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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 01 May 2019, 12:57:38

Outcast_Searcher wrote:As I've been saying, anyone taking a reasonably objective view of the economy sees lots of mixed signs, despite the plethora of cherry picking doomer stats and calls on this thread.

Credible economists look at trends, and acknowledge when the overall trend is strengthening. For example:
Friday’s report of first quarter growth should show economy is strong and no recession in sight

Freezing weather and the government shutdown slowed the economy early in the first quarter, but it seems to have bounced back and now economists expect to see growth of about 2.5%.
The lack of data early in the quarter, due to the five-week shutdown, also led to concerns that the economy was seriously slowing and led to a spotty view of the U.S. economy and recession fears.
First-quarter GDP, though backward looking, is being widely watched now as a barometer for the economy’s health going into the second quarter.

...

Stanley said he expects that he expects growth of about 3.3% for the second quarter. He expects to see a comeback by the consumer, after sluggish spending growth in the first quarter. “Given the blowout retail sales we saw in March, the stage was set for a nice bounce back in Q2,” he said. He also said there are signs business spending will also pick up in the second quarter.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/fridays ... sight.html



That’s what everybody said in 2007
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 01 May 2019, 13:10:02

Very weak construction spending and ISM report, where the new orders to inventories ratio slipped below 1.0 for first time since August 2012. ADP print doesn't bode well for productivity, that's for sure.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 01 May 2019, 15:31:20

Nasdaq has now officially broken down from its rising wedge.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5gfBCUWAAI ... name=large
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 01 May 2019, 15:33:48

Powell: I see no need to move the rate in either direction.
Market: We will give you a reason.

Sven Henrich
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 01 May 2019, 16:34:49

Recovery? New York City Homelessness Is The Worst It Has Ever Been

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... -ever-been


Heard lots of places in California are like this too. Seattle and Portland too.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Wed 01 May 2019, 17:04:42

You tend to collect homeless people if you make it easier for them to survive there.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 01 May 2019, 19:17:47

Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q estimate 1.2%.


GDP will be negative by Q4. Rate cuts and QE are on the horizon.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 01 May 2019, 21:16:51

Global Semiconductor Sales Collapse 15.5% In 1Q19, Says SI
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 02 May 2019, 07:47:04

Credit Card Charge-Offs Hit The Highest Level In Nearly 7 Years And Credit Card Delinquencies Hit The Highest Level In Almost 8 Years


http://themostimportantnews.com/archive ... st-8-years


More signs this is 2007 all over again, but with 2x the debt.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 02 May 2019, 09:14:44

The WTI has broken down from its rising wedge. A new oil price crash has started. The oil price crashes are coming quiet often now. There is volatility in the markets again.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 02 May 2019, 10:17:54

The WTI has broken down from its rising wedge. A new oil price crash has started. The oil price crashes are coming quiet often now. There is volatility in the markets again.


Oil prices fell due to higher production and higher inventories in the US as reported on Wednesday. US production keeps increasing at a rate that is outpacing demand. Oil traders are worried that it will outpace the amount of oil that will be taken off the market as Iran oil trading allowances are effectively shut down and that OPEC has shown no signs of actually decreasing supply.

Anyone can look at a price chart and claim any possible notion of what is going on.....if they don't bother to look at the reasons for movement in those prices and understand those in terms of the overall economic picture then the term "moron" is applicable to my mind.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Thu 02 May 2019, 10:22:50

Credit Card Charge-Offs Hit The Highest Level In Nearly 7 Years And Credit Card Delinquencies Hit The Highest Level In Almost 8 Years


Tit for tat.

•Outstanding 90-day [mortgage] delinquencies have now fallen below 500,000 for the first time in more than 12 years
https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-kn ... gage-data/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 02 May 2019, 11:24:21

April US Auto Sales Crash 6.1%, Worst Slide In 8 Years | Zero Hedge
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 02 May 2019, 11:35:00

I salute you sir!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 02 May 2019, 12:10:46

Yoshua wrote:I salute you sir!



