Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Sun 05 May 2019, 11:42:17

I think Trump rightly criticized the Fed for raising rates every quarter since he was elected. This made it appear as if the Fed was trying to stifle any growth. But that doesn't mean we need a 1% cut in interest rate. With unemployment being nil and growth in the 2-3% range, there is no reason to cut rates and the Fed well understands that.

Of course Trump wants to be re-elected. He doesn't need a rate cut to do that.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12404
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 05 May 2019, 11:58:17

Cog wrote:I think Trump rightly criticized the Fed for raising rates every quarter since he was elected. This made it appear as if the Fed was trying to stifle any growth. But that doesn't mean we need a 1% cut in interest rate. With unemployment being nil and growth in the 2-3% range, there is no reason to cut rates and the Fed well understands that.

Of course Trump wants to be re-elected. He doesn't need a rate cut to do that.

Fair enough. I just think that, sometimes, the places where all of this doomer hype comes from are political. The world is mired in conspiracy theory today. It had a big impact upon Trump's election in the first place. I had this friend who used to listen to Alex Jones like he was God. This friend even said to me once that Alex Jones was the most honest person out there, and that he wasn't getting rich off of the public service he was doing. The way that the public perceives these things is important. It's probably more important than the truth, when it comes to elections.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2656
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Stopped at the border.

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 05 May 2019, 12:12:01

The trade war deepens. The tax cut did offset some of the effects by the tariffs. A rate cut and the end of QT might be needed to offset the effects by increasing tariffs.

The art of the deal: if the opponent doesn't fold, then raise the ante...

The markets will turn volatile tomorrow?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/trump-s ... riday.html
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1450
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Sun 05 May 2019, 14:22:10

The tax cut was necessary as individuals and corporations were over-taxed. Our corporate rate was one of the higher ones in the world. What corporations and the market likes most is certainty in tax policy and the regulatory environment. Trump has given them that and the economy is roaring.

Tariffs are a negotiating tool and were never supposed to have any other effect other than to result in fairer trade deals. China needs the deal more than we do. They will bend the knee in due time. They won't get everything they want and neither will we.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12404
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 05 May 2019, 14:42:29

Hedge Fund CIO: "In The Next Recession Rates Will Quickly Fall 100bps. Then Go To Zero. Then We Do MMT"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... ro-then-we

It’s coming quickly
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4802
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Sun 05 May 2019, 15:31:07

I suppose when you doomers can accurately predict the next recession, even though no economist can do so, we will see if this rate prediction has any validity.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12404
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Sun 05 May 2019, 18:20:58

US stock market is apt to be a bit rocky Monday morning. Trump announced today that he would increase existing tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 25% by this Friday if there was no trade deal. He is also threatening tariffs on additional Chinese exports. Now it seems he has done this before and the deadline was extended but the markets didn't like it much.

I thought I would preempt the doomers who think this signifies the end of the world and a stock market crash.

More at link:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/traders ... hreat.html
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12404
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 05 May 2019, 20:32:07

Black swan event?
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4802
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 05 May 2019, 22:15:52

Armageddon wrote:Black swan event?


Must be. They always are...right?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4579
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 05 May 2019, 22:43:31

evilgenius wrote:Fair enough. I just think that, sometimes, the places where all of this doomer hype comes from are political....


Rarely do you offer up a post that doesn't hit the nail right on the head. You are a wise man in a sea of fools.
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND HE WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HIS POSTS HAVE NO CREDIBILITY AND HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2509
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 05 May 2019, 23:41:59

Armageddon wrote:Black swan event?


More like an Orange hair tweet event....
Chinese stock markets tumbled on Monday after US President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on China, putting a trade deal in doubt....

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 3.7%, while the Shanghai Composite plunged 5.3%.

US stock futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48173020

It will be interesting to see if this is a one day fall, or whether this is the trigger for a longer down turn in the stock markets. Unfortunately the timing of a crash can only be seen in the rear view mirror (rather like peak oil production, one data point does not make a trend).
EdwinSm
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 483
Joined: Thu 07 Jun 2012, 03:23:59

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 06 May 2019, 03:29:45

China's Nasdaq is down 8 percent. This year's bear market rally gains will now be wiped out in days.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D53QYUqXsAA ... ame=medium
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1450
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Mon 06 May 2019, 04:27:53

I see the doomers have arrived to tell us about market direction. LOL
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12404
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 06 May 2019, 07:42:23

It’s nothing a rate cut won’t solve. It’d be a 1000 point swing.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4802
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 06 May 2019, 09:18:12

Chinese stock markets fell 5-8 percent today in a media blackout.
U.S stock markets are down 1 percent under media light.

Viva America!

China has until Friday to sign the deal...
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1450
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 06 May 2019, 10:23:46

Chinese stock markets fell 5-8 percent today in a media blackout.
U.S stock markets are down 1 percent under media light.


as usual report everything without any context. :roll:

Trump threatened to increase China tarriffs as a means to push the trade deal forward in his favor. The market responded accordingly given they had been largely ignoring the trade agreement discussions over the past two months as the Whitehouse was reporting "continuing progress". That is why markets took a hit today. At this point the Dow has recovered about 50% from it's initial fall. In short nothing to do with some actual economic failure somewhere and all to do with perceived risk on trade negotiations.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6778
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 06 May 2019, 11:19:55

China is post peak oil and coal. China borrows dollars. Buys energy and commodities. Exports industrially produced products for dollars. Pays it's dollar debts.

The trade deal is not going to happen. China has nothing to offer.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1450
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 06 May 2019, 12:54:46

The trade deal is not going to happen. China has nothing to offer.


Yeah, right. That is why the US has been negotiating with them for nearly a year. That makes a lot of sense....not. :roll:
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6778
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 06 May 2019, 13:08:03

China can't print dollars. No one accepts yuan. China can't create a USD 18 Trillion external debt like the U.S. China is just the one bowl of rice workforce.

The U.S either prints the dollars and buys Chinese goods it needs...or... produce those goods it self.

The U S is basically net energy depleted and can't produce the goods it needs.

The global economy is a beautiful scam. Enjoy.

You want a trade deal with Europe? We are even more depleted than China and the U.S.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1450
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Mon 06 May 2019, 13:26:19

The U S is basically net energy depleted and can't produce the goods it needs.


Ha! Ha! Yoshua is one of the last of the ETP Bozo's Side Car Clowns.

Image
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38152
marmico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 957
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests