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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 29 May 2019, 08:35:39

asg70 wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:How about you? Do you see any EVs where you live?


I sure as hell do, all the time, and not just Teslas. One time I parked at a discount store and when I came out another Hyundai EV (Ioniq) was parked right next to me. I don't know if he just wanted to get a look at my Kona or it was just a coincidence.


I haven't seen an Ioniq in the wild yet. My neighborhood started going EV as far back as the Volt and original Leaf though, the only recent addition has been the Model X next door. So maybe the local market was already saturated? I didn't even know the Ioniq was out until after the fact, and normally I keep up with such things.

asg70 wrote:I think the statistics lie a little bit when electrics are concerned. There are a ton of gas cars that are registered that may not be actively driven. But those who have electric cars are using them as their daily drivers and so they're simply more visible than the statistics may indicate.


I found a Leaf parked in a garage not 3 houses up last week, I've lived here for going on a decade now and never saw it arrive. Sneaky EVs, being quiet and all! It had a plate on it already so it couldn't have been a new acquisition, and it was a Gen 1 Leaf. So across just 4 houses on my side of the street we've got 3 EVs. Trying to make the odd neighbor out see the error of their ways perhaps.

I wonder why peak oilers all don't own one of these things, if they really believe what their Bible tells them about peak oil and shortages and rationing and hundreds of dollar per barrel oil prices and whatnot? I wonder sometimes if Savinar has one, and uses it on his way to seances or his palm reading gig at the local carnival?
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 29 May 2019, 09:42:20

If you remember the basic peak oil theory, the peak occurs when half the total resource is consumed. IOW the area underneath the production curve after peak will equal the area before peak.

The curve started in the late 1800s. The cumulative production is HUGE. Granted, when the only use for petroleum was kerosene to replace whale oil in lamps, demand was a tiny fraction of what it is today. The second half of the curve will not be 150 years long, but a lesser period due to vastly increased demand. We also have the "Seneca Cliff" scenario which may come into play and further decrease the available oil production during the decline. Let us be conservative here and say that we will have a Seneca Cliff and it will indeed be severe - and reduce the duration of post peak production by two thirds.

That leaves us with only 50 years of increasingly expensive petroleum fuels. Most people keep a car less than 10 years, so there is time to own a couple or three more ICE vehicles before the average Middle Class citizen cannot afford the cost of petroleum fuels and is forced to compromise by acquiring a BEV. Also remember that as fuel prices increase, the viability of fuels made from coal is enhanced - and nowadays the crossover to coal would be (in my estimate) somewhere between $10/gallon and $15/gallon.

I weary of saying it, but peak oil, as with most things in this world, is a process, not an event. Since it takes months if not years to make a reasonably accurate statement about total petroleum produced, we may have already passed that milestone - and very possibly, the age of oil will be over in only say 50 years.

Not many of us will live to see that. But you can understand why buying a 2019 Jeep Grand Cherokee was still a viable choice for me the week before last, while I was 67 and my wife 64 years of age. It could be the last vehicle we ever buy. We will still be buying fuel for it even at $10/gallon, and probably at $15/gallon, after fuel production becomes coal-based. I do tend to keep vehicles a long time, our last Jeep Grand Cherokee, a 2001 model, was donated to a charity when it was 18 years old and had 220,000 miles on the odometer.

Peak oil is indeed a portent of Doom, meaning in this case a major economic disruption. However that disruption will not be apocalyptic and will occur over a period of a few decades.

In spite of the above, I am personally a fan of BEVs. If it had been my turn to buy a vehicle, I would have selected one without a fuel tank. But we live in a village with a half dozen gas stations (at least) within a mile radius of my new home, while the closest Tesla superchargers are at the UW Madison campus about 18 miles away. There are probably many privately owned BEVs and private chargers in the garages around me - but I would still have to spend about $1500 after acquiring a BEV to install a Level 2 charger for it in my own garage.

Bottom line is that BEV owners are still in 2019, a decade since the original Tesla Roadster, early adopters.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 29 May 2019, 11:17:49

KaiserJeep wrote:If you remember the basic peak oil theory, the peak occurs when half the total resource is consumed. IOW the area underneath the production curve after peak will equal the area before peak.


