even if May 2019 was warmest/non-coldest on record for Arctic SAT). In fact, it's cloudy, moist conditions that affect the ice first through melt onset, causing the snow layer on the ice to melt. This then refreezes, but is easier to melt later on, creating the first melt ponds.
The image below shows melt pond fraction for May 2012, 2017, 2018 and this year. These maps are generated by a model that has been developed by David Schröder and other scientists from the University of Reading, and have been a huge help over the years in determining melting momentum:

When it comes to air temperatures, 2019 is blowing all the other years out of the water. That relentless heat dome over the Siberian side of the Arctic has simply been merciless, and I would be mightily surprised if June 2019 doesn't turn out to be the warmest on record as well (after May). As for SLP, the other years may show more of a classic Arctic dipole (high pressure over the American side of the Arctic, low pressure over Siberia), but 2019's high pressure area is vast, and coupled with relatively low pressure over the Kara Sea, there's a steep pressure gradient, causing strong winds that a) pull all that warm air over the ice, and b) push the ice towards the North Pole, leaving open water in its wake. This is what we Arctic amateur observers like to call the Laptev Bite.

We can safely say that 2019 is in the process of building up enough melting momentum to keep it in the game. In fact, I would dare say that it's going to take some really cold and cloudy weather during July and August to keep 2019 out of the top 3. Because other measures also provide evidence that this melting season is a serious contender.
Take for instance, Albedo Warming Potential, that is closely monitored on the CryosphereComputing website (run by Nico Sun, also known as Tealight on the ASIF). It shows how much heat can potentially be soaked up by open water under clear skies. The upper graph shows the daily anomaly, where 2019 is close to melting momentum champion 2012. The graph below it shows accumulated AWP anomaly, and here 2019 is leading at the moment:

And then, of course, there is SST (sea surface temperature). Let's not forget about SST. Here's a comparison, showing DMI SST anomaly distribution maps around this date, for 2012, 2016, 2018 and 2019. This year is basically leading everywhere, except on the Atlantic front (where PIOMAS says the thickest ice is, relative to other years). Look at all of that heat within the nascent Laptev Bite, and also note how in other years there was still ice along the Alaskan coast. There is none there this year, which means ocean currents can more easily transport heat from the Bering Strait towards the western Beaufort (where multi-year ice goes to die nowadays):

The last thing we can do, is have a look at the weather forecast and get an idea of what the first quarter of July has in store. Unfortunately, the weather is not letting up. What we see below in the ECMWF forecast for the coming 6 days (via Tropical Tidbits), is a dipole, albeit not the classic set-up. The good news is that the Laptev Bite may slow down a bit, but the dispersed ice in the Beaufort Sea is going to be pushed back towards the pole, and a tight cluster of isobars on the Atlantic side indicate strong winds that will take care of the sea ice in the Kara Sea, and push more ice towards the Atlantic
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 07:52:12

This has been a stellar year for observing ice bergs in Newfoundland. I liken it to a frozen river breaking up in spring.

But it sure was a PITA trying to get through.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 09:49:56

Thanks for that, wf. Neven is a gem. And interesting about the iceberg observations. So lots of loss from Greenland and transport down the coast, I guess.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 13 Jul 2019, 21:52:38

Climate Chaos is Coming
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 13 Jul 2019, 22:02:31

Thanks, Az. Yeah, we're testing a new record low this year. I imagine that the huge spike in Arctic fires (see my post in the wildfire thread) will have an effect on the ice albedo and melt rates, but I haven't seen any figures on that.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Azothius » Sun 14 Jul 2019, 06:36:16

Yes, I read that, but had not considered the possible effect on the melt from the smoke from the wild fires. Shaping up to be an interesting year...
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Azothius » Sun 14 Jul 2019, 10:15:09

Arctic Weather, etc


https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... l#lastPost

GFS showing temperature anomalies falling from +1 to 0.1 degrees celsius over the next week.
Intially
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
- the CAA & Baffin Bay mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly cool.
- Alaska and Western Siberian warm,
- Central Siberia cool.
But as the days go by all Siberia and Alaska cools down.

