[kublikhan]

It's not just the fugly factor of EVs. Another reason cited was: EVs are new and different and dealers are not up to speed on everything they need to know about EVs: tax credits for their state, how an EV differs from an ICE, etc. This issue should correct itself over time as EVs slowly become mainstream and sales personnel are properly educated about what they need to know.

The other issue cited was lower dealer profits on EVs, particularly on maintenance. One advantage EVs have over ICE vehicles is lower maintenance costs. That's good for the consumer but bad for the dealer as the dealers make more money servicing the cars than selling them. Even if the sales personnel only care about their commission and don't give a rats ass about service department revenue, their boss certainly does. And he can incentivise his sales force to push vehicles he sees as more profitable for his dealership.

While the rising wave of vehicular electrification may be good news for proponents of clean air, it has dealerships worried about the future of the bottom line. Currently, as much as 44 percent of dealer income can be generated by the service department. As an industry, vehicle service generates an estimated $247 billion per year.

Service is so profitable, in fact, that dealerships will often accept a lower initial vehicle price for future potential revenue. Customers can haggle over heated seats or an upgraded stereo, but hourly labor charges and parts costs are non-negotiable.

Electric propulsion systems are mechanically much simpler than internal combustion ones, however, and will require fewer service visits. “No doubt service revenue will go down, because EVs contain about 40 percent fewer parts.” With no transmissions to maintain, no mufflers to replace, and no engine oil to be changed, future revenue from EV service will depend on brakes, tires, wheel alignments, and battery refurbishment.

Electric vehicles threaten dealership profits

And these are not just US problems. The same issues were found in a similar study in Europe:

As most consumers do not have pre-existing knowledge of electric vehicles (EVs), and current market conditions favour petrol and diesel vehicles, car dealership experiences may strongly influence EV purchasing decisions. Here, we show that car dealerships pose a significant barrier at the point of sale due to a perceived lack of business case viability in relation to petrol and diesel vehicles. In 126 shopping experiences at 82 car dealerships across Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, we find that dealers were dismissive of EVs, misinformed shoppers on vehicle specifications, omitted EVs from the sales conversation and strongly oriented customers towards petrol and diesel vehicle options. Dealers' technological orientation, willingness to sell and displayed knowledge of EVs were the main contributors to likely purchase intentions. These findings combined with expert interviews suggest that government and industry signalling affect sales strategies and purchasing trends.

Managers, industry experts and dealers believe the lack of willingness to promote and sell EVs derives from their low profitability, lack of EV models on site, lack of knowledge and competence about EV specifications, and that EVs take longer to sell. Given these factors, salespeople opt for the known and easier-to-sell conventional cars. Moreover, EVs were seen to negatively affect dealer profitability, not only from an initial investment perspective (setting up charging infrastructure and additional personnel training), but also due to a decreased need for maintenance and other services and consequent reductions in dealer revenue. These barriers resemble those in North America, in particular the lack of availability of EV models, longer lead times and willingness of salespeople to sell the technology.

Dismissive and deceptive car dealerships create barriers to electric vehicle adoption at the point of sale

These are areas where Tesla has a lead over traditional car makers:
1. Teslas are not fugly.
2. Tesla direct sales bypass both the dealer information problem and their disincentive to sell EVs because of their lack of service revenue and other reasons.
If only Tesla could actually make money selling EVs......

[Outcast_Searcher]

6. EVs have incompetent and/or openly hostile dealers selling them

...

I think most of the anti-sell is coming from GM and Nissan and a big part of that is that its EVs just aren't that appealing. The Volt sort of was early on but the Bolt is homely and the original Leaf was even worse. Make a decent car and dealers will embrace it.

When you consider HEV's, I think the problem is a lot bigger than just GM and Nissan. I love Toyota, generally, as a car company. Honda also. But BOTH are abysmal in terms of the way their dealerships (don't) stock a reasonable supply of HEV's on their lots, at least in the central KY area where I live.

You'll consistently find scores to literally hundreds of the ICE form of the Camry or Accord, for example (or other popular ICE's like the Corolla or Civic). And maybe 3 HEV Camry or Accords on the same lots, if you're lucky. And not even in a good variety of trims, much less colors, etc. And the dealers aren't incented to seriously dicker on those the way they will on the ICE's. The Prius isn't as bad, but for such a high volume vehicle, it's not like the volumes of those on the lots were impressive. (And this includes from years ago when the Prius sold a lot more than it does recently, last time I checked).