I am aware of the basic symmetry of the peak oil claim. And can prove it wrong in nearly every major producing region of the planet. Always wondered why Happy McPeaksters didn't do that work first as a refinement on Hubbert's initial idea before marrying it and looking the fools.

KaiserJeep wrote:I weary of saying it, but peak oil, as with most things in this world, is a process, not an event. Since it takes months if not years to make a reasonably accurate statement about total petroleum produced, we may have already passed that milestone - and very possibly, the age of oil will be over in only say 50 years.


And a point completely ignored by peaksters is that peak oil can be caused by a demand drop as well. It is almost religious, the way the McPeaksters flee the concept of supply and demand together forming the ultimate supply path. Always wondered why, and unfortunately the answer always come back to a need to have a doom scenario, rather than the market just doing what it has been doing since before you and I or the McPeaksters were born.

KaiserJeep wrote:Peak oil is indeed a portent of Doom, meaning in this case a major economic disruption. However that disruption will not be apocalyptic and will occur over a period of a few decades.


And no one will even notice if it comes from the demand side. Which is even worse for the Oilpocalypse crowd!

KaiserJeep wrote:In spite of the above, I am personally a fan of BEVs.


Practical is practical, even McPeaksters can't deny that one. Although I seem to recall others having said this years ago on this forum and being ignored for daring to not include it as an aside back during the neutron weapons and long pork conversational days.

KaiserJeep wrote:If it had been my turn to buy a vehicle, I would have selected one without a fuel tank. But we live in a village with a half dozen gas stations (at least) within a mile radius of my new home, while the closest Tesla superchargers are at the UW Madison campus about 18 miles away. There are probably many privately owned BEVs and private chargers in the garages around me - but I would still have to spend about $1500 after acquiring a BEV to install a Level 2 charger for it in my own garage.


I'm still a fan of trickle charging mine to death. Easier to do when you aren't trying to jam 50 kWh into the thing though. Plus the slow charging seems to be doing great for longevity, 5 years of use and 100K miles (not all EV of course) and I must have lost some state of charge but it isn't showing in any obvious way.

KaiserJeep wrote:Bottom line is that BEV owners are still in 2019, a decade since the original Tesla Roadster, early adopters.


Sure. But some of us are on our 2nd one already, so we don't feel like early adopters much. The Volt was the first real wide scale intro, and back when it came out you could just see the peak oil scarcity and cost fear falling off my shoulders! Let the monster truck drivers pay $$ to fill their tanks, I'm paying maybe $0.06/kwh if I choose the right time of day and that never changed much through the entire peak oil fear meme of a decade ago.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 29 May 2019, 11:22:05

KaiserJeep wrote:you can understand why buying a 2019 Jeep Grand Cherokee was still a viable choice for me the week before last, while I was 67 and my wife 64 years of age. It could be the last vehicle we ever buy


Sure, it makes sense if you
a) aren't concerned about peak oil doom and
b) aren't concerned about environmental footprint.

Where we are on the continuum, peak oil is still a ways off and nobody gives a rat's ass about their environmental footprint.

There used to be a lot of discussion about how being red-pilled (a term that has since been co-opted by the "manosphere") offered a distinct strategic advantage. You could buy rural land when it was cheap or buy alt-energy gear while petroleum was propping up their manufacturing.

Back then peak oil doomers would have lined up to buy even first-gen Leafs for the basic commuter and grocery-getter utility they offered.

Not so much of that rhetoric anymore. People are engaging in simple short-term market-based cost-benefit assessments, which, of course, favor ICE vehicles.

If my car hadn't been quickly falling apart at the seams I probably would have postponed my EV purchase until the big wave of vehicles that is due in the next few years. But since I too have a habit of driving cars into the ground I simply could NOT see making a long-term investment in another gas car, neither for the sake of peak-oil OR my carbon footprint.

So I really don't think it makes sense to buy into a new gas car if you care about peak oil OR global warming. Doing so is some combination of being lazy, selfish, and careless.

