Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

by **asg70** » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 11:28:56

It will be interesting to see what the breaking point really is on Tesla's financials. It seems like they are immune from any sort of day of reckoning as they just keep taking on more losses and borrowing more money. Just think about all the capital spending that will go towards the chinese gigafactory. Think about the tooling for the Model Y, Semi, and next-gen Roadster. And they still think they can ramp up a solar business. At what point do they max out their proverbial credit cards?

All I know is when it comes to the core auto business they are going to face an onslaught of competition over the next few years, with VW group, etc... The Porsche Taycan looks like a slam dunk and the Polestar 2 also looks great. GM also still has plans that have yet to be revealed. It's going to be impossible for Tesla fanbois to keep maintaining the illusion going that Tesla is far ahead in all areas. Brand loyalty is going to erode in a big way. Tesla kind of has to dominate the market to make enough money to service its debts. If it scales back into a boutique player it will get swallowed up by their debt.

by **Outcast_Searcher** » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 12:50:56

Either the global demand for Teslas is big, or it isn't. We're going to find out in the next 6 months, I believe.

If it's not, re all the problems mentioned above, and especially the $50K Average Selling Price (ASP) claimed and STILL losses projected for 2Q, even with 90K to 100K cars delivered projected -- where are all the big, consistent profits Musk keeps projecting (starting 3Q19 this time) going to come from?

We're a LONG way from the viable $35K Tesla "for the masses", and STILL they can't make money. And of course, every quarter that passes is just more competition, which isn't cash constrained like Tesla.

Meanwhile, the stock is now trading below the year low for a while now.

I still don't buy the shorts' BK real soon now claim, but in 2019, Tesla needs to put up or shut up re significant demand being real, AND them being able to competently fill it. Oh, and at some point, turn their service operations into something less like a Three Stooges business.

by **KaiserJeep** » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 13:36:36

I still think that the major problem for ALL vendors of BEVs is Fat/Dumb/Happy consumers with ICE vehicles. This means that the Gigafactory is at less than 50% of present capacity and as a consequence of low battery volume, batteries cost too much for ANY vendor to produce an economical BEV.

My prescription is an oil shock. With the Chinese Middle Class demand for cars exploding, there is one coming, and also an uncomfortable confrontation over petroleum between the USA and China.

by **asg70** » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 14:44:46

Plantagenet wrote:
asg70 wrote:No warning that I will die of cancer due to EM radiation?

If you're worried about it, then I suggest you purchase the optional "rad-guard" lead underwear.

Rad-guard underwear.......protection for the innie and outie bits.

Cheers!

OK, I started the EV Club thread. Enjoy.

by **StarvingLion** » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 20:03:54

Beautiful sermon, Father KaiserJeep. I have come for confession. I bought a Ford F-150 with a 400hp engine and am burning $200 a day in gasoline. In other words, you are doomed.

The Tesla Mafia Scam is collapsing into the abyss (TSLA down 5% today).

by **Outcast_Searcher** » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 23:09:05

KaiserJeep wrote:I still think that the major problem for ALL vendors of BEVs is Fat/Dumb/Happy consumers with ICE vehicles. This means that the Gigafactory is at less than 50% of present capacity and as a consequence of low battery volume, batteries cost too much for ANY vendor to produce an economical BEV.

They're producing all they can. They're really terrible at ramping up production, despite all the Musk projections which repeatedly fail in the timeframe he confidently gives. Even if the demand were 5 times what it is, between their lack of cash and their incompetence, it's not like Tesla could do much about it.

Except, they wouldn't have to reduce prices, which only worsens their problem.

It will be interesting to see what happens to battery prices in 3 to 5 years once there is lots of BEV competition demanding lots of batteries. I guess we'll find out how supply-constrained the world really is re such batteries, when there is plenty of profit motive to produce them.

by **KaiserJeep** » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 06:41:10

Musk is a visionary Engineer who kinda sucks at marketing, people management, manufacturing engineering, and other things.

