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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby katkinkate » Fri 07 Jun 2019, 22:11:54

Hi, long time no write. I would like to point out that there is significant problems before any significant sea level rise. The increase of energy into the climate system is increasing the strength and number of storm events that affect all the people living on sandy beaches. The amount of sand on a beach is a balance between the destructive, erosive force of big storm waves and the constructive, sand-depositing calmer seas. Even before any SLR there is already increasing beach erosion affecting all development on the sandy beaches from the increased number and strength of stormy seas. Erosion of sand dunes will provide an actual reclamation of land by the ocean, before SLR becomes a big factor.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 07 Jun 2019, 22:13:40

Yes, as I said, far more will be affected in the future. But Florida residence already regularly have tidal water in their streets, island nations in the Pacific are in the process of finding ways to evacuate their populations, as sea water not only swamps their homes, but also salinates their wells and fields. Maybe I should have said there are already lots of places being affected. But of course, if you're in one of those places where the sea is taking over you home or making it uninhabitable, you don't care whether you are one of hundreds or thousands or millions or billions.

Another side of the issues is that sea level rise raises the 'floor' over which sudden extreme events like hurricanes happen. We tend to think of slr as this slow thing that everyone can just gradually adjust to.

But as recent hurricanes in the US and elsewhere have shown, 'gradual' slr rather suddenly makes itself felt in quite catastrophic ways when they exacerbate extreme events (especially as these have already been exacerbated by increased moisture and energy in the system through CC).

So I would add pretty much all the places devastated by hurricane/cyclone driven sea water in the last decade or so to the tally: NYC, Houston, NOLA, PR, and all the other here and abroad.

Is that starting to look like 'lots' yet? :) :)

(And welcome back, kat!)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 07 Jun 2019, 22:45:33

But Florida residence already regularly have tidal water in their streets, island nations in the Pacific are in the process of finding ways to evacuate their populations, as sea water not only swamps their homes, but also salinates their wells and fields. Maybe I should have said there are already lots of places being affected.


as I said this is due to "relative sea level rise" which is the combination of a little bit of actual sea level rise with a lot of subsidence. There are a number of pacific islands where everyone was concerned that have not had a problem simply because they are still rising (volcanic islands do that) against the background of gradually rising sea level.

Another side of the issues is that sea level rise raises the 'floor' over which sudden extreme events like hurricanes happen. We tend to think of slr as this slow thing that everyone can just gradually adjust to.


that's just more arm waving with no numbers. As I said if you go all the way back 60 years there has only been 4 inches or so of actual sea level rise...this will do absolutely nothing to increasing storm surge, but go ahead, prove me wrong.

You keep confusing relative sea level rise with actual sea level rise. Relative sea level rise is mainly due to subsidence and/or isostatic rebound whereas actual sea level rise is a product of ground water, ice melt and thermal expansion.

So I would add pretty much all the places devastated by hurricane/cyclone driven sea water in the last decade or so to the tally: NYC, Houston, NOLA, PR, and all the other here and abroad.


It's a freaking hurricane and it brings water with it....just like it did a hundred years ago. NYC...subsiding due to all the building, Houston ...the whole Gulf Coast is subsiding...New Orleans...whole Gulf Coast is subsiding and on and on.

You want to infer all of this has something to do with climate and it doesn't.
Is that starting to look like 'lots' yet? :) :)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 08 Jun 2019, 04:56:55

Rick,

You are correct that SLR so far has been pretty minor. And folks confuse SLR with subsidence. And Dohboi used an ambiguous term when he said “lots.” There is some SLR and it is affecting some folks, if you are in that effected community then perhaps “lots” of your neighbors are effected.

Why the hell are we arguing over this? What specifically about his post got under your skin? That you feel he is overstating the SLR effect to date? That you think SLR is a hoax? Please clarify.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 08 Jun 2019, 19:21:00

Good questions, Newf.

