[Revi]

If you read Gail Tverberg's post you'll see that the only way to get that oil out of Venezuela profitably is to impoverish the people that live there, kinda like we did in Iraq.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/03/20/a ... -problems/

[Newfie]

Excellent article. It reminds me of a book I read recently about how economies collapse and it follows a similar trajectory. Rise on the strength of manufactured goods, trade or some other tangible. Transfer to a “service economy”, neglect the base, over promise to the populace.

Kinda sounds close to home and familiar.

[Revi]

Excellent article. It reminds me of a book I read recently about how economies collapse and it follows a similar trajectory. Rise on the strength of manufactured goods, trade or some other tangible. Transfer to a “service economy”, neglect the base, over promise to the populace.

Kinda sounds close to home and familiar.

That's what got me. I couldn't help but compare their situation with ours. Venezuela was a country that was doing very well in the 80's and even early 90's. Then it changed, and it became one of those places that are in trouble.

We are one of those countries that's lived high on the hog for quite a while.

[Newfie]

Revi,

Unfortunately there are strong forces at work within both parties that would lead us down the same path.

The USA needs some clear thinking leaders and I see none.

[KaiserJeep]

The USA has done fine for at least two centuries with some pretty mediocre presidents. All that is necessary is that we celebrate Capitalism and avoid the evils of the Marxism/Socialism/Communism that brought so many countries down, most recently Venezuela.

So start by avoiding electing as many Democrats as possible. No, they are not full-on Socialists yet, but they are clearly, cluelessly moving in that direction.

[Revi]

The USA has done fine for at least two centuries with some pretty mediocre presidents. All that is necessary is that we celebrate Capitalism and avoid the evils of the Marxism/Socialism/Communism that brought so many countries down, most recently Venezuela.

So start by avoiding electing as many Democrats as possible. No, they are not full-on Socialists yet, but they are clearly, cluelessly moving in that direction.

Nice little plug for your party! We both know that capitalism is an artifact of the industrial revolution ( and started with the expansion of European powers a little before that). It's just a system to reward those who made more stuff happen with what we had. What kind of system will we have as we begin to slide down the backside of the peak? It may have to be a system that keeps key parts of the infrastructure going. I don't know what political party that would be, but it's not even in the minds of most of the people who are out there now.

[Cog]

The backside of peak will generate tyrants of all political persuasions.

[Revi]

The backside of peak will generate tyrants of all political persuasions.

We definitely agree on that Cog!

[evilgenius]

Was it Communism that put Venezuela in this position, or $30 oil in the wake of the last decade's financial crisis? I think there's a good argument for the latter. This Marxist thing that keeps coming up is a sort of misnomer. Marx critiqued Capitalism, but he never put forward a description of what to do instead. He just, basically, said that it was full of certain holes, and ripe for replacement through a worker led revolution. He didn't describe how an economy would function if ownership were destroyed. He may not have even been trying to destroy ownership, just to describe how weak its position really was. Our interpretation of Marx is almost entirely seen through the lens of the Twentieth Century. And that particularly through the actions of those political bodies which claimed to adhere to Marx's teachings. Some even go so far as to say that the labor movement in Capitalist countries was also an extension of Marx's teachings. One thing that Marx did see, and get right, is that there is evolution at work within these things. So, what did the US defeat when it "defeated Communism?" Did it defeat the evolutionary processes, or did it defeat the interpretation of Marx which said that confiscation and hair shirt sharing, except for the elites, was a viable answer for humanity?

