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Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 07:02:53

Lets pray to god the Iranians aren't stupid enough to actually attack the Lincoln or any other US Navy vessels.


Iran is not going to attack a US aircraft carrier any more than North Korea was going to attack Hawaii! But, when you have a $1 trillion a year budget to justify, eminent threats are needed to keep those congress critters voting in the right direction. Anyone who believes that Iran is a threat to the US has overlooked the MIC. Trump works for them. It's the only way he could keep his job.

Sorry Iran; Raytheon needs a little additional funding. Their new line of energy weapons are gong to be very expensive.

See "Stars and Stripes" for an update.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 09:28:39

https://gcaptain.com/tanker-attacks-cal ... -response/

Iran learned lessons from that period, which became known as the “Tanker War,” and now has many more tools at its disposal, such as mines and speed boats, to use in asymmetric warfare to send a signal, Aryan said.

“That signal is to show to the Arab states and to the United States that, despite all their military might and presence in the region, the lines of communication in the region are vulnerable, to show that vulnerability.”

The danger for Iran, if it is pursuing that strategy, is that a small incident could quickly escalate, observers say.

“This is an extremely risky strategy,” said Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “The gamble of Islamic Republic strategists … may end up provoking a war Iran can ill afford.”



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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 11:23:03

There doesn't have to be an all-out war to dissuade Iran to stop their attacks on oil tankers. We can simply do what Reagan did.....do a one-time surgical strike that degrades their ability to do these attacks and persuades the Iranians to stop.

We know exactly where the Republican guard bases are located. Destroying all their little speedboats and all their limpet mines would go a long way towards stopping all future attacks from little Iranian speedboats armed with limpet mines.

Cheers!
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby GHung » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 11:39:56

Plantagenet wrote:There doesn't have to be an all-out war to dissuade Iran to stop their attacks on oil tankers. We can simply do what Reagan did.....do a one-time surgical strike that degrades their ability to do these attacks and persuades the Iranians to stop.

We know exactly where the Republican guard bases are located. Destroying all their little speedboats and all their limpet mines would go a long way towards stopping all future attacks from little Iranian speedboats armed with limpet mines.

Cheers!


Let those who depend highly on Persian Gulf oil do that. You seem pretty gun-ho about spending US blood and treasure.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 11:42:59

Cog wrote:Trump should begin unrestricted warfare against Iranian naval assets and other military infrastructure. A land invasion and occupation is not necessary for the US to achieve its goals in the Persian Gulf.


Translation: "Can't afford an Army, or real airplanes, or tanks" without the currency collapsing.

Thats Cog's notion of "unrestricted".
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 12:17:53

We can simply do what Reagan did.


Well, no, actually you cannot. See, you have a serious problem with reality just like Cog. Look at Prudhoe Bay's production during Ronny Rayguns presidency (1981-89) compared to what it is now. The Prudhoe Bay Gas Station is now basically closed.

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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 14:10:03

Knock off the trolling, all around.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 18:44:37

StarvingLion wrote: Look at Prudhoe Bay's production during Ronny Rayguns presidency (1981-89) compared to what it is now. The Prudhoe Bay Gas Station is now basically closed.


Newfie is right. Lets try to focus on the facts here.

You are correct that oil production from Prudhoe Bay has gone down since the 1980s....but oil from other US sources has more then replaced it so that isn't much of an issue.

Lots of interesting things have happened in the US oil biz since the 1980s---the whole situation has changed in surprising ways from it was 30 years ago. One of the largest new oil fields is actually in North Dakota of all places.

The bottom line is --- if you compare US oil production from the 1980s with US oil production today, and you'll find that its much higher now.

Cheers!
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby GHung » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 23:52:53

June 19, 2019
With Iran, Trump Is in a Corner

“This is not a drill,” Joe Cirincione and Mary Kaszynski warn in a post at LobeLog: President Trump has maneuvered dangerously close to war with Iran. Among their main concerns is that he’ll be shamed into a military strike by Gulf allies who want a US war with their Persian rival; “It’s easy, they will whisper, unless, of course, the president is afraid to strike,” Cirincione and Kaszynski write.

Trump’s approach to Iran has been similar to his “Fire and Fury” strategy with North Korea, they surmise. The problem is that Iran “has called Trump’s bluff,” Seth J. Frantzman writes in The National Interest, presenting the US president with his “first real nightmare scenario.” It’s time to accept that Tump’s maximum-pressure campaign won’t produce concessions, Masoud Movahed writes in a Boston Review essay examining the US sanctions strategy. Trump may not want a war, but he has “navigated himself into a dangerous corner,” Mohaved writes, concluding that the only way for both sides to save face and deescalate is for Trump to lift sanctions and try to renegotiate the 2015 nuclear deal.

https://mailchi.mp/cnn/with-iran-trump- ... 23cce6594f

It's not that chit-talking pathological narssicists are prone to miscalculations. They generally don't think that far ahead.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 00:49:27

A bit more shooting....one notch higher on the step to war....or maybe not, depending on which spokesperson one listens to.

BBC wrote:Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) claim to have shot down a US spy drone over Iranian airspace.

State media reported the military hit a drone, which they named as a RQ-4 Global Hawk, near Kuhmobarak in Iran's southern Hormozgan province.

The US military has not confirmed if a drone was hit, but a spokesman denied its aircraft were in Iranian airspace.


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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Cog » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 03:30:34

Lifting sanctions is precisely the wrong move. It signals to Iran that they can achieve its goals using terrorism just as they have many times in the past. If anything, sanctions should be strengthened until Iran bends the knee. That and putting the Iranian navy on the bottom of the Persian Gulf. As long as it results in dead Iranian soldiers and sailors I'm down with it.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 06:09:28

Trump has attempted to deal with two very difficult situations; NK and Iran. He has done this in a bold manner and put himself at political risk by doing so. So some can make accusations that he has navigated himself into a corner, while others can argyle he is trying to bust out of a corner created by predecessors.

How will this work out? Let me think about this for about 5-8 years, then I’ll have a better idea, maybe.

Our whole ME policy set is completely fubar to my eye, hard to see consistent logic here. But it does, once again, argue for greater conservation of resources at home and disentanglement from being the world’s policeman.

We have been working on getting into this mess since at least 1960. We won’t get out quickly.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 08:19:41

At this late stage of human overshoot wishing for painless pathways full of wisdom is indulgent. At this point anything that weakens the juggernaut of consumption culture kudzu apes is welcome, including destabilizing the oil market and regional resource wars.

I welcome an increase of human stupidity since stupidity at this point seems more disruptive than wisdom and disruptions to the current global juggernaut of consuming kudzu apes is good for the planet.

I do not wish for global peace which in double speak 1984 language just means keeping everything stable so we can stay asleep in our consumption habits.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby GHung » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 09:04:03

Newfie wrote:Trump has attempted to deal with two very difficult situations; NK and Iran. He has done this in a bold manner and put himself at political risk by doing so. So some can make accusations that he has navigated himself into a corner, while others can argyle he is trying to bust out of a corner created by predecessors. ..........


..... and others can continue to give Trump far more credit than he deserves, likely because the reality of this clueless wonder is too scary for them to contemplate. Do you REALLY think this fool has any sort of grasp at all of these highly-complex geo-political issues?

As of the end of April:

.....The departments that are lacking important administrators include:

Homeland Security, The Secret Service, ICE, The Defense Department, The Air Force, FEMA, The Interior, The United Nations and the White House.

Donald Trump currently has:

– No Homeland Security Director

– No Secret Service Director

– No ICE Director

– No Secretary of Defense

– No Air Force Secretary

– No FEMA Director

– No Secretary of the Interior

– No UN Ambassador

– No White House Chief of Staff

– No clue

— Palmer Report (@PalmerReport) April 8, 2019


And absolutely no relevant experience in anything that matters. Not sure how any of you can continue to assign qualities to this man that he simply does not posses.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 10:14:04

GHung wrote: – No UN Ambassador


Kelly Craft, who had been the ambassador to Canada has been nominated to the UN Ambassador position. The story the Canadian media have is that she spent almost half her time outside of Canada and didn't enjoy meeting with other ambassadors. Given the proximity of Canada to the US and the large amount of trade between our two countries this is normally considered to be one of the more important diplomatic postings. The president will usually appoint someone who is quite competent and who will focus on the job.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby GHung » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 11:05:58

yellowcanoe wrote:
GHung wrote: – No UN Ambassador


Kelly Craft, who had been the ambassador to Canada has been nominated to the UN Ambassador position. The story the Canadian media have is that she spent almost half her time outside of Canada and didn't enjoy meeting with other ambassadors. Given the proximity of Canada to the US and the large amount of trade between our two countries this is normally considered to be one of the more important diplomatic postings. The president will usually appoint someone who is quite competent and who will focus on the job.


Correction: Previous Presidents usually appointed someone who was quite competent and would focus on the job. They generally weren't threatened by people who were more competent and experienced at certain jobs than they were. That's one of the keys to good leadership.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 13:49:10

Trump should've done a limited strike on Iran after they were caught red-handed setting limpet mines on oil tankers.

Now that they've shot down a US drone it is even more important that Trump respond. There are plenty of targets in Iran---IMHO he should take out all the Iranian bases for the Revolutionary guard speedboats and the missile base that shot down the US drone and maybe some oil infrastructure, i.e. something similar to what Reagan did the last time Iran starting attacking tankers in the Gulf.

The reason for the US to do a military strike is to show the Iranians that there is a price to pay for their terror attacks and aggression. There is a risk of starting a war with iran, but there is also a risk of war starting if the US does nothing and Iran continues its attacks and becomes more and more aggressive.

Cheers!
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 21 Jun 2019, 10:12:43

Naw, bump it down to the House and let them figure it out.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 21 Jun 2019, 10:31:40

Trump was Trump again, doing something unexpected.

This time he ordered an attack on Iran in response to their terror attacks on oil tankers and the downing of a US drone, but then he changed his mind and called off the attack after learning that it would cause casualties. Apparently Trump learned that a US attack would cause casualties in Iran and felt that wasn't commensurate with the Iranian attacks, which haven't yet caused casualties.

We'll have to see if this emboldens the Iranians to more terror attacks, or if they are so overwhelmed with gratitude for Trump's restraint that they in turn restrain themselves.

I'm very curious to see how this turns out now.

Cheers!
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 21 Jun 2019, 12:55:08

More evidence.

https://gcaptain.com/navy-says-mine-fra ... er-attack/

Various other articles at same source, Brits sending 100 marines, etc.
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