Meanwhile, here's a proposed map of The Netherlands in 2300:

https://www.vn.nl/wp-content/uploads/si ... nglish.jpg

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... ion=recent
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 09:18:43

Here's another reminder that the ocean doesn't have to actually be covering you land for sea level rise to make it unusable/uninhabitable:

In India’s Sundarbans, communities shrink as their island sinks


...
Ocean water has contaminated much of the island’s meager freshwater supply and left 70 percent of Mousuni’s land too salty to farm, destroying the majority of its inhabitants’ livelihoods.


https://news.mongabay.com/2019/07/in-in ... and-sinks/
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 13:39:57

dohboi wrote:Here's another reminder that the ocean doesn't have to actually be covering you land for sea level rise to make it unusable/uninhabitable:

In India’s Sundarbans, communities shrink as their island sinks


...
Ocean water has contaminated much of the island’s meager freshwater supply and left 70 percent of Mousuni’s land too salty to farm, destroying the majority of its inhabitants’ livelihoods.


https://news.mongabay.com/2019/07/in-in ... and-sinks/


Florida is a peninsula surrounded on three sides by the ocean. The land is porous limestone. 21.3 million inhabitants, mostly in the southern half of the state which is drained everglades, are sucking hard on the fresh water aquifers accelerating salt water intrusion inland.

A very popular river to kayak in West Palm beach county is the Loxahatchee River. As you drift along the last 5 kilometers the shoreline is all mangroves, there are ospreys and comorants perched on the bare branches of old ancient dead patriarchs, the once majestic bald cypress trees that died when salt water intruded up the river during the past 30 years.

Florida is one of those ground zero places this century where a combination of factors will create a mass exodus...... Snowy Egrets, Roseate Spoonbills, Florida Panthers, bobcats, Wood Storks, Anhingas, Limpkins and Purple Gallinules are all waiting on the sidelines for this mass exodus to occur. They will be direct beneficiaries of this modern 21st Century RIver to Tears as humans make their way north.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 13:16:17

You are describing relatively stable conditions. Unfortunately, that is not what we are heading into.

Hurricanes will be getting ever stronger. Droughts in between these extreme rain and wind events will get ever longer and deeper.

I am sure that there will be some place that will do better than others. I am not at all sure that we can accurately guess which will be which in most cases.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 13:30:16

dohboi wrote:You are describing relatively stable conditions. Unfortunately, that is not what we are heading into.


I know what you meant by that but perhaps stop a moment and consider that 21 million Kudzu Apes living in Florida is not exactly what I would call a relatively stable condition :)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 15:51:21

Good point.

Bbbbut...aren't they all stable genius Kudzu Apes? :)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 19:49:52

Technically they are. However, even in Florida SLR is so very slow that even elderly people from NYC in wheelchairs could easily outpace it.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 22:17:27

rockdoc123 wrote:that's just more arm waving with no numbers. As I said if you go all the way back 60 years there has only been 4 inches or so of actual sea level rise...this will do absolutely nothing to increasing storm surge, but go ahead, prove me wrong.
Storms have been surging further inland along with sea level rise. And the rate of sea level rise is accelerating. The floodplain area increased further inland from 1880 to 2010. And increases yet more by 2050 and 2100:

Rising sea levels put our coasts at risk
Roughly a third of the US population—more than 100 million people—live in coastal counties. Coastal states with large areas of low-lying land, including Louisiana, Florida, North Carolina, California, and South Carolina, are particularly vulnerable to rising seas and coastal storm surges.
Image
Causes of Sea Level Rise: What the Science Tells Us

Global warming has raised global sea level about 8 inches since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating. Rising seas dramatically increase the odds of damaging floods from storm surges. A Climate Central analysis finds the odds of “century” or worse floods occurring by 2030 are on track to double or more, over widespread areas of the U.S. These increases threaten an enormous amount of damage. Across the country, nearly 5 million people live in 2.6 million homes at less than 4 feet above high tide — a level lower than the century flood line for most locations analyzed. And compounding this risk, scientists expect roughly 2 to 7 more feet of sea level rise this century — a lot depending upon how much more heat-trapping pollution humanity puts into the sky.
Surging Seas: Sea level rise analysis