As far as the Democrats go, I think some of them do think they can confiscate and it will work out pretty well. They base that upon the measure of wealth that exists under the current reaction to the state of evolution, which hoards wealth among a small set of privileged at the top. Everyone and everything else is a tool. But the wealthy people seem to have forgotten that even tools sometimes need sharpening, among other forms of maintenance. The US can't keep refusing to invest in itself, believing that the free market will take care of that. Favor for that investment is a much better ground, I think, for the Democrats to stake out. The free market has moved in reaction to peak oil, but way too late. And it is beginning to move in reaction to climate change, but even later to that party. What I see is an obstinate refusal to see Capitalism as having any other form than the absolute black and white version of the Republican Party. It's the post Cold War victory party view of Capitalism. I think the US is stuck in that moment, even with its exposure to the advances which have come about after that actual time was past, and the contribution of countries like China which have proven so integral to the success of those advances. I think the US is stuck in an end of history moment. That's the mindset which will now come to bear upon Venezuela. Whether it's through intrigue or outright conflict the US is going to engage them from that point of view. I wonder what will happen?

[Ibon]

What I see is an obstinate refusal to see Capitalism as having any other form than the absolute black and white version of the Republican Party. It's the post Cold War victory party view of Capitalism. I think the US is stuck in that moment, even with its exposure to the advances which have come about after that actual time was past, and the contribution of countries like China which have proven so integral to the success of those advances. I think the US is stuck in an end of history moment.

Excellent comment. The Republican party is stuck in this dogmatic defense of capitalism which allows no shades of gray, it's all black or white. It seems to be creating on the left a dogmatic counterpart as well which does not bode well.

In how this is relevant to Venezuela? Well, Evilgenius mentioned that it is less about Marxism and more about $ 30 dollar oil that has caused the problem. Yeah $30 oil has weakened the socialist state no doubt. But there is something deeper to understand regarding Venezuela and for that you have to go back before Maduro and Chavez...

Prior to the rise of the left Venezuela had the highest disparity of wealth in the Southern hemisphere after Brazil, a deeply corrupt oligarchy, an underclass permanently disenfranchised by the corrupt accesses of the very wealthy.

Well, in the United States of 3rd World America where corporate lobbyists make corruption legal, we are creating the same permanent disenfranchisement of a broad underclass. The consequence of this will be a growing percentage of the electorate that will resonate with extreme socialist ideology.

This is the danger with the extreme dogmatic position Republicans take toward capitalism. It allows for no critical reform, it keeps the embedded corruption of corporate lobbyists having far to much influence in politics in everything from health care to bank reform to the price of drugs to the cost of your cable and internet subscription.

What will cause the rise of a socialist America is not the Democrats leading the way but rather reacting to a dogmatic corrupt Republican position.

You know we will be making some progress away from this dangerous split when you see Republicans join Democrats in a common cause to reduce the influence of corporate lobbyists in politics.

I think actually this may well happen, maybe not quite as the major theme of the next presidential election but perhaps it will..... Never underestimate what is cooking to a boiling point in the unconscious of the collective.

My biggest concern though is what appears to be deep deep apathy in the electorate at large. A passive acceptance of the status quo. A lack of belief that reform is possible. It seems like American citizens are drugged into being passive and dumb.

Why is there so little heat in the US electorate... Why the complacency? Is it fructose corn syrup? It is Facebook?
The American public is pathetic frankly in how they demand almost nothing of the rigged system that allows corporate lobbyists to set the agenda.

[Newfie]

The American Public is fat and entertained. This no revolution.

[vtsnowedin]

The median income in the US is $59K. Unemployment is at 3.8% and gas cost $2.75 a gallon. There is nothing to revolt about.

[Revi]

The median income in the US is $59K. Unemployment is at 3.8% and gas cost $2.75 a gallon. There is nothing to revolt about.

True, but out here on the periphery things are not so hunky dory. We have a huge homeless population in our town, which is the county seat of the poorest county in Maine. It's a kind of refugee center for the rest of the county. The forest economy is going down, with not much to replace it. A nearby town just lost it's paper mill, and people are slowly drifting away. The remnants of the opiate epidemic are still around, and spring is just starting to happen. I really don't know what's going to happen to Maine.