Over the next 5, or even 10, days it looks like a fairly significant low sits over the central Arctic Ocean north of Central / Eastern Siberia and elsewhere a high sits in the North Atlantic and another high over Greenland. The strongish anticlockwise winds matching but opposite to the normal clockwise movement of the Beaufort Gyre are maintained, starting as northerly winds from the CAA and the North Greenland coast. Strong winds and rain also from the South up Baffin Bay into the CAA at least for the first few days.

What all this means for melt is.... ?
Is this weather pattern there for the long-term?

A cliff or not a cliff** See below
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Overall, Area losses in July to date above average. Being a five-day trailing average, higher than average area loss will continue for 2-3 days at least.

It looks like Fram export has stalled, with most area losses in the arc from the ESS along the Russian shore and down to the Barents. The CAA is showing signs of melt strongly increasing.

It is definitely a steep downward slope

However, the ESS is not a slope, or a cliff. It is a yawning abyss,





another poster said:

With large area losses and small extent drops, this can only mean bad news for the ice. Tightly packed ice survives longer than dispersed floes.
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Guesstimate

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 20 Jul 2019, 07:00:35

Looking at the sea ice:
Image
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

I think we should be happy to have sea ice left above 80 degrees NL, the circumference of the earth at 80 degrees latitude? roughly 4342 miles.
That gives a surface of 1500271 sq miles. Cut Northernmost tip of Greenland, Ellsmere and the gaps between Spitsbergen/Franz Jozef and Siberian Islands, you end up with a possible rectangle of 691 by 1382 which gives 954962 sq miles. Still ice down the Fram and some inbetween the Canadian Archipel. Hudson Bay free of ice.

That would be our first BOE, just under a million right? Or were that sq km?

I would put my money on a million and a half, but possible BOE if a million is the limit.
Last edited by Tanada on Sat 20 Jul 2019, 20:01:33, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken image
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Collapse, apocalypse now.

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 21 Jul 2019, 04:31:26

Thanks Tanada, who knows I am to learn how to use spellcheck and pics on this wonderfull board....someday. :roll:

We at our lowlands are headed for 40 plus Celcius temperatures next week, absolute max temp ever recorded were 38.6 just after WW2 I think, nope..1944 at Warnsveld. Now Saharan heat is likely to penetrate all the way to the ESAS, the final nail of the coffin, the death of the arctic sea ice. We might already be in record low early next month, weather cannot make up for it anymore, looks like there is just too much energy in the system too prevent collapse.
Thank God there is still ice left so SST will not completely spike out of control, above 10 degrees all the way up to 20.

Amazing that the arctic ocean gets uncovered as the global power structure gets laid bare, for all to see.
Light to dark and dark to light.
This is a twin world, that must be the reason, why? Nobody knows, just the way things are.
Anyway, my wife wants me to see a shrink and take medicine….LOL. :roll:
I hope this guy has a strong heart, it is not easy to accept the full scope of what happened, is happening and what will happen, our collective predicament :oops: :evil: :cry:
I am betting on a million now, first BOE late september.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 889,72.783

https://neven1.typepad.com/

New Neven update.
Last week, I opened a special thread over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum to compare 2012 and 2019, because basically, that's what it comes down to at this point. In the thread, people post data, maps, graphs and satellite images to get an idea of how this year matches up with 2012. Towards the end of the month, I hope to use some of that material to provide a summary, before heading into the final phase of the melting season.
Today, one ASIF commenter called Comradez posted a YouTube video in which he compares 2012 and 2019 satellite images of one part of the Arctic (the intersection between the Beaufort Sea and Central Arctic Basin), which is exactly what I would hope to see when opening the thread. Here it is:

https://youtu.be/Dda9agEL7Is
A couple of days ago, I saw this video on the broader implications of ice loss around the world. It's from one of my favourite alternative news channel called The Real News Network (highly recommended):
That's it for now. More to come towards the end of the month. We won't know whether the 2019 melting season will result in a new record low minimum, but we'll probably know whether it's still possible or not.