I don't know if it's sales staff training, mind-set, profit margins, expected volumes, or what -- it's not open hostility that I find to be the problem as much as outright dealer disinterest. But that filters back to the customer. Next time around I want an EV of some sort. But I don't want to have to over pay by $thousands, nor have to take a car which I really don't want re options, pricing, trim level, etc.

And I think the car companies have to be at least generally aware of this, and if they REALLY wanted to sell a lot of HEV's, I think they would offer dealers some kind of incentive, at least for awhile, now that the current generation of HEV's is getting to be seriously good in terms of price/performance, competence, value, etc.

Whether that happens for both HEV's and BEV's/PHEV's, from dealers who sell ICE's, remains to be seen.

[Outcast_Searcher]

These are areas where Tesla has a lead over traditional car makers:
1. Teslas are not fugly.
2. Tesla direct sales bypass both the dealer information problem and their disincentive to sell EVs because of their lack of service revenue and other reasons.
If only Tesla could actually make money selling EVs......

But this cuts both ways, IMO.

Fugly is in the eye of the beholder. Those god-awful wheels on the supposed $35K Tesla Model 3 are a pure no-go for me. (People like different things -- for me, wheels are important.) And of course Tesla being Tesla, getting the wheel upgrade is expensive. Unlike many competitors where you can switch to another trim level, upgrade a whole list of things, and get nice alloy wheels as one of the benefits -- sometimes for much less than Tesla wants just for decent wheels. I'll cite my 2017 Toyota Camry SE vs. the LE as an example where I paid specific attention to this. I wanted alloy wheels, a sunroof, and aside from that -- cheap. And that's exactly what I got with zero hassle and no wait.

Re dealerships, as a Tesla observer, I think the lack of dealerships may well help Tesla's bottom line (which is horrendous, anyway). But it sure doesn't help the customer experience. Dealerships WANT repeat sales and to do service on customer cars. Thus they are directly incented to take reasonable care of the customer. And in my experience, they do. The widespread, and many-sourced reports of horrendous Tesla customer service, especially on servicing the vehicles, makes Tesla a complete no-go for me, even IF there were a local sales and service center (but there's not even one in my state). Oh, and Tesla doesn't authorize competitiors, generally to do warranty work on their cars, trapping the customer into the bad experience. (I HAD all the bad experience with cars I want before I found Toyota, thank you very much). I think if there were a local Tesla dealer, they would at least be trying to mitigate the issues, by trying to stock parts, for example. And maybe using some sort of alternative competitive parts with full disclosure and no wait, if they can - to improve wait times, for another example.

The internet helps people get information. I'm not convinced Tesla can overcome its service issues and fool the middle class, given that the internet will tell the tale if service remains bad. In the end, Tesla may NEED dealerships. Time will tell. (And I do acknowledge that I don't like the effort I have to go to to ensure I don't get screwed when buying a car at a dealership. Not sure I see an advantage Tesla has there, as they just charge what they want, however.)

[Plantagenet]

Hi Plant,
I notice you still assume people will be buying cars as if that is an indefinite matter? Have you read the stuff on automation and how that could impact the car industry?

I've read some of it. I've also read that robo taxis are 10+ years away from being ready for release into the market.

Robot-EV's are expensive to buy, but could be REALLY cheap to hire if we share that capital cost amongst the community. They could be so cheap to hire that many people simply stop buying cars. And many companies will have a variety of vehicles you can hire.

I guess. I read a science fiction story like that once.

However, we are required by the nature of reality to live in the physical world, not in an imaginary place.


Did you call for a taxi?

[Plantagenet]

These are areas where Tesla has a lead over traditional car makers:
1. Teslas are not fugly.
2. Tesla direct sales bypass both the dealer information problem and their disincentive to sell EVs because of their lack of service revenue and other reasons.

1. Most Americans think sedans are ugly and impractical. People want SUVs and pickup trucks these days.

2. And the lack of local dealerships is a drawback, IMHO. I see lower down in your post you agree with this important point.

People want to see the car and kick the tires before they buy it. Its just human nature. Teslas weren't "real" to me until I visited the lower 48 and went into a Tesla store in San Francisco and checked it out for myself. I'm sure many people feel the same way....they want to see and test drive a car before they spend huge amounts of money on it, and there are large areas of the US (and the world) where the lack of dealers with cars is a buzzkill.

3. And that brings me back to the third big problem with Teslas. They are more expensive then ICE vehicles. Money is a important consideration for most people, and the prospect of buying a Tesla and spending more money for less car is a deal killer for many people.