We are just getting started. Fall is when the fireworks will begin. Make sure you get a good seat.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 02 May 2019, 12:23:56

Trump and the Dems are talking about a USD 2 Trillion infrastructure project. The banks will create the money and the government will add it to the national debt. By doing so they will create demand and raise the oil price.

The energy for the infrastructure project must be taken from somewhere else. It won't be from the U.S economy. It will be taken from some shithole nation where there will be riots. Fine, who cares.

The U.S is the the most powerful military power in the world. The Fed owns the global reserve currency and has the biggest bazooka in the world. U.S corporations are the biggest and most powerful in the world. So the U.S is not manipulating the markets. The U.S just takes its rightful share.

Saudi Arabia might produce the last barrel of oil...but the U.S will consume it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 02 May 2019, 12:41:12

Yoshua wrote:Trump and the Dems are talking about a USD 2 Trillion infrastructure project. The banks will create the money and the government will add it to the national debt. By doing so they will create demand and raise the oil price.

The energy for the infrastructure project must be taken from somewhere else. It won't be from the U.S economy. It will be taken from some shithole nation where there will be riots. Fine, who cares.

The U.S is the the most powerful military power in the world. The Fed owns the global reserve currency and has the biggest bazooka in the world. U.S corporations are the biggest and most powerful in the world. So the U.S is not manipulating the markets. The U.S just takes its rightful share.

Saudi Arabia might produce the last barrel of oil...but the U.S will consume it.




The US is monetizing its debt because nobody wants it. That’s one of the last stages of a currency collapse. Hyperinflation will occur next. Trump is begging for rate cuts and QE. He knows what’s coming.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 May 2019, 13:26:36

Armageddon wrote:April US Auto Sales Crash 6.1%, Worst Slide In 8 Years | Zero Hedge

Ah yes. More predictive "insight" by zerohedge. :roll:

For doomers, if economic indicators aren't showing constant new record highs, it's an economic disaster.

If cherry picking and trying to project an image of doom is your goal, that sort of works until your track record turns out to be near zero.

In the mean time, in the real world, when you're not cherry picking, as I and others have repeatedly shown, the indicators are definitely mixed.

That yield curve you're so panicked about is leveling out, BTW. I noticed that this week the 2 year is below the 5 year, and the 3 month to 2 year curve is looking quite flat, though still inverted.

As many real economists (i.e. with degrees and careers in economics) are saying, the recession worries from the 4Q downturn are now looking less concerning overall.

Not that zerohedge or fast crash doomer sites would ever talk about such things. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 02 May 2019, 13:30:40

The USD is needed for global trade. No one will accept yuan, ruble, peso. The global banks use Eurodollars (offshore dollars) for trade. The global elite counts their wealth in Eurodollars.

Gold, silver, oil, even bitcoin are priced in dollars.

The dollar exists in low inflation nirvana. Exploit it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 May 2019, 13:33:51

Armageddon wrote:The US is monetizing its debt because nobody wants it. That’s one of the last stages of a currency collapse. Hyperinflation will occur next. Trump is begging for rate cuts and QE. He knows what’s coming.

Ah, the nonsense is strong in you.

First, if no one "wanted" US debt, no one would buy any US Treasuries at ANY price. Given interest rates, the blatant idiocy of that comment (which I highlighted in blue) should be rather obvious.

Presidents ALWAYS try to jawbone the FED and want growth to be higher in THEIR presidency. This is the same pattern that has been occurring since I started noticing such discussions in the news in the 70's.

Pretending this is new or some special problem NOW is just another example of your complete lack of credibility.

Hint: It's not that he knows "what's coming" any more than you do. It's that he wants to be able to point to strong economic numbers, in his own political interest. (He's still acting like he thinks he can win the 2020 election).

So if you claim "hyperinflation will be next" for several decades in a row and inflation gets to double digits at some point, do you claim you were right? :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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