https://youtu.be/uiV-46FUOeI

Real News Network, a world without ice...bbbrrrr :cry:
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5 lows in a row,

Unread postby Whitefang » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 13:31:55

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

Saharan heat all the way up to the Lena Delta.
It stating to really look bad for the ice up North.

Fun that the map on previous post updates but just to be sure I put a relink to the Bremen graphic data, easy to see sea ice concentrations.
Oh boy, what a summer, so many changes, so very abrupt.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 24 Jul 2019, 23:08:39

BO+9 is about 2030. So that's the end of sea ice, perhaps the end of much more, which may include us.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 27 Jul 2019, 20:53:43

Loss of Arctic's Reflective Sea Ice Will Advance Global Warming by 25 Years

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/research- ... g-25-years


Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere... this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.

The authors of the study conclude that the loss of sea ice will add a globally-averaged 0.7 watts per square meter (W/m2) of solar heating to the Earth system, 0.21 W/m2 of which has already occurred between 1979 and 2016... equivalent to an increase in CO2 concentration from 400 to 456.7 parts per million... It would advance global warming by 25 years
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 14:44:54

Watching...Sounds ominous, though when I looked at the 10 day weather forecasts for just a couple of cities in Greenland, they are below or slightly above average.

Heat Wave Heads North: Massive Week of Melting Likely in Arctic

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Heat- ... ely-Arctic


Over the next few days, meltwater will cascade across the Greenland Ice Sheet, and sea ice will dissolve into the Arctic Ocean in amounts that could be unprecedented for late July and early August. The same air mass that led to the sharpest, hottest heat wave ever recorded in northwestern Europe was channeled across Scandinavia over the weekend. Now it’s heading for even higher latitudes. While the North Pole won’t match the 108°F that Paris saw last Thursday, temperatures will be warm enough through a deep enough layer to push melting into overdrive for days, with knock-on effects that could last for weeks.


The problem isn’t just two-dimensional. Sea ice volume has also been at record-low levels for the time of year since late June, according to the PIOMAS volume-estimation model operated by the University of Washington. That’s especially worrisome because, for every unit area, less volume implies ice that’s thinner and easier to melt and disrupt.


The upper-level high at the heart of Europe’s heat wave has now migrated north into Scandinavia, where it’s joining forces with another very strong upper high over the central Arctic. At the surface, strong high pressure is centered close to the North Pole. The pattern is keeping skies largely cloud-free and allowing still-ample summer sunlight to attack the ice in tandem with the unusual warmth flowing into the Arctic from lower latitudes. "This actually primes things for more sea ice loss later (on the order of weeks)," Cavallo said. "Temperatures will be warmer, and there will be less cloud cover to make sea ice more vulnerable if a cyclone were to develop down the road."


“Thus far, this year has been generally at or below 2012’s sea ice extent,” Labe noted. “However, there is room for caution. 2012’s Great Arctic Cyclone contributed to significant declines in sea ice extent in August. It will be difficult for 2019 to continue with a similar melt momentum without an extreme weather event, which are difficult (impossible?) to predict at this range.”
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Unread postby Whitefang » Tue 30 Jul 2019, 10:29:28

Thanks for the wunderground link Az.

Looks like the whole pack, what is left of it, is moving across the pole to the ESAS. Bad news, this will accelerate the death spiral.
I'm going for less than a million sq miles, first BOE.
I hope I'm wrong on this.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 30 Jul 2019, 18:27:17

Yeah, the pack is heading toward ESAS just as sea surface temperatures have gone up quite a bit (relatively speaking).
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