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

VW now taking deposits on an EV hatchback----designed to be the successor to the iconic VW beetle.

vw-introduces-ev-hatchback-34-billion-plan-take-down-tesla

VW has built a nice looking vehicle, and its cheaper and better then the Tesla model S. And, best of all, its not a sedan!!!


VW beetle reincarnated as an EV?

[Outcast_Searcher]

VW has built a nice looking vehicle, and its cheaper and better then the Tesla model S. And, best of all, its not a sedan!!!

I'm no Tesla fan, given the quality and service vs. hype reality. Oh, and the constant large annual losses, despite Musk promises.

And I think the Model Y announcement was a disaster, since instead of an actual SUV, as had been promised, it is just a slightly larger Model 3 sedan, which will mostly just cannibalize Model 3 sales, instead of being the car to take Tesla to the "next level" as Musk had claimed.

But I don't get the comment about the VW ID3 being "better" than the Model S. Cheaper certainly. And 20+ models by 2025 based on it, to give customers lots of choice is GREAT news. Different certainly.

But for range, acceleration, sportiness, etc. the Model S clearly trumps the ID3 -- the ID3 is clearly more along the lines of a Bolt or a Kona in general performance. Nothing wrong with that, but I don't see most reasonably objective observers agreeing that means it's "better" than a Model S. Especially when you get to the high-end trim levels for the S.

And if the ID3 is going to be nearly 40,000 Euros for the middle range version, that's disappointing. Earlier claims I'd seen had it more like under $30,000 with the federal tax credit when it hits the US. Maybe that's for the 180 mile version, but that certainly won't be a high performance car.

Of course, at the end of the day, service, availability, dealer support, etc. will be key. If VW takes good care of its customers and makes getting the cars convenient over a wide area in Europe, and then the US, it will massively trump Tesla as far as having a broad appeal to people practical enough to care about the ownership experience over time.

[eclipse]

If you want something more recent:

JAN. 14, 2019 - After a groundbreaking year, CNU is gearing up for more action and progress in the next 12 months and beyond. CNU has inspired change. Our ideas and approaches have been adopted and implemented by allied (and not-so-allied) organizations, state and local governments, and urban design and development professionals throughout the U.S. and abroad.

Our goal is to reach 42,000 local governments with zoning authority in five years. Working collaboratively with state partners on the development and dissemination of code reforms, we have begun creating state-specific guides that will enable us to reach this goal.

Looking internationally, in April, CNU was selected as an official Urban Design Provider to the Chinese government. Chinese cities can now request CNU training and design assistance from the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Affairs Experts (SAFEA).

Finally, we launched a project database that features New Urbanist Projects from the US and around the world. While far from complete, in 2019, we will continue to add and map projects.

2018 in review and a preview of 2019

June 5, 2018 - As our current demographics are changing, we are seeing a shift in housing priorities due to the two largest generations in American history, the baby boomers (born 1946-1964) and the millennials (born 1979-1996). Many baby boomers are now approaching retirement and downsizing since they no longer live with their children. This makes walkable neighborhoods more appealing to them, located in the denser areas like city and suburban town centers. Millennials also prefer these areas for the way of life and because it easy not to own a car. The Realtor’s survey found that currently only 12 percent of future homeowners favor houses in the “suburban-fringe” that rely completely on driving. By contrast, the most expensive housing on the market today is found in high-density and pedestrian friendly neighborhoods.

Walkable Infrastructure in Cities

April 15, 2019 - It’s spring home-buying season and thousands of prospective buyers have taken to California’s housing market. Although many factors will influence their purchasing decisions, new data from Trulia indicates that the percentage of Los Angeles homebuyers searching for homes near public transportation is on the rise. According to the company’s data, home listings in Los Angeles that specify public transportation have steadily increased in the last few years. “The share of listings in L.A. including public transit keywords such as ‘metro’ or ‘subway’ has doubled since 2013,” Trulia writes. “These listings are especially common along L.A.’s Metro rail lines, which are the focus of a $120 billion public transit expansion.” Additionally, in all but the most-expensive market segment, homes boasting of nearby transit access are selling for about 4.2% more than their counterparts.

Los Angeles is infamous for its sprawl and car culture. But the city is actively promoting alternatives to private automobiles, and mobility in and around L.A. has changed dramatically in recent years,” Trulia writes. “Santa Monica is actively experimenting with electric scooters in its Shared Mobility Pilot Program, and L.A. taxpayers have pledged $120 billion toward expanding public transit.”

This is how public transportation is transforming California's housing market

Real Estate Trend #3: The Majority of Home Buyers Are Millennials
What More Millennial Home Buyers Means for Sellers
Location. A lot of millennials are looking for homes in 18-hour cities like Nashville, Tennessee, or Austin, Texas, that offer big city life at a more affordable cost of living. If your home is in a walkable area with access to public transit, expect millennials to come knocking at your door.