Mapping Coastal Flood Risk Lags Behind Sea Level Rise

The rate of global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades, rather than increasing steadily, according to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European satellite data. This acceleration, driven mainly by increased melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100 when compared to projections that assume a constant rate of sea level rise. If the rate of ocean rise continues to change at this pace, sea level will rise 26 inches (65 centimeters) by 2100 — enough to cause significant problems for coastal cities, according to the new assessment by Nerem and colleagues from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland; CU Boulder; the University of South Florida in Tampa; and Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. The team, driven to understand and better predict Earth's response to a warming world, published their work Feb. 12 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"This is almost certainly a conservative estimate," Nerem said. "Our extrapolation assumes that sea level continues to change in the future as it has over the last 25 years. Given the large changes we are seeing in the ice sheets today, that's not likely."
New study finds sea level rise accelerating – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

rockdoc123 wrote:It's a freaking hurricane and it brings water with it....just like it did a hundred years ago. NYC...subsiding due to all the building, Houston ...the whole Gulf Coast is subsiding...New Orleans...whole Gulf Coast is subsiding and on and on.

You want to infer all of this has something to do with climate and it doesn't.
Climate change does indeed have an effect on storms and sea level rise. Sure land subsidence is a large factor as well. But that doesn't mean the sea level rise is not being driven by climate change.

Sea level is rising — and at an accelerating rate — especially along the US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico
Global average sea level rose roughly eight inches from 1880 - 2009.
The average annual rate of global sea level rise accelerated from 1993 - 2008, increasing 65 - 90 percent above the twentieth century average.

Global warming is the primary cause of current sea level rise
Human activities, such as burning coal and oil and cutting down tropical forests, have increased atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping gases and caused the planet to warm.

* Rising temperatures are warming ocean waters, which expand as the temperature increases. This thermal expansion was the main driver of global sea level rise for 75 - 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution, though its relative contribution has declined as the shrinking of land ice has accelerated.

* Land ice—glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets—is shrinking at a faster rate in response to rising temperatures, adding water to the world's oceans.

* As the rate of ice loss has accelerated, its contribution to global sea level rise has increased from a little more than half of the total increase from 1993 - 2008 to 75 - 80 percent of the total increase between 2003 - 2007.
Causes of Sea Level Rise: What the Science Tells Us
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 09:46:39

Thanks, kub.

No matter how many times we repeat it, people just don't seem to get it. GW-driven slr is not just about very gradually rising high tides. It means that mega storm, which are getting ever more mega, have a higher 'platform' from which to drive devastation ever further inland.

In a way, the best thing for getting the message across to the people in harms way would be if mega storms happened reliably a couple times a year. That way they could see and plan for the increased harms.

But in any particular location, a mega storm is not likely to hit more than once every decade or two (and recall that, in the Atlantic basin at least, storm frequency is not predicted to increase, just storm intensity and size).

So people inland end up feeling smug because they were safe from storm surge during the last mega-storm or hurricane. But by the time the next one comes along the storm is much stronger and the 'floor' from which the surge is coming is much higher. So what people thought was reliably safe, since it was still far from the incrementally rising sea level, are actually going to get suddenly and devastatingly wiped out.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 08:53:46

I'm with Guy on this. SLR will NOT be our primary concern. It may be the icing on the cake though. It is also the easiest to measure as it is not exactly a stocastic process. Here, Guy takes down the 'gradualist' interpretation of peak climate as promoted by James Hansen and, fortunately, it's a short video. Guy keeps on hammering on Habitat, Habitat. A species that destroys it's own habitat is a terminal, terminating species (my own description, though).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptZYig-wyX8
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