But ALL car companies producing BEVs are facing the same problem: batteries that cost too much and hold too little energy for inexpensive extended range vehicles.

This is a chicken and egg problem: until volume production exists and batteries are much cheaper than today, BEVs are not price competitive with ICE vehicles. They are however, better than the carbureted non-digital vehicles of even 35 years ago. In truth, had the digital revolution not already happened, we would be marveling at the Tesla vehicles, which are very impressive designs compared to every other prior BEV.

by **rockdoc123** » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 10:39:38

It will be interesting to see what happens to battery prices in 3 to 5 years once there is lots of BEV competition demanding lots of batteries. I guess we'll find out how supply-constrained the world really is re such batteries, when there is plenty of profit motive to produce them.

A more pressing matter might be the impact on the electrical grid in various cities. I know where we live that in the early evening when folks are just getting back from work, kids are home from school and energy use is generally peaking short brownouts are common and EV's have not become very popular. Can you imagine what would happen if even half of the commuters were plugging in their vehicles once the came home from work? Disaster time unless serious attention is paid to expanding the network I think.

by **StarvingLion** » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 17:21:06

Where is baha? I bet he's on a bridge about to jump.

by **EdwinSm** » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 03:05:02

rockdoc123 wrote: short brownouts are common and EV's have not become very popular.

Solution: install a powerwall when you buy your Tesla.

by **rockdoc123** » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 10:31:16

Solution: install a powerwall when you buy your Tesla.

doesn't help if everyone has an EV and is trying to charge their powerwall from the grid at the same time does it? Not everyone has the potential to use the amount of solar energy required to power one (space required for panels, right exposure etc). Also currently (at least my understanding) is that powerwalls actually require more energy than they make available which is not good.
The issue isn't storage it is network capacity and I would be surprised if there is any city in the world that is ready for full on EV utilization. It requires some serious rethinking about power supply and power utilization.

by **Outcast_Searcher** » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 12:40:44

rockdoc123 wrote:
Solution: install a powerwall when you buy your Tesla.

doesn't help if everyone has an EV and is trying to charge their powerwall from the grid at the same time does it? Not everyone has the potential to use the amount of solar energy required to power one (space required for panels, right exposure etc). Also currently (at least my understanding) is that powerwalls actually require more energy than they make available which is not good.
The issue isn't storage it is network capacity and I would be surprised if there is any city in the world that is ready for full on EV utilization. It requires some serious rethinking about power supply and power utilization.

Let's say that's all true. If the electrification of transport takes multiple decades, it's not like the grid can't be built up, smartened up, adapted, etc. It can't be done overnight (physics and money), but it can be done over time, as long as the usual human/political procrastination isn't allowed to rule the day, assuming plug-in EV's continue to rise in demand as many expect.

And of course, whether vehicle electrification proceeds apace will largely be dependent on WHETHER that ends up being practical. Will the cost decrease greatly as the proponents claim, and to what extent? Will components like batteries become better (energy density, weight, durability, charge rate, etc) as the proponents claim, and to what extent? And will the needed infrastructure, such as public charging in sufficient numbers to handle high traffic periods be properly built out, and in a timely enough manner?

We'll have to see, but I'm betting that the problems can and will be solved, if there is sufficient financial motivation to provide the demanded EV services. Just like it always has been for a long time, whether it was home electrification, the road network, the fossil fuel supply and storage infrastructure, the railroad system, the freight and public passenger flight system, and on and on. In all such things, time and evolution of the system as needed were large and necessary components of the system succeeding.

by **asg70** » Wed 01 May 2019, 13:09:13

rockdoc123 wrote:there is any city in the world that is ready for full on EV utilization.

