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The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 25 May 2019, 21:55:59

I just found a chart of the 5-year/3-month spread on FRED:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=n5OI

You have to zoom in really close with the slider thing below the chart.

It looks like the spread did go barely positive for 3 days from April 16-18. But I mean just barely. Not sure if that's enough for Mr Harvey's observation or not. Even if it does, it just postpones the watch date from mid-June to mid-July.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Sun 26 May 2019, 05:52:51

Campbell employs four horsemen to forecast recessions.

https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/duke-fuqua-i ... curve-2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucy3Sqh ... 1558865266

The Conference Board employs ten horsemen. I will flip to the recession camp when the LEI turns down.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 17:54:24

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 09:46:52

The Conference Board LEI was flat in May 2019.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The time....has not arrived.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 15:34:56

Housing Market Signals Coming Recession
Forecasts for global economic growth for 2019 and 2020 have been shaved from last year’s 3.6% growth rate to 3.3% in 2019. That estimate came from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook published in April and may prove to be too optimistic.

In a report published last week by William Emmons, lead economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Center for Household Stability, warns that the housing signals are strengthening for a recession later this year or in the first half of next year.

A slowdown in the housing market has preceded every U.S. recession since World War II, says Emmons, and there are four indicators to keep an eye on: falling 30-year fixed mortgage rates, sales of existing homes, real (inflation-adjusted) home prices and the contribution of residential investment to growth of U.S. gross domestic product.

Mortgage loan interest rates that fall from their most recent cyclical peak have preceded each of the three most recent U.S. recessions by four to seven quarters. Emmons includes the following graph showing interest rate movements around the recessions of the early 1990s, 2001 and 2008. Precedent indicates the beginning of the next recession in the fourth quarter of this year.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 10:21:18

The Conference Board LEI declined in June 2019. No recognizable peak in the Index yet.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The time....has not arrived.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 19 Jul 2019, 00:37:16

Thanks for posting that report. Both indicators look close to zero but are positive.

Interestingly there are some differences from the 2008 recession, where the leading indicator dipped about a year and a half before the coincident indicator, whereas for the last couple of months they are both turning slightly down at the same rate. This means that the leading indicator is at this time not giving any advanced warning --- this just could be random movement for a couple of months within statistical norms, as in the percentage change chart for 2000 and 2005.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Fri 19 Jul 2019, 05:40:51

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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 21 Jul 2019, 15:28:57

marmico wrote:The Conference Board LEI declined in June 2019. No recognizable peak in the Index yet.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The time....has not arrived.
On the contrary, it looks as if it could be forming a top.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 21 Jul 2019, 16:02:22

A critical recession indicator used by the Fed just hit its highest level since the financial crisis
A key recession tracker just hit its highest level since 2009, sending a signal that an economic downturn may be looming on the horizon.

The New York Federal Reserve's probability model, which predicts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, delivered a reading of 32.9% for June.

That's could mean tough times ahead, considering the measure has breached the 30% threshold before every recession since 1960. It sat at a precarious 28% in May.

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 03:05:19

Interesting chart, but there have been a number of false spikes, and most recessions have happened when there was less than 50-50 chance of a recession, and once it hit the peak after the recession was over. But despite all haziness of the prediction that chart is sending out a worrying signal.

Does this mark the end of the time of Copious Abundance? Soon time for a name change???? :P
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 08:11:53

EdwinSm wrote:Does this mark the end of the time of Copious Abundance? Soon time for a name change???? :P


When he was busy mocking people's day-to-day end-is-nighism, he WAS correct and they were wrong, but I've heard it said that this is the longest the US economy has gone without a recession. Even if things are merely cyclical, the good times can't last forever.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 08:15:54

Even cornucopians recognize recessionary cycles. We make money on them. But its not the end of the world as doomers are wanting to happen.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 19:55:15

EdwinSm wrote:Does this mark the end of the time of Copious Abundance? Soon time for a name change???? :P

It would just be an ordinary recession, nothing more sinister than that.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 20:41:29

copious.abundance wrote:- The 1-year/7-year yield curve is inverted.
- So is the 6-month/5-year

https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/

To emphasize how the bond market has deteriorated since I posted that in early January ... the yield on the 1-month is now higher than the yield on the 10-year! :shock: That's right, people are getting a higher rate of interest on a 1-month investment than a 10-year investment! 8O

But if you want to read something really interesting, check this out:

Yield Curve Weirdness

My new thesis I've been developing for the past several months is that yields on (at least some) US treasuries will follow those of other developed countries and head into negative territory. Though what the implications of that are, beyond that the bond market is pricing in long-term low growth and low inflation, I know not.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 22:22:10

It would just be an ordinary recession, nothing more sinister than that.


which is a pretty important point. Some here want to always point to the 2008 recession as being standard, which, of course it was not. A few of the previous recessions were hardly noticeable, in a couple of cases most didn't realize there was a recession until recovery had already begun.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 14 Aug 2019, 17:43:56

Getting closer ... closer ... closer.

Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red
The yield curve is blaring a recession warning.

The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.

“Historically, the 2-10 has had better predictive ability of recession than equities,” Sri Kumar, president of the Santa Monica, California-based Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, told Fox Business.

“If you depended on equities to tell you whether you are entering into a recession you did not do well. For example, October, November of 2006, exactly one year before the Great Recession began, the 2-10- inverted. Equities did well in the first half of 2008 when we were in a recession and oil prices hit a peak in May of 2008 when we were very much in a recession.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Sys1 » Thu 15 Aug 2019, 04:45:32

We are supposed to handle a recession with negative rates and explosive debt since 2008?
Nothing cyclical, guys, we are still in 2008 so called crisis (actually the first chapter of peak oil aka civilisation collapse), the proof is that rates didn't get back to normal levels.
Central banks are stucked for a decade with 0% rates and economy still can't stand up by itself. Only bubbles are inflating. Again.
Back in 2008, Countries bought junk bonds to banks in order to pretend business as usual is safe.
After that, banks asked the very same countries who saved them to kill public service in the name of "modernity", all of that to achieve debt sustainability. I call that money's slavery, and I see the effect with new generations unable to find a job, a roof or buy a car. Now youth is doomed to procrastinate on their smartphone, living a pointless life.
What happens when oil production starts its terminal decline during next decade?
What happens when inflation goes to the roof and any increase of rates burst again banks and their belove real estate and bitcoin economy?
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Thu 15 Aug 2019, 11:42:12

Doomers vary between deflation and hyperinflation depending on their doomer mood. They haven't been correct yet on predicting outcomes.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Aug 2019, 15:08:46

Sys1 wrote:We are supposed to handle a recession with negative rates and explosive debt since 2008?

If you want to keep getting terrible results re economic predictions over time, keep pretending debt is the only meaningful financial statistic.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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