Even though I don't expect gas prices to spike to $10+ anytime soon, it offers me peace of mind to finally be free of the need to pay for gasoline. Unfortunately I'm still dependent on fuel oil for winter heating, though. People really should take advantage of the remaining years of BAU to strategically shift where the opportunity presents itself and not just lazily double-down on fossil fuel.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 30 May 2019, 01:12:10

asg70 wrote:
Sure, it makes sense if you
a) aren't concerned about peak oil doom and
b) aren't concerned about environmental footprint.

Where we are on the continuum, peak oil is still a ways off and nobody gives a rat's ass about their environmental footprint.


But I AM concerned about peak oil and my environmental footprint. I managed to get my driving down from 12,000 miles per year to less than 1000, saving 90+% of the gasoline in the process. Also, the house I just sold was by the time I sold it, an Energy+ home, with more electricity added to the grid by a solar PV roof than was consumed. I'm currently planning similar things for the two homes I own now.

asg70 wrote:-snip-

If my car hadn't been quickly falling apart at the seams I probably would have postponed my EV purchase until the big wave of vehicles that is due in the next few years. But since I too have a habit of driving cars into the ground I simply could NOT see making a long-term investment in another gas car, neither for the sake of peak-oil OR my carbon footprint.

So I really don't think it makes sense to buy into a new gas car if you care about peak oil OR global warming. Doing so is some combination of being lazy, selfish, and careless.

Even though I don't expect gas prices to spike to $10+ anytime soon, it offers me peace of mind to finally be free of the need to pay for gasoline. Unfortunately I'm still dependent on fuel oil for winter heating, though. People really should take advantage of the remaining years of BAU to strategically shift where the opportunity presents itself and not just lazily double-down on fossil fuel.


What part of "It was the wife's turn to choose" did you not understand? I made the pitch for a BEV, but that is not what the wife wanted. I don't know how you would handle that situation, but personally I don't believe in cracking your woman over the head with a club, dragging her into your cave by her hair, and forcing her to do what you want. If I ever purchase a new vehicle (unlikely since the 2003 Jeep Wrangler just turned over 60,000 miles on the trip over from the West Coast), then I will buy a BEV then. But that car is presently in very good condition, with low miles, and probably will get driven LESS on Nantucket Island than the 1000 miles per year it was driving in California before I moved.

Perhaps you should ask yourself why you have not modified your lifestyle to drive less. I personally became a lightrail and commuter train patron for several years before I made yet another change and telecommuted from home. A 16 year old car with 60,000 miles, do the math. After several years at 12,000 miles per year, I simply quit driving it, instead choosing to use mass transit, and then I quit using any transit at all and worked at home, using telephones and microsoft virtual meeting software.

We both know that if you charge your EV off of the grid, and don't own a solar roof or a wind turbine, you are powering that car with FF's like natural gas and coal, burned in remote power plants.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 30 May 2019, 09:22:16

Move over Tesla.

In the long run, the company foresees producing more than 10,000 vehicles a year, with a sticker cost that would “approach the price of a luxury car,” Hanvey said. They will be built in three basic configurations - for taxi or personal passenger flights, for emergency medical transport and for cargo delivery.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1T0078
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 30 May 2019, 09:27:29

Newfie wrote:Move over Tesla.

In the long run, the company foresees producing more than 10,000 vehicles a year, with a sticker cost that would “approach the price of a luxury car,” Hanvey said. They will be built in three basic configurations - for taxi or personal passenger flights, for emergency medical transport and for cargo delivery.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1T0078


About time! I've been waiting for this ever since the Jetson's cartoon series aired in the 1960's. What an age of delusion we were all born into.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 30 May 2019, 12:56:02

Every one of the flying "cars" promoted over the years was for the express purpose of fleecing investors. None ever got close to production.

The whole idea is a silly one anyway. Pilots require years of training and experience. The average commmuter can't even operate a wheeled vehicle safely. The public road is the most dangerous place or activity most of us experience in our lives. I don't want flying "cars" crashing into things, or the average mentally dense American anywhere near the controls.