2019 Real Estate Trends: What You Need to Know

Thanks Khan! Love your work here.

[eclipse]

t if robot-taxis just drop you in a loading bay, then maybe it can become a potential bridging technology. The real battle? Convincing law makers and town planners that we need proper public transport supporting the various flavours of ecocity and New Urban design. Convincing people that suburbia isn't the western dream. That cars don't represent freedom, but entrapment. That's the challenge.

Wouldn't it save a lot of time and money just to move directly to building the needed public transport systems (light rail, high speed rail, etc.) rather then wasting trillions of dollars and untold years on this fantasy of "robo-taxis?"

We know how to build light rail and other kinds of EV public transit now. Why waste years waiting for robo taxis to be built first?


I'd rather have a real light rail system now then an imaginary robo taxi system later.

YUP! Totally. But I'm just keeping my eyes open to all possibilities, and one of them is the robot-taxi security blanket that eventually convinces people to dump their own cars, and also creates the opportunities for loading bays. Remember the 7 minute walk rule, and that driving to a town square ruins it? If you live under 7 minutes away you'll walk, but over 7 minutes and you'll drive — and that requires carparks — and that extra space throws everything out. I see robot-taxi loading bays as a stepping stone between suburbia and town squares — as long as the relevant local town planning authorities figure it out.

[asg70]

VW now taking deposits on an EV hatchback----designed to be the successor to the iconic VW beetle.

vw-introduces-ev-hatchback-34-billion-plan-take-down-tesla

Wrong again as always. Successor to the Rabbit/Golf. One need only look at the body shell to know that.

VW has built a nice looking vehicle, and its cheaper and better then the Tesla model S. And, best of all, its not a sedan!!!

Not a sedan as in no trunk, but not an SUV either. That's why VW isn't aiming to fast-track this for the US. Instead it's building that plant in TN to build the ID Crozz (CUV).

[Plantagenet]

VW now taking deposits on an EV hatchback----designed to be the successor to the iconic VW beetle.

vw-introduces-ev-hatchback-34-billion-plan-take-down-tesla

Wrong again as always. Successor to the Rabbit/Golf. One need only look at the body shell to know that.

Actually, you're wrong again as always.

If you read the news story you'll see that VW believes that their new EV can become as popular and as beloved and as successful as the iconic and classic VW beetle. People still rave about how great the VW beetle was.

The VW Rabbit, by comparison, was not nearly as successful. You don't see a lot of people raving over the VW Rabbit/Golf. Except you, of course.

Get it now?

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

I don't get the comment about the VW ID3 being "better" than the Model S. Cheaper certainly.

Its my personal opinion that the VW EV will be a better buy then the entry level Tesla and I believe VW will sell many more VW ID3s then Tesla sells Model S cars.

The base price for a 2019 model S is $76,000, while the base price for the VW ID3 is projected to be under 30,000 Euros, which equates to roughly $35-$40,000, or about half of the Model S.

This means the Tesla model S will be roughy twice as expensive as the VW ID3, even though both cars will have similar range and other characteristics. This why VW considers the VW ID3 to be a "Tesla killer." Its clearly a much better value.

And I agree with VW. Given the huge price disparity in favor the VW EV, I'd say its a better buy for someone looking for an entry level EV.

I don't think Tesla can compete with VW in the entry EV space. Their only hope to survive, IMHO, is to abandon their dreams of competing in the entry level space and go back to being solely a luxury sports car manufacturer.

Cheers!

[asg70]

If you read the news story you'll see that VW believes that their new EV can become as popular and as beloved and as successful as the iconic and classic VW beetle.

VW already has a modern beetle. It also has a Golf. The ID 3 is a next gen Golf...PERIOD. You can speak figuratively about it being a beetle in the same way the Model 3 was seen as the EV equivalent of the Model T, but that's about it. The ID Buzz is meant to evoke the air-cooled era, but not the ID 3.

The VW Rabbit, by comparison, was not nearly as successful.

It was hugely successful. In fact it ushered in the modern VW era when the Beetle couldn't keep up with safety/emissions standards. It also spawned dozens of imitators and really created and popularized the hatchback segment (around the same time as Honda with the Civic). Imitators were the Chevette, the Dodge Omni, etc...

From Wikipedia:

Historically, the Golf is Volkswagen's best-selling model and is among the world's top three best-selling models, with more than 30 million built by June 2013.