The country as a whole is doing okay, but there are signs that a recession is on the way. That might require a distraction. A good old fashioned resource war may perk some things up, if our creditors let us do it!

[Newfie]

Revi,

They built the coliseum in Rome because that’s were the rabble were. Now we have the internet to distribute the entertainment to wherever the rabble is.

Opioids just keep the rabble quiet while they slip away.

3.8% unemployment is just 8% unemployment if you take out all the ones who have given up looking.

Obese people don’t riot, even if they are eating nothing but corn syrup.

Why am I posting this? Damn. Depressing.

[Ibon]

Revi,

They built the coliseum in Rome because that’s were the rabble were. Now we have the internet to distribute the entertainment to wherever the rabble is.

Opioids just keep the rabble quiet while they slip away.

3.8% unemployment is just 8% unemployment if you take out all the ones who have given up looking.

Obese people don’t riot, even if they are eating nothing but corn syrup.

Why am I posting this? Damn. Depressing.

Counter intuitively, it is when we see growing numbers slipping away that the healing occurs. As long as over 95% of the juggernaut of humanity remains well fed and healthy we aren't going to change the trajectory of fucking up our planet.

[Revi]

Revi,

They built the coliseum in Rome because that’s were the rabble were. Now we have the internet to distribute the entertainment to wherever the rabble is.

Opioids just keep the rabble quiet while they slip away.

3.8% unemployment is just 8% unemployment if you take out all the ones who have given up looking.

Obese people don’t riot, even if they are eating nothing but corn syrup.

Why am I posting this? Damn. Depressing.

Agreed.

[Revi]

Hello! Did you hear what's going on in Venezuela? Guaido is saying that there is a coup happening. Anybody have an opinion about it?

[onlooker]

Hello! Did you hear what's going on in Venezuela? Guaido is saying that there is a coup happening. Anybody have an opinion about it?

Yes, simple they have lots of oil. Our oil companies want that oil to sell mainly to the West. Business as usual as the powerful countries exploit the weaker ones. The coup failed. Russia had a hand in that.

[Cog]

Hello! Did you hear what's going on in Venezuela? Guaido is saying that there is a coup happening. Anybody have an opinion about it?

If Guaido is just another socialist of a different flavor, then its irrelevant whether he assumes power or Maduro retains it. Venezuela is doomed unless it abandons socialism. Now would I mind if a few Russian and Cuban military advisors were crucified in the public square? Nope and I'd have a few brews to celebrate. I don't support an overt US military response but I'm ok with causing whatever chaos we can create with the Venezuelan military by covert means.

It is in the US national interest that Cuban, Russian, and Chinese influence be removed from Venezuela.

[rockdoc123]

Yes, simple they have lots of oil. Our oil companies want that oil to sell mainly to the West.

Not this BS again. As has been pointed out previously the oil that has been exported from Venezuela to the US is heavy or a blend of heavy and medium. The amount that the US imports from Venezuela remained in the 20,000 to 40,000 bopd through the nineties and up until the recession. Since then the inept handling of Venezuela's oil fields by Chavez and then Madura resulted in less and less production and ever decreasing imports from Venezuela. The US has no need for Venezuela oil, they can get all the heavy oil they will ever need from Canada by simply debottlenecking some pipelines. Currently, they do not need that heavy oil, even with Venezuela imports being at an all-time low.

This is the same lefty nonsense that was espoused over the Iraq war with the righteous left claiming the war was all about oil and that the US wanted Iraq oil for themselves. As it turned out no US company gained a concession from Iraq post-war whereas BP, Total and other European companies did. If the US was so enthralled with Iraq oil then why did they end up with none of it? Answer is...it was never about the oil.

The law in Venezuela has oil owned by the State. Foreign companies can participate in the industry (at least they could before Chavez started to re-nationalize the industry) but they cannot own the oil. They could have the right to lift oil and sell it if they desired but at no point would they be able to repatriate those molecules back to the US. They would be forced to sell to the open market.