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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 16 May 2019, 20:09:27

Another day another batch of worthless zerohedge spam.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 16 May 2019, 21:11:18

Another day and cornies still have their heads in the sand. Just like the typical sheep who only look at the DOW as their economic indicator. The hell with the real economy.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Thu 16 May 2019, 21:33:30

I seem to have made a good deal of money during this eight month stock market crash. Maybe I'm doing it wrong.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 16 May 2019, 21:45:40

Cog wrote:I seem to have made a good deal of money during this eight month stock market crash. Maybe I'm doing it wrong.



Reminds me of the guy who jumped off a 100 story building and around the 50th floor, he says, see, this isn’t so bad
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 16 May 2019, 21:47:52

Unsold vehicles his 10 yr high in May


We are in 2007 all over again. This time, with no ammo


I remember people in 2007 saying everything is fine.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 16 May 2019, 22:07:20

Reminds me of the guy who jumped off a 100 story building and around the 50th floor, he says, see, this isn’t so bad


you probably need to find yourself another analogy....it doesn't fit at all with what Cog said. Not even close.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 17 May 2019, 10:39:10

rockdoc123 wrote:
Reminds me of the guy who jumped off a 100 story building and around the 50th floor, he says, see, this isn’t so bad


you probably need to find yourself another analogy....it doesn't fit at all with what Cog said. Not even close.


That's the things with NPCs. They just spit out the same boilerplate responses time and time again.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 17 May 2019, 11:26:07

Just make sure you guys are around here this Fall and Winter for the rate cuts, QE4 and negative GDP.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 17 May 2019, 12:40:54

Auto-Loan Delinquencies Spike To Q3 2009 Level, Despite Strongest Labor Market In Years

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https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... rket-years

The auto companies know how to fix it: buy back their own stock with cheap money they borrow from the FED. It is also known as a circle jerk economy, and it may work until the next election; then again it may not!

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-end-of-t ... -it-means/

We have now gotten to the point where oil can no longer provide enough energy to drive capital investment, so companies just buy back their own stock. It doesn't take much energy to print up a pile of money, especially when no goods and services are required to back it. With Peak at hand, and assuming a long term 3% decline rate there will soon not be enough energy to even maintain what is already there. The FED will have no other option but to cut rates, and bring out the helicopters.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 17 May 2019, 13:25:36

Armageddon wrote:Another day and cornies still have their heads in the sand. Just like the typical sheep who only look at the DOW as their economic indicator. The hell with the real economy.

More cherry picking by the doomers and ignoring any good news in the economy. And of course, pretending the markets have nothing to do with correlating with the economy, over time.

Yeah, that's credible, as always. 8)

But let's pretend unemployment, consumer confidence, and positive news on trade have NOTHING to do with the economy. Sure.

https://www.cnbc.com/economy/
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 17 May 2019, 13:28:39

Armageddon wrote:Good news on housing? Was that a joke?

And of course, you omitted my link, which SHOWED the good news stories on housing.

You are the joke.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 17 May 2019, 15:06:27

Class 8 trucks (18 wheelers) sales are down 63% YoY!! OMG. Go long Donkey Carts R Us. At that rate of decline it will be the new Amazon in two years.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 17 May 2019, 15:32:52

I think all US manufacturing surveys are now indicating a fairly downbeat picture, even at the headline level


Shit is getting real. Probably time for another shipment of gold and silver. 100 oz silver bars and 1 oz gold buffalo’s are my new thing. Love the 999’s
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 17 May 2019, 15:59:59

Back in the good old days; before the Internet, that was called a depression. The social network system, that cost 60% of the Federal budget, was enough so that today it doesn't resemble 1929. Instead of soup lines there is ETB, etc, etc, ∞. If you don't feed them they tend to get pissy. The Chinese are having a really bad year;; on top of a systemic ongoing global economic collapse - their Pigs died. Wait until the ALGOs figure that one out!

Petroleum has Peaked, and it wouldn't be inconsequential that negative economic news would accompanied it. Now we get to find out, up close and personal, how fragile our economic system really is.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 17 May 2019, 16:37:57

"Durable goods should disappoint prompting economists to ratchet back their estimates as the quarter progresses; the current GDP consensus forecast of 2.0% will likely move towards the Atlanta Fed’s estimate of 1.2% " The Daily Feather

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Fri 17 May 2019, 17:07:06

I think all US manufacturing surveys are now indicating a fairly downbeat picture, even at the headline level


Whatever spittle drools down your chin. So far in May 2019, Empire State is up to 17.8 and Philadelphia is up to 16.6. Richmond, Kansas City and Dallas have yet to report.

Image
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... g-overview

PS. Since this is a peak oil site, notice that one can clearly see the activity (ebbs, flows) levels of the Permian Basin frackers in the Dallas manufacturing survey - sharp downturn starting in late 2014, sharp upturn starting in early 2016 and moderate downturn starting in late 2018.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 17 May 2019, 19:01:33

Industrial production weakens further in March on.mktw.net/2PaFBYn "Auto production fell 2.5%. For the first quarter, auto production was down at a 12.8% annual rate, the biggest decline in almost 8 years." @DRuizG80


I really didn’t think these bad numbers would start coming in until Fall.

Can’t imagine what they’ll look like this Fall.

#shitstormbrewing
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 17 May 2019, 19:07:30

marmico wrote:
I think all US manufacturing surveys are now indicating a fairly downbeat picture, even at the headline level


Whatever spittle drools down your chin. So far in May 2019, Empire State is up to 17.8 and Philadelphia is up to 16.6. Richmond, Kansas City and Dallas have yet to report.

Image
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... g-overview

PS. Since this is a peak oil site, notice that one can clearly see the activity (ebbs, flows) levels of the Permian Basin frackers in the Dallas manufacturing survey - sharp downturn starting in late 2014, sharp upturn starting in early 2016 and moderate downturn starting in late 2018.



Look closer

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6xgk6KW4AA ... name=small
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 18 May 2019, 07:06:51

Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each of the five indicators since 2001 (for those with data). The latest average of the five for April is 7.3 up from the previous month's 7.0. It is below its all-time high of 25.1, set in May 2004.


https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... g-overview

The survey has "improved" from 25.1 in 2004 to 7.3 at present. With US oil production going down over the last few weeks, maybe it will "improve" to 6.9 next month?

The interesting part that is shown in the Dallas survey (which is heavily weighted by oil) is that oil has been following FED policy pretty closely since 2004. It also shows that FED injections have a fairly short shelve life, and they are getting shorter and shorter. If 3rd quarter '18 to 1st quarter '19 are any indication oil is going to have a bad year coming up.

Since we are now Post Peak, that will hardly be surprising.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 18 May 2019, 07:48:01

shortonoil wrote:Since we are now Post Peak


In your dreams.
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