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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 May 2019, 15:16:52

Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:And make treasuries worth less to the Chinese? You really don't understand how things work in the bond market. Us treasuries are the safest investment out there and the Chinese are well aware of that.

Good day to buy some more stock though if you are interested in making money instead of losing it due to the usual panic selling.



If China sells Treasuries it's a double win for China. Not only do they fire a fatal shot in the trade war, but it will tank the dollar and strengthen the yuan. That will increase the purchasing power of Chinese consumers, who can buy the goods no longer exported to the US

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Ah yes, the stupid never ending doomer threat of the ever-tanking dollar, even though, over time, they're always wrong.

The dollar was so worried today that the DXY was slightly up, BTW.

And let's pretend that over time, even if China puts high tariffs on all goods sold to the US, that there are no other countries which can supply any of those goods the US public and companies might want. :roll:

It might well hurt the dollar for a few months. So what? It won't crash the economy. And this isn't the scenario you have been predicting along with your empty predictions of hyperinflation, etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 13 May 2019, 15:57:27

I think the cornies are getting nervous
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 13 May 2019, 16:06:08

Rate cut and QE 4 right around the corner.


#Buckle up
#got gold?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 13 May 2019, 23:48:09

Biggest one day drop in US stock prices in months.....Now DOW at a three month low.... BUT so far still way above the low it hit last December.... and it needs to drop 10 000 points to hit the lows of 2015/2016.

Conclusion: things are not looking good, but still too early to call a crash. It might bounce like in January (although the fall was steeper), or it may continue to sink (like Uber shares :roll: )
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 14 May 2019, 07:07:59

California Home Sales Outlook: Not So Sunny - theMReport.com “Sales of $2 million-plus home saw a decline of 20.6% from last year.”
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 14 May 2019, 08:50:50

In Silicon Valley, my former home got fixed up and was loooking very sharp inside and out, after we spent $50K on remodling, landscaping, and a new deck.

The Thursday the house went into the MLS, we held a Realtor-only Open House, and got about 40-odd realtors. The folllowing Saturday/Sunday, we held Open House for everybody, four hours per day, while the wife and myself made ourselves scarce, with our Realtor as host. We had 88 people sign our book on those two days, and these were groups of 1-6 people. We began accepting bids on Tuesday, because Monday was a holiday. We got 8 offers within four hours, all for more than our asking price. We accepted the high bid which was $101K higher than our asking price.

The real estate market in California is red hot, and reaching new heights. I know this is anecdotal, but I just sold my modest little 1350 sq ft, 3-bed, 2-bath for almost $1M. It was not even air-conditioned, and was on a tiny lot.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 14 May 2019, 09:30:26

Trump, “if the FED cuts rates, we win the trade war”

LOL
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 14 May 2019, 10:14:21

If China sells Treasuries it's a double win for China.


If the Chinese sell their $1.2 trillion in US Treasuries the Yuan becomes waste paper basket material. The Yuan has already lost 5% against the dollar since the beginning of the trade war. China has a huge $ shortage, and that is what Trump is banking on. The Yuan only accounts for 1.6% of all foreign held exchange currency reserves. The dollar 62%, and the Euro about 30%. If the Chinese dump their Treasuries Powell would have the money printed up before lunch. In the present Post Peak world being the world's largest oil importer, when the price of oil is set in $, regardless of the currency it is traded in, is not the best place to be.

The US has its own problems and those are not China. 70% of its IG bond market is rated BBB; one notch above junk. The bond market is 10 times the size of the equity market. When the bond market cracks watching stocks will be like watching mosquitoes hit the windshield of a Mac Trunk. In the present Post Peak world of declining Available Energy economic models start running backwards. Ubers and Teslas; companies that have never made money, never can, and never will become the Wall Street darlings. The world will continue to pour good money after bad down its oil rat hole.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 14 May 2019, 12:20:17

Yes to everything Short said and:
Nearly 20 percent of China’s exports go to the U.S.If a trade war ensues with the U.S., China’s GDP growth would drop 0.5 percent and could continue to fall as things heat up, the IMF warns.China’s debt-to-GDP has ballooned to more than 300 percent from 160 percent a decade ago.Chinese officials now warn of a financial-sector debt bubble that’s waiting to burst.

Well the trade war has started
Still don't think this is getting to be quickly about survival of the fittest and we are seeing war by other means ie. economic. And of course real military conflict is in the verge of breaking out as per Iran and Venezuela

 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/24/trade-war-with-us-may-be-tipping-point-for-chinas-debt-ridden-economy.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Tue 14 May 2019, 12:25:30

We will now return to our regularly scheduled program of serial spammers.


Yep. The ETP Bozo spam for January 2019 is $26 WTI, EROI = 1.7 at the gasoline tank, and 77.4 million barrels per day of oil (crude + condensate) production.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 14 May 2019, 16:36:51

onlooker wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/24/trade-war-with-us-may-be-tipping-point-for-chinas-debt-ridden-economy.html


That article is over a year old, man. You are really horrible with your linking.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 14 May 2019, 16:50:38

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/24/trade-war-with-us-may-be-tipping-point-for-chinas-debt-ridden-economy.html


That article is over a year old, man. You are really horrible with your linking.

What has changed to annul the argument made on that "old" article?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 14 May 2019, 16:52:04

Whoops - what happened to Trump's and Dudlow's "booming" economy? "North American freight volumes decline year over year for the fifth straight month, signalling possible economic contraction." I'd say that's quite bearish..

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 14 May 2019, 18:45:30

Gundlach: Massive Amounts Of Corporate Debt… Morgan Stanley: 38% Would Be Rated “Junk” If You Use Leverage Ratio Alone
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 14 May 2019, 19:37:37

U.S. growth would have contracted without trillions in government, consumer debt: Gundlach

Water is wet
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Tue 14 May 2019, 20:29:05

"North American freight volumes decline year over year for the fifth straight month, signalling possible economic contraction." I'd say that's quite bearish


Really. Cass says there was a front running bump prior to Trumpian Tariffs. Otherwise, freight volumes look pretty normal over the last decade.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 14 May 2019, 22:09:10

onlooker wrote:What has changed to annul the argument made on that "old" article?


Because it pointed to near-term conditions that suggested doom and it didn't happen.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 14 May 2019, 23:33:27

China's retail sales growth missed estimates by the most in 7 years; growth unexpectedly fell to the lowest since 2003. If you get rid of that year's aberration, we're actually back to levels of the late 90s
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 15 May 2019, 07:03:23

March’s @OECD US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) dropped 0.2 to 98.8 (weakest since Nov ‘09, suggesting below-trend growth)...most other times historically this level was during recessions (late-60s/mid-90s exceptions)...ann. 6m RoC also weak at -2.5% (sharpest decline in 10y)


Rate cut coming
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 15 May 2019, 08:57:38

U.S. growth would have contracted without trillions in government, consumer debt: Gundlach

Water is wet


If one looks at the world growth rate from 2014 to 2017 (the World Bank has still not posted 2018??) the average increase has been 0.39%; which is less than a third of the total liquidity the CB have injected into the world's economy. Two simple conclusions can be drawn from this data; 1) cash injections are not stimulating the real economy, 2) the world's economy has been in contraction for at least the last five years.

It is what we can expect at the end of the oil age; a slowly sagging economy until it breaks.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

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