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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 13:11:30

Another way that, even as some places are trying to start to do the right thing, our other harms get in the way. Any attempt at geo-engineering through intentional global dimming would, of course, make this underperformance of solar power even worse.

Study Shows Pollution Dramatically Reducing Solar Power Generation in China

https://techxplore.com/news/2019-07-pol ... china.html

An international team of researchers has found that air pollution in China is dramatically reducing the amount of power that is generated by solar cells in that country. In their paper published in the journal Nature Energy, the group describes studying data from solar observational stations over the past several decades and what they found.

... To find out how much of an impact air pollution has on solar production in China, the researchers obtained data from 119 solar measuring stations across the country going all the way back to 1960. They also collected data on black carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions for the same period as a way to make sure that any reductions in solar radiation they found came from air pollution rather than climate change.

The researchers were able to work out how much less solar radiation was reaching the ground over the years 1960 to 2015. They then compared solar radiation levels with solar energy installations and production. Doing so allowed them to see just how much less power was being produced due to air pollution. They report that in 2016, China produced 14 terawatt hours less than it could have were pollution levels the same as they were in 1960. They further report that because China is planning to triple its solar energy production by 2030, the country could be losing out on 74 TWh a year, if pollution levels hold steady. They note also that at 2016 rates, the country lost out on $1.9 billion worth of electricity that year—and that could rise to $6.7 billion by 2030.



Bart Sweerts et al. Estimation of losses in solar energy production from air pollution in China since 1960 using surface radiation data, Nature Energy (2019).

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-019-0412-4
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 10:03:46

Breaching a 'carbon threshold' could lead to mass extinction

Daniel Rothman, professor of geophysics and co-director of the Lorenz Center in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, has found that when the rate at which carbon dioxide enters the oceans pushes past a certain threshold—whether as the result of a sudden burst or a slow, steady influx—the Earth may respond with a runaway cascade of chemical feedbacks, leading to extreme ocean acidification that dramatically amplifies the effects of the original trigger....

...What does this all have to do with our modern-day climate? Today's oceans are absorbing carbon about an order of magnitude faster than the worst case in the geologic record—the end-Permian extinction. But humans have only been pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere for hundreds of years, versus the tens of thousands of years or more that it took for volcanic eruptions or other disturbances to trigger the great environmental disruptions of the past. Might the modern increase of carbon be too brief to excite a major disruption?

According to Rothman, today we are "at the precipice of excitation," and if it occurs, the resulting spike—as evidenced through ocean acidification, species die-offs, and more—is likely to be similar to past global catastrophes.

"Once we're over the threshold, how we got there may not matter," says Rothman, who is publishing his results this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Once you get over it, you're dealing with how the Earth works, and it goes on its own ride.


https://phys.org/news/2019-07-breaching ... ction.html

The Paper itself

Characteristic disruptions of an excitable carbon cycle

The history of the carbon cycle is punctuated by enigmatic transient changes in the ocean’s store of carbon. Mass extinction is always accompanied by such a disruption, but most disruptions are relatively benign. The less calamitous group exhibits a characteristic rate of change whereas greater surges accompany mass extinctions.

To better understand these observations, I formulate and analyze a mathematical model that suggests that disruptions are initiated by perturbation of a permanently stable steady state beyond a threshold. The ensuing excitation exhibits the characteristic surge of real disruptions.

In this view, the magnitude and timescale of the disruption are properties of the carbon cycle itself rather than its perturbation. Surges associated with mass extinction, however, require additional inputs from external sources such as massive volcanism. Surges are excited when CO2 enters the oceans at a flux that exceeds a threshold. The threshold depends on the duration of the injection. For injections lasting a time ti≳10,000 y in the modern carbon cycle, the threshold flux is constant; for smaller ti, the threshold scales like ti−1.

Consequently the unusually strong but geologically brief duration of modern anthropogenic oceanic CO2 uptake is roughly equivalent, in terms of its potential to excite a major disruption, to relatively weak but longer-lived perturbations associated with massive volcanism in the geologic past.


https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019 ... 1905164116
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 23:25:27

Forests (probably) take 100's of years to grow to maturity. This century, the climate is changing up the fast side of the exponential. I think this negates some of the potential positive feedbacks. For instance, the tundra should become a Boreal forest or something, but does it have time? Probably, too late, so the question should be "Did it have time to develop?"
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 09:10:55

jedrider wrote:Forests (probably) take 100's of years to grow to maturity. This century, the climate is changing up the fast side of the exponential. I think this negates some of the potential positive feedbacks. For instance, the tundra should become a Boreal forest or something, but does it have time? Probably, too late, so the question should be "Did it have time to develop?"


Yep. Slow forest growth PLUS slow soil growth. Arctic soil is thin to nonexistent. I guess if billions moved north and executed a massive "night soil" maneuver of human-waste it might help accelerate soil growth. But what are the odds of that?