Airplanes are not completely safe either. However the whole system of airports, air traffic control, and professional aviators makes it overall lots safer than the typical highway.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 23:38:10

You won't see flying cars in the classic sense of the word. You may see flying short-hop taxi services.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/16/tech/lil ... index.html

I think it will be much more expensive than what this article suggests. I think it will be too expensive to result in a mass of air traffic but cheap enough for people to experience every now and then, sort of like hiring a limo.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 12:01:21

another Tesla self-combusts.....this one while plugged into a supercharger.

tesla-spontaneously-combusts-while-plugged-supercharger

Corvairs were once described as unsafe at any speed because they could burst into flame in even a small, low-speed rear-end collision.

Teslas go that one better.....they can burst into flame when they aren't even moving.

Image
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 23:26:24

Here comes Tesla's new EV pick-up truck....due out this summer

tesla-pickup-truck

Base price planned to be ca. 49K, making it competitive with top end ICE pick up trucks.

Image
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Cog » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 06:03:29

He won't sell any base models of that truck just like he didn't sell any base models of the Model 3. 49K will be 60k overnight. If this truck will even exist, which I doubt.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 10:27:34

Plantagenet wrote:Here comes Tesla's new EV pick-up truck....due out this summer

tesla-pickup-truck

Base price planned to be ca. 49K, making it competitive with top end ICE pick up trucks.

Image
Cheers!


Not a fan of attaching images that are clearly fan speculation to articles about vehicles that haven't been revealed.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 12:47:52

asg70 wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Here comes Tesla's new EV pick-up truck....due out this summer

tesla-pickup-truck

Base price planned to be ca. 49K, making it competitive with top end ICE pick up trucks.

Image
Cheers!


Not a fan of attaching images that are clearly fan speculation to articles about vehicles that haven't been revealed.

Also, the comment is misleading.

The truck is due to be unveiled sometime this summer. Not produced. Given Musk production timelines and Tesla's various issues, volume production could be quite a long way off.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 18:22:07

Tesla model "X" spontaneously melts in Belgium

tesla-model-x-melts

This time the car didn't burst into flame, but instead only released enough heat to melt the dash and the most of the rest of the interior of the car.

This wasn't the mass market Tesla either....this was a top-of-the-line $175,000 Model X, less then two years old.

Maybe thats a good reason to avoid the cheaper Tesla and buy the more expensive model X....the cheaper ones sometimes burst into flames while the more expensive model X merely melts, and it doesn't do that very often.

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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 19:02:41

Plantagenet wrote:Tesla model "X" spontaneously melts in Belgium

tesla-model-x-melts

This time the car didn't burst into flame, but instead only released enough heat to melt the dash and the most of the rest of the interior of the car.


Thank goodness all those normal powered cars don't do this!!
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 02:56:05

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Tesla model "X" spontaneously melts in Belgium

tesla-model-x-melts

This time the car didn't burst into flame, but instead only released enough heat to melt the dash and the most of the rest of the interior of the car.


Thank goodness all those normal powered cars don't do this!!

To be fair, in my experience, the ICE cars that have fires start in the engine compartment are NOT fairly new cars, under warranty, etc. in 99% of the cases.

They are old cars, where something goes wrong like a leaking fuel line, and then a fire starts. (And it's not that easy for them to start from such issues, or from accidents). I had a gasoline smell in my oldest car. Under the hood with the engine at idle, it was frightening -- like a damn sprinkler system spewing gas all over, including things like the exhaust manifold. I took it to a nearby shop right away -- bad fuel pump.)

One correction to Plant's post: It's not the "mass produced" versions of the Teslas that are doing this, at least at this point. It's been the Model S's (for all the stories I've seen) up to now, and now it's an X. We're talking expensive, exclusive cars here.

Now, as they age, the mass produced Model 3's could well start having similar problems, or not. We'll have to see.

...

Given the intensity of such Tesla fires and the re-ignition issue, if the industry doesn't get this WELL sorted out, I'm starting to have my doubts re parking one of these near my house over night. I already am leery re the LI ION battery packs for backup power, given the intensity with which such large batteries can burn.

I'm sure this can be made safe -- but to me, it discourages early adoption, since burning down my house isn't in my plans.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 10:42:31

Outcast_Searcher wrote:To be fair, in my experience, the ICE cars that have fires start in the engine compartment are NOT fairly new cars, under warranty, etc. in 99% of the cases.

They are old cars, where something goes wrong like a leaking fuel line, and then a fire starts. (And it's not that easy for them to start from such issues, or from accidents). I had a gasoline smell in my oldest car. Under the hood with the engine at idle, it was frightening -- like a damn sprinkler system spewing gas all over, including things like the exhaust manifold. I took it to a nearby shop right away -- bad fuel pump.)


Precisely right.

While ICE cars certainly do catch on fire, its typically due to a leak somewhere in the fuel system resulting in ignition and combustion. In other words, when there is a problem we know what the problem is.

Its a different situation with the fires in Teslas and other EVs. We don't know what the problem is...in fact these seem to be perfectly well-functioning cars. Sometimes they ignite when charging. Sometimes they ignite when sitting on the street or in a parking garage. Sometimes they ignite when driving down the road. Sometimes they ignite after a collision. Basically, We don't know why they are spontaneously combusting, and so far no one has identified what should be fixed. It appears there is a FLAW IN THE DESIGN of the battery system of these cars that makes them prone to self-immolation.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Given the intensity of such Tesla fires and the re-ignition issue, if the industry doesn't get this WELL sorted out, I'm starting to have my doubts re parking one of these near my house over night. I already am leery re the LI ION battery packs for backup power, given the intensity with which such large batteries can burn.

I'm sure this can be made safe -- but to me, it discourages early adoption, since burning down my house isn't in my plans.


I suggest that all EVs should have a warning decal pasted onto their dashboard .... WARNING THIS CAR MAY SELF COMBUST AT ANY TIME --- BUT DON'T WORRY ICE CARS ALSO CATCH ON FIRE

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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 13:54:43

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Tesla model "X" spontaneously melts in Belgium

tesla-model-x-melts

This time the car didn't burst into flame, but instead only released enough heat to melt the dash and the most of the rest of the interior of the car.


Thank goodness all those normal powered cars don't do this!!

To be fair, in my experience, the ICE cars that have fires start in the engine compartment are NOT fairly new cars, under warranty, etc. in 99% of the cases.


Planty has a bias for some reason and therefore I feel no requirement to caveat ICE cars bursting into flames and more than he does EVs. Planty undoubtedly knows this, but for some reason, there is a need to knock them. Not sure why, but then most folks aren't willing to discuss their bias because they want to pretend it doesn't exist.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Now, as they age, the mass produced Model 3's could well start having similar problems, or not. We'll have to see.


My EV is at 100K, car is 5 years old, my batteries are only air cooled, and no flames yet!

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I'm sure this can be made safe -- but to me, it discourages early adoption, since burning down my house isn't in my plans.


Same here. But the Volt didn't burn mine down, the Ford hasn't shown any hints in this direction, so I'll just keep rolling the dice with my no longer early adoption of battery powered cars!
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 14:03:48

Plantagenet wrote:While ICE cars certainly do catch on fire, its typically due to a leak somewhere in the fuel system resulting in ignition and combustion. In other words, when there is a problem we know what the problem is.


You mean, like when EVs catch on fire, there is a fault somewhere in the system (like a leak in an ICE) and then maybe it doesn't ignite and combust but just throws battery fault codes? And only when there is a manufacturing defect of some sort does an ignition happen? Like when there is a manufacturing defect in an ICE car?

Sort of like Ford's ignition recall of 7.9 million vehicles for model years 88-93? Shorts in the ignition column caught the car on fire, car and house burn down? That sort of problem that no one pretended to know about until 3 years afterwards?

Yes...those ICEs never burst into flames on their own....only EVs...

About that bias Planty, you are maybe going to claim that this is why you didn't take a test ride? You were afraid of this EV spontaneous combustion issue? Sounds like you've got more to worry about being near one of those 7.9 million Fords that may or may not have been fixed.
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