Even fast EV adoption won't be able to take place faster than the grid can be expected to evolve to meet it. I already try to limit charging to off-peak hours (off peak meaning when people tend to NOT be using things like A/C). I'm sure there will be ways to constrain/fine/limit EV charging to off-peak if necessary.

by **asg70** » Tue 07 May 2019, 14:01:10

BTW, here's an example of autopilot failing and nutjob fanbois wagon-circling and victim-blaming. This is going to be the norm going forward. People will put their faith in autopilot, it will fail, and the driver will always be blamed. Which is all well and good until YOU are the one this happens to, then the bloom will be off the rose.

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/c ... -pilot#new

It's bad engineering brushed under the rug on the basis of "It reeks of FUD!!!"

by **Outcast_Searcher** » Wed 08 May 2019, 12:32:24

asg70 wrote:BTW, here's an example of autopilot failing and nutjob fanbois wagon-circling and victim-blaming. This is going to be the norm going forward. People will put their faith in autopilot, it will fail, and the driver will always be blamed. Which is all well and good until YOU are the one this happens to, then the bloom will be off the rose.

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/c ... -pilot#new

It's bad engineering brushed under the rug on the basis of "It reeks of FUD!!!"

Tesla fanbois infest the Tesla forums, obviously. Objective, not.

The main issue is that "Autopilot" is merely a couple of driver assistance features, and, like other more responsible car makers, Tesla should CALL it that. The highly respected Consumer Reports pointed this out in their magazine and in a letter to Tesla.

Just another example of Tesla/Musk irresponsibility. I've seem various videos of Musk driving with Autopilot and talking to a videocamera and NOT having his hands on the wheel, completely at odds with the official Tesla message. (And of course sending a message to customers with a wink, until something happens and.) 100% of the time, Tesla blames the customer 100% on any incident.)

I've read articles citing psychologists, etc. stating drivers will not consistently stay alert and ready to take over at a split-second's notice if they let the car drive for hours on end -- and thus such accidents will occur.

I think the regulatory authorities should FORCE Tesla not to use that highly misleading name for level 2 driver assistance tools. (And in fact, until such tools are CERTIFIED as full time FSD Level 5).

by **asg70** » Tue 14 May 2019, 18:06:18

And....here's the lawsuit.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2019/0 ... autopilot/

by **Plantagenet** » Tue 14 May 2019, 18:43:01

Outcast_Searcher wrote: I've seem various videos of Musk driving with Autopilot and talking to a videocamera and NOT having his hands on the wheel, completely at odds with the official Tesla message. (And of course sending a message to customers with a wink, until something happens and.) 100% of the time, Tesla blames the customer 100% on any incident.)

Thats nothing.

Recently Musk was tweeting and linking to the "sex tape" made by a couple in a Tesla while driving down the road on Autopilot. And the whole thing has gone viral now

elon-musk-courts-some-controversy-tweets-sex-video-filmed-tesla.

The next time a Tesla on Autopilot crashes and two naked bodies come flying out, we can all blame Elon Musk for promoting people having sex while driving down the road on Autopilot at 70 mph.

Cheers!

by **asg70** » Thu 16 May 2019, 16:17:44

More bad news about Autopilot.

https://qz.com/1621235/autopilot-was-en ... n-florida/

by **asg70** » Sat 18 May 2019, 22:45:35

Has everyone read the email leak where Musk says they'll run out of money in 10 months even with the new cash infusion? They are hanging on by the skin of their teeth.

https://hypebeast.com/2019/5/elon-musk- ... blems-info

by **AdamB** » Sun 19 May 2019, 01:34:30

asg70 wrote:Has everyone read the email leak where Musk says they'll run out of money in 10 months even with the new cash infusion? They are hanging on by the skin of their teeth.

https://hypebeast.com/2019/5/elon-musk- ... blems-info

I have. This is inside the timeframe of which I had planned on getting one for the wife. If this is the case, oh well. Maybe that VW EV mini-bus will be available when I am?

An interesting related question is, will someone who knows how to build cars and make actual money doing it (any of the Big 3 and at least another half dozen international manufacturers) buy them up at firesale prices that they still might be available when I am ready to get one for the wife?