Presumably that includes all Golf generations up until that point. The Beetle sold approximately 21 million. Don't expect the ID range to go mostly unchanged for decades the way the Beetle did. The MEB platform is modular but technology changes too rapidly for the Beetle story to ever be duplicated.

You're really out of your element if you want to talk about cars. Maybe go back to fearmongering over EVs causing cancer.

Other than these quibbles, I DO AGREE that VW is poised to dethrone Tesla and become the top EV brand.

[Plantagenet]

The ID 3 is a next gen Golf...PERIOD.

Thats not how VW is describing it.......PERIOD.

the Model 3 was seen as the EV equivalent of the Model T

Maybe in your mind, but I don't think any rational person ever saw it that way. For instance, the Model T was priced at the rock bottom of the car market. The Model 3 doesn't target that segment of the market at all.

-------------------------

OK...enough of your attempts to derail the thread. Lets get back to the news.

VW announced today that they had received 10,000 orders for the new VW EV ID.3 in the first 24 hours since their announcement. Its only available in the EU so far, by the way.

vw-id-3-electric-hatchback-10000-preorders-24-hours

So far the VW EV ID.3 is off to a grand start.

CHEERS!

[asg70]

Maybe in your mind, but I don't think any rational person ever saw it that way.

Go review the hype about the Model 3 back during the reveal of 2016. That was, of course, assuming a "compelling" base vehicle with the full suite of tax credits. That's not how it turned out in the end.

Anyway, we could go in circles arguing this minutiae forever if you like. So while you whine about the thread being derailed, remember it takes two to tango.

As far as the ID3 being a success, while 10K reservations are nice, they're a far cry from the 300K+ reservations that came in for the Model 3.

[Plantagenet]

Go review the hype about the Model 3 back during the reveal of 2016....

No thanks.

I have no interest in arguing with you over the now disproven hype Tesla put out to promote their car in 2016.

I'm much more interested in discussing the interesting things happening right now in the real world.

I think the VW ID.3 EV is going to be a big success for VW. The EU, with its electric HSR network. electric urban tram networks, and now a viable EV "city car" coming on the market, is leading the way into the post carbon world. Its fascinating to see it happening.

CHEERS!

[AdamB]

People want to see the car and kick the tires before they buy it. Its just human nature. Teslas weren't "real" to me until I visited the lower 48 and went into a Tesla store in San Francisco and checked it out for myself. I'm sure many people feel the same way....they want to see and test drive a car before they spend huge amounts of money on it, and there are large areas of the US (and the world) where the lack of dealers with cars is a buzzkill.

Indeed. While you were there, did you test drive one so you would know the difference between electric and ICE power?

[Plantagenet]

did you test drive one

No. I knew I wasn't going to buy one. They aren't very practical in Alaska where I live.

.... the difference between electric and ICE power?

If you don't understand the difference between electric and ICE engines, then I suggest you educate yourself. EVs are going to become increasingly important in the coming years.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

did you test drive one

No. I knew I wasn't going to buy one. They aren't very practical in Alaska where I live.

I recently read an interesting article on how demand is this ephemeral thing, difficult to measure until it converts to consumption and a given unit of supply is achieved. The example they were using was Tesla, that because it isn't heavily advertised, people didn't know they should even have an interest, until a friend told them about them, or they decided to try one out on their own, basically they needed to experience it. Upon experiencing it, this unknown ephemeral demand drove another unit of supply. The argument being that the difference between what people are used to and expect from their cars is something differnet than what an electric drives like.

After having driven my first all electric (as compared to first the Gen I hybrids and then the pluggable hybrids I have used since then) I can see how this point works. It surprised me, the difference between a purpose built electric and a pluggable hybrid. And now I understand how Tesla can sell so many of the things. Doesn't hurt that after the wife got her drive in a Model S, she has decided that at least a Model 3 will be our next, and perhaps final, automobile.

.... the difference between electric and ICE power?

If you don't understand the difference between electric and ICE engines, then I suggest you educate yourself. EVs are going to become increasingly important in the coming years.

Cheers!

Unlike those who deliberately choose to remain ignorant of the difference, I am quite familiar with it, having driven both. If you want to cherry pick meaning from a sentence, you need to crop it a little more to make it look like I don't know the difference between the drive trains, as opposed to how they power the cars. More cherry picking, less actual discussion! That's the Plant we all know and love!

[Plantagenet]

... after the wife got her drive in a Model S, she has decided that at least a Model 3 will be our next, and perhaps final, automobile.

You are wise to let your wife make these important decisions for you.

Cheers!