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 12:05:39

asg70 wrote: Arctic soil is thin to nonexistent. I guess if billions moved north and executed a massive "night soil" maneuver of human-waste it might help accelerate soil growth. But what are the odds of that?


I get so tired of hearing this pronouncement posted over and over in doomer arguments. The truth is northern soil is as variable as you could hope for. Even worse, the vast bulk of the actual Arctic is made up of the Arctic Ocean, as a percentage of Canada, Alaska, Siberia or Scandinavia the land portion in the Arctic is not all that large.

Yes in places, especially on the Canadian Shield where massive kilometers thick ice sheet ground over the surface bulldozing the underlying soil ever thinner it is pretty sparse. But the vast reaches of Siberia, Central Alaska in the Yukon watershed and Canada in the Yukon and Mackenzie watersheds all the way south to Lake Winnipeg have very different conditions. In these places the ice never formed glaciers that moved large distances, on the contrary what ice formed in the mountains lining these watershed's the glaciers push soil into these watershed's, not out of them. The deep rich soil that underlies Illinois and Iowa does not magically stop at the border with Canada. It passes at a north west direction through Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta all the way to the mouth of the Mackenzie on the corner of Yukon Territory. All that vast lake strewn land has rich deep soils.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 15:08:02

Tanada,

Thanks for clarifying your take on that issue.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 18:31:12

The sole basis of my argument is gradualism versus abrupt change and it's relationship to feedbacks. So, it was hot at one time, geologically, not so long ago, but the Earth recovered it's Halocene balance. It's not so hot YET, but the rate is much faster than the recent geologic (ice age) record. I was just proposing one mechanism whereby balance is restored, but the rates are important as well. It's not so important, but I know that many deniers will say, see, the Earth recovered and all was well again. :-D
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 20:21:14

Another way GW is f*ing up planetary living communities and will drive future extinctions:

Early arrival of spring disrupts the mutualism between plants and pollinators


Global warming has affected the phenology of diverse organisms, such as the timing of plant flowering and leafing, animal hibernation and migration. This is particularly so in cold ecosystems, increasing the risk of disturbing mutual relationships between living organisms. It could also affect the relationship between plants and insects that carry pollen, but few studies have been conducted and the subject remains largely unknown.

The researchers examined Corydailis ambigua growing in cold-temperature forests in Hokkaido in northern Japan, and bumblebees, which collect nectar from the flowers. Usually the bloom of the flowers and emergence of the bumblebees are in sync.

They monitored the plant and insect for 19 years in a natural forest of Hokkaido, recording the timing of snowmelt, flowering and emergence of bumblebees as well as the seed-set rate. In this way, they were able to observe how the snowmelt timing and ambient temperatures affect the local phenology.

Long-term monitoring revealed that snowmelt timing dictates when Corydailis ambigua flowers. The earlier the snowmelt, the earlier the flowering. The researchers also found that bumblebees, which hibernate underground during winter, become active when soil temperatures reach 6 C. When the snowmelt is early, flowering tends to occur before the bees emerge, creating a mismatch. The wider the mismatch, the lower the seed-set rate due to insufficient pollination.



https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 071219.php
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 21:00:19

I live just past the southern most tip of the Canadian Shield proper, and I can say that it is striking that it is pretty much only trees on that part of the state (northeast third), while there is lots of rich agriculture elsewhere. So I expect much the same is true further north, though I would like to see more studies of soil depth at various locations (I've come up dry so far in my preliminary searches).

Looking into the CS on wiki, I found this, almost poetic, gem, that gave me a perspective I had not thought of before:

Mountains have deep roots and float on the denser mantle much like an iceberg at sea. As mountains erode, their roots rise and are eroded in turn. The rocks that now form the surface of the Shield were once far below the Earth's surface.


That, for me, was a 'wow' moment. Gotta love wiki sometimes!
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 13 Jul 2019, 22:34:08

Correction: in the above quote, instead of 'northeast third' I should have said 'northern two thirds.'

The eastern part is not without ag, but nothing compared to the rich soils in the southern third.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 16 Jul 2019, 10:10:39

How's the heat and smoke going for you, P? I see heat records are falling fast up there:

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2019/07 ... -rolls-on/
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 16 Jul 2019, 17:46:30

dohboi wrote:I live just past the southern most tip of the Canadian Shield proper, and I can say that it is striking that it is pretty much only trees on that part of the state (northeast third), while there is lots of rich agriculture elsewhere. So I expect much the same is true further north, though I would like to see more studies of soil depth at various locations (I've come up dry so far in my preliminary searches)

Will global warming lead to agriculture in the Arctic?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 17 Jul 2019, 09:22:48

Joshua trees facing extinction

...In the best-case scenario, major efforts to reduce heat-trapping gasses in the atmosphere would save 19 percent of the tree habitat after the year 2070. In the worst case, with no reduction in carbon emissions, the park would retain a mere 0.02 percent of its Joshua tree habitat.

The team's findings were published recently in Ecosphere. Project lead Lynn Sweet, a UCR plant ecologist, said she hopes the study inspires people to take protective environmental action. "The fate of these unusual, amazing trees is in all of our hands," she said. "Their numbers will decline, but how much depends on us."

...

They found that Joshua trees have been migrating to higher elevation parts of the park with cooler weather and more moisture in the ground. In hotter, drier areas, the adult trees aren't producing as many younger plants, and the ones they do produce aren't surviving.

Joshua trees as a species have existed since the Pleistocene era, about 2.5 million years ago, and individual trees can live up to 300 years. One of the ways adult trees survive so long is by storing large reserves of water to weather droughts.

Younger trees and seedlings aren't capable of holding reserves in this way though, and the most recent, 376-week-long drought in California left the ground in some places without enough water to support new young plants. As the climate changes, long periods of drought are likely to occur with more frequency, leading to issues with the trees like those already observed.

An additional finding of this study is that in the cooler, wetter parts of the park the biggest threat other than climate change is fire. Fewer than 10 percent of Joshua trees survive wildfires, which have been exacerbated in recent years by smog from car and industrial exhaust. The smog deposits nitrogen on the ground, which in turn feeds non-native grasses that act as kindling for wildfires.

As a partner on this project, the U.S. Park Service is using this information to mitigate fire risk by removing the invasive plants...


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 073719.htm
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 17 Jul 2019, 14:27:48

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 21 Jul 2019, 12:50:27

"Scientists alarmed by bark beetle boom"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 144507.htm

Extract: "Bark beetles are currently responsible for killing an unprecedented number of trees in forests across Europe and North America. Why the beetle populations first explode to decline naturally after a few years is largely unknown. Researchers are therefore urging to step up research into the dynamics of bark beetle populations. They believe that more needs to be done also in view of climate change."

Meanwhile: "Brazil: huge rise in Amazon destruction under Bolsonaro, figures show"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... nvironment
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dissident » Sun 21 Jul 2019, 20:09:30

dohboi wrote:"Scientists alarmed by bark beetle boom"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 144507.htm

Extract: "Bark beetles are currently responsible for killing an unprecedented number of trees in forests across Europe and North America. Why the beetle populations first explode to decline naturally after a few years is largely unknown. Researchers are therefore urging to step up research into the dynamics of bark beetle populations. They believe that more needs to be done also in view of climate change."

Meanwhile: "Brazil: huge rise in Amazon destruction under Bolsonaro, figures show"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... nvironment


Instead of the vaunted CO2 induced greening we are seeing a massive new source of CO2 from dead forests. This highlights the nature of CO2 overloading of the system. There are no "a**-saving" feedbacks of interest.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 19:07:57

From America's finest:

Roughly seven minutes following a climate disaster, ambivalence sets in and Americans forget

"The good news, however, is that in the five minutes directly after losing a loved one in a hurricane, participants were much more likely to consider reducing their carbon footprint "

https://www.theonion.com/report-average ... 1836604584

:lol: 8O :cry:
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 14:07:00

The Mathematics of Climate Change - Gresham College Lecture - Chris Budd
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4O4jK-lZrI

Sustainable Energy – without the hot air - David J.C. MacKay
https://www.withouthotair.com/synopsis10.pdf

Nothing new, but a good sysnopsis of the mathematics of the physics of climate change research.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 17:39:41

Climate change is already happening too fast...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... tudy-finds

Animals failing to adapt to speed of climate crisis, study finds

Scientists warn of ‘alarming’ lag between human-driven seasons shift and animals’ behavioural changes


The speed of climate disruption is outstripping many animals’ capacity to adapt, according to a study that warns of a growing threat to even common species such as sparrows, magpies and deer.

Scientists behind the research described the results as alarming because they showed a dangerous lag between a human-driven shift in the seasons and behavioural changes in the natural world.

Previous academic work has shown that species respond to warming temperatures by earlier timing of biological events, for example egg-laying by birds, budding of plants and flying of insects. The new meta-study, published in Nature Research, examines how effective this is in terms of reproduction and survival.

Based on 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 published studies, it found a clear lag in the majority of species studied and none could be considered safe. “The probability that none of the study species is at risk is virtually zero,” the paper notes.

The authors said hundreds of thousands of species were not covered by their study, which was weighted heavily towards birds in the northern hemisphere, but they said the problems of adaptation to climate change were likely to be even greater for other animals already deemed at risk of extinction.

Viktoriia Radchuk of the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research in Germany, said: “Personally I find the results alarming. Species attempt to adapt to changing environment, but they cannot do it at a sufficient pace to ensure that populations are viable. Climate change has caused irreversible damage to our biodiversity already, as evidenced by the findings of this study. The fact that species struggle to adapt to the current rate of climate change means we have to take action immediately in order to at least halt or decrease the rate.”
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 19:14:29

Fungi are adapting:

Research argues that deadly Candida auris "may be the first example of a new fungal disease emerging from climate change.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/07/23/beginning-new-study-warns-climate-crisis-may-have-been-pivotal-rise-drug-resistant
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