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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 13:29:44

The maximum prices I posted are from Baduila's graph, the descending green line. The prices are not from the Etp MAP curve.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby marmico » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 14:19:52

It was also qualified that the figures were for 31st December each year


A niggle. The prices in the ETP Model are January 1 each year. Quote from page 17: Values given are for beginning of year.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Baduila » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 14:43:51

Thank you, Kublikhan, for the long answer.

Remark:
Speculation on stocks etc. is always risky. One guy wins a dollar , which another looses.

To your numbers:
Q1 2018 startet with 60,37 $, Q3 ended on septembre 28 with an oil price (WTI) of 73,25 $. Thats 21%. Trump surely has a part in this, but his rhetoric only delayed the price crash.
His other actions (tariffs) weakened the world economy.
OPEC+ recognized the weak demand from the world economy and decided for production cuts in novembre 2018.

The real world production numbers (all liquids) are:

Nov 18: 102310 (EIA)
Dec 18: 101728 (EIA)
Jan 19: 100002 (EIA)
Feb 19: 99851 (EIA)
Mar 19: 99300 (MOMR)
Apr 19: 98800 (MOMR)
May 19: 98300 (MOMR)

a minus of 4000000 barrels per day.

OPEC+ has lifted the oil price and saved a lot of US companies.

There is no compensation of the OPEC+ cuts by other countries. Your numbers are totally outdated.

Today, there are heavy cuts, and despite the cuts, the stocks grew.
The result was end of may 2019 another price crash.

Kublikhan: Then there is the trade war which doesn't look to be ending anytime soon and is hurting demand.
I agree. And there is a weak world economy hurting demand.

Unfortunately, you have not given an explanation why the five points are on the LODD, or why the price is halved in 2019. All your explanations say, that you do not exclude that the five points may be on a line, and that the price 2019 should be lower than 2013, without referring to any numbers. And all of this is more or less guesswork.

In contrast, there is a model based on hard physics. Two different derivations based on the second law of thermodynamics exist. Both say that the energy to produce oil will be equal the energy content of oil in the near future. The model projects an oil price decay in the form which has happened since 2008. The real price decay is only about 7 $/year, not 11 $ /year as predicted in 2012. The model did neither include price oscillations caused by LTO, nor OPEC+ cuts, resulting in deviations from the 2012 prediction. But reality confirms the model.

Why should i believe in a guesswork price model, if hard physics gives better explanations ? Sorry Kublikhan, but all your efforts will be without success.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 15:07:08

The maximum prices I posted are from Baduila's graph, the descending green line. The prices are not from the Etp MAP curve.


That is a correct statement. The Maximum Affordability Function broke in 2017 after 59 years of accurate estimates. The fact that it broke after such an extended period of time is ominous in itself. Something in the monetary system is changing, and dramatically. Most likely it is a predecessor to a Minsky Moment. The world's debt load is now in excess of $250 trillion, and return on assets is abysmally low. So low; that $11 trillion of sovereign bonds are now paying negative rates.

All of those negative yielding assets are losing value by the day. By expiration their value will be (0) zero. When investors begin to realize that they are holding nothing but hot air, that will never generate a return, the price is going to fall very fast. Negative rate investments are sold on a currency change assumption.This one didn't happen.

The thing about Minsky Moments is they give you a lot of warning about their comimg. This one has been broadcasting for sometime.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 15:57:55

The WTI price from 2016 does actually fit a Minsky moment curve. If this really is a Minsky moment, then the top was in November 2018 and we would now be in the capitulation phase.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 16:02:30

Baduila, refer to short's post, author of said model. MAP is broken. Don't invest any money based on it or you will lose your shirt.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 16:36:04

Yoshua wrote:We are talking about maximum AFFORDABILITY, which is an economic term.


Cool. So...the price of oil has stayed well above maximum affordability....and the consumption of oil has continued. Therefore, maximum affordability is wrong.

Duh.

Go back and read what I wrote about this nonsense and spurious relationships when chuckleheads like you were pretending it functioned as advertised.

It wasn't hard to spot why it was a crock BEFORE it was proven by reality. Now that it has been disproven by reality, what part of your neurons don't function like those of us who have common sense, logic, an understanding of the meaning of words, etc etc?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 16:40:04

Baduila wrote:Since 2008, five oil price maxima exist, which are points of demand destruction.


Hey short. What's the matter, your original account getting too noticed when it comes to the welshing?

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 16:44:18

Baduila wrote:Distractions and red herrings.


The ETP certainly is. But if you are objecting to how your sock puppet has been treated Short, you deserve it for using them.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 16:46:27

Baduila wrote:And: Why is the oil price today only half of 2013 ?


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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 16:51:04

shortonoil wrote:The Maximum Affordability Function broke in 2017 after 59 years of accurate estimates.


Building a nth degree polynomial fit to historical data is not an estimate of anything, it is a best fit to historical data.

My God, the laughter that must have ensued around the morning brunch table when the editors you tried to this nonsense on were discussing the funniest thing they had seen that week.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 17:36:19

AdamB wrote:
shortonoil wrote:The Maximum Affordability Function broke in 2017 after 59 years of accurate estimates.


Building a nth degree polynomial fit to historical data is not an estimate of anything, it is a best fit to historical data.

+1

Not that he ever listens, learns, or stops posting the same nonsense.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 17:39:58

AdamB wrote:
Yoshua wrote:We are talking about maximum AFFORDABILITY, which is an economic term.

Cool. So...the price of oil has stayed well above maximum affordability....and the consumption of oil has continued. Therefore, maximum affordability is wrong.

It's like logic AND economic principles are completely foreign to shorty and his followers.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 17 Jun 2019, 09:22:58

The WTI price from 2016 does actually fit a Minsky moment curve. If this really is a Minsky moment, then the top was in November 2018 and we would now be in the capitulation phase.


That looks to be a pretty accurate assessment. The US will most likely be behind the Minsky curve because of its large capital inflows, but they are definitely not large enough to avoid the day of reckoning for long. $4 trillion/ yr. just isn't what it used to be with over $250 trillion in world debt. I expect the trigger point to be China. It has lost almost half of its primary protein source from African Swine Fever, and its tech sectors are getting pulverized. It already had a debt to GDP ration of over 320%. If the trigger turns out to be Luxemburg I'll apologize to the Chinese after their food riots have begun. The '98 Asian Financial Crisis started when the FED cut US rates by 0.25%. The world's suicide revolver is now set on a hair trigger.

What makes it assured that this is coming is shown in the graph below. Rapidly declining growth, a monstrous existing debt load, and insane leverage in the entire system is the perfect recipe for an asset value collapse. Peak is the cheery on top of our perfect dog dew sandwich.

Image
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 17 Jun 2019, 10:37:28

"dog dew sandwich"

Should I call it a Chinese hot dog when I serve one?

The Minsky moment makes a perfect fit with world GDP in current U.S dollars.

https://images.app.goo.gl/M6D89dBMopTZTjKN9
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 17 Jun 2019, 11:58:19

The Minsky moment makes a perfect fit with world GDP in current U.S dollars.


https://images.app.goo.gl/M6D89dBMopTZTjKN9

We are through the Bull Trap, and the Fear is coming up soon. I would be surprised if we make it through the summer. But, it's FED magic hat day, so we will see if Bullwinkle grabbed the depression hat by mistake. The last depression took 15 years to get over; this one coming up is likely to take 150.

The oil dipstick is showing empty.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 04:21:58

U.S crude inventories are 222 million barrels higher than reported. EIA is cooking the books to support oil prices.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9dMsQ2WsAA ... me=900x900

China is importing 10 mmbpd + domestic production of 4 mmbpd but only consuming 10 mmbpd. China's crude inventories are massive. China doesn't release crude inventory data.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 12:24:03

U.S crude inventories are 222 million barrels higher than reported. EIA is cooking the books to support oil prices.


If those 222 mb had been used in the US economy they would have generated $666 billion in additional GDP. We know that they were produced; so where's the money? I have strongly suspected that something funny was going on when the Max Affordability Function broke after 58 years of being correct.

If that 222 mb had been accounted for, WTI would now be somewhere close to the $29 projected. Wonder who is paying the storage charges on it?


Thanks for the link, and keep us posted if you come across anymore on this.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 12:54:35

EIA actually did declare that they would no longer count produced crude held at the site of leased land in 2016.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9eT12SWwAA ... name=large
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 16:45:38

EIA actually did declare that they would no longer count produced crude held at the site of leased land in 2016.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9eT12SWwAA ... name=large


220 mb is $11 billion at $50. Not many sane operators are going to stuff that kind of money under the mattress without being reimbursed. Smells a little fishy, or something is rotten in Denmark.
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