Cog wrote:The ETP model was completely discredited last year and I'm surprised anyone wants their name associated with it. Even Shorty has abandoned this thread.
Smart move for a welsher.
Cog wrote:The ETP model was completely discredited last year and I'm surprised anyone wants their name associated with it. Even Shorty has abandoned this thread.
shortonoil wrote:Back to the ETP model. It is interesting to note that prices have been above the maximum level for 20 months. For me that means the model is well and truly broken. We need a ETP mark 2 model
You are correct. The price of oil has disconnected from its 100 year correlation to petroleum production.
marmico wrote:BahamasEd has moved from posting an ETP weekly MAP last year to an ETP semi-annually MAP this year. What a joke.
Then the ETP Bozo posts his weekly current* GDP/cumulative oil production graph. He might as well post a GDP/cumulative egg production graph.
shortonoil wrote:When the only responses made to a post are made by BDSS (Brain Dead Serial Spammers) that is an indication that people are apparently noticing how bad the real economy is actually becoming.
Plenty of examples here of correlations of far more value than those of some common welsher.
BahamasEd wrote:Back to the ETP, at least it did predict, back in 2014, that the trend going forward would be towards lower prices.
...but it freaking does.
shortonoil wrote:When the Maximum Affordability Function failed in 2017, I found that by adjusting the function's start date from Jan 1, 1900 by a few months the function's output returned to normal against the data.
asg70 wrote:shortonoil wrote:When the Maximum Affordability Function failed in 2017, I found that by adjusting the function's start date from Jan 1, 1900 by a few months the function's output returned to normal against the data.
In other words, when the chart doesn't produce the results you want, keep cooking the books until it does. Such objective methodology!
shortonoil wrote:...but it freaking does.
We shall await Bahamas graph.
When the Maximum Affordability Function failed in 2017, I found that by adjusting the function's start date from Jan 1, 1900 by a few months the function's output returned to normal against the data. Since there was no theoretical justification for doing it, I dropped it. Of course, a graphical solution is often possible for most mathematical problems. When using something like a currency, that has no fundamental physical bases, it may be the best approach. The stock market thrives on technical analysis for some indeterminable reason outside of the fact that people relate to simple straight line representations.
Yoshua wrote:The MAP curve goes through annual average price points. If Bahamas had made a graph with annual average WTI price points and drawn a line through those points, then the WTI and the MAP would show better correlation...not perfect...but good enough.
shortonoil wrote:Plenty of examples here of correlations of far more value than those of some common welsher.
More regurgitation from a BDSS (Brain Dead Serial Spammer). The correlation between the Etp Model's output, and the price of oil has been phenomenal (r = 0.956).
shortonoil wrote:The energy to produce oil has been almost perfectly correlated to its price for over 58 years.
shortonoil wrote:We are probably witnessing one of the most dramatic events in human history.
Yoshua wrote:The MAP curve goes through annual average price points. If Bahamas had made a graph with annual average WTI price points and drawn a line through those points, then the WTI and the MAP would show better correlation...not perfect...but good enough.
And that is despite all the money printing by the central banks.
I have said that the MAP doesn't work after the Energy Half Way Point...but it freaking does.
shortonoil wrote:...but it freaking does.
We shall await Bahamas graph.
Yoshua wrote:I wish that the Etp Model